ST trend: up
The market had some wild swings both ways since Friday's close. As the cash market was closed for the holiday on Monday, the algos had some fun, making a lower low on Sunday, then 80-100 points up, down and up again. At the end we are close to Friday's cash close, so for cash traders not much happened, but they missed one heck of a rollercoaster ride.
The low was hit yesterday on a drop to 4250 ES, then buyers stepped in and after a retest of that low in the o/n today, they pushed price 100 points higher and won back ML. That is a significant achievement. Of course, it depends if this time around they can actually hold above, since they managed to spike above it also early on yesterday, before the huge rug pull to new lows. That is the key line in the sand for today. If price holds above ML, we could have a large low in place (cash traders that tried to sell Friday will be very annoyed, no doubt). Adding to that potential is MGSI which hit extreme pessimism (prior trips there triggered large bounces - 150+ points). If ML is lost, then buyers need to be cautious as that could imply another trip to the lows, especially since IGSI is showing bearish EE again (which triggered yesterday's huge sell off). For now buyers have the edge, as price is above ML, they just need to not drop the ball (like yesterday).