S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 19, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2696, 10DMA 2670,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2725, 100DMA 2649, 200DMA 2546

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

An easy start to a shortened trading week with no data points to concern ourselves with.  Last weeks technical picture should put sellers on alert as we broke over the intermediate minor level at 2725, the 50DMA, and declining resistance.  It will be important for sellers shove this back under these levels as quickly as possible lest risk a buyers basing process.  Given the distance between intermediate minor levels a basing process has the potential to open up a quality upside move back into the lower 2800's where as a failure here has the exact opposite effect with the next lower primary minor level being in the mid 2600's.  Be mindful of the round number psychology and rising support at the 2700 level and good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the week of 19-25 February

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The market managed to bounce back from the lows registered on the previous Friday and last week saw only green daily candles painting. It reached now a bit higher than the 61,8% retrace of the entire decline from ATH, which is quite an achievement considering how vicious the drop was.

The weekly cycles have shown a warning for the bears, by having LRE (lower risk entries) for longs at the lows from 2 weeks ago. ES even triggered a 2nd consecutive LRE at the higher low from last week. Big picture is still unchanged on this time frame, with the up impulses still established, but this correction was big enough that it could trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support at the lows.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show a more zoomed-in picture of the decline and subsequent bounce. They were also showing LREs for longs, albeit a bit early. More importantly they triggered bullish retraces (BR) supports on both ES and YM. The market bounced strongly from there and basically a corresponding END could trigger any time, which doesn't mean it cannot trigger much higher from here.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 9, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2673, 10DMA 2756,  20DMA 2782, 50DMA 2719, 100DMA 2638, 200DMA 2538

These are key Fib Levels:   2448

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, February 9,  2018

Data to close out the week is light with only Wholesale Trade at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw more weakness present itself yesterday as sellers stepped back into the fray.  Fibonacci points to a symmetry zone all the way down at 2448 which also coincides with a 23.6% retrace of the rally from the 2011 lows.  There is a good deal of potential for choppiness in this general area as a result of the intermediate minor levels stacked together, of which we tested the second layer of yesterday.  Overhead we now have established two declining resistance levels and a potential for a wedging pattern although that doesn't seem very probable given the symmetry target, but it is something to be mindful of in the event the structure is skewed upward as a result of buying pressures.  Good luck today and have an outstanding weekend everyone!

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 8, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2750, 10DMA 2797,  20DMA 2794, 50DMA 2718, 100DMA 2635, 200DMA 2535

These are key Fib Levels:   2763

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, February 8, 2018

Given the primary and intermediate levels charts are repopulating, today's update will use a regular SPX chart.  Data for today Is light with just the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  While the bounce off the lows is still corrective in nature, there hasn't been any indication of sellers reasserting themselves which lends some to the idea that the initial drop is going to take some time to consolidate itself before making another larger move direction to be determined.  An Idealized correction would find itself peaking around the 2763 to 2365 area which hosts a confluence of Fibonacci retrace and extension targets and declining resistance.  Rising support will come into play in the  in the mid 2660's.  Inside this expanded range is a bears den wrought with hazards so be nimble and flexible if you plan on playing this area.  Good luck today!

SPX

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 6, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2775, 10DMA 2812,  20DMA 2797, 50DMA 2716, 100DMA 2633, 200DMA 2533

These are key Fib Levels:  2640

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Data is light today in what is set to be another drubbing for buyers with only the JOLTS report at 10:00AMEST.  The futures market found its 200DMA in the overnight and then promply recovered back to the 100DMA.  Present price is set to open in the intermediate minor level cluster primarily between 2595 and 2577.  It will be important for buyers to establish themselves in this area, but given that the futures market tested the 200DMA, that puts very good odds on the cash market replicating the move.  Be extremely careful today because an errant entry could prove to be catastrophic. Good luck.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 5, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2838, 10DMA 2835,  20DMA 2799, 50DMA 2611, 100DMA 2629, 200DMA 2530

