S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 15, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 12:15PMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2458, 10DMA 2467,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2413, 200DMA 2340

These are key Fib Levels: 2415, 2452

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 15,  2017

Overnight price action has left a high degree of ambiguity relative to the MSP of preference so it seems the best way to approach this is to wait for the next timing at 9:30AMEST to gather some more evidence for the regular trading hours potential path.

MSP

MSP

Yesterday saw buyers close back above the 5DEMA in what appears to be a consolitory fashion, but to claim any real validity, sustained trade above the 10 and 20DMA's would be preferrable.  A retest of either the intermediate level just below at 2459, or the 50DEMA would also be highly probable after such a sharp rally.  With only an intermediate pivot marker at the lows, buyers have the advantage until a new one presents itself either here or at higher prices.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 14, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2468,  20DMA 2469, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2411, 200DMA 2338

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, August 14, 2017

Current MSP has been tracking white through the overnight which would suggest morning weakness till the afternoon portion of the session from the regular trading hours open.  Economic outlook for this morning involves Business Inventories and Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us open up above the 50DMA at present and near declining resistance, so some sort of sharp reaction downward at the open would not be surprising.  Above that we'll have the lower 2460's area providing more resistance with a stack of DMA's and an intermediate minor level.  Further down, the 2420 zone will provide support with the 100DMA, rising support and another intermediate minor levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14-18 August

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Last week saw volatility come back with a vengeance. A new ATH was reached on Tuesday with a spike-like move, but that was immediately sold off hard. SPX lost more than 50 points from that high to the low registered 2 days later. Friday ended inconclusively but very close to that low and still in, what appears to be, a crash channel. That was for sure the best feast the bears had in a while, but from an EWT stand-point it is hard to scream “the top is in”. Because the last wave into the ATH was very choppy and full of overlaps, being difficult to file that off as an impulse. Which means the B wave (into the new ATH) option we were mentioning last week is still alive and well and that does not bode well for bears. If that is indeed what we are dealing with, after this (presumed C) wave is done a new thrust to the highs will follow. Of course, strange impulse waves have been known to happen, so I would not bet the farm we’ll make new highs, but if the market stops in this general area I would keep this option in mind. The more the market continues lower, the less odds for the flat and more weight to the scenario the top is in for a while.
No change on the weekly cycles. ES is getting close to the mcm-MA again, so it would be interesting to see if it will provide support again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke back below resistance, while YM is still above and just met the mcm-MA, which seems to provide support. The up impulse is confirmed on YM, but not on ES, which is an interesting divergence. We do have a fresh new LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on ES which is also pointing up (and in favor of the EWT flat scenario).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 8, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2474, 10DMA 2474,  20DMA 2464, 50DMA 2243, 100DMA 2407, 200DMA 2330

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Yesterday's price action had us push up out of the compression pattern and we are currently back up against the all time highs.  Sustained trade above the compression pattern should be considered nothing more than a consolidation looking to push higher back towards the broadening resistance in the 2480/90 region.  Economic data is relatively light with only the Redbook at 8:55AMEST and JOLTS at 10:00AMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 2nd week of August

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The market did pretty much nothing last week, moving in a very tight range and all inside the limits of the previous Thursday’s range, which we were mentioning last week as important. This sideways move is likely to precede a strong move and it remains to be seen if that will be up or down. From an EWT standpoint this can be either a wave 2/B (part of a move lower) or a wave 4 (part of an up move). I believe the bullish option is favorite, but technically both are possible. The range from the last ATH day (7/27) are still important and good lines in the sand.

No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality didn’t make it to the max level yet, but it is still moving up.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles managed to break above resistances. ES in a rather shy manner, but YM did this in a more convincing manner, already confirming a new up impulse. This is a serious warning for bears since another long leg up could ensue. Most likely a back-test of the breakout will come soon and that back-test is all important. If it holds, then bears need to sit on the sidelines for a while; if it fails and market drops back below the resistance level, then the up momentum will be negated.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of August

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The market moved mostly sideways in the past week, seemingly trying to catch its breath after the relentless upward push. It did manage to make marginal new highs in the middle of the week and Thursday saw an head fake to a new ATH which was then sold hard, the market dropping more than 20 points. The week could’ve ended badly for bulls, but they saved the day on Friday defending Thursday’s lows, so it ended rather muted around the same levels as at the start of the week. The near term EWT picture is complicated now. It’s possible the most recent ATH was a B wave, with the strong selling that followed to be C of a flat. This option would see new highs rather directly. Or it could be that the impulsive move off that ATH is something more. Regardless of which one will play out, Thursday’s range limits are important lines in the sand - both the high and the low.
On the weekly cycles, directionality is moving back up on both indexes, which means bears were unable to change the trend. Nothing much to add except these are looking rather bullish.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in a make or break situation. Both indexes managed to move slightly above resistances, but not decisively. The resistance levels are important and might still hold, a reversal back below them acting as a warning for bulls that it was just a head-fake breakout. If the market continues to run up and breaks above successful then bears need to sit on the sidelines and wait for another inflection point that might signal a turn.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 24-28 of July

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The market continued the bullish momentum and pushed to new ATHs after a brief pull-back into mid week. The high of the week was reached on Thursday, with Friday seeing a retreat from there. Like we were saying last week - the bulls are favorites and in this environment it’s very hard (and risky) to call a top. The near term EWT option the bears still have is for this to be a B wave (off the low at 2405). And if that’s what this is, then there are enough waves for it to be complete. Of course, there are also a lot of bullish options out there, so the B wave is far from being favorite. That would change with an overlap of 2440, but that seems very far away right now.

No new development on the weekly cycles. Directionality is starting to creep back up, which would be very bullish if it made it to the maximum level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered corresponding resistances to the supports of 2 weeks ago. ES managed to spike slightly above that, while YM has respected it so far. The normal expectation now is for the market to retreat from the said resistances. In fact YM looks to be doing just that with directionality tilting lower and not being able to push past resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 17-21 of June

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The market it making history again making fresh ATH and closing very near them on Friday. It seems that the 3 waves decline we were mentioning last week (with the low at 2405) was all that it was, since we held that low and made new highs. Of course this can still be a B wave of a flat and if the market were to stop close to where we are and head down strongly, it would add weight to that scenario. But this option has to be viewed as the underdog now, so bulls are yet again favorites.

Nothing new to report on the weekly cycles. Directionality is worth keeping an eye on for early clues. We mentioned that it’s behavior was not bullish, but given this rally, that might change.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles provided an early warning to this ramp. Both ES and YM had supports triggered. ES canceled the nested up impulse, by having support trigger just below the previously broken resistance. While YM confirmed the up impulse and had a bullish retrace (BR) support. Both those supports held and were pointing up, at least until corresponding resistance level trigger.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 10-14 of June

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We are back after a 2-weeks summer holidays and it seems things got more interesting in the market with the volatility starting to pick up. The market made yet another ATH on 06/19 and then pulled back in a more volatile manner around 50 points. There is nothing to write home about for bears just yet though, since this is just a 3 waves decline so far. Therefore the low from 06/29 sitting at 2405 is important from an EWT (and bears) stand point.

No major signal on the weekly cycles expect for directionality which had an interesting development. It had a failed bounce off the lows, meaning it didn’t quite make it to the maximum level before heading down again. Normally that is quite bearish, so bulls need to take that as a warning for the near term. Just as a reminder, these cycles are still in up impulses, so the normal expectation is for the first more significant pull-back to be bought, as it should trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support which would lead to another bounce.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in a make or break position for the near term. ES didn’t quite make it to confirm a new nested up impulse, while YM did, but just barely. What happens in the next 1-2 weeks is important for how these cycles will shape up. If bulls can push here, then another leg up is to be expected, while the bears would hope to manage to turn this below the resistance levels to avoid that. In any case the said levels are important to watch.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 5, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2428, 10DMA 2431,  20DMA 2433, 50DMA 2411, 100DMA 2384, 200DMA 2295

These are key Fib Levels:  2428, 2424, 2410, 2393

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Happy post holiday everyone!  Data is looking rather robust in quantity today with MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00AMEST, US Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, Gallup US ECI at 2:00PMEST, and the all important FOMC Minutes also at 2:00PMEST.  The shortened holiday trading saw us fail to maintain the 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA stack and sold off rather abruptly into the close.  With the systems flat and the pivot marker at the most recent intermediate swing low, buyers currently old the advantage.  Their first objective is going to need to be regaining the moving averages and sustaining trade above the first declining resistance.  Intermediate levels are widely spaced here so don't be surprised to see some serious movement to find either the upper or lower near term levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 19-23 of June

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The market pulled the old “W” pattern last week, making a low on Monday, then bouncing back up to test the ATH (which it missed by 3 points), then moving in lower again to (barely) take out Monday’s low before bouncing once more. From an EWT standpoint this sideways action might be a wave 4, which means the bull count is still alive and well and still the favorite. That continues to be the case until the market will overlap the 2398-2402 area (depending on which high you consider the top of nested wave 1).

Same as for quite a while now, the weekly cycles do not show any significant change. However it is interesting to note some aspects. Namely, the mcm-MA on these cycles provided support several times when it was tested from above. Also, both YM and ES are in up impulses which are now firmly established so would normally need a regular unwind, with a bullish support (BR) and corresponding END resistance to dissipate the up energy.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are also in nested up impulses and recently broke yet again above resistance, breakout which would soon turn into another nested up impulse, unless the market reverses strongly. In fact YM will confirm in the next few days, as the mcm-MA is now crossing over resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 12-16 of June

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The market moved mostly sideways (with a light down bias) last week, before putting in some fireworks on Friday. The action on the last trading day of the week deserves more careful analysis, as the market made a new ATH at the opening of the session, but which was then strongly sold off with a 30+ points decline, before bouncing back in the last hour before the close. This type of action, with a strong and fast reversal after a new high would normally point to at least some kind of short-term top, corresponding to a 5th wave in EWT. Currently the bear (EWT) options are not obvious, and this apparent top might be very short lived and be overtaken soon, but it just might be something more. 2398 is the first level to watch for an overlap on the way down.

Weekly cycles didn’t change much, except the directionality line on YM also started to move up like we were expecting last week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are still above the resistance levels, but didn’t significantly breakout just yet. As the market moved quite near them on the lows from Friday, this can qualify as a back-test, so what the market does next week will be important for the intermediate term also. If it holds the lows and bounces, then the breakout over resistances might become another up impulse. If the market breaks below the resistance levels, then it means the initial breakout was just an overshoot and more bearish resolutions are possible.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 5-9 of June

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In the previous newsletter we were warning that the action had nothing bearish in it and the EWT more bullish scenarios were becoming favorite. The market followed through last week and pushed even higher.

Weekly cycles saw a slight change in that directionality on ES finally moved off its lowest level. YM didn’t do that just yet, but will likely follow unless the market turns soon.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered new resistances, but the market managed to break above them. The breakout is not significant just yet and may prove to be just a spike. But the further the market moves, the more likely the breakout becomes. The resistance levels are still important to watch, in case the market moves lower since if the back-test holds, that would be dangerous for bears.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 2, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2420, 10DMA 2413,  20DMA 2400, 50DMA 2378, 100DMA 2354, 200DMA 2269

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2411, 2400

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, June 2, 2017.

Happy Friday everyone!  With current price action odds favor a weak to flat day via the white MSP.  Data is light today with only the Baker Hughes Rig Count remaining at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture took a turn in the favor of buyers yet again yesterday with a breakout over the broadening resistance which now resides in the 2425 area.  Basing on this area on a pullback is a clear warning that higher prices are coming and most likely in a runaway fashion.  On the flip side, a break of the rising support sets up a high probability of a retest of the next nearest intermediate minor level at 2410.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 May -2 June

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Last week saw the market push towards new highs. There was nothing bearish about the action, quite the opposite in fact, the market being able to push past resistances and into new ATHs. From an EWT stand-point the picture is becoming increasingly complicated. The more complex correction is still possible, albeit not favourite anymore. For this to happen the market would need to turn quite soon and avoid pushing significantly higher from here. The most obvious bullish scenario is for a nested wave up from the 2320 low, which would need the market to head higher in a steep manner (continuing the action of last week)

Weekly cycles are unchanged, with directionality still at the lowest level despite the bounce.  Once that moves, it would be a confirmation that the up move is really bullish.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we saw a support level trigger also on ES (following YM). The up impulses are continuing to unwind and the next resistance levels will be very important to watch for reaction, especially since it will be a 3rd END on ES, marking the completion of the impulse.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 22-26 of May

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Last week saw the return of volatility to the market. After 2 days of consecutive new ATHs on Mon-Tue, the market saw a big down gap on Wed, which finished more than 40 points lower than the previous close. Next day we got a lower low, followed by a rebound which continued on Friday. Despite the more exciting action, we are still in the 2320-2400 chop zone, so the market is keeping its options open. From an EWT stand-point the more complex correction (started at the ATH from March 1st) scenario is gaining more weight because of the side-ways action. This would mean a flat is in the works, with wave A at the 2320 low and B either done at the recent ATH or needing a new minor high to finish. Then wave C down should follow with new lows (below 2320). Because of the overlap of 2370, the bullish scenario now became very bullish, because the only option still on the table is for a nested wave up (two series of 1-2 waves). This scenario is lower odds, though, at least at the moment because of the side-ways action.

Weekly cycles are unchanged, but directionality made it to the lowest level. That is not a bullish sign.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles held the test of resistances and moved lower and triggered some bullish signals at the lows. ES had 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for longs, while YM triggered a new support level. Those pointed up, but unless ES also triggers a new support level, it is still expected for the previous resistance to hold.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 8, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2391, 10DMA 2389,  20DMA 2368, 50DMA 2366, 100DMA 2328, 200DMA 2248

These are key Fib Levels:  2418, 2402, 2389, 2387

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, May 8, 2017

The overnight price action appears to be favoring the cyan MSP at present, but keep an eye on the regular trading hours open where timing causes very dramatic outcomes between them.  Data is very light today with Labor Market Conditions at 10:00AMEST and TD Ameritrade IMX at 12:30PMEST.

MSP

As noted on the board Friday, the sustained trade above the declining resistance resulted into a buying spree going into the close.  The overnight saw a spike even higher but has since returned to roughly the closing levels of Friday's trading session.  Above the all time highs and greater than 2410 is the most likely target.  The broken declining resistance in conjunction with the stack of 5DEMA, and 10DMA should provide support for buyers on any decline.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

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The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 4, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 10:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2387, 10DMA 2381,  20DMA 2364, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2325, 200DMA 2245

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Present price action is favoring the magenta MSP which would indicate weakness from the 8:30AMEST timing through the opening bell and then a positive bias the remainder of the day.  Data is abundant with International Trade, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, and the Gallup Good Jobs Rate at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, and lastly the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

As surmised by yesterday's update, the break of near term rising support produced a break down towards the lower intermediate minor level of 2373, but was arrested by the 10DMA.  Current price is set to open near the declining resistance level just overhead which will serve as a warning for sellers if trade is sustained above that and/or successfully backtested on a break above.  The long standing 2379 fib level was nearly tested at yesterday's lows which serves two roles going forward.  Either the failure to test the level translates to an extremely strong move higher as the correction was truncated, or the correction still requires more time and price depreciation.  Good luck today and keep an eye on premarket price action with timing and the data dump at 8:30AMEST.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 3, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2386, 10DMA 2378,  20DMA 2362, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2323, 200DMA 2244

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

We have a reasonable amount of economic data to hit the tape today with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15AMEST, Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30AMEST, and lastly the all important FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw us test and bounce off of both the broadening and rising support near the close of business yesterday and close above the 5DEMA.  A break of rising support will likely see us go down and visit the 10DMA and the 2373 intermediate minor level before finding more significant support.  Until the rising trendline is broken and trade sustains below though, buyers have control.  Good luck today and be careful around 2:00PMEST if you have any open positions.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the 1st Week of May

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The market continued to move higher last week and did so more convincingly than the previous week. It opened on Monday with a gap up of more than 20 points and Tuesday saw another opening gap up, this time smaller (around 7 points). The high of the week came very close to the ATH, before the market retreated a bit in the last 2 trading sessions. Our preferred EWT scenario (bullish) played out, despite the initial chop which had us question the validity of this (presumed) 3rd wave. Now it looks like this wave up might need another high before finishing and the coming correction from there will be telling to see if this is indeed a bullish impulse up or not. As it looks right now and in accordance with our thoughts from the previous newsletter this doesn’t look like a “real” 3rd wave up, which has us thinking it might be part of a more complex correction which started at the ATH (potentially a B wave of a flat). But we will burn that bridge once we come to it.
Weekly cycles did not trigger any new signals. Directionality is still moving lower which is a sign that it is not time to sound the all clear for the bulls just yet.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles continue to unwind the up impulses. ES triggered a 2nd END resistance, while YM also triggered an END resistance level. This is a sign that the upward energy of these impulses is dissipating. Considering that this is already a nested up impulse (an impulse following another impulse), it is unlikely that the market will have enough strength to break above these resistances and create another nested impulse. That being said, a marginal new high is not excluded, but we do not expect the resistance levels to be broken above significantly.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 24 – 28 Apr

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The market moved higher during the past week, ending around 20 points higher on a weekly basis. The low at 2320 held (despite being tested in the overnight on Monday), so our EWT preferred scenario (bullish) played out. However the move from lows was very choppy and does not resemble a 3rd wave, which our bullish scenario would point to. So it is time to re-assess since it seems this wave sequence is turning into something more complex. If someone played a long off the lows here is time to book some profits, and wait to “see more cards”, as they say in poker. The market will give us some more clues into its intentions by how the next few sessions will play out.
Not surprisingly there is no significant change on the weekly cycles. The mcm-MA test did provide support again, as pointed to last week, while directionality is continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had again a very nice signal. ES triggered a 2nd bullish retrace (BR) support after the END resistance higher. This support was respected, as the market was testing the BR support also on YM, and the market bounced. The next resistance will be a 2nd END on ES and will likely be strong if YM also triggers.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter for Week 17-21 Apr

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After moving sideways 2 weeks ago, the holiday shortened week brought a clearer direction, which was down. The market was weak in all 4 trading days and finished at the lows on Thursday. The short term EWT scenario we kept referencing is very close to a resolution now. The low close to 2320 is all important and the separation line between the bullish and the (very) bearish scenario. It did not get taken out yet, so the bullish scenario is still preferred. However the market came quite close and is still too close for comfort for the bulls. Which is why Monday is likely to bring a resolution, one way or the other. Both scenarios point to a strong next move, so the action from here will likely affect the intermediate term trend.
No big change on the weekly cycles. ES is now testing the mcm-MA again and will be interesting to see if this will provide support again. Directionality continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles saw an interesting development last week. ES triggered already an END resistance, which had shifted the expectation down once it confirmed. YM did not trigger one yet, so the support on daily YM is still valid. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, and is getting a bit long in the tooth for a bounce.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 10, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2355, 10DMA 2358,  20DMA 2359, 50DMA 2348, 100DMA 2299, 200DMA 2226

These are key Fib Levels:  2392, 2341

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2386(intermediate minor), 2354 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, April 10, 2017

With white and cyan as the most probable MSP's through the overnight session, it will be important to see what 11:00AMEST timing has to discern between the two which equates to patience for the first portion of the session.  With only the Labor Market Conditions Index at 10:00AMEST, and TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, data shouldn't pose much of a influence on price action today.

MSP

The intermediate level at 2354 continues to act as a magnet for price as we whipsaw the shorter term DMAs over and over again.  As a reminder, we still have yet to put in an cyan intermediate pivot marker at the most recent lows so sellers still have the overall bias in their favor until that takes place.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 10 – 14 Apr

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The market didn’t do much of anything last week, probably trying to prove that sideways is also a direction. We did get a higher high vs the previous week on Wednesday, but still finished the week lower. No change in our EWT (short term) scenarios - we still have a 3 wave correction from the ATH and the current bounce overlapped the 1st wave low, so the current move should continue to new ATHs, unless the bears turn this into a nested move down. The low close to 2320 is the level to beat for bears, while overlapping 2390 would more or less guarantee the bulls that new ATHs are coming.

No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles have the bullish retrace (BR) supports in place which have held the decline so far. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, so once it bounces we would be on the look-out for an END resistance higher.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 3 – 7 Apr

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The last week of March saw the bulls come back from being a bit on the run the week before. Monday saw the market make a new low and spiked below the 50 day MA. However the bulls quickly recovered and not only did they win back the 50 day MA on an intra-day basis but the market rallied the next 3 trading sessions. Only Friday saw the bulls give back a bit. Continuing our EWT (short) analysis, the larger 3 wave correction we were mentioning got the new lows and then rallied, as warned. The rally overlapped the 1st wave low, so unless the bears turn this into a nested move down, the current move should continue to new ATHs.

No real change on the weekly cycles, but an interesting fact - the mcm-MA provided support, just as it did on the daily when it was first tested. Directionality continues it’s move down and would be interesting to see how it behaves going forward.

Weekly Cycles

An important development on the daily cycles: a bullish retrace (BR) support triggered at Monday’s low, adding weight to the assumption that the said low is important. Normally an END resistance higher is expected but for where that might show up we need to take a look at the shorter term cycles.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 27 – 31 Mar

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Last week provided the most interesting week in quite a while. For the EWT fans, the classical 3 wave bounce we were mentioning last week proved to be exactly what it seemed. And the market proceeded to resume the main trend (down) with conviction. Tuesday’s drop was impressive with 40 points between top and bottom and the market closing near the lows. Continuing with the EWT interpretations, bigger picture, the decline off the ATH looks like a 3 waver. The 3 wave bounce mentioned before being the B wave of this larger A-B-C correction. The C wave doesn’t look done, so new lows are likely, however from there it is possible that the market rallies again strongly and makes new ATHs if the decline off the ATH is just a 3 wave correction. No way to tell that now, although where the current wave down will finish will provide a good clue.

Due to the strong decline, the weekly cycles had their directionality begin to move down, in a sign that the correction is something more than just a small dent in the up trend. No other signals so far, but we are on the lookout for a potential bullish retrace (BR) support which could trigger.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. No bullish retrace (BR) support just yet, but directionality is more advanced than on the weekly, having hit its lowest level already and staying there. The initial move of directionality on the daily was a nice signal showing that the decline was not done with the 1st wave down off the ATH.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 22, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2363, 10DMA 2368,  20DMA 2370, 50DMA 2332, 100DMA 2276, 200DMA 2211

These are key Fib Levels: 2371, 2366, 2326, 2315

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2381(intermediate minor), 2355 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Good morning everyone.  Currently the red and magenta MSPs are tracking the best through the overnight so look for choppy marginally upward biased price action on the day.  Data is light again today with the FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture saw us put in our first 1% down move for 2017 ripping through the shorter timeframe DMAs and the intermediate minor level at 2355.  We currently sit at symmetry for the move down from the all time high with the first leg being 1.9% and this current leg being 2% as marked by the cyan intermediate pivot markers.  This current leg is searching for a bottom denoted by that same cyan pivot marker, so sellers need to be careful.  This fact coupled with both systems taking long trades at the close yesterday gives decent probabilities to a bounce of some kind in the very near future.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 20 – 24 Mar

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The market finished a rather uneventful week, despite the FED raising rates. Wednesday provided the most interesting session, having finished 20 points above Tuesday’s close. The last 2 days saw the market retreating though. From an EWT perspective, the bounce off the low from 3/9 looks like a classical 3 wave correction so far. The next few sessions will be important to see if this is what it seems or not.

Considering the lack of major swings, the weekly cycles show no important development. The picture is still bullish, although a bigger correction to a bullish retrace (BR) support would also be possible. Directionality is still stuck at the highest level, adding to the bullish picture.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show more or less the same picture, although here directionality did move lower and is now close to its minimum. From a cycle structure perspective, the same is valid as for the weekly. They are in impulses up, so the picture is bullish, but a bigger correction to a BR support would be possible also. If that happens that BR would most likely be a buying opportunity.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 13, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2368, 10DMA 2371,  20DMA 2359, 50DMA 2309, 100DMA 2250, 200DMA 2196

These are key Fib Levels: 2388, 2384, 2358

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2359 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, March 13, 2017

Good morning everyone.  We have a super light data load this morning with only the Labor Market Conditions Index at 10:00AMEST.  With the markets successful backtest of broken resistance we should see a larger retrace of the drop from the all time high if not having that level exceeded.  The current challenge for buyers is regaining the 10DEMA and then after that the important area between 2384 and 2388 will be the next potential turn area.  We have also established two new intermediate minor levels at the all time high and below at 2359 near last weeks pivot low level.  With that, price has areas of interest both above and below current levels that has the potential to define a continued trading range and choppiness.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels