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mcm daily market update 23.Aug.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as in the o/n (ES was at 4385 at the time), both sides were looking inefficient via FGSI. We did warn however that "A sustained move above ML would reassure that the bottoming attempt from yesterday is playing out and the "OPEX scare" is over". Buyers did exactly that, broke the bearish EE lvl, won back ML and never looked back. We did not expect a large move considering the OPEX Friday, but apparently MMs were satisfied to keep just the big names (AMZN, AAPL) in check and the index ran regardless.

Sunday brought more bullish developments, as buyers continued the up move and broke the unconfirmed high that was registered on Friday on FGSI. They also broke the initial bearish EE lvl set-up on IGSI on the 1st bounce off the big low from last week. The only issues for buyers are the fact that the recent high is unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI; and FGSI is showing buyers are also inefficient on this bounce. Those things can still change if buyers continue higher, so they still look to be in decent shape. Ideally they would break the unconfirmed highs before getting a retrace to "cool off" FGSI and IGSI. Depending on whether they can do that or not, we will have more info. A ML test from here would be normal (especially since ML was pulled up by price and is likely not far below). The test should hold if this is to continue immediately higher. If ML breaks, then a deeper retrace could come, but in the larger picture it's hard to see how sellers can avoid new ATHs coming.

mcm daily market update 13.Aug.21

ST trend: up (with potential pullback set-up)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up, with a potential topping pattern, as both FGSI and IGSI were showing unconfirmed highs. The market did pullback from there and even overshot ML for a brief period. FGSI reached extreme pessimism and as usual buyers stepped in there with authority. They won back ML and after that there was no looking back, market going straight to new ATHs.

In the o/n price went sideways and unlike the previous sessions, we had almost no pullback. The new unconfirmed high on FGSI from yesterday' session was broken and ES just made a new ATH. FGSI is at extreme optimism again, so a ST pullback is to be expected, however buyers have been extremely strong and the trend is up, so unless danny or 400bar MA fail to hold as support, it is dangerous to try to anticipate a turn. Once these do fail, it is likely we will see another ML test, but until then - the trend is up.

mcm daily market update 23.Jul.21

ST trend: up (with potential ST pullback)

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was still up, as sellers were inefficient, but were warning that a pullback could be coming to test ML as FGSI was showing an unconfirmed high. That is exactly what happened. The unconfirmed high on FGSI led to a pullback into a ML test. The test held quite comfortably (ES never touched ML, while YM overlapped it briefly) and from there the buyers launched another push higher.

The o/n saw continued upward pressure as buyers kept making higher highs, while sellers were inefficient on pullbacks. The main achievement of the buyers is that now they finally broke the initial bearish EE level on IGSI. They also broke the closer unconfirmed highs on FGSI and turned them into confirmed highs. Price is also very close to the ATH, so the trend is clearly up. For the immediate term, we do have FGSI at extreme optimism, so a pullback could happed anytime from here. However, it depends how price will act on the TT lines (momentum, danny and 400bar MA). As usual, if danny gets broken, then a trip to 400bar MA below would be expected. If that also gets broken, then another ML test might be in the cards. As long as these lines hold, we could continue higher with only shallow pullbacks, depending on how FGSI shapes up. IGSI has a lot of room fwiw.

mcm daily market update 09.Feb.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we also noted that the trend was neutral, because after a prolonged up trend, FGSI was showing that both buyers and sellers were inefficient. We had bullish excess energy (EE) triggering on declines and and bearish EE triggering on bounces. However it was the buyers who took the lead again by breaking the bearish EE level. They also defended the 3886 ES level, which was the breakout of Buyer Exhaustion (BE) Xtick and the Maginot Line (ML) level.

Today FGSI is showing almost the same set-up like yesterday. Sellers are very inefficient, triggering bullish EE on each decline. However also buyers are showing inefficiency on bounces. So the 1st signs of one side taking the lead would be when they manage to break through an oppossing EE and make confirmed lows/highs.