MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 19-23 of June

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market pulled the old “W” pattern last week, making a low on Monday, then bouncing back up to test the ATH (which it missed by 3 points), then moving in lower again to (barely) take out Monday’s low before bouncing once more. From an EWT standpoint this sideways action might be a wave 4, which means the bull count is still alive and well and still the favorite. That continues to be the case until the market will overlap the 2398-2402 area (depending on which high you consider the top of nested wave 1).

Same as for quite a while now, the weekly cycles do not show any significant change. However it is interesting to note some aspects. Namely, the mcm-MA on these cycles provided support several times when it was tested from above. Also, both YM and ES are in up impulses which are now firmly established so would normally need a regular unwind, with a bullish support (BR) and corresponding END resistance to dissipate the up energy.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are also in nested up impulses and recently broke yet again above resistance, breakout which would soon turn into another nested up impulse, unless the market reverses strongly. In fact YM will confirm in the next few days, as the mcm-MA is now crossing over resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 12-16 of June

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market moved mostly sideways (with a light down bias) last week, before putting in some fireworks on Friday. The action on the last trading day of the week deserves more careful analysis, as the market made a new ATH at the opening of the session, but which was then strongly sold off with a 30+ points decline, before bouncing back in the last hour before the close. This type of action, with a strong and fast reversal after a new high would normally point to at least some kind of short-term top, corresponding to a 5th wave in EWT. Currently the bear (EWT) options are not obvious, and this apparent top might be very short lived and be overtaken soon, but it just might be something more. 2398 is the first level to watch for an overlap on the way down.

Weekly cycles didn’t change much, except the directionality line on YM also started to move up like we were expecting last week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are still above the resistance levels, but didn’t significantly breakout just yet. As the market moved quite near them on the lows from Friday, this can qualify as a back-test, so what the market does next week will be important for the intermediate term also. If it holds the lows and bounces, then the breakout over resistances might become another up impulse. If the market breaks below the resistance levels, then it means the initial breakout was just an overshoot and more bearish resolutions are possible.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 5-9 of June

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

In the previous newsletter we were warning that the action had nothing bearish in it and the EWT more bullish scenarios were becoming favorite. The market followed through last week and pushed even higher.

Weekly cycles saw a slight change in that directionality on ES finally moved off its lowest level. YM didn’t do that just yet, but will likely follow unless the market turns soon.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered new resistances, but the market managed to break above them. The breakout is not significant just yet and may prove to be just a spike. But the further the market moves, the more likely the breakout becomes. The resistance levels are still important to watch, in case the market moves lower since if the back-test holds, that would be dangerous for bears.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 2, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2420, 10DMA 2413,  20DMA 2400, 50DMA 2378, 100DMA 2354, 200DMA 2269

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2411, 2400

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, June 2, 2017.

Happy Friday everyone!  With current price action odds favor a weak to flat day via the white MSP.  Data is light today with only the Baker Hughes Rig Count remaining at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture took a turn in the favor of buyers yet again yesterday with a breakout over the broadening resistance which now resides in the 2425 area.  Basing on this area on a pullback is a clear warning that higher prices are coming and most likely in a runaway fashion.  On the flip side, a break of the rising support sets up a high probability of a retest of the next nearest intermediate minor level at 2410.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 May -2 June

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Last week saw the market push towards new highs. There was nothing bearish about the action, quite the opposite in fact, the market being able to push past resistances and into new ATHs. From an EWT stand-point the picture is becoming increasingly complicated. The more complex correction is still possible, albeit not favourite anymore. For this to happen the market would need to turn quite soon and avoid pushing significantly higher from here. The most obvious bullish scenario is for a nested wave up from the 2320 low, which would need the market to head higher in a steep manner (continuing the action of last week)

Weekly cycles are unchanged, with directionality still at the lowest level despite the bounce.  Once that moves, it would be a confirmation that the up move is really bullish.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we saw a support level trigger also on ES (following YM). The up impulses are continuing to unwind and the next resistance levels will be very important to watch for reaction, especially since it will be a 3rd END on ES, marking the completion of the impulse.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 22-26 of May

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Last week saw the return of volatility to the market. After 2 days of consecutive new ATHs on Mon-Tue, the market saw a big down gap on Wed, which finished more than 40 points lower than the previous close. Next day we got a lower low, followed by a rebound which continued on Friday. Despite the more exciting action, we are still in the 2320-2400 chop zone, so the market is keeping its options open. From an EWT stand-point the more complex correction (started at the ATH from March 1st) scenario is gaining more weight because of the side-ways action. This would mean a flat is in the works, with wave A at the 2320 low and B either done at the recent ATH or needing a new minor high to finish. Then wave C down should follow with new lows (below 2320). Because of the overlap of 2370, the bullish scenario now became very bullish, because the only option still on the table is for a nested wave up (two series of 1-2 waves). This scenario is lower odds, though, at least at the moment because of the side-ways action.

Weekly cycles are unchanged, but directionality made it to the lowest level. That is not a bullish sign.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles held the test of resistances and moved lower and triggered some bullish signals at the lows. ES had 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for longs, while YM triggered a new support level. Those pointed up, but unless ES also triggers a new support level, it is still expected for the previous resistance to hold.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 8, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2391, 10DMA 2389,  20DMA 2368, 50DMA 2366, 100DMA 2328, 200DMA 2248

These are key Fib Levels:  2418, 2402, 2389, 2387

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, May 8, 2017

The overnight price action appears to be favoring the cyan MSP at present, but keep an eye on the regular trading hours open where timing causes very dramatic outcomes between them.  Data is very light today with Labor Market Conditions at 10:00AMEST and TD Ameritrade IMX at 12:30PMEST.

MSP

As noted on the board Friday, the sustained trade above the declining resistance resulted into a buying spree going into the close.  The overnight saw a spike even higher but has since returned to roughly the closing levels of Friday's trading session.  Above the all time highs and greater than 2410 is the most likely target.  The broken declining resistance in conjunction with the stack of 5DEMA, and 10DMA should provide support for buyers on any decline.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 4, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 10:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2387, 10DMA 2381,  20DMA 2364, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2325, 200DMA 2245

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Present price action is favoring the magenta MSP which would indicate weakness from the 8:30AMEST timing through the opening bell and then a positive bias the remainder of the day.  Data is abundant with International Trade, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, and the Gallup Good Jobs Rate at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, and lastly the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

As surmised by yesterday's update, the break of near term rising support produced a break down towards the lower intermediate minor level of 2373, but was arrested by the 10DMA.  Current price is set to open near the declining resistance level just overhead which will serve as a warning for sellers if trade is sustained above that and/or successfully backtested on a break above.  The long standing 2379 fib level was nearly tested at yesterday's lows which serves two roles going forward.  Either the failure to test the level translates to an extremely strong move higher as the correction was truncated, or the correction still requires more time and price depreciation.  Good luck today and keep an eye on premarket price action with timing and the data dump at 8:30AMEST.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 3, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2386, 10DMA 2378,  20DMA 2362, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2323, 200DMA 2244

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

We have a reasonable amount of economic data to hit the tape today with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15AMEST, Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30AMEST, and lastly the all important FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw us test and bounce off of both the broadening and rising support near the close of business yesterday and close above the 5DEMA.  A break of rising support will likely see us go down and visit the 10DMA and the 2373 intermediate minor level before finding more significant support.  Until the rising trendline is broken and trade sustains below though, buyers have control.  Good luck today and be careful around 2:00PMEST if you have any open positions.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the 1st Week of May

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market continued to move higher last week and did so more convincingly than the previous week. It opened on Monday with a gap up of more than 20 points and Tuesday saw another opening gap up, this time smaller (around 7 points). The high of the week came very close to the ATH, before the market retreated a bit in the last 2 trading sessions. Our preferred EWT scenario (bullish) played out, despite the initial chop which had us question the validity of this (presumed) 3rd wave. Now it looks like this wave up might need another high before finishing and the coming correction from there will be telling to see if this is indeed a bullish impulse up or not. As it looks right now and in accordance with our thoughts from the previous newsletter this doesn’t look like a “real” 3rd wave up, which has us thinking it might be part of a more complex correction which started at the ATH (potentially a B wave of a flat). But we will burn that bridge once we come to it.
Weekly cycles did not trigger any new signals. Directionality is still moving lower which is a sign that it is not time to sound the all clear for the bulls just yet.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles continue to unwind the up impulses. ES triggered a 2nd END resistance, while YM also triggered an END resistance level. This is a sign that the upward energy of these impulses is dissipating. Considering that this is already a nested up impulse (an impulse following another impulse), it is unlikely that the market will have enough strength to break above these resistances and create another nested impulse. That being said, a marginal new high is not excluded, but we do not expect the resistance levels to be broken above significantly.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 24 – 28 Apr

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market moved higher during the past week, ending around 20 points higher on a weekly basis. The low at 2320 held (despite being tested in the overnight on Monday), so our EWT preferred scenario (bullish) played out. However the move from lows was very choppy and does not resemble a 3rd wave, which our bullish scenario would point to. So it is time to re-assess since it seems this wave sequence is turning into something more complex. If someone played a long off the lows here is time to book some profits, and wait to “see more cards”, as they say in poker. The market will give us some more clues into its intentions by how the next few sessions will play out.
Not surprisingly there is no significant change on the weekly cycles. The mcm-MA test did provide support again, as pointed to last week, while directionality is continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had again a very nice signal. ES triggered a 2nd bullish retrace (BR) support after the END resistance higher. This support was respected, as the market was testing the BR support also on YM, and the market bounced. The next resistance will be a 2nd END on ES and will likely be strong if YM also triggers.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter for Week 17-21 Apr

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

After moving sideways 2 weeks ago, the holiday shortened week brought a clearer direction, which was down. The market was weak in all 4 trading days and finished at the lows on Thursday. The short term EWT scenario we kept referencing is very close to a resolution now. The low close to 2320 is all important and the separation line between the bullish and the (very) bearish scenario. It did not get taken out yet, so the bullish scenario is still preferred. However the market came quite close and is still too close for comfort for the bulls. Which is why Monday is likely to bring a resolution, one way or the other. Both scenarios point to a strong next move, so the action from here will likely affect the intermediate term trend.
No big change on the weekly cycles. ES is now testing the mcm-MA again and will be interesting to see if this will provide support again. Directionality continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles saw an interesting development last week. ES triggered already an END resistance, which had shifted the expectation down once it confirmed. YM did not trigger one yet, so the support on daily YM is still valid. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, and is getting a bit long in the tooth for a bounce.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 10, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2355, 10DMA 2358,  20DMA 2359, 50DMA 2348, 100DMA 2299, 200DMA 2226

These are key Fib Levels:  2392, 2341

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2386(intermediate minor), 2354 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, April 10, 2017

With white and cyan as the most probable MSP's through the overnight session, it will be important to see what 11:00AMEST timing has to discern between the two which equates to patience for the first portion of the session.  With only the Labor Market Conditions Index at 10:00AMEST, and TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, data shouldn't pose much of a influence on price action today.

MSP

The intermediate level at 2354 continues to act as a magnet for price as we whipsaw the shorter term DMAs over and over again.  As a reminder, we still have yet to put in an cyan intermediate pivot marker at the most recent lows so sellers still have the overall bias in their favor until that takes place.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 10 – 14 Apr

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market didn’t do much of anything last week, probably trying to prove that sideways is also a direction. We did get a higher high vs the previous week on Wednesday, but still finished the week lower. No change in our EWT (short term) scenarios - we still have a 3 wave correction from the ATH and the current bounce overlapped the 1st wave low, so the current move should continue to new ATHs, unless the bears turn this into a nested move down. The low close to 2320 is the level to beat for bears, while overlapping 2390 would more or less guarantee the bulls that new ATHs are coming.

No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles have the bullish retrace (BR) supports in place which have held the decline so far. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, so once it bounces we would be on the look-out for an END resistance higher.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 3 – 7 Apr

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The last week of March saw the bulls come back from being a bit on the run the week before. Monday saw the market make a new low and spiked below the 50 day MA. However the bulls quickly recovered and not only did they win back the 50 day MA on an intra-day basis but the market rallied the next 3 trading sessions. Only Friday saw the bulls give back a bit. Continuing our EWT (short) analysis, the larger 3 wave correction we were mentioning got the new lows and then rallied, as warned. The rally overlapped the 1st wave low, so unless the bears turn this into a nested move down, the current move should continue to new ATHs.

No real change on the weekly cycles, but an interesting fact - the mcm-MA provided support, just as it did on the daily when it was first tested. Directionality continues it’s move down and would be interesting to see how it behaves going forward.

Weekly Cycles

An important development on the daily cycles: a bullish retrace (BR) support triggered at Monday’s low, adding weight to the assumption that the said low is important. Normally an END resistance higher is expected but for where that might show up we need to take a look at the shorter term cycles.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 27 – 31 Mar

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Last week provided the most interesting week in quite a while. For the EWT fans, the classical 3 wave bounce we were mentioning last week proved to be exactly what it seemed. And the market proceeded to resume the main trend (down) with conviction. Tuesday’s drop was impressive with 40 points between top and bottom and the market closing near the lows. Continuing with the EWT interpretations, bigger picture, the decline off the ATH looks like a 3 waver. The 3 wave bounce mentioned before being the B wave of this larger A-B-C correction. The C wave doesn’t look done, so new lows are likely, however from there it is possible that the market rallies again strongly and makes new ATHs if the decline off the ATH is just a 3 wave correction. No way to tell that now, although where the current wave down will finish will provide a good clue.

Due to the strong decline, the weekly cycles had their directionality begin to move down, in a sign that the correction is something more than just a small dent in the up trend. No other signals so far, but we are on the lookout for a potential bullish retrace (BR) support which could trigger.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. No bullish retrace (BR) support just yet, but directionality is more advanced than on the weekly, having hit its lowest level already and staying there. The initial move of directionality on the daily was a nice signal showing that the decline was not done with the 1st wave down off the ATH.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 22, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2363, 10DMA 2368,  20DMA 2370, 50DMA 2332, 100DMA 2276, 200DMA 2211

These are key Fib Levels: 2371, 2366, 2326, 2315

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2381(intermediate minor), 2355 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Good morning everyone.  Currently the red and magenta MSPs are tracking the best through the overnight so look for choppy marginally upward biased price action on the day.  Data is light again today with the FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture saw us put in our first 1% down move for 2017 ripping through the shorter timeframe DMAs and the intermediate minor level at 2355.  We currently sit at symmetry for the move down from the all time high with the first leg being 1.9% and this current leg being 2% as marked by the cyan intermediate pivot markers.  This current leg is searching for a bottom denoted by that same cyan pivot marker, so sellers need to be careful.  This fact coupled with both systems taking long trades at the close yesterday gives decent probabilities to a bounce of some kind in the very near future.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 20 – 24 Mar

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market finished a rather uneventful week, despite the FED raising rates. Wednesday provided the most interesting session, having finished 20 points above Tuesday’s close. The last 2 days saw the market retreating though. From an EWT perspective, the bounce off the low from 3/9 looks like a classical 3 wave correction so far. The next few sessions will be important to see if this is what it seems or not.

Considering the lack of major swings, the weekly cycles show no important development. The picture is still bullish, although a bigger correction to a bullish retrace (BR) support would also be possible. Directionality is still stuck at the highest level, adding to the bullish picture.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show more or less the same picture, although here directionality did move lower and is now close to its minimum. From a cycle structure perspective, the same is valid as for the weekly. They are in impulses up, so the picture is bullish, but a bigger correction to a BR support would be possible also. If that happens that BR would most likely be a buying opportunity.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 13, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2368, 10DMA 2371,  20DMA 2359, 50DMA 2309, 100DMA 2250, 200DMA 2196

These are key Fib Levels: 2388, 2384, 2358

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2359 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, March 13, 2017

Good morning everyone.  We have a super light data load this morning with only the Labor Market Conditions Index at 10:00AMEST.  With the markets successful backtest of broken resistance we should see a larger retrace of the drop from the all time high if not having that level exceeded.  The current challenge for buyers is regaining the 10DEMA and then after that the important area between 2384 and 2388 will be the next potential turn area.  We have also established two new intermediate minor levels at the all time high and below at 2359 near last weeks pivot low level.  With that, price has areas of interest both above and below current levels that has the potential to define a continued trading range and choppiness.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 13 – 17 Mar

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The action seemed to change ever since the market hit the round numbers 2 weeks ago. The market made lower lows in 4 out of 5 trading days last week. Friday saw a bounce coming, but that bounce proved weak, ending with a cross type of daily candle (close equals the open, despite the intra-day swings. Usually points to a change of trend, or indecision).

The weekly cycles saw finally a clearer retrace and “dent” in the up move. The up impulses are still fully ongoing, so the picture is still bullish.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show more clear where the decline stopped. The mcm-MA managed to provide support yet again - it did so several times in the past, so at least for now, the picture is still bullish. No new signal, except the fact that the directionality tool moved down, being the first bearish sign in a while.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter for week 6-10 March

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Last week was another one for the history books. The last 2 days of February seem uneventful in retrospect, although the market did make a new ATH on Monday before moving side-ways to lower afterwards. But March started with a bang. 15+ SPX points gap up and besting the 2400 level, which was almost 40 points higher than Tuesday’s close. Very impressive. However the round number proved to be not so lucky, as the next day we got an almost identically sized candle in the opposite direction. Friday saw the market making another low, before recovering to finish just above the close on Thursday.
The weekly cycles did not register any significant change as a result of this action. YM just confirmed the up impulse with the mcm-MA directly slicing the resistance level. ES is in an established up impulse. Interestingly the directionality tool is still at its maximum level, so that would provide a clue is the decline is more than a short-term correction, in case it moves lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are perfectly aligned with the weekly. Up impulses, directionality pegged at the highest level. They are likely to move before the weekly, which would be an early warning.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 27 Feb – 3 Mar

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

In the holiday shortened week, the market continued to defy gravity and made 2 new ATHs on Tuesday and Thursday. Apart from the initial ramp it moved more sideways, the trading range from Tuesday being surpassed only marginally.

The weekly cycles registered no significant change. Both ES and YM are above their resistance levels and YM moved closer to confirming the up impulse. The picture is bullish.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles paint the same picture. Both ES and YM are in confirmed (nested) up impulses. So the trend is up.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 21, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2352, 10DMA 2334,  20DMA 2311  50DMA 2283, 100DMA 2224, 200DMA 2178

These are key Fib Levels: 2380, 2355, 2335, 2323

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 21, 2017

With the red MSP tracking quite well up to this point odds are on a rather flat day overall.  Data is light today with only the PMI Manufacturing Index at 9:45AMEST.

MSP

While new all time highs are expected during regular trading hours, watch for broken rising support to turn into broadening resistance going forward with little in the way of support until reaching the 2345 area on any decline.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

 

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 20-24 February

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market continued its bullish character from the end of the previous week and broke out quite convincingly to the upside despite a zone of strong resistance.

As a result, the weekly cycles moved further above their resistance levels in what can be considered a break-out. ES just confirmed the up impulse (by having the mcm-MA moving above the break-out level), while YM despite needing more work before confirming an impulse, has moved significantly above the resistance level as well. These new up impulses on the weekly cycles are significant and change the intermediate term picture to bullish.

Weekly Cycles

Same thing is confirmed by the daily cycles. Both ES and YM are in confirmed (nested) up impulses.

Daily Cycles

On the 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 15, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST,  2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2325, 10DMA 2307,  20DMA 2293  50DMA 2274, 100DMA 2215, 200DMA 2172

These are key Fib Levels: 2338, 2322, 2213

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, February 15, 2017

With red, magenta and white all viable MSP options up to this point 10:00AMEST timing will be important discerning which is the most probable.  We have a health dose of economic reality today with the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30AMEST, Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Atlata Fed Business Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories, and Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST, and lastly the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

 

The technical picture still continues its relentless climb higher maintaining the most extreme of rising support and successfully backtesting broadening resistance.  On a break of the extreme rising support, another test of broadening support would be expected at the very least.  Good luck today.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 13-17 February

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

The market went sideways in the first 3 trading days of last week, not doing much of anything, before challenging and achieving new ATHs (all time highs) on Thursday and Friday.
That type of action made the weekly cycles move above their resistance levels in a manner that looks like an attempted break-out. Indeed ES is very close to confirming the up impulse (by having the mcm-MA moving above the break-out level), while YM still has work do to before it gets there.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. Both ES and YM are above their resistance levels, attempting now to form a nested up impulse.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 9, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2289, 10DMA 2287,  20DMA 2280,  50DMA 2261, 100DMA 2208, 200DMA 2166

These are key Fib Levels: 2302, 2278, 2265

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, February 9th, 2017

We have a few MSP's that are tracking reasonably well with red, white and magenta, so watch for 9:30AMEST timing to sort through them.  Data we have the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, Wholesale Trade at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture had us pull back and test broadening support yesterday before embarking on a solid rally that whipsawed the 5DEMA, 10EMA stack.  Buyers are still in control of the market as we continue to break downward sloping resistance and successfully back test it.  The market has plenty of room in both directions before touching any support and resistance so finding something solid to trade against with the exception of the all time high is going to be difficult.  Be careful out there.  Good luck.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 8, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2289, 10DMA 2287,  20DMA 2280,  50DMA 2261, 100DMA 2208, 200DMA 2166

These are key Fib Levels: 2302, 2278, 2265

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, February 8th, 2017

A light day for data with only the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  The technical picture found us at the first of a number of rising support lines at the close yesterday with momentum still on the buyers side above the 5DEMA although price action has been quite sloppy around it, neither side has been able to make much progress in recent days.  If a breach of support does take place today be cautious of a sharp reversal back above when the 5DEMA and 10DMA stack are touched.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 7, 2017

12345 (No Ratings Yet)
Loading...

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2284, 10DMA 2287,  20DMA 2278,  50DMA 2258, 100DMA 2205, 200DMA 2164

These are key Fib Levels: 2302, 2267, 2259

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 7th, 2017

Red MSP is the most probable relative to the overnight price action.  Based off that, we could be in for a real sideways kind of day.  On the economic hit list we have Redbook at 8:55AMEST, JOLTS at 10:00AMEST, and Consumer Credit at 3:00PMEST.

MSP

Barring a swift decline between now and the start of regular trading hours, we look set to open up back near Friday's highs, and with no technical breaches to speak of buyers have the current advantage.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels