mcm daily market update 03.Dec.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and set up both bullish and bearish EE. And we noted that breakout/down of those levels would be telling. The market initially broke down the bullish EE, which led to a decline that tested Wednesday's lows. That test coincided with an unconfirmed low set up on FGSI and buyers managed to step in there are arrest the decline. They tested ML, which rejected the 1st time, but then managed to hold yet another higher low and won ML back the 2nd time around and managed to hold above until the close.

The o/n saw price coming back to test ML once more. We even broke below it, but buyers managed to step in and stick save it close by and then won it back. ML got tested once more and this time buyers managed to make a higher low. Sellers are inefficient on FGSI and the 2nd decline to ML triggered a bullish EE lvl. The problem is that also buyers look inefficient on FGSI, so the trens is neutral. ML is the big line in the sand for the trend. Buyers need to keep holding above it to have hopes at more upside.

mcm daily market update 29.Nov.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a potential bottoming attempt. The market obliged and buyers made a decent effort going into the RTH open, but failed to take out the important bearish EE level on FGSI just below 4660. That failure was pretty ugly and led to another 50+ points drop until the close.

Sunday saw a big bounce off that close at the lows as the news driven scare from Friday aleviated somewhat and the market got right back to Friday's bounce high (near 4640). Buyers couldn't push through and today we retested that area twice and rejected every time. What is more problematic is the fact that buyers have exhibited continued inefficiency on the bounces into that area, last bounce making a lower high in price, but a higher high in FGSI, hitting extreme optimism zone. Sellers are also inefficient on dips, which makes the near term trend neutral. When a bigger trend change happens it is normal to see initial indecision on FGSI with both sides being inefficient, so this could still be part of the bottoming process. For that to happen buyers would need to break through 4640 area soon (ML is also in its vicinity now) and then 4660. If they can take out those 2 levels, Friday's low would start to look like an important bottom. On the other side, sellers need to hold 4640 (ideally) and break Friday's low. That was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI, so it is VERY important.

mcm daily market update 26.Nov.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Wednesday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and set up both bullish and bearish EE. Those levels were mentioned as important for breakout/down. The market dropped on the RTH to test the bullish EE level and held it narrowly, proceeding afterwards into a big bounce that took out the bearish EE level. They definitely won the battle when they held the bearish EE level.

Yesterday saw buyer euphoria continue as the market ramped another 20 points above Wednesday's high. It then started dripping lower very slowly before it picked up speed and outright crashed. From top to bottom we travelled more than 120 points. We do have now a potential bottoming zone. For the 1st time since this big decline started buyers have been building higher lows, despite bearish EE showing up on FGSI. And they have also started to whipsaw danny, which has kept a lid on bounces since near 4700. Buyers are not out of the woods yet, as they have been unable to hold above danny, while FGSI still has bearish EE vs a level that is almost 40 points higher. Nevertheless the fact that danny is no longer capping price is a 1st warning buyers are attempting to bounce back. If they can win back also 400bar MA, then that would be additional confirmation of a bigger low in the works. Buyers need to start holding danny as support in order to avoid a potential run to a lower low.

mcm daily market update 22.Nov.21

ST Trend: neutral (potential reversal of uptrend underway)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, as price had reversed lower off an unconfirmed high on both FGSI and IGSI and broke below ML. We did mention that FGSI hit extreme pessimism and bounced into a ML back-test that rejected price. Buyers then defended the initial low and managed to win back ML and stage an impressive rally in the 1st part of the RTH session. The usual OPEX whipsaws then started to kick in and we dropped very quickly into a retest of the o/n lows, before buyers stepped in to defend that level.

Sunday and today's morning session saw a continued up grind putting some decent distance to Friday's afternoon low. However price stopped again near Friday's RTH high and reversed strongly. FGSI hit extreme optimism there too. Now price is testing ML in earnest and also broke the 1st bullish EE lvl on FGSI. These are worrying developments for buyers because if ML is lost, the edge will go to the sellers. They need to step in quickly to avoid a potential break of Friday's lows.

mcm daily market update 19.Nov.21

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. Sellers took the lead early after the RTH session started and accelerated lower to break the bullish EE level. The market found support at extreme pessimism on FGSI and helped by a Seller Exhaustion and buyers were able to stage a V-shaped bottom from there to finish back near the highs.

The o/n saw a continuation of the bounce as buyers pushed the price almost ~20 points higher. That high was stubbornly unconfirmed by both FGSI and IGSI and once price failed to hold danny and 400bar MA we started the rollercoaster down again. Buyers also lost ML, which is particularly bad. We did hit extreme pessimism on FGSI again and buyers staged a bounce into a ML back-test, which rejected price. It is OPEX today so wild whipsaws in both directions are to be expected. ML remains important for the trend, so where price settles in relation to it will be telling.

mcm daily market update 15.Nov.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as price was stuck in a range and both sides were showing inefficiency on FGSI. We had both bullish and bearish EE at the ends of the chop range, and mentioned that breakout would be telling. ML was also close by and that also provided nice clues. Price chopped around in the range for a bit more and off the cash opened dipped below ML slightly. However buyers were able to stop very close and once they broke back above ML there was no looking back.

Buyers continued to dominate on Sunday, making new highs above Friday. Today we had the usual pullback from the Sunday high, but buyers stepped in quickly to buy the dip and we made another high vs that one. So buyers are in control, as sellers continue to look inefficient on pullbacks. We do have IGSI stubbornly refusing to confirm the highs and FGSI setting up another locally unconfirmed high, so there is the potential for a reversal. The important TT lines (danny, 400bar MA and ML) must give way though. So far danny held support, which limited pullbacks. Once danny finally gives way, 400bar MA is the next inflection. A ML back-test could happen if 400bar MA also fails and if it does, that would be the big decision point. As long as price is above ML - buyers have the edge and this can continue to push higher.

mcm daily market update 12.Nov.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was up, as sellers continued to be inefficient on pullbacks, while buyers had managed to win back ML. We did mention that ML is the key for the trend and that proved to be important. ML was lost early after the cash session started, which was a warning buyers are losing control. Sellers were not able to take advantage of that though and we spent the rest of the day in a sideways chop.

The o/n didn't bring much change. Both sides are inefficient (via FGSI) and we continue to chop sideways, just like in yesterday's cash session. ML is still overhead and rejected price several times - again, just like yesterday. ML continues to be the key level and if buyers manage to win it back, that breakout would be significant. The breakout must be sustained, a head-fake above ML which fades back below would actually be very bearish. So keep an eye on ML and how price acts around it. Given the sideways chop yesterday, today should bring a bigger move. ML should tell us if it will be up or down.

mcm daily market update 8.Nov.21

ST Trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was (still) up, as sellers were very inefficient on FGSI. We also mentioned that the important lines on TTs would provide important clues when a reversal would finally show up. The market ended up pushing another ~30 points higher from our post, before finally reaching exhaustion and pulling back for the rest of the session. Once danny was broken on TTs, it was a clear sign a pullback is coming. The pullback was also 30+ points, after which the buyers managed to bounce into the close.

The action on Sunday and today in the am doesn't look very promising for buyers. Despite the news of the infrastructure bill passing over the w/e, price continued to consolidate in a limited range. It tested ML and bounced, but not convincingly and is still below the bounce high from Friday. Buyers also printed a bearish EE vs that high which held. On the other hand, sellers continue to show inefficiency on FGSI so considering that ML did hold, buyers still get the benefit of the doubt. If the bearish EE gets broken, that would be confirmation of more upside. If it continues to hold and we break below ML, that would be a sign a bigger pullback is in the cards.

mcm daily market update 1.Nov.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as despite earnings misses from 2 heavyweights (AMZN and AAPL), the decline was contained. Price just came to test ML and sellers were unable to push too much below it. FGSI was showing both bullish and bearish EE in a sign that the ST trend was up for grabs. We did note that a breakout/down of that EE would signal that one side is taking control and that side was the buyers. As soon as 4575 broke, buyers pushed strongly and finished at the highs (new ATHs).

Sunday saw a continuation of the up move, with new highs being reached. We had an unconfirmed high on FGSI and pullback from there. That pullback was bought today and we are currently at new highs and ATHs again. FGSI is showing the "up squeeze" set up, as it's declining fast off extreme optimism, while the danny line is holding as support and price keeps making higher highs.

So the ST trend remains up, despite the ST overbought condition. The 1st signs that it will let up will be a failure of danny to hold price. Next support below that is 400bar MA and below that ML. We do have FOMC starting its 2 days meeting tomorrow and announcing its decision on Wednesday, so that will definitely be an inflection point timing wise.

mcm daily market update 25.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was still up as sellers continued to be inefficient on eachpullback, while buyers kept pushing to higher highs. After the cash market opened we saw an initial drop, then a push to a new high, which was unconfirmed on FGSI and which was afterwards quickly reversed. The ensuing decline was very steep as we dropped 35 points in a vertical drop, before buyers stepped back in on extreme pessimism on FGSI and a 2nd sequential SE on TTs which also had an Xtick. That nailed the low for Friday and the market bounced right into the cash close.

Sunday saw a drop from those highs until FGSI hit again extreme pessimism zone (just barely), where buyers stepped in again and pushed price back right to the closing highs from Friday. The o/n today showed clearly that sellers are very inefficient (via FGSI) as every drop generated a big move in FGSI and as a consequence was quickly bought back up. It seems that the market is waiting for the cash session to decide on a clear direction. Above the ATH touched early on Friday and buyers could push another 15-20 points before finding resistance. As long as the ATH holds as resistance, sellers have a shot at pushing directly towards Friday's lows. Both TTs and FGSI currently give the upper hand to the buyers as all important lines on TTs (danny, 400bar MA and ML) are below price, while FGSI keeps showing sellers are very inefficient. So unless sellers step in on the cash open, we could see another push higher.

mcm daily market update 22.Oct.21

ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We were also mentioning that a ML breakdown was avoided by buyers and as long as that lvl continued to be defended, the buyers would continue to have the edge. And a break back above 400bar MA would suggest a run to the ATHs. That is exactly what came to pass. ML was defended twice during the cash session, 2nd time a SE also came to the rescue and buyers pushed from there right into a new ATH.

The o/n saw a choppy sideways session with initial pullback being bought and then price finally pushing to new highs. Buyers continue to hold the upper hand as the potential topping patterns on the GSIs keep getting busted. We are in a giant up squeeze since 13th of October, with very limited pullbacks, so once this momentum fails, the snap-back could be quite violent. However until ML fails in a sustained way, the main trend is still up and no reversal is confirmed.

mcm daily market update 11.Oct.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. The session on Friday didn't do much to clarify things and we had a sideways chop day, but which did finish near the lows. Sunday saw prolonged weakness as price made significant new lows and tested the 4350 ES area.

Buyers did stage a decent bounce off those lows (FGSI had reached extreme pessimism), but the bounce looks weak and was subsequently sold. We did get a ML back-test which rejected price strongly, so things look pretty grim for buyers. We are at extreme pessimism again on FGSI, if they can step in again, then danny would be the 1st line to watch. Above that 400bar MA and, of course, ML is THE key line in the sand. Only if buyers manage to win back ML will the bearish character change. Otherwise the sellers would have the edge.

mcm daily market update 8.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the trend was up with a potential topping pattern, as we had just finished an up squeeze and buyers were showing early signs of being inefficient. Buyers pushed higher after a whipsaw just before the cash open and we had yet another squeeze higher, before buyer finally exhausted themselves and we had a pullback in the 2nd part of the day.

The o/n saw no resolution. We kept whipsawing aroudn the same levels close to the cash close from yesterday. Buyers did manage to defend ML so far, but were not able to push price back higher. FGSI is showing that both sides are inefficient, so the ST trend is up for grabs. ML continues to be the key line in the sand for the ST trend, so on which side of ML price will settle after the cash open will be telling. Yesterday's HOD is important on the upside, while ML is a must watch on the downside.

mcm daily market update 1.Oct.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We did note however that after buyers had won ML in the o/n, the decline off extreme optimism on FGSI saw ML being lost again. That was a warning the trend shift (back to up) was not confirming. The cash open saw ML being tested from below again, but it held as a brick wall and we got a big down day. The bounce attempt from noon was sold off hard into the close and cash session closed at the lows again.

This time however it seems the weak cash close was no longer a bear trap. The bounce off the weak close was VERY weak, and FGSI kept showing that buyers were inefficient on each bounce attempt. And each one was then sold off to new lows. Which brings us to the current set-up. The trend is clearly down, however we do have the potential in place for a bigger bottom. The last low was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And even though the initial bounce off there generated yet another bearish EE which held, this time sellers couldn't push price to a new low. 1st step for buyers to do to confirm the attempted bottom would be to break the bearish EE level. After that the all-important ML test will likely be the next big inflection. As long as ML is overhead, the main trend is down, so no big bounce can come until that is won back. Below the unconfirmed low would break the attempted bottom and continue the pattern of lower lows.

mcm daily market update 24.Sep.21

ST trend: down

Yeterday (same every day since Tuesday, actually) we were noting that the ST trend was up and the market delivered. We had a BE Xtick right off the cash open, which was broken out, and there was no looking back after that. The FGSI nicely hinted we could get an up squeeze set-up and that played out text book. The market finally peaked in the 2nd part of the day, also text-book for the FGSI up squeeze set-up, only after FGSI turned back up to mark an unconfirmed high.

From the unconfirmed high, the market pulled back pretty strongly, bounced, but the bounce showed buyers were inefficient and after that sellers took control. They broke to new lows and ran price into a ML test. A pullback to ML would be the normal expectation after an up squeeze set up, however it is a bit concerning that ML did not hold cleanly. Buyers had a decently bullish set up going into the ML test. We had bullish EE on both FGSI and IGSI, FGSI was at extreme pessimism (green zone). So they should have held ML more cleanly. But they didn't and this looks more like a breakdown with rejections at the back-test attempts. FGSI is showing buyers are inefficient, so the ST trend is down for now. Price is still in the vicinity of ML, so not all is lost for buyers. They can still stick save this, but they need to win back ML. And whatever they do, they MUST defend the bullish EE lvl on FGSI (it is at the same lvl also on IGSI, so double importance). If that lvl goes, then that would be seriously concerning for the up trend.

mcm daily market update 20.Sep.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as buyers were in the middle of a bounce from bullish EE on FGSI. They failed at the retest of the prior high and then kept painting bearish EE on each bounce, and they all held and pushed price lower. Those were clear indications that sellers are stepping back up. The cash open spike did the same, with a bearish EE forming which held. After that there was no looking back. Sellers sliced through ML and they were in control throughout the session. On Sunday we had continuation to the downside, as a feeble attempt at a bounce saw bearish EE forming and then lower lows.

The o/n session of today continued to show weakness. Bounces were small but leading to large FGSI moves. Danny kept rejecting price. With that being said, we do have a double unconfirmed low on FGSI and IGSI. And we do have MGSI in the green zone. These make the POTENTIAL for a bigger bottom. Potential is the key word. Buyers need to prove themselves by breaking above key lines (momo, danny, 400bar MA and eventually ML) and also break bearish EE levels on FGSI/IGSI. 3 additional things to mention:

  1. This is the same set-up on FGSI/IGSI/MGSI which we had at prior 2 OPEX dates. While "this time could be different", it's worth keeping in mind what happened last time.
  2. We are overshooting the 50DMA on daily and the lower BB. At least a snap-back bounce is probable. Reaction to that, especially if price retest ML, will be key for the trend.
  3. FOMC starts its 2 day meeting tomorrow, with the announcement coming on Wed evening.

mcm daily market update 13.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as buyers managed to win back ML and sellers were also looking inefficient via FGSI. The cash open saw another BE (buyer exhaustion) early on and price was rejected very strongly there. Buyers lost ML which was the confirmation that the sellers are winning back control. Then the market flushed to new lows. Friday, unusual for a weekly close, ended the cash session at the lows.

We were noting that such a close is usually a bear trap, and it seems the market is confirming this hypothesis. Sunday saw a failed atttempted bounce and Friday's lows were tested again this morning early on. However that set up a 2nd consecutive unconfirmed low on FGSI in the extreme pessimism (green) zone. And buyers stepped in there and bounced hard. Sellers were very inefficient on the 1st pullback and buyers pushed higher again and won back ML. So again the trend is back to neutral. We have bearish EE set up, but also sellers are inefficient. So no confirmation either way. ML is the key level and price is above, so buyers have a slight edge here, but they MUST defend ML. If ML is lost, things can run south quickly, as we saw on Friday.

mcm daily market update 10.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

The last 2 days we were noting that the trend was down with potential bottoming attempts. Both times sellers took control and broke through those bottoming attempts to make lower lows. We again had an unconfirmed low on FGSI (so potential bottoming attempt) yesterday heading into the cash close and buyers stepped in there with what now looks like more determination vs prior 2 times.

The o/n saw buyers win back ML (a big step towards restoring the up trend) and break the 1st bearish EE lvl set up. What is more important is that sellers are inefficient on pullbacks, setting up bullish EE, which started to hold. That is a chance in character and a warning to sellers that this time the buyers could mean business. Buyers are not out of the woods yet as the trend now is only neutral. They need to continue to hold the bullish EE levels and also to defend ML. If they can hold price above ML and continue to build on bullish EE levels, then they could shift the trend back to up.

mcm daily market update 07.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up as sellers were inefficient on pullbacks, however did warn that if ML is broken, the bullish trend would come under question. Sellers did manage to break below ML initially and pushed price lower, but once FGSI reached extreme pessimism, buyers stepped back in. They bounced nicely to close about 10 points off the ATH going into the long w/e. On Sunday the market pulled back again, with FGSI reaching once more extreme pessimism and again buyers stepped in to push priceon the holiday Monday close to the ATH.

From the area close to the ATH we saw yet another pullback and FGSI bottomed here at extreme pessimism again. Buyers stepped in to buy this, however FGSI is showing they are inefficient. Additionally price is below ML, so for now, it looks like sellers have the upper hand in the Short Term. We still have bullish EE vs last time FGSI was at extreme pessimism, so if buyers manage to win back ML, then the odds would shift again. ML remains the key for the near term trend.

mcm daily market update 27.Aug.21

ST trend: down with bottoming attempt

Yesterday was the first down trend day in a while. Sellers managed to break below ML, decline stopped on a SE Xtick, but the bounce off there stopped on the ML back-test and price was rejected there. ML acting like that meant the ST trend was down and that's exactly what we got, as the market acted weak and closed at the lows.

The o/n saw price make another low, which was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And buyers finally stepped in there and are attempting to bottom this decline. They managed to win back ML and if they can hold above and continue to bounce, the bottom might be in for the ST. There are bearish EE set-ups on both FGSI and IGSI, so holding ML is key. Buyers need to hold aboev and break the bearish EE lvls. Sellers on the other hand need to break below ML and break the unconfirmed lows.

mcm daily market update 23.Aug.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as in the o/n (ES was at 4385 at the time), both sides were looking inefficient via FGSI. We did warn however that "A sustained move above ML would reassure that the bottoming attempt from yesterday is playing out and the "OPEX scare" is over". Buyers did exactly that, broke the bearish EE lvl, won back ML and never looked back. We did not expect a large move considering the OPEX Friday, but apparently MMs were satisfied to keep just the big names (AMZN, AAPL) in check and the index ran regardless.

Sunday brought more bullish developments, as buyers continued the up move and broke the unconfirmed high that was registered on Friday on FGSI. They also broke the initial bearish EE lvl set-up on IGSI on the 1st bounce off the big low from last week. The only issues for buyers are the fact that the recent high is unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI; and FGSI is showing buyers are also inefficient on this bounce. Those things can still change if buyers continue higher, so they still look to be in decent shape. Ideally they would break the unconfirmed highs before getting a retrace to "cool off" FGSI and IGSI. Depending on whether they can do that or not, we will have more info. A ML test from here would be normal (especially since ML was pulled up by price and is likely not far below). The test should hold if this is to continue immediately higher. If ML breaks, then a deeper retrace could come, but in the larger picture it's hard to see how sellers can avoid new ATHs coming.

mcm daily market update 20.Aug.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt. That played out as expected, as buyers stepped in and pushed prices higher, avoiding the most bearish scenarios for the time being. The market rallied hard, pulled back around mid day, then bounced to close the cash session near the highs.

The o/n saw a pullback from there, with a grind lower. FGSI is showing both sides are inefficient, with large swings in both directions, but on small price movements. So the ST trend is up for grabs. Buyers did manage to keep this decently elevated and comfortably above yesterday's lows, which is a positive for them. However ML is still above as buyers couldn't hold the breakout above it from yesterday's session. As long as ML is overhead and acting as resistance, the buyers are not out of the woods. Yesterday's low is a KEY level for buyers to avoid a potential deeper correction. A sustained move above ML would reassure that the bottoming attempt from yesterday is playing out and the "OPEX scare" is over. Speaking of which, being a Friday OPEX, a large move in either direction is probably not going to happen and the market could whipsaw in both directions, but not really make any real price progress by the close. Just something to be aware of.

mcm daily market update 19.Aug.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottom attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down, as price was still below ML and FGSI was showing both sides were inefficient. The market continues to chop between the bearish and bullish EE on FGSI, and even tried to break above ML after the cash market open, but failed to do so. Once the FED minutes were released it tried again to break above ML, but we got a completing signal on TT, with a Buyer Exhaustion (BE) right at that spike high, which was just above ML. It rejected price strongly and even though buyers stepped in after another TT signal (a SE Xtick), the bounce off there made a lower high and then sellers took complete control.

The o/n saw more downside and even lower lows made, which was to be expected given the big confirmed lows on FGSI and IGSI at the cash close yesterday. However now we do have the potential set-up for a meaningful bottom. Both FGSI and IGSI show unconfirmed lows, while MGSI touched the extreme pessimism area (green zone). That is potentially an explosive set-up for upside. The key to this set-up materializing is ML. If buyers manage to break above ML, then sellers need to be careful as a massive face ripping rally could ensue. If ML rejects price, then we might see more downside. Buyers want to defend those unconfirmed lows and avoid them from turning into confirmed lows. On the other hand, sellers must defend ML at all costs to have a shot at lower lows.

mcm daily market update 16.Aug.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up, with potential pullback set-up, as FGSI was at extreme optimism. The pullback was small, then the market pushed to new highs in a very choppy session. It also made a new ATH after hours. The Sunday session saw a pullback from there (the ATH was marked as unconfirmed high on FGSI).

The current o/n saw continuing weakness and what is interesting is that for the first time in a while, the buyers were not able to lift prices back to new highs out of FGSI trips to extreme pessimism. What is more worrying for the buyer side is the fact that 2 unconfirmed lows on FGSI were subsequently broken. That usually marks a shift in market character (i.e.to something more bearish in our case), so it's a big warning that buyers are no longer in full control. ML was also broken by price and now appears to be holding as resistance. That also confirms a more bearish ST picture. Going fwd, it is important to see how price acts in relation to danny and ML. For buyers to get back in control, they must break back above ML. if they can do that, this might be another failed breakdown from seller side. However if ML continues to act as resistance and price continues lower, this might be the 1st trend down day we had in a while. This week is OPEX so shake-outs in both directions are to be expected. Considering that markets are so extended, a bigger pullback would not be out of the question (1st target 4408-4415 - large fractals on 60 and 135min cycles. Below that - 2nd target is 4370-4380 and the bottom of the prior trading range).

mcm daily market update 13.Aug.21

ST trend: up (with potential pullback set-up)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up, with a potential topping pattern, as both FGSI and IGSI were showing unconfirmed highs. The market did pullback from there and even overshot ML for a brief period. FGSI reached extreme pessimism and as usual buyers stepped in there with authority. They won back ML and after that there was no looking back, market going straight to new ATHs.

In the o/n price went sideways and unlike the previous sessions, we had almost no pullback. The new unconfirmed high on FGSI from yesterday' session was broken and ES just made a new ATH. FGSI is at extreme optimism again, so a ST pullback is to be expected, however buyers have been extremely strong and the trend is up, so unless danny or 400bar MA fail to hold as support, it is dangerous to try to anticipate a turn. Once these do fail, it is likely we will see another ML test, but until then - the trend is up.

mcm daily market update 10.Aug.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend is neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. Since then we had spikes higher and lower, but price went basically nowhere. Yesterday's cash session did finish higher vs Sunday's o/n, so up grind is still holding.

The o/n brough the "usual" vertical price drop which pushed FGSI to extreme pessimism, where buyers stepped in. Price went then back to where it used to be. In conclusion, it seems to be "steady as she goes" as price keeps grinding higher with the ocasional steep drop. ML is still below price and being defended, so until sellers can break below and sustain a breakdown the ST trend is up.

mcm daily market update 02.Aug.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down with bottoming attempt. Buyers did manage to hold those unconfirmed lows on FGSI and pushed higher into the cash open, before grinding and giving up some of those gains in the 2nd part of the session.

The o/n from Sunday and today saw buyers stepping in again and pushing prices back to the 4420 area. That zone has been a brick wall of resistance so far, price being rejected every time it got there. Today same thing happened with price dropping abruptly fro mthere right into an ML test. What happens from here is important for the near term. ML is key for the trend, as we keep repeating. Buyers would want to see ML holding and pushing back above danny and 400bar MA to put in a successful ML test. If danny or 400bar MA reject price, then another attack on ML is likely, while an ML breakdown would put sellers in the lead. We do have an unconfirmed high on FGSI at the recent o/n high, so a bigger turn could shape up from here, but it depends on whether ML can be broken on a sustained basis or not.

mcm daily market update 23.Jul.21

ST trend: up (with potential ST pullback)

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was still up, as sellers were inefficient, but were warning that a pullback could be coming to test ML as FGSI was showing an unconfirmed high. That is exactly what happened. The unconfirmed high on FGSI led to a pullback into a ML test. The test held quite comfortably (ES never touched ML, while YM overlapped it briefly) and from there the buyers launched another push higher.

The o/n saw continued upward pressure as buyers kept making higher highs, while sellers were inefficient on pullbacks. The main achievement of the buyers is that now they finally broke the initial bearish EE level on IGSI. They also broke the closer unconfirmed highs on FGSI and turned them into confirmed highs. Price is also very close to the ATH, so the trend is clearly up. For the immediate term, we do have FGSI at extreme optimism, so a pullback could happed anytime from here. However, it depends how price will act on the TT lines (momentum, danny and 400bar MA). As usual, if danny gets broken, then a trip to 400bar MA below would be expected. If that also gets broken, then another ML test might be in the cards. As long as these lines hold, we could continue higher with only shallow pullbacks, depending on how FGSI shapes up. IGSI has a lot of room fwiw.

mcm daily market update 21.Jul.21

ST trend: up (with potential topping pattern)

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was neutral as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. Because of the set up on all ST GSIs (FGSI, IGSI and MGSI) we were mentioning that a bigger low might have formed at Monday's lows and that yesterday's action would be key for the intermediate term. ML being the main line in the sand for the trend. The buyers did everything right after the cash session open. They broke above the opening BE and then simply sliced through ML and never looked back. The breakout was very strong and considering the bigger low potential from Monday, the buyers are now back in control.

The o/n continued to show the buyers are regaining strength. It continued to make new highs and most importanly - the IGSI "reloaded" quickly on a small retrace, triggering a very large bullish EE. With ML below price and continuing to be drawn higher and higher, the sellers need to be careful here and wait for a clear set up before trying to jump back in. We do have FGSI at extreme optimism, so an immediate term pullback could occur from here. Momentum line and danny will be the clues if that will occur, as they would need to give way. So far danny has held support very strongly, so it won't be an easy feat for sellers to pull off. If danny gets broken, an ML test would be expected. That would be the inflection point. There is still a slim chance this face ripping rally off Monday's lows is just a dead cat bounce, but it is getting very slim. Only a break below ML would tilt the odds back towards that bearish scenario. Buyers need to defend ML at all costs, while a green day today would be ideal (follow through to yesterday).

mcm daily market update 20.Jul.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a potential bottoming attempt (as FGSI was showing an unconfirmed low). We did warn that the bottoming attempt was only a potential as if sellers continued to push, that could have been broken. Sellers did just that and continued to break lower almost the entire cash session, until the last 30min when buyers stepped in and staged a larger bounce. The follow through on the downside after Friday's bearish session is a serious warning a larger shift is at hand (from full-on bullish to a bearish stance), so longs do need to be careful here.

The o/n continued higher building on the late bounce from yesterday and a bigger dip showed sellers were inefficient, so the trend went back to neutral. Boths sides are inefficient as shown by FGSI, so the ST trend is up for grabs. A ST bounce after the sell off from the last 2 days should be expected. The only question is if it's just a dead-cat bounce or are buyers ready to step back in with authority. We do have the potential for a big low at yesterday's lows with IGSI and FGSI showing that low to be unconfirmed and MGSI touching extreme pessimism there. So there is a possibility that the correction is done and market runs back higher. However buyers need to prove themselves now, as the last 2 days were showing a change in character with the bounces failing. ML is, as usual, our main line in the sand for the trend. It was decisively broken on Friday and yesterday there was only a feble attempt in the o/n to touch it. So the ST trend was clearly pointing lower. Now this bounce took price right to ML and it's just whipsawing around it. That means the current area is an inflection point. Depending on which side of ML the price will settle will dictate the near term trend. The bullish and bearish EE levels on FGSI will be additional confirmation after that.