Posts

mcm daily market update 03.Dec.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and set up both bullish and bearish EE. And we noted that breakout/down of those levels would be telling. The market initially broke down the bullish EE, which led to a decline that tested Wednesday's lows. That test coincided with an unconfirmed low set up on FGSI and buyers managed to step in there are arrest the decline. They tested ML, which rejected the 1st time, but then managed to hold yet another higher low and won ML back the 2nd time around and managed to hold above until the close.

The o/n saw price coming back to test ML once more. We even broke below it, but buyers managed to step in and stick save it close by and then won it back. ML got tested once more and this time buyers managed to make a higher low. Sellers are inefficient on FGSI and the 2nd decline to ML triggered a bullish EE lvl. The problem is that also buyers look inefficient on FGSI, so the trens is neutral. ML is the big line in the sand for the trend. Buyers need to keep holding above it to have hopes at more upside.

mcm daily market update 29.Nov.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a potential bottoming attempt. The market obliged and buyers made a decent effort going into the RTH open, but failed to take out the important bearish EE level on FGSI just below 4660. That failure was pretty ugly and led to another 50+ points drop until the close.

Sunday saw a big bounce off that close at the lows as the news driven scare from Friday aleviated somewhat and the market got right back to Friday's bounce high (near 4640). Buyers couldn't push through and today we retested that area twice and rejected every time. What is more problematic is the fact that buyers have exhibited continued inefficiency on the bounces into that area, last bounce making a lower high in price, but a higher high in FGSI, hitting extreme optimism zone. Sellers are also inefficient on dips, which makes the near term trend neutral. When a bigger trend change happens it is normal to see initial indecision on FGSI with both sides being inefficient, so this could still be part of the bottoming process. For that to happen buyers would need to break through 4640 area soon (ML is also in its vicinity now) and then 4660. If they can take out those 2 levels, Friday's low would start to look like an important bottom. On the other side, sellers need to hold 4640 (ideally) and break Friday's low. That was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI, so it is VERY important.

mcm daily market update 26.Nov.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Wednesday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and set up both bullish and bearish EE. Those levels were mentioned as important for breakout/down. The market dropped on the RTH to test the bullish EE level and held it narrowly, proceeding afterwards into a big bounce that took out the bearish EE level. They definitely won the battle when they held the bearish EE level.

Yesterday saw buyer euphoria continue as the market ramped another 20 points above Wednesday's high. It then started dripping lower very slowly before it picked up speed and outright crashed. From top to bottom we travelled more than 120 points. We do have now a potential bottoming zone. For the 1st time since this big decline started buyers have been building higher lows, despite bearish EE showing up on FGSI. And they have also started to whipsaw danny, which has kept a lid on bounces since near 4700. Buyers are not out of the woods yet, as they have been unable to hold above danny, while FGSI still has bearish EE vs a level that is almost 40 points higher. Nevertheless the fact that danny is no longer capping price is a 1st warning buyers are attempting to bounce back. If they can win back also 400bar MA, then that would be additional confirmation of a bigger low in the works. Buyers need to start holding danny as support in order to avoid a potential run to a lower low.

mcm daily market update 8.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the trend was up with a potential topping pattern, as we had just finished an up squeeze and buyers were showing early signs of being inefficient. Buyers pushed higher after a whipsaw just before the cash open and we had yet another squeeze higher, before buyer finally exhausted themselves and we had a pullback in the 2nd part of the day.

The o/n saw no resolution. We kept whipsawing aroudn the same levels close to the cash close from yesterday. Buyers did manage to defend ML so far, but were not able to push price back higher. FGSI is showing that both sides are inefficient, so the ST trend is up for grabs. ML continues to be the key line in the sand for the ST trend, so on which side of ML price will settle after the cash open will be telling. Yesterday's HOD is important on the upside, while ML is a must watch on the downside.

mcm daily market update 20.Sep.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as buyers were in the middle of a bounce from bullish EE on FGSI. They failed at the retest of the prior high and then kept painting bearish EE on each bounce, and they all held and pushed price lower. Those were clear indications that sellers are stepping back up. The cash open spike did the same, with a bearish EE forming which held. After that there was no looking back. Sellers sliced through ML and they were in control throughout the session. On Sunday we had continuation to the downside, as a feeble attempt at a bounce saw bearish EE forming and then lower lows.

The o/n session of today continued to show weakness. Bounces were small but leading to large FGSI moves. Danny kept rejecting price. With that being said, we do have a double unconfirmed low on FGSI and IGSI. And we do have MGSI in the green zone. These make the POTENTIAL for a bigger bottom. Potential is the key word. Buyers need to prove themselves by breaking above key lines (momo, danny, 400bar MA and eventually ML) and also break bearish EE levels on FGSI/IGSI. 3 additional things to mention:

  1. This is the same set-up on FGSI/IGSI/MGSI which we had at prior 2 OPEX dates. While "this time could be different", it's worth keeping in mind what happened last time.
  2. We are overshooting the 50DMA on daily and the lower BB. At least a snap-back bounce is probable. Reaction to that, especially if price retest ML, will be key for the trend.
  3. FOMC starts its 2 day meeting tomorrow, with the announcement coming on Wed evening.

mcm daily market update 10.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

The last 2 days we were noting that the trend was down with potential bottoming attempts. Both times sellers took control and broke through those bottoming attempts to make lower lows. We again had an unconfirmed low on FGSI (so potential bottoming attempt) yesterday heading into the cash close and buyers stepped in there with what now looks like more determination vs prior 2 times.

The o/n saw buyers win back ML (a big step towards restoring the up trend) and break the 1st bearish EE lvl set up. What is more important is that sellers are inefficient on pullbacks, setting up bullish EE, which started to hold. That is a chance in character and a warning to sellers that this time the buyers could mean business. Buyers are not out of the woods yet as the trend now is only neutral. They need to continue to hold the bullish EE levels and also to defend ML. If they can hold price above ML and continue to build on bullish EE levels, then they could shift the trend back to up.

mcm daily market update 27.Aug.21

ST trend: down with bottoming attempt

Yesterday was the first down trend day in a while. Sellers managed to break below ML, decline stopped on a SE Xtick, but the bounce off there stopped on the ML back-test and price was rejected there. ML acting like that meant the ST trend was down and that's exactly what we got, as the market acted weak and closed at the lows.

The o/n saw price make another low, which was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And buyers finally stepped in there and are attempting to bottom this decline. They managed to win back ML and if they can hold above and continue to bounce, the bottom might be in for the ST. There are bearish EE set-ups on both FGSI and IGSI, so holding ML is key. Buyers need to hold aboev and break the bearish EE lvls. Sellers on the other hand need to break below ML and break the unconfirmed lows.

mcm daily market update 20.Jul.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a potential bottoming attempt (as FGSI was showing an unconfirmed low). We did warn that the bottoming attempt was only a potential as if sellers continued to push, that could have been broken. Sellers did just that and continued to break lower almost the entire cash session, until the last 30min when buyers stepped in and staged a larger bounce. The follow through on the downside after Friday's bearish session is a serious warning a larger shift is at hand (from full-on bullish to a bearish stance), so longs do need to be careful here.

The o/n continued higher building on the late bounce from yesterday and a bigger dip showed sellers were inefficient, so the trend went back to neutral. Boths sides are inefficient as shown by FGSI, so the ST trend is up for grabs. A ST bounce after the sell off from the last 2 days should be expected. The only question is if it's just a dead-cat bounce or are buyers ready to step back in with authority. We do have the potential for a big low at yesterday's lows with IGSI and FGSI showing that low to be unconfirmed and MGSI touching extreme pessimism there. So there is a possibility that the correction is done and market runs back higher. However buyers need to prove themselves now, as the last 2 days were showing a change in character with the bounces failing. ML is, as usual, our main line in the sand for the trend. It was decisively broken on Friday and yesterday there was only a feble attempt in the o/n to touch it. So the ST trend was clearly pointing lower. Now this bounce took price right to ML and it's just whipsawing around it. That means the current area is an inflection point. Depending on which side of ML the price will settle will dictate the near term trend. The bullish and bearish EE levels on FGSI will be additional confirmation after that.

mcm daily market update 18.Jun.21

ST trend: down, with potential bounce attempt

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient, as shown by FGSI (something which is happening quite often in the o/n as of late). The market had a big pop prior to the open, then a few whipsaws before finally dropping hard to retest Wednesday's lows before rallying hard into the close and retest the highs of the day.

The o/n now saw the market moving sideways and then starting to drift lower. FGSI is showing extreme pessimism already, so a bounce might be attempted, but it it also showing confirmed local lows, so the decline might extend. We have a bullish EE lvl vs yesterday's LOD, so that levels becomes important if we do in fact accelerate lower. The biggest problem for buyers is the fact that they lost ML, then tried to win it back but failed.

mcm daily market update 5.Mar.21

ST trend: neutral (with bearish risk)

It seems the market stopped tipping its hand in the o/n session and keeps things in suspense until the cash market open. For several days we were noting that the trend was neutral as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI in the o/n session. Yesterday the buyers staged an attack over ML to get us back to an uptrend, but failed just above as the markets were disappointed by Powel's remarks. Funny how that works. So just to mention this again: ML is a KEY level for the overall trend. If price is above, we have a bullish bias, while if price is below - bearish.

In the o/n, both buyers and sellers were inefficient, as the market still tries to digest the mini-crash off Powel's statements. We have bearish EE above which held price action and pushed it lower and now bullish EE set up with FGSI bouncing from extreme pessimism. Those levels remain important and a breach would mean one side is getting the upper hand. Buyers want to hold the bullish EE and ideally to break back above ML. That would help them and could trigger a "relief rally". Sellers want to make a stand at (or below) ML and try to attack yesterday's LOD. Breaking the bullish EE level would help them significantly.