These are key Fib Levels:  2845, 2851

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, February 5, 2018

We hope everyone had a great weekend!  Price continues to decline unabated as was though to be the case once the 20DMA let go.  The most probable target now is the 50DMA and rising support in the lower 2700 region that should provide some relief for buyers to gather enough momentum to make at least a bounce attempt from if not more.  Anyone looking for the long side would be well advised to be nimble and choose your entries with strictly defined demarcation points.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 2nd week of February

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Finally the market stopped the relentless up move and had a rather panicky turn. A drop of more than 100 SPX points in one week is definitely something that draws attention, but it was not only that. The market character seems to have changed also, as the market sliced through supports like they were not even there. This is definitely the first sign of the bear in quite a long time.
The weekly cycles, show just how overextended the market was until last week. The nested up impulse traveled more than 600 points and more than 1 year without any correction big enough to qualify for a bullish retrace (BR). That is rather unusual both in terms of both price and time.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show the same story as the weekly, although the last up impulses started only in October 2017. But they also traveled a whooping 400 points without any retrace. This correction looks as the first serious one and we already have a lower risk entry (LRE) for longs at Friday's lows, which doesn't mean it's over, but the next low might be greeted with a new one, which would have to be taken seriously.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 29, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2844, 10DMA 2819,  20DMA 2777, 50DMA 2691, 100DMA 2614, 200DMA 2520

These are key Fib Levels:  2856

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, January 29, 2018

Hopefully everyone had a great weekend.  Data for today is light with only Personal Income and Outlays at 8:30AMEST, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.  Friday's vertical ascent neared broadening resistance and looks set to consolidate some of those gains this morning as we are currently positioned to open lower.  The first challenge for sellers is going to be in the low 2860's to upper 2850's where they will encounter the first line of horizontal support and depending on the speed of the decline potentially the first traces of rising support.  The way the 5DEMA has been respected throughout the duration of this leg has been absolutely astounding which means momentum traders are firmly entrenched in this move.  With that being said, it means the opposite will hold true.  When this move comes to a close, they are going to hit the exits in a hurry which is going to be scary for the uninitiated.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 26, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2823, 10DMA 2800,  20DMA 2754, 50DMA 2680, 100DMA 2607, 200DMA 2515

These are key Fib Levels:  2849, 2816

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, January 26, 2018

Happy Friday everyone!  We have a few big ticket items in the economic data department today with Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and International Trade all coming in at 8:30AMEST and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical side of the house saw a marginally weak day yesterday with a minor breach of rising support followed by momentum traders stepping in to arrest the fall just prior to the 5DEMA.  At present price is in a compression pattern which still lends an advantage to buyers so long as the previous swing lows hold.  Below the that pivot and sellers take control down to the 2800 level where buyers will be lying in wait for the next battle in price direction.  We also have a reasonably solid declining resistance in place which will serve as an early warning to sellers that the next leg higher may be getting under way if breached.  The target area for the compression pattern breakout would be in the 2880 region.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 24, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2816, 10DMA 2791,  20DMA 2747, 50DMA 2675, 100DMA 2603, 200DMA 2513

These are key Fib Levels:  2843, 2846

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 24, 2018

We have a reasonable amount of data today with PMI Composite Flash at 9:45AMEST, Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  Price popped over broadening resistance and continued to base on it yesterday which has the potential to lead to more runaway price action.  It will be important for sellers to arrest this as soon as possible for them to have any hope.  Rising support comes into play in the 2830 to 2825 should sellers be able to put together a resistance.  Good luck today.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 17, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2765, 10DMA 2745,  20DMA 2715, 50DMA 2652, 100DMA 2584, 200DMA 2401

These are key Fib Levels: 2798, 2789 

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, Janurary 17, 2018

Today's data is abundant with MBA Morgage Applications at 7:00AMEST, Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST, and the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.  After overthrowing broadening resistance sellers stepped in and managed to completely reverse the gap on the day and pull the market back to near the 5DEMA.  So long as sellers can defend the 2798 level they have the potential to build a larger decline, but while the decline was dramatic, there is no technical indications of a reversal at present especially since momentum buyers were eager to buy up the 5DEMA.  Sellers next target would be to test the area between 2760 and 2750 and close for the session below the 5DEMA upon a break of yesterday's lows.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2742, 10DMA 2716,  20DMA 2696, 50DMA 2640, 100DMA 2574, 200DMA 2495

These are key Fib Levels:  2756, 2741, 2736

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 10,  2017

Today's data consists of Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture has us up against declining resistance after cleanly bouncing off the 5DEMA as momentum players stepped back into the fray.  Given the current overnight price action we are currently marginally above the declining support but it is premature to read into that too much because price can do a lot of things between now and the opening bell.  Until a close below the 5DEMA buyers still have a firm grasp on overall market direction, and a break of the declining resistance would give more validity to that fact remaining valid.  The 2725 to 2530 zone will still be a solid area of defense for buyers should the sellers be able to push price down even further.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 9, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2724, 10DMA 2703,  20DMA 2686, 50DMA 2633, 100DMA 2568, 200DMA 2491

These are key Fib Levels:  2765

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, January 9,  2017

The data flow today is again light with only the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:00AMEST, the Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, nd the JOLTS Report at 10:00AMEST.  Very little has changed from yesterday's update as price continued to push up against the all time highs in a small broadening formation and continues to levitate above the broken broadening resistance now potentially support.  The first major challenge area on any pullback is going to be in the 2725 to 2730 zone with the most substantial consolidation area of this run and an accompanying gap out of it.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 8, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 2765

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2709, 10DMA 2696,  20DMA 2681, 50DMA 2629, 100DMA 2565, 200DMA 2489

These are key Fib Levels:  2732

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, January 8,  2017

Data is virtually nonexistent today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index release at 12:30PMEST.  Friday's price action extended us out over broadening resistance and well above the 5DEMA which should lead to some consolidation in the near term.  Seeing what kind of reaction takes place on a retest of the now potential rising support will be important.  A failure from this level hints that a run back at the lower bound is highly probable and a quality fifty point swing at this stage back to the 2690's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

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The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 28, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2596, 10DMA 2587,  20DMA 2585, 50DMA 2557, 100DMA 2509, 200DMA 2448

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 28,  2017

The overnight session, much like last nights, looks set to open higher and is taking on the characteristics of the red MSP which while a bit choppy through the early session looks to add onto the strength that started in the overnight as the session progresses.  Data is abundant today with International Trade in Goods at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST,  FHFA House Price Index and Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, and State Street Investor Confidence all coming in at 10:00AMEST,  and lastly the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

Again we challenged the rising support into the close and looks set to gap higher again this morning.  Until we trade through this level on a sustained basis then buyers still have a firm grasp on the market.  Once this level breaks we can look for the intermediate minor level at 2595 as a clear downside minimum target.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 21, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2578, 10DMA 2582,  20DMA 2579, 50DMA 2549, 100DMA 2502, 200DMA 2442

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2597(intermediate minor) 2579 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 21, 2017

With only the cyan MSP marking a low at timing through the overnight there is potential a good potential for a reversal around mid day timing and weakness all the way through the afternoon session.  Economic data today consists of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

Yesterday we found rising support at the close and sustained trade on a retest of the moving averages which has let to the overnight follow through which looks set to open well over the declining resistance level.  Price action over this area will be important because a failure to maintain above the resistance has a good probability of retracing the entire rally and head towards the 50DMA.  The key word is 'failure' though.  Sustained trade above resistance should be considered basing for a new rally leg.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 13-17th of November

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The market made new ATHs last week, which is becoming something rather ordinary. However, it ended lower on a weekly basis, after retreating 30 points from the ATH to Thursday’s low. It seems Thursdays are the most bearish inclined days in November, 2 weeks ago the Thursday saw a similar move. Both those moves were however recovered quickly, most of it even on a daily basis. No apparent change on our EWT scenario which is a terminal pattern currently unwinding 4-5 waves. Market is moving slowly higher with some “hiccups” along the way, but whether we turn after a spike higher or market just falls on its own weight after marginal new highs is hard to say.
No change in the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading up again and getting close to the maximum value.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for first Week of November

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The market moved mostly sideways last week, with a slight upward tilt. But even so, it managed to make a new ATH on Wednesday and finished the week very close to that. This is consistent with out assumption that these are sequences of 4-5 waves, from an EWT perspective, which would mean that it is a terminal pattern. No sign of a top just yet, but any impulsive decline should be viewed as a possible start of a bigger correction, so we reiterate our recommendation that bulls should avoid becoming complacent here.
No change in the weekly cycles. Up impulses continue to extend with no unwind in sight.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet, however we do have directionality coming close to the minimum level. That is not bullish, unless the price action manages to push this back up.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for last Week of October

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The market head-faked the bears last week. After a new ATH on Monday which was immediately sold, it declined 30+ points until the low it hit on Wednesday, but then the market came back strongly and made yet another new ATH on Friday, finishing close to the highs. From an EWT perspective, because this week’s low took out the low from the wedge of 2 weeks ago, these are likely sequences of 4-5 waves. Which would mean we are in a terminal pattern. Indeed there are enough waves now to count this as a complete impulse off the August low and even from the March low, so bulls should avoid being complacent.
The weekly cycles are still in up impulses with no sign of an uwind started.

Weekly Cycles

The same story is painted by the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet. In these types of patterns the faster cycles usually offer better clues in regards to a potential top.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 27, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2565, 10DMA 2561,  20DMA 2549, 50DMA 2503, 100DMA 2476, 200DMA 2415

These are key Fib Levels: 2578, 2568, 2547, 2527

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2547 (intermediate minor), 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 27, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  With GDP in the rear view mirror, data is light the rest of the day with only Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  MSP looks to be overall choppy today with not much of an advantage to be given to either side.

MSP

We look set to rally above resistance that stopped yesterday's rally, it will be important for buyers to maintain above and ideally close the day above the 5DEMA to signal a new shift in short near term momentum.  We also have a new intermediate pivot level at 2547 marking a significant point for sellers to shoot for.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 23-27 October

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The market took another 3 days to finish the wedge we were mentioning, within an annoyingly tight range. Thursday finally saw the resolution of that wedge with a decent pullback to roughly the area where the wedge started. After the market made a low there, bulls got back control with authority. Friday was very bullish, with a 10+ points gap higher and finishing at the highs. From an EWT perspective, the wedge pattern (or ending diagonal) is usually a final wave (wave 5). Considering that the market retreated to its starting point, then made new highs, it likely means that it was a wave 5 of minor degree and we are now in a new wave started at Thursday’s low. On a micro-count, it looks like the market still needs a few 4-5 waves to unwind, so it’s hard to call a top, but in case the market moves lower, Thursday’s low is all important. Overlapping that is likely confirmation that a turn started.
Still no change on the weekly cycles. No unwind in sight (bullish retrace and corresponding ENDs) and now directionality bounced and is heading higher again.

Weekly Cycles

The up impulses on the daily cycles are looking good and (still) look bullish picture. ES came very close to testing the mcm-MA on Thursday’s low before bouncing, showing that it is still providing support (which is also bullish).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 20, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2558, 10DMA 2554,  20DMA 2536, 50DMA 2294, 100DMA 2470, 200DMA 2409

These are key Fib Levels: 2564, 2536

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 20, 2017

A wild ride for yesterday's regular trading hours session brought us back to roughly flat on the day.  Data is light today with only Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  While our rising wedge patter produced a rather dramatic opening drop yesterday, it was quickly bought back up just prior to the outlined rising support and has continued through the overnight with new all time highs in the futures market.  Barring some selling in the premarket, we look set to open back up towards broadening resistance and new all time highs in the cash market as well.  Given the duration of the overall run, you'll likely see selling present itself on any contact of the broadening resistance from here on until a more substantial breakdown ensues.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 16, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2551, 10DMA 2545,  20DMA 2525, 50DMA 2287, 100DMA 2465, 200DMA 2403

These are key Fib Levels: 2566, 2530

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, October 16, 2017.

Overnight price action has tracked the cyan MSP well so a rather flat day overall is to be expected.  Data is extremely light today with only the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:ooPMEST.

MSP

Price still continues to defy gravity and the 5DEMA but has slowed its torrent ascent as buyer fatigue sets in.  Little has changed over the past few days with little to expect from sellers until the 5DEMA is closed below, at which point a trip to the low 2540's at the very least is to be expected.  Good luck today and have a great week!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 16-20 October

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The market put on the breaks last week after a very bullish start in October. It still managed to grind higher, but only slightly and this type of behavior resembles that of an EWT wedge pattern. That doesn’t mean this is the only option, as this could be just the market catching its breath before pushing higher once more, but bulls should be careful until this pattern is ruled out.
As usual, no change on the weekly cycles. The up impulses are getting long in the tooth now with no unwind (bullish retrace and corresponding ENDs), which is another reason for bulls to mark some profit and avoid getting complacent.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in clearly established up impulses as well, which reinforce the (still) bullish picture. The breakout levels (over resistances) are important in the intermediate term, in case the market starts to move lower. Otherwise any signal that these impulses start unwinding would be good clues.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 9-13 October

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The 1st week of October went to the bulls hands down. They managed a 5 green candles week, and a new ATH each day except Friday. As we have been saying for a while the bull nest off the low at 2418 is favorite and the market is acting as though that is playing out (this wave being an extended 3rd wave). That would mean that the “perfect world” EWT scenario would have us retrace back to the 2490 area after this wave is done and then push again to a new ATH for the final 5th wave of this sequence.
No change on the weekly cycles. The up impulse is ongoing and now also directionality is turning back up.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we now have new up impulses on both ES and YM. In case the next pullback triggers support in the form of a bullish retrace (BR) reaction to that signal would be important to watch.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 1st Week of October

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New week, new ATH seems to be the current turn of events. After a brief pull-back on Monday, the bulls quickly got back in the game and pushed the market to new highs. They also finished the week in style at the highs. The pullback did not manage to overlap 2480, so from an EWT perspective the bull nest off the low at 2418 is doing well (and still favorite). It now looks like we have put in a 5 wave impulse off the low at 2428, so the (presumed) 3rd wave off the 2418. The bears are running out of near-term options as the apparent bull nest is unfolding and unless they manage a rather direct overlap of 2455, the bulls are still favorites.
No change on the weekly cycles. The up impulse is alive and well and no pullback was big enough to trigger a bullish retrace.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles ES broke above resistance and held a back-test. And the up impulse also confirmed last week by having the mcm-MA also moving above resistance. That is bad news for bears. YM is now directly testing its resistance level so one last (slim) hope for the bears to turn this down in the near term.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 25-29 September

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The action seemed to slow last week, the market making a minor new high slowly into Wednesday, then pulling back slightly. From an EWT perspective, the bulls are still favorites and if this is indeed setting up as a nested move up, it should finish around 2490 and resume the up move. In the bear camp 2480 would be an important overlap and if they manage that then things might go towards getting the bull nest out of the picture.
No change on the weekly cycles. But the rally didn't go unnoticed, as directionality started to bounce .

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we are currently above the resistance on ES. The up impulse is not confirmed yet, but it will if the market continues to move up. YM triggered resistance at the high so it remains to be seen if it manages to push forward and break that as well or if this will turn things.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 20, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2501, 10DMA 2488,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2265, 100DMA 2440, 200DMA 2378

These are key Fib Levels: 2509

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 20, 2017

 

With the FED press conference after the meeting announcement this afternoon, there isn't much to be expected from the market until then.  2491 and rising support is still there for sellers to aim for and nothing overhead with the exception of broadening resistance and round number psychology.  Data we have Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST, and Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30PMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 18-22 September

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The sideways action from two weeks ago was resolved last week in the same way we got used to in the last few years - up. Last week was certainly bullish, with 5 green daily candles and several new ATHs. Although the last 3 days saw the market only grinding up, the declines were very limited, so nothing to cheer on from the bear camp. From an EWT perspective, now that the market made new highs, the favorite is still the bull option, which looks like a nested move up from the low at 2417. Even if that will not turn into a nest and will prove to be only a bigger 3 waver, it still looks like it needs a bit more up. The bear option is that this turns out to be either the flat we were mentioning in last week’s newsletter or that this overlap is not a nest, but an ending diagonal. The latter will gain weight if the market heads down and overlaps 2480 before making 5 clear waves up off 2428.
No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality is still heading lower despite the upside from this week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke above the resistance level and is close to confirming a new up impulse. That would be very bullish if it happens.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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