mcm daily market update 11.Oct.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. The session on Friday didn't do much to clarify things and we had a sideways chop day, but which did finish near the lows. Sunday saw prolonged weakness as price made significant new lows and tested the 4350 ES area.

Buyers did stage a decent bounce off those lows (FGSI had reached extreme pessimism), but the bounce looks weak and was subsequently sold. We did get a ML back-test which rejected price strongly, so things look pretty grim for buyers. We are at extreme pessimism again on FGSI, if they can step in again, then danny would be the 1st line to watch. Above that 400bar MA and, of course, ML is THE key line in the sand. Only if buyers manage to win back ML will the bearish character change. Otherwise the sellers would have the edge.

mcm daily market update 8.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the trend was up with a potential topping pattern, as we had just finished an up squeeze and buyers were showing early signs of being inefficient. Buyers pushed higher after a whipsaw just before the cash open and we had yet another squeeze higher, before buyer finally exhausted themselves and we had a pullback in the 2nd part of the day.

The o/n saw no resolution. We kept whipsawing aroudn the same levels close to the cash close from yesterday. Buyers did manage to defend ML so far, but were not able to push price back higher. FGSI is showing that both sides are inefficient, so the ST trend is up for grabs. ML continues to be the key line in the sand for the ST trend, so on which side of ML price will settle after the cash open will be telling. Yesterday's HOD is important on the upside, while ML is a must watch on the downside.

mcm daily market update 1.Oct.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We did note however that after buyers had won ML in the o/n, the decline off extreme optimism on FGSI saw ML being lost again. That was a warning the trend shift (back to up) was not confirming. The cash open saw ML being tested from below again, but it held as a brick wall and we got a big down day. The bounce attempt from noon was sold off hard into the close and cash session closed at the lows again.

This time however it seems the weak cash close was no longer a bear trap. The bounce off the weak close was VERY weak, and FGSI kept showing that buyers were inefficient on each bounce attempt. And each one was then sold off to new lows. Which brings us to the current set-up. The trend is clearly down, however we do have the potential in place for a bigger bottom. The last low was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And even though the initial bounce off there generated yet another bearish EE which held, this time sellers couldn't push price to a new low. 1st step for buyers to do to confirm the attempted bottom would be to break the bearish EE level. After that the all-important ML test will likely be the next big inflection. As long as ML is overhead, the main trend is down, so no big bounce can come until that is won back. Below the unconfirmed low would break the attempted bottom and continue the pattern of lower lows.

mcm daily market update 24.Sep.21

ST trend: down

Yeterday (same every day since Tuesday, actually) we were noting that the ST trend was up and the market delivered. We had a BE Xtick right off the cash open, which was broken out, and there was no looking back after that. The FGSI nicely hinted we could get an up squeeze set-up and that played out text book. The market finally peaked in the 2nd part of the day, also text-book for the FGSI up squeeze set-up, only after FGSI turned back up to mark an unconfirmed high.

From the unconfirmed high, the market pulled back pretty strongly, bounced, but the bounce showed buyers were inefficient and after that sellers took control. They broke to new lows and ran price into a ML test. A pullback to ML would be the normal expectation after an up squeeze set up, however it is a bit concerning that ML did not hold cleanly. Buyers had a decently bullish set up going into the ML test. We had bullish EE on both FGSI and IGSI, FGSI was at extreme pessimism (green zone). So they should have held ML more cleanly. But they didn't and this looks more like a breakdown with rejections at the back-test attempts. FGSI is showing buyers are inefficient, so the ST trend is down for now. Price is still in the vicinity of ML, so not all is lost for buyers. They can still stick save this, but they need to win back ML. And whatever they do, they MUST defend the bullish EE lvl on FGSI (it is at the same lvl also on IGSI, so double importance). If that lvl goes, then that would be seriously concerning for the up trend.

mcm daily market update 20.Sep.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as buyers were in the middle of a bounce from bullish EE on FGSI. They failed at the retest of the prior high and then kept painting bearish EE on each bounce, and they all held and pushed price lower. Those were clear indications that sellers are stepping back up. The cash open spike did the same, with a bearish EE forming which held. After that there was no looking back. Sellers sliced through ML and they were in control throughout the session. On Sunday we had continuation to the downside, as a feeble attempt at a bounce saw bearish EE forming and then lower lows.

The o/n session of today continued to show weakness. Bounces were small but leading to large FGSI moves. Danny kept rejecting price. With that being said, we do have a double unconfirmed low on FGSI and IGSI. And we do have MGSI in the green zone. These make the POTENTIAL for a bigger bottom. Potential is the key word. Buyers need to prove themselves by breaking above key lines (momo, danny, 400bar MA and eventually ML) and also break bearish EE levels on FGSI/IGSI. 3 additional things to mention:

  1. This is the same set-up on FGSI/IGSI/MGSI which we had at prior 2 OPEX dates. While "this time could be different", it's worth keeping in mind what happened last time.
  2. We are overshooting the 50DMA on daily and the lower BB. At least a snap-back bounce is probable. Reaction to that, especially if price retest ML, will be key for the trend.
  3. FOMC starts its 2 day meeting tomorrow, with the announcement coming on Wed evening.

mcm daily market update 13.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as buyers managed to win back ML and sellers were also looking inefficient via FGSI. The cash open saw another BE (buyer exhaustion) early on and price was rejected very strongly there. Buyers lost ML which was the confirmation that the sellers are winning back control. Then the market flushed to new lows. Friday, unusual for a weekly close, ended the cash session at the lows.

We were noting that such a close is usually a bear trap, and it seems the market is confirming this hypothesis. Sunday saw a failed atttempted bounce and Friday's lows were tested again this morning early on. However that set up a 2nd consecutive unconfirmed low on FGSI in the extreme pessimism (green) zone. And buyers stepped in there and bounced hard. Sellers were very inefficient on the 1st pullback and buyers pushed higher again and won back ML. So again the trend is back to neutral. We have bearish EE set up, but also sellers are inefficient. So no confirmation either way. ML is the key level and price is above, so buyers have a slight edge here, but they MUST defend ML. If ML is lost, things can run south quickly, as we saw on Friday.

mcm daily market update 10.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

The last 2 days we were noting that the trend was down with potential bottoming attempts. Both times sellers took control and broke through those bottoming attempts to make lower lows. We again had an unconfirmed low on FGSI (so potential bottoming attempt) yesterday heading into the cash close and buyers stepped in there with what now looks like more determination vs prior 2 times.

The o/n saw buyers win back ML (a big step towards restoring the up trend) and break the 1st bearish EE lvl set up. What is more important is that sellers are inefficient on pullbacks, setting up bullish EE, which started to hold. That is a chance in character and a warning to sellers that this time the buyers could mean business. Buyers are not out of the woods yet as the trend now is only neutral. They need to continue to hold the bullish EE levels and also to defend ML. If they can hold price above ML and continue to build on bullish EE levels, then they could shift the trend back to up.

mcm daily market update 07.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up as sellers were inefficient on pullbacks, however did warn that if ML is broken, the bullish trend would come under question. Sellers did manage to break below ML initially and pushed price lower, but once FGSI reached extreme pessimism, buyers stepped back in. They bounced nicely to close about 10 points off the ATH going into the long w/e. On Sunday the market pulled back again, with FGSI reaching once more extreme pessimism and again buyers stepped in to push priceon the holiday Monday close to the ATH.

From the area close to the ATH we saw yet another pullback and FGSI bottomed here at extreme pessimism again. Buyers stepped in to buy this, however FGSI is showing they are inefficient. Additionally price is below ML, so for now, it looks like sellers have the upper hand in the Short Term. We still have bullish EE vs last time FGSI was at extreme pessimism, so if buyers manage to win back ML, then the odds would shift again. ML remains the key for the near term trend.

mcm daily market update 27.Aug.21

ST trend: down with bottoming attempt

Yesterday was the first down trend day in a while. Sellers managed to break below ML, decline stopped on a SE Xtick, but the bounce off there stopped on the ML back-test and price was rejected there. ML acting like that meant the ST trend was down and that's exactly what we got, as the market acted weak and closed at the lows.

The o/n saw price make another low, which was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And buyers finally stepped in there and are attempting to bottom this decline. They managed to win back ML and if they can hold above and continue to bounce, the bottom might be in for the ST. There are bearish EE set-ups on both FGSI and IGSI, so holding ML is key. Buyers need to hold aboev and break the bearish EE lvls. Sellers on the other hand need to break below ML and break the unconfirmed lows.

mcm daily market update 23.Aug.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as in the o/n (ES was at 4385 at the time), both sides were looking inefficient via FGSI. We did warn however that "A sustained move above ML would reassure that the bottoming attempt from yesterday is playing out and the "OPEX scare" is over". Buyers did exactly that, broke the bearish EE lvl, won back ML and never looked back. We did not expect a large move considering the OPEX Friday, but apparently MMs were satisfied to keep just the big names (AMZN, AAPL) in check and the index ran regardless.

Sunday brought more bullish developments, as buyers continued the up move and broke the unconfirmed high that was registered on Friday on FGSI. They also broke the initial bearish EE lvl set-up on IGSI on the 1st bounce off the big low from last week. The only issues for buyers are the fact that the recent high is unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI; and FGSI is showing buyers are also inefficient on this bounce. Those things can still change if buyers continue higher, so they still look to be in decent shape. Ideally they would break the unconfirmed highs before getting a retrace to "cool off" FGSI and IGSI. Depending on whether they can do that or not, we will have more info. A ML test from here would be normal (especially since ML was pulled up by price and is likely not far below). The test should hold if this is to continue immediately higher. If ML breaks, then a deeper retrace could come, but in the larger picture it's hard to see how sellers can avoid new ATHs coming.