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mcm daily market update 25.Apr.22

ST trend: down (with bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down with potential bottoming attempt, as we had the potential for a bottom with FGSI and IGSI showing unconfirmed lows. We warned that "The absolute KEY level for buyers to defend is the o/n low. Below that likely opens up the flood gates again and we could see a repeat of yesterday". Our warning came true, after losing the o/n low, there was no looking back as the flood gates opened again and same type of action as the prior day happened - non-stop selling with little bounce along the way.

Sunday opened even lower (as expected and called out in the chat room on Friday) and we dropped another 40+ points from Friday's close. The o/n today continued even lower. Now we again have the potential for a bottom, as IGSI is not confirming these lows. Price made a double bottom at the o/n low and buyers defended it, staging a bounce, however FGSI is showing buyers are inefficient on this bounce, which is capped by the 400bar MA so far. It looks like we have the same situation as Friday. If the o/n low is broken, then it's possible we will get yet another leg down, similar to Thursday and Friday. If buyers can defend, then we might see a larger bounce, maybe to test ML. Ultimately, it looks like the market has a date with the mid March lows, so the expectation would be for us to see that area before this series of declines stops (at least for a while).

mcm daily market update 25.Feb.22

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down with potential bottoming attempt. At the time we were testing the unconfirmed low on FGSI and it looked like the final low wasn't in yet. But buyers held that low (narrowly) and after the RTH open never looked back. We had a huge up day and TTs showed us that the mkt character changed, as danny held as support all day. Buyers had a huge win reversing the entire large gap, winning back ML and actually ending the day very green. Price finally stopped at the macro-ML test.

The o/n saw the expected pullback to ML, as the mkt was very extended immediate term (FGSI at extreme optimism and sell zones on its chart). Buyers held ML so far, which is constructive for higher prices. For today the situation is pretty straight forward. As long as buyers hold ML, they could continue to push higher immediately. If ML is lost, then a deeper pullback is possible. Buyers do not want to see this heading much lower than 4200, with 4150 being the MUST defend lvl (bullish EE on FGSI vs that level).

mcm daily market update 24.Jan.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, as the market continued to act weak. We also warned that "Large bounces are possible, but are likely to be good selling opportunities, while attempting to buy dips is extra risky. Dust should settle after OPEX, so the timing window for a potential important low would be Monday or Tuesday". That proved to be the case, as the large bounce off the RTH open back-tested ML and was rejected there strongly. Market then fell almost 100 points from that ML test to close near the lows.

On Sunday, buyers managed to step in and push price a bit higher, but then hit a brick wall near 4425 and stopped. Today's o/n action pushed once again in that 4425 lvl and got rejected and proceeded to break Friday's low. We are now in the timing window we considered for a low - today or tomorrow. While it does no seem the low is in yet, another large drop today could reach capitulation on the buyer side and then see a strong bounce. FGSI shows a confirmed low on the last low, so that will likely be taken out before an important bottom is found. We also have FOMC this week and Powel speaking on Wednesday, after the FOMC announcement. That could be a potential catalyst for another trendy move. So for now the ST trend (as well as the main trend) is down. Play accordingly until the market shows us a change in that character.

mcm daily market update 12.Nov.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was up, as sellers continued to be inefficient on pullbacks, while buyers had managed to win back ML. We did mention that ML is the key for the trend and that proved to be important. ML was lost early after the cash session started, which was a warning buyers are losing control. Sellers were not able to take advantage of that though and we spent the rest of the day in a sideways chop.

The o/n didn't bring much change. Both sides are inefficient (via FGSI) and we continue to chop sideways, just like in yesterday's cash session. ML is still overhead and rejected price several times - again, just like yesterday. ML continues to be the key level and if buyers manage to win it back, that breakout would be significant. The breakout must be sustained, a head-fake above ML which fades back below would actually be very bearish. So keep an eye on ML and how price acts around it. Given the sideways chop yesterday, today should bring a bigger move. ML should tell us if it will be up or down.

mcm daily market update 1.Oct.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We did note however that after buyers had won ML in the o/n, the decline off extreme optimism on FGSI saw ML being lost again. That was a warning the trend shift (back to up) was not confirming. The cash open saw ML being tested from below again, but it held as a brick wall and we got a big down day. The bounce attempt from noon was sold off hard into the close and cash session closed at the lows again.

This time however it seems the weak cash close was no longer a bear trap. The bounce off the weak close was VERY weak, and FGSI kept showing that buyers were inefficient on each bounce attempt. And each one was then sold off to new lows. Which brings us to the current set-up. The trend is clearly down, however we do have the potential in place for a bigger bottom. The last low was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And even though the initial bounce off there generated yet another bearish EE which held, this time sellers couldn't push price to a new low. 1st step for buyers to do to confirm the attempted bottom would be to break the bearish EE level. After that the all-important ML test will likely be the next big inflection. As long as ML is overhead, the main trend is down, so no big bounce can come until that is won back. Below the unconfirmed low would break the attempted bottom and continue the pattern of lower lows.

mcm daily market update 5.Mar.21

ST trend: neutral (with bearish risk)

It seems the market stopped tipping its hand in the o/n session and keeps things in suspense until the cash market open. For several days we were noting that the trend was neutral as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI in the o/n session. Yesterday the buyers staged an attack over ML to get us back to an uptrend, but failed just above as the markets were disappointed by Powel's remarks. Funny how that works. So just to mention this again: ML is a KEY level for the overall trend. If price is above, we have a bullish bias, while if price is below - bearish.

In the o/n, both buyers and sellers were inefficient, as the market still tries to digest the mini-crash off Powel's statements. We have bearish EE above which held price action and pushed it lower and now bullish EE set up with FGSI bouncing from extreme pessimism. Those levels remain important and a breach would mean one side is getting the upper hand. Buyers want to hold the bullish EE and ideally to break back above ML. That would help them and could trigger a "relief rally". Sellers want to make a stand at (or below) ML and try to attack yesterday's LOD. Breaking the bullish EE level would help them significantly.

e-Tick Tools

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e-Tick Tools is a proprietary approach and technology that enables an unprecedented and in-depth analysis of exhaustive and emotional behavior in key markets. e-Tick Tools is fundamentally different from other analysis. It is not designed to analyze a series of prices, but rather analyze market facts, behavior, and events. The toolset represents its detailed analysis of key prices and confirmation feedback at key event-driven areas of significance. The results are unparalleled and enlightening: The methodology generates relatively few signals/data points but highly relevant and revealing real-time feedback.

e-Tick Tools Livestream gives you access to real-time charts and signals with spoken alerts from your PC, Mac, Linux, iOS, or Android.

e-Tick Tools Notifications delivers text alerts via the mcm Proprietary App to your mobile phone and or email.

Access from your PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android

e-Tick Tools provides a unique edge to view and interpret the markets, and is accessible so individual traders/firms can flexibly load it on multiple platforms.

Tick Tools and its supporting applications are formidable tools calculated on our servers - the tools require significant server resources for real-time calculation - this requires databases to be maintained, referenced and updated on an ongoing real-time basis to function correctly.

This is why we implemented a web distribution mechanism and maintain the data & the supporting databases, feeds, upgrades, and hardware requirements behind the scenes to that all these analytics can still accessed even on an iPhone or on your laptop/trading workstation.

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e-Tick Tools

e-Tick Tools

Get Inside The Market

e-Tick Tools is a proprietary approach and technology that enables an unprecedented and in-depth analysis of exhaustive and emotional behavior in key markets. e-Tick Tools is fundamentally different from other analysis. It is not designed to analyze a series of prices, but rather analyze market facts, behavior, and events. The toolset represents its detailed analysis of key prices and confirmation feedback at key event-driven areas of significance. The results are unparalleled and enlightening: The methodology generates relatively few signals/data points but highly relevant and revealing real-time feedback.

e-Tick Tools Livestream gives you access to real-time charts and signals with spoken alerts from your PC, Mac, Linux, iOS, or Android.

e-Tick Tools Notifications delivers text alerts via the mcm Proprietary App to your mobile phone and or email.

Access from your PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android

e-Tick Tools provides a unique edge to view and interpret the markets, and is accessible so individual traders/firms can flexibly load it on multiple platforms.

Tick Tools and its supporting applications are formidable tools calculated on our servers - the tools require significant server resources for real-time calculation - this requires databases to be maintained, referenced and updated on an ongoing real-time basis to function correctly.

This is why we implemented a web distribution mechanism and maintain the data & the supporting databases, feeds, upgrades, and hardware requirements behind the scenes to that all these analytics can still accessed even on an iPhone or on your laptop/trading workstation.

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