MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

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The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 28, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2596, 10DMA 2587,  20DMA 2585, 50DMA 2557, 100DMA 2509, 200DMA 2448

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 28,  2017

The overnight session, much like last nights, looks set to open higher and is taking on the characteristics of the red MSP which while a bit choppy through the early session looks to add onto the strength that started in the overnight as the session progresses.  Data is abundant today with International Trade in Goods at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST,  FHFA House Price Index and Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, and State Street Investor Confidence all coming in at 10:00AMEST,  and lastly the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

Again we challenged the rising support into the close and looks set to gap higher again this morning.  Until we trade through this level on a sustained basis then buyers still have a firm grasp on the market.  Once this level breaks we can look for the intermediate minor level at 2595 as a clear downside minimum target.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 21, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2578, 10DMA 2582,  20DMA 2579, 50DMA 2549, 100DMA 2502, 200DMA 2442

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2597(intermediate minor) 2579 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 21, 2017

With only the cyan MSP marking a low at timing through the overnight there is potential a good potential for a reversal around mid day timing and weakness all the way through the afternoon session.  Economic data today consists of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

Yesterday we found rising support at the close and sustained trade on a retest of the moving averages which has let to the overnight follow through which looks set to open well over the declining resistance level.  Price action over this area will be important because a failure to maintain above the resistance has a good probability of retracing the entire rally and head towards the 50DMA.  The key word is 'failure' though.  Sustained trade above resistance should be considered basing for a new rally leg.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 13-17th of November

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The market made new ATHs last week, which is becoming something rather ordinary. However, it ended lower on a weekly basis, after retreating 30 points from the ATH to Thursday’s low. It seems Thursdays are the most bearish inclined days in November, 2 weeks ago the Thursday saw a similar move. Both those moves were however recovered quickly, most of it even on a daily basis. No apparent change on our EWT scenario which is a terminal pattern currently unwinding 4-5 waves. Market is moving slowly higher with some “hiccups” along the way, but whether we turn after a spike higher or market just falls on its own weight after marginal new highs is hard to say.
No change in the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading up again and getting close to the maximum value.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for first Week of November

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The market moved mostly sideways last week, with a slight upward tilt. But even so, it managed to make a new ATH on Wednesday and finished the week very close to that. This is consistent with out assumption that these are sequences of 4-5 waves, from an EWT perspective, which would mean that it is a terminal pattern. No sign of a top just yet, but any impulsive decline should be viewed as a possible start of a bigger correction, so we reiterate our recommendation that bulls should avoid becoming complacent here.
No change in the weekly cycles. Up impulses continue to extend with no unwind in sight.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet, however we do have directionality coming close to the minimum level. That is not bullish, unless the price action manages to push this back up.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for last Week of October

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The market head-faked the bears last week. After a new ATH on Monday which was immediately sold, it declined 30+ points until the low it hit on Wednesday, but then the market came back strongly and made yet another new ATH on Friday, finishing close to the highs. From an EWT perspective, because this week’s low took out the low from the wedge of 2 weeks ago, these are likely sequences of 4