mcm daily market update 24.Jan.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, as the market continued to act weak. We also warned that "Large bounces are possible, but are likely to be good selling opportunities, while attempting to buy dips is extra risky. Dust should settle after OPEX, so the timing window for a potential important low would be Monday or Tuesday". That proved to be the case, as the large bounce off the RTH open back-tested ML and was rejected there strongly. Market then fell almost 100 points from that ML test to close near the lows.

On Sunday, buyers managed to step in and push price a bit higher, but then hit a brick wall near 4425 and stopped. Today's o/n action pushed once again in that 4425 lvl and got rejected and proceeded to break Friday's low. We are now in the timing window we considered for a low - today or tomorrow. While it does no seem the low is in yet, another large drop today could reach capitulation on the buyer side and then see a strong bounce. FGSI shows a confirmed low on the last low, so that will likely be taken out before an important bottom is found. We also have FOMC this week and Powel speaking on Wednesday, after the FOMC announcement. That could be a potential catalyst for another trendy move. So for now the ST trend (as well as the main trend) is down. Play accordingly until the market shows us a change in that character.

mcm daily market update 21.Jan.22

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as price was testing ML, so it was decision time. Breakout would get an up squeeze while rejection would lead to immediate downside. We did get the breakout and a large up squeeze right into macro-ML. However, as we warned yesterday "Ultimately, it seems likely that we have unfinished business on the downside". The market rejected hard at macro-ML and buyers did have a feeble attempt to defend ML, but failed and after that there was no looking back. The market lost a whooping 100 points after ML was lost.

The o/n continued the pattern of the last few days. Instead of seeing an acceleration and breakdown, it put in yet another attempted stick save. Price made a lower low, which was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI and the cue to start an attempted bounce. This one, although looking similar to the one from yesterday, didn't make it to test ML yet, so from that perspective looks weaker. Today is OPEX so there was always the prerequisites to have many shennanigans, but with VIX so elevated and markets in a very fragile state after these aggressive declines, whipsaws both ways are expected to be larger than normal. So reducing size and being extra nimble is required if wanting to actively trade. Same as yesterday, it doesn't seem like the market found a stable low just yet, despite the large decline. So the main trend is still down. Large bounces are possible, but are likely to be good selling opportunities, while attempting to buy dips is extra risky. Dust should settle after OPEX, so the timing window for a potential important low would be Monday or Tuesday.

mcm daily market update 18.Jan.22

ST Trend: down (with bounce attempt ongoing)

Friday saw large whipsaws in both directions. After a decently large gap down (30+ points), buyers stepped in and managed to fill the gap. Then the opening low was tested and finally broken, after which the last 2h of the session saw the "usual" late Friday ramp to take out the highs.

The o/n today saw a big "rug pull", as buyers are seeing a 60+ point drop from Friday's highs. That area was tested several times, but macro-ML capped price and finally once buyers lost ML, we had a large flush to take out Friday's lows. Buyers are attempting to reduce the large gap and with FGSI and IGSI at extreme pessimism that was to be expected. So bounce is ongoin ghere, however as long as ML is overhead, sellers have the upper hand. The o/n low is confirmed on IGSI and locally on FGSI, while FGSI is slightly unconfirmed vs the low from yesterday's late futures session. So even if a bounce is likely here, sellers are still preferred, until buyers can prove themselves by gaining efficiency on FGSI and winning back ML.

mcm daily market update 10.Jan.22

ST Trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. We did note that as long as ML and macro-ML are above price, sellers retain an edge and that proved to be true. The bullish EE on FGSI with FGSI at extreme pessimism did lead to a bounce right into a ML test, but ML held as resistance and after whipsawing a few times, marrket then made new lows. We did get the usual Friday afternoon ramp, but that also failed just below ML.

Sunday saw new lows reached, before another bounce into ML. And the o/n today also saw 2 ML tests, but both rejected price strongly. Now the market appears to try to find another bottom. FGSI is at extreme pessimism again, but the main problem for buyers is that this is a confirmed low. So even if we get a ST bounce, more work is likely needed before a more meaningful bottom is found. In the bigger picture, ML keeps rejecting price and acting as a brick wall of resistance, which is in itself bearish. Buyers would need to break above ML to start looking at a more significant change in trend. Until then, sellers have the ball.

mcm daily market update 03.Jan.22

ST trend: up (with pullback in progress)

First off: Happy New Year! Welcome to 2022!

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt. The market had finally broken the 4770 support and fell to macro-ML quickly after that (as warned it would happen if ML and 4770 would give way). Price was just retesting 4770 and our expectation was that it could be just a reflective bounce. The market proved our expectations correct as it failed on the 1st back-test of ML and that important area and fell into another macro-ML test. Then another bounce, a spike above ML to 4780, then again failure and sell-off to macro-ML. Basically the entire Friday session was a chop between 4780 and macro-ML. Buyers held macro-ML, so that at least gives them some hope of holding the up trend.

The New Year brought some support for buyers as we gapped up on Sunday above ML and buyers were able to hold it on the back-test. Then they made another high above 4780, although they stopped 10 points higher. Now we are seeing a pullback from extreme optimism on FGSI into yet another ML back-test. The fact that buyers held macro-ML and won back ML, gives them hope that they just might stick save the up trend and resume the move higher. They are definitely not out of the woods just yet, so they need to keep holding these important levels and push higher to avoid a longer (and deeper) consolidation. They have not shown too much efficiency on FGSI or IGSI, so there are still some issues. Nevertheless, as long as ML and macro-ML are below price, buyers have the edge, so that needs to be respected until those levels fail.

mcm daily market update 31.Dec.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was up with potential topping pattern as the high was unconfirmed on FGSI. We did mention the big picture ranges of 4770 and 4800. The market first had yet another bounce off ML which stopped again on the 4800 resistance and then sellers finally took over and we saw a big sell-off in the 2nd part of the RTH session and closed at the lows right into 4770 lower part of the range.

The o/n saw sellers finally break the 4770 area with a quick 20 point drop right into macro-ML. That test of macro-ML was unconfirmed on FGSI and buyers stepped in and brought price right back up to 4770. They are not very efficient via FGSI, as they are testing that big level from below, so this bounce could be just a reflexive back-test of prior broken support. Buyers would need to see a break back above 4770 and ML (which is just above) in order to get back in the lead. Either directly from here or after making a higher low vs the o/n low. Sellers have the upper hand now and they need to hold here and break the unconfirmed low.

And as today is the last day (and trading day) of the year, Happy New Year!

mcm daily market update 27.Dec.21

ST trend: up (with potential pullback coming)

On Thursday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up, as after Wednesday's big run the o/n saw just sideways chop, but buyers still managed to muster higher highs. The market delivered as it had a run up just after RTH open and then camp in a tight range, before pulling back into the close.

The o/n today looks very similar to Wed-Thu o/n from last week. Sideways chop in a tight range, but with buyers pushing from time to time and achieving higher highs. FGSI is at extreme optimism, so a ST pullback is possible to "reset" FGSI. As usual, if the danny line is broken, next support would be 400bar MA. IF 400bar MA also fails to hold price, then another ML back-test is possible. If either of those upper lines holds, then more immediate upside is possible. We are close to the prior ATHs, so if 4730-4740 area is broken through, then we could see another squeeze higher before a consolidation.

mcm daily market update 20.Dec.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down as buyers had lost ML and macro-ML and were very inefficient on bounces via FGSI. That played out as expected as price continued lower about 40 more points from our post, before buyers finally attempted a bigger bounce from another trip to extreme pessimism on FGSI. That bounce perfectly back-tested ML and price rejected there. Buyers attempted again, after holding a higher low, but ML rejected price again and closed the session on Friday pretty ominous for buyers.

Sunday and today's o/n sessions continued the bearish set-up from Friday. Buyers were very inefficient on bounces (via FGSI) and price kept making lower lows. Given the strong rejection at ML, the main trend is down, until that changes. We are on the Monday after OPEX, so the market might attempt a larger bottom here. The 1st step for buyers would be to defend the o/n low and if they can't at least the low near 4500 reached beggining of December.

mcm daily market update 17.Dec.21

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was up as buyers continued to build on the big FOMC bounce and sellers kept being inefficient on the tiny dips. This continued until ES made a new ATH, after which price finally starting to come down from nose-bleed highs. The normal expectation would have been for a pullback into a ML back-test to resolve the ST overbought situation. However that is not what the market had in mind. ML failed to hold and the initial bounce off it quickly failed. That was a major warning something is wrong (with the bullish scenario).

The o/n session continued the bearish character, as bounces were weak and buyers were very inefficient via FGSI. Additionally every trip to extreme pessimism on FGSI provided only very limited relief bounces and were then subsequently broken. So now we are back to a down trend. Buyers need to prove themselves now by breaking bearish EE levels and winning back those 2 important lines. Immediate term danny and 400bar MA have been capping price and if they finally fail to do that, it would be the 1st sign buyers are attempting to step in. OPEX is today, so whipsaws are possible in both direction, but the main trend is down until ML and macro-ML are won back.

mcm daily market update 16.Dec.21

ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend is neutral as both sides were inefficient. We also mentioned that the prior day low was a big line in the sand and being a FOMC day, the market should pick up a more sustained direction after the announcement. Wednesday's low held the whole day and as it turned out was a great level to act against for those who wanted to enter long positions. The FOMC action was typical. First move (down) was the fake one and then the market rallied off that base to breakout significantly and close near the highs.

The o/n confirmed the shift (back) to full-on bullish mode. The RTH close was bested by another 30 points and ES came close to a new ATH. Pullbacks continue to be very small, while FGSI is showing sellers are having a very hard time getting price to cooperate. Brief drops of price below the danny line were quickly recovered, so until that line fails on a sustained basis, dips are likely to be contained. Once danny gives way and also 400bar MA is lost, then a pullback to ML could happen. That might not occur today and considering that ML is also being dragged higher by price, it could occur at higher prices. For now the buyers are back in the lead and the main trend is up. So dips are buying opportunities until the market signals again a change in character.

mcm daily market update 13.Dec.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up with a potential topping pattern, as buyers had managed to win ML back, but FGSI was at extreme optimism so a pullback was expected. We did note that if buyers could hold ML on that potential pullback, that could set up another push higher, and that is exactly what played out. We got the pullback into a ML test, then buyers launched higher in a vertical ramp off the 8:30am data release. That pushed FGSI back to extreme optimism and the pullback from there tested ML once more, bounced, but the bounce failed and price dropped into a test of macro-ML. Buyers stepped in there, won back ML and held it twice before launching higher. All in all a good day for buyers, which held the up trend intact.

Sunday saw another push higher from Friday's close at the highs and then the usual grind back lower from there. What is worrying for buyers is that they started to show inefficiency via FGSI. So even if the larger trend is up (as ML was won and defended), the ST trend seems to be up for grabs as boths sides are inefficient. We also had an unconfirmed high on FGSI at Sunday's high, so if sellers break the bullish EE lvls and manage to break below ML, then we might see another test of the macro-ML. Buyers on the other hand would need to break Sunday's high to keep running.

mcm daily market update 10.Dec.21

ST trend: up (with potential topping pattern)

Yesterday we were mentioning the ST trend was down with a potential bottoming pattern as buyers were inefficient via FGSI and they had lost ML. However FGSI was at extreme pessimism, so a bounce was likely. The market did what we expected as it did bounce, but that bounce failed and in the end it resumed lower to make new lows. RTH closed at the lows, which we mentioned in our chatroom that is likely a bear trap.

The o/n proved the bear trap to be true. Buyers managed to hold yesterday's low, despite testing it 2 times, after which they launched higher. More importantly, they won ML back. That is a serious warning for sellers. If ML managed to hold, then the up trend will resume. FGSI is at extreme optimism up here, so a pullback is expected. If buyers manage to hold ML on that pullback, that would be the ideal bullish scenario. Sellers want to see ML fail on a sustained basis to arrest the bounce and attempt more downside.

mcm daily market update 6.Dec.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI, having both bullish and bearish EE set up. The market did the same thing as the day before, namely rallied initiailly and broke the bearish EE lvl, until FGSI hit the extreme optimism zone. Then broke back lower to new lows. Buyers then stepped in from an unconfirmed low on FGSI and we got the usual late Friday ramp to repair the weekly close (as much as it could be repaired anyway).

Sunday saw a continuation of the boucne off Friday's lows and after reaching a "high plateau" a slow chop grind. The o/n today saw a push higher until FGSI reached extreme optimism, then the usual drop from there right into FGSI extreme pessimism. Buyers stepped in, of course, and now we are in a bit of "no-man's land". A few things are worth mentioning. FGSI kep showing sellers were inefficient on Sunday and even today on this larger drop. Buyers however also appear to be inefficient, having bearish EE vs Friday's high. Price is now close to ML, so a push higher would need to be taken seriously by the sellers, as it would indicate an attempted breakout. As can be seen on the FGSI chart the macro ML (thicker line above) was tested on Friday and even spiked above, only to reject price hard there. So price reaction to those important lines in the sand (ML and macro ML) will be important. The them the past 2 weeks has been o/n rally which spills into the RTH open, only to have the market drop hard from that high. It remains to be seen if this happens also now, while sustained breakout over 4600 is likely to be problematic for sellers.

mcm daily market update 03.Dec.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and set up both bullish and bearish EE. And we noted that breakout/down of those levels would be telling. The market initially broke down the bullish EE, which led to a decline that tested Wednesday's lows. That test coincided with an unconfirmed low set up on FGSI and buyers managed to step in there are arrest the decline. They tested ML, which rejected the 1st time, but then managed to hold yet another higher low and won ML back the 2nd time around and managed to hold above until the close.

The o/n saw price coming back to test ML once more. We even broke below it, but buyers managed to step in and stick save it close by and then won it back. ML got tested once more and this time buyers managed to make a higher low. Sellers are inefficient on FGSI and the 2nd decline to ML triggered a bullish EE lvl. The problem is that also buyers look inefficient on FGSI, so the trens is neutral. ML is the big line in the sand for the trend. Buyers need to keep holding above it to have hopes at more upside.

mcm daily market update 29.Nov.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a potential bottoming attempt. The market obliged and buyers made a decent effort going into the RTH open, but failed to take out the important bearish EE level on FGSI just below 4660. That failure was pretty ugly and led to another 50+ points drop until the close.

Sunday saw a big bounce off that close at the lows as the news driven scare from Friday aleviated somewhat and the market got right back to Friday's bounce high (near 4640). Buyers couldn't push through and today we retested that area twice and rejected every time. What is more problematic is the fact that buyers have exhibited continued inefficiency on the bounces into that area, last bounce making a lower high in price, but a higher high in FGSI, hitting extreme optimism zone. Sellers are also inefficient on dips, which makes the near term trend neutral. When a bigger trend change happens it is normal to see initial indecision on FGSI with both sides being inefficient, so this could still be part of the bottoming process. For that to happen buyers would need to break through 4640 area soon (ML is also in its vicinity now) and then 4660. If they can take out those 2 levels, Friday's low would start to look like an important bottom. On the other side, sellers need to hold 4640 (ideally) and break Friday's low. That was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI, so it is VERY important.

mcm daily market update 26.Nov.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Wednesday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and set up both bullish and bearish EE. Those levels were mentioned as important for breakout/down. The market dropped on the RTH to test the bullish EE level and held it narrowly, proceeding afterwards into a big bounce that took out the bearish EE level. They definitely won the battle when they held the bearish EE level.

Yesterday saw buyer euphoria continue as the market ramped another 20 points above Wednesday's high. It then started dripping lower very slowly before it picked up speed and outright crashed. From top to bottom we travelled more than 120 points. We do have now a potential bottoming zone. For the 1st time since this big decline started buyers have been building higher lows, despite bearish EE showing up on FGSI. And they have also started to whipsaw danny, which has kept a lid on bounces since near 4700. Buyers are not out of the woods yet, as they have been unable to hold above danny, while FGSI still has bearish EE vs a level that is almost 40 points higher. Nevertheless the fact that danny is no longer capping price is a 1st warning buyers are attempting to bounce back. If they can win back also 400bar MA, then that would be additional confirmation of a bigger low in the works. Buyers need to start holding danny as support in order to avoid a potential run to a lower low.

mcm daily market update 22.Nov.21

ST Trend: neutral (potential reversal of uptrend underway)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, as price had reversed lower off an unconfirmed high on both FGSI and IGSI and broke below ML. We did mention that FGSI hit extreme pessimism and bounced into a ML back-test that rejected price. Buyers then defended the initial low and managed to win back ML and stage an impressive rally in the 1st part of the RTH session. The usual OPEX whipsaws then started to kick in and we dropped very quickly into a retest of the o/n lows, before buyers stepped in to defend that level.

Sunday and today's morning session saw a continued up grind putting some decent distance to Friday's afternoon low. However price stopped again near Friday's RTH high and reversed strongly. FGSI hit extreme optimism there too. Now price is testing ML in earnest and also broke the 1st bullish EE lvl on FGSI. These are worrying developments for buyers because if ML is lost, the edge will go to the sellers. They need to step in quickly to avoid a potential break of Friday's lows.

mcm daily market update 19.Nov.21

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. Sellers took the lead early after the RTH session started and accelerated lower to break the bullish EE level. The market found support at extreme pessimism on FGSI and helped by a Seller Exhaustion and buyers were able to stage a V-shaped bottom from there to finish back near the highs.

The o/n saw a continuation of the bounce as buyers pushed the price almost ~20 points higher. That high was stubbornly unconfirmed by both FGSI and IGSI and once price failed to hold danny and 400bar MA we started the rollercoaster down again. Buyers also lost ML, which is particularly bad. We did hit extreme pessimism on FGSI again and buyers staged a bounce into a ML back-test, which rejected price. It is OPEX today so wild whipsaws in both directions are to be expected. ML remains important for the trend, so where price settles in relation to it will be telling.

mcm daily market update 15.Nov.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as price was stuck in a range and both sides were showing inefficiency on FGSI. We had both bullish and bearish EE at the ends of the chop range, and mentioned that breakout would be telling. ML was also close by and that also provided nice clues. Price chopped around in the range for a bit more and off the cash opened dipped below ML slightly. However buyers were able to stop very close and once they broke back above ML there was no looking back.

Buyers continued to dominate on Sunday, making new highs above Friday. Today we had the usual pullback from the Sunday high, but buyers stepped in quickly to buy the dip and we made another high vs that one. So buyers are in control, as sellers continue to look inefficient on pullbacks. We do have IGSI stubbornly refusing to confirm the highs and FGSI setting up another locally unconfirmed high, so there is the potential for a reversal. The important TT lines (danny, 400bar MA and ML) must give way though. So far danny held support, which limited pullbacks. Once danny finally gives way, 400bar MA is the next inflection. A ML back-test could happen if 400bar MA also fails and if it does, that would be the big decision point. As long as price is above ML - buyers have the edge and this can continue to push higher.

mcm daily market update 12.Nov.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was up, as sellers continued to be inefficient on pullbacks, while buyers had managed to win back ML. We did mention that ML is the key for the trend and that proved to be important. ML was lost early after the cash session started, which was a warning buyers are losing control. Sellers were not able to take advantage of that though and we spent the rest of the day in a sideways chop.

The o/n didn't bring much change. Both sides are inefficient (via FGSI) and we continue to chop sideways, just like in yesterday's cash session. ML is still overhead and rejected price several times - again, just like yesterday. ML continues to be the key level and if buyers manage to win it back, that breakout would be significant. The breakout must be sustained, a head-fake above ML which fades back below would actually be very bearish. So keep an eye on ML and how price acts around it. Given the sideways chop yesterday, today should bring a bigger move. ML should tell us if it will be up or down.

mcm daily market update 8.Nov.21

ST Trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was (still) up, as sellers were very inefficient on FGSI. We also mentioned that the important lines on TTs would provide important clues when a reversal would finally show up. The market ended up pushing another ~30 points higher from our post, before finally reaching exhaustion and pulling back for the rest of the session. Once danny was broken on TTs, it was a clear sign a pullback is coming. The pullback was also 30+ points, after which the buyers managed to bounce into the close.

The action on Sunday and today in the am doesn't look very promising for buyers. Despite the news of the infrastructure bill passing over the w/e, price continued to consolidate in a limited range. It tested ML and bounced, but not convincingly and is still below the bounce high from Friday. Buyers also printed a bearish EE vs that high which held. On the other hand, sellers continue to show inefficiency on FGSI so considering that ML did hold, buyers still get the benefit of the doubt. If the bearish EE gets broken, that would be confirmation of more upside. If it continues to hold and we break below ML, that would be a sign a bigger pullback is in the cards.

mcm daily market update 1.Nov.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as despite earnings misses from 2 heavyweights (AMZN and AAPL), the decline was contained. Price just came to test ML and sellers were unable to push too much below it. FGSI was showing both bullish and bearish EE in a sign that the ST trend was up for grabs. We did note that a breakout/down of that EE would signal that one side is taking control and that side was the buyers. As soon as 4575 broke, buyers pushed strongly and finished at the highs (new ATHs).

Sunday saw a continuation of the up move, with new highs being reached. We had an unconfirmed high on FGSI and pullback from there. That pullback was bought today and we are currently at new highs and ATHs again. FGSI is showing the "up squeeze" set up, as it's declining fast off extreme optimism, while the danny line is holding as support and price keeps making higher highs.

So the ST trend remains up, despite the ST overbought condition. The 1st signs that it will let up will be a failure of danny to hold price. Next support below that is 400bar MA and below that ML. We do have FOMC starting its 2 days meeting tomorrow and announcing its decision on Wednesday, so that will definitely be an inflection point timing wise.

mcm daily market update 25.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was still up as sellers continued to be inefficient on eachpullback, while buyers kept pushing to higher highs. After the cash market opened we saw an initial drop, then a push to a new high, which was unconfirmed on FGSI and which was afterwards quickly reversed. The ensuing decline was very steep as we dropped 35 points in a vertical drop, before buyers stepped back in on extreme pessimism on FGSI and a 2nd sequential SE on TTs which also had an Xtick. That nailed the low for Friday and the market bounced right into the cash close.

Sunday saw a drop from those highs until FGSI hit again extreme pessimism zone (just barely), where buyers stepped in again and pushed price back right to the closing highs from Friday. The o/n today showed clearly that sellers are very inefficient (via FGSI) as every drop generated a big move in FGSI and as a consequence was quickly bought back up. It seems that the market is waiting for the cash session to decide on a clear direction. Above the ATH touched early on Friday and buyers could push another 15-20 points before finding resistance. As long as the ATH holds as resistance, sellers have a shot at pushing directly towards Friday's lows. Both TTs and FGSI currently give the upper hand to the buyers as all important lines on TTs (danny, 400bar MA and ML) are below price, while FGSI keeps showing sellers are very inefficient. So unless sellers step in on the cash open, we could see another push higher.

mcm daily market update 22.Oct.21

ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We were also mentioning that a ML breakdown was avoided by buyers and as long as that lvl continued to be defended, the buyers would continue to have the edge. And a break back above 400bar MA would suggest a run to the ATHs. That is exactly what came to pass. ML was defended twice during the cash session, 2nd time a SE also came to the rescue and buyers pushed from there right into a new ATH.

The o/n saw a choppy sideways session with initial pullback being bought and then price finally pushing to new highs. Buyers continue to hold the upper hand as the potential topping patterns on the GSIs keep getting busted. We are in a giant up squeeze since 13th of October, with very limited pullbacks, so once this momentum fails, the snap-back could be quite violent. However until ML fails in a sustained way, the main trend is still up and no reversal is confirmed.

mcm daily market update 11.Oct.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. The session on Friday didn't do much to clarify things and we had a sideways chop day, but which did finish near the lows. Sunday saw prolonged weakness as price made significant new lows and tested the 4350 ES area.

Buyers did stage a decent bounce off those lows (FGSI had reached extreme pessimism), but the bounce looks weak and was subsequently sold. We did get a ML back-test which rejected price strongly, so things look pretty grim for buyers. We are at extreme pessimism again on FGSI, if they can step in again, then danny would be the 1st line to watch. Above that 400bar MA and, of course, ML is THE key line in the sand. Only if buyers manage to win back ML will the bearish character change. Otherwise the sellers would have the edge.

mcm daily market update 8.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the trend was up with a potential topping pattern, as we had just finished an up squeeze and buyers were showing early signs of being inefficient. Buyers pushed higher after a whipsaw just before the cash open and we had yet another squeeze higher, before buyer finally exhausted themselves and we had a pullback in the 2nd part of the day.

The o/n saw no resolution. We kept whipsawing aroudn the same levels close to the cash close from yesterday. Buyers did manage to defend ML so far, but were not able to push price back higher. FGSI is showing that both sides are inefficient, so the ST trend is up for grabs. ML continues to be the key line in the sand for the ST trend, so on which side of ML price will settle after the cash open will be telling. Yesterday's HOD is important on the upside, while ML is a must watch on the downside.

mcm daily market update 1.Oct.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We did note however that after buyers had won ML in the o/n, the decline off extreme optimism on FGSI saw ML being lost again. That was a warning the trend shift (back to up) was not confirming. The cash open saw ML being tested from below again, but it held as a brick wall and we got a big down day. The bounce attempt from noon was sold off hard into the close and cash session closed at the lows again.

This time however it seems the weak cash close was no longer a bear trap. The bounce off the weak close was VERY weak, and FGSI kept showing that buyers were inefficient on each bounce attempt. And each one was then sold off to new lows. Which brings us to the current set-up. The trend is clearly down, however we do have the potential in place for a bigger bottom. The last low was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And even though the initial bounce off there generated yet another bearish EE which held, this time sellers couldn't push price to a new low. 1st step for buyers to do to confirm the attempted bottom would be to break the bearish EE level. After that the all-important ML test will likely be the next big inflection. As long as ML is overhead, the main trend is down, so no big bounce can come until that is won back. Below the unconfirmed low would break the attempted bottom and continue the pattern of lower lows.

mcm daily market update 24.Sep.21

ST trend: down

Yeterday (same every day since Tuesday, actually) we were noting that the ST trend was up and the market delivered. We had a BE Xtick right off the cash open, which was broken out, and there was no looking back after that. The FGSI nicely hinted we could get an up squeeze set-up and that played out text book. The market finally peaked in the 2nd part of the day, also text-book for the FGSI up squeeze set-up, only after FGSI turned back up to mark an unconfirmed high.

From the unconfirmed high, the market pulled back pretty strongly, bounced, but the bounce showed buyers were inefficient and after that sellers took control. They broke to new lows and ran price into a ML test. A pullback to ML would be the normal expectation after an up squeeze set up, however it is a bit concerning that ML did not hold cleanly. Buyers had a decently bullish set up going into the ML test. We had bullish EE on both FGSI and IGSI, FGSI was at extreme pessimism (green zone). So they should have held ML more cleanly. But they didn't and this looks more like a breakdown with rejections at the back-test attempts. FGSI is showing buyers are inefficient, so the ST trend is down for now. Price is still in the vicinity of ML, so not all is lost for buyers. They can still stick save this, but they need to win back ML. And whatever they do, they MUST defend the bullish EE lvl on FGSI (it is at the same lvl also on IGSI, so double importance). If that lvl goes, then that would be seriously concerning for the up trend.

mcm daily market update 20.Sep.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as buyers were in the middle of a bounce from bullish EE on FGSI. They failed at the retest of the prior high and then kept painting bearish EE on each bounce, and they all held and pushed price lower. Those were clear indications that sellers are stepping back up. The cash open spike did the same, with a bearish EE forming which held. After that there was no looking back. Sellers sliced through ML and they were in control throughout the session. On Sunday we had continuation to the downside, as a feeble attempt at a bounce saw bearish EE forming and then lower lows.

The o/n session of today continued to show weakness. Bounces were small but leading to large FGSI moves. Danny kept rejecting price. With that being said, we do have a double unconfirmed low on FGSI and IGSI. And we do have MGSI in the green zone. These make the POTENTIAL for a bigger bottom. Potential is the key word. Buyers need to prove themselves by breaking above key lines (momo, danny, 400bar MA and eventually ML) and also break bearish EE levels on FGSI/IGSI. 3 additional things to mention:

  1. This is the same set-up on FGSI/IGSI/MGSI which we had at prior 2 OPEX dates. While "this time could be different", it's worth keeping in mind what happened last time.
  2. We are overshooting the 50DMA on daily and the lower BB. At least a snap-back bounce is probable. Reaction to that, especially if price retest ML, will be key for the trend.
  3. FOMC starts its 2 day meeting tomorrow, with the announcement coming on Wed evening.

mcm daily market update 13.Sep.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as buyers managed to win back ML and sellers were also looking inefficient via FGSI. The cash open saw another BE (buyer exhaustion) early on and price was rejected very strongly there. Buyers lost ML which was the confirmation that the sellers are winning back control. Then the market flushed to new lows. Friday, unusual for a weekly close, ended the cash session at the lows.

We were noting that such a close is usually a bear trap, and it seems the market is confirming this hypothesis. Sunday saw a failed atttempted bounce and Friday's lows were tested again this morning early on. However that set up a 2nd consecutive unconfirmed low on FGSI in the extreme pessimism (green) zone. And buyers stepped in there and bounced hard. Sellers were very inefficient on the 1st pullback and buyers pushed higher again and won back ML. So again the trend is back to neutral. We have bearish EE set up, but also sellers are inefficient. So no confirmation either way. ML is the key level and price is above, so buyers have a slight edge here, but they MUST defend ML. If ML is lost, things can run south quickly, as we saw on Friday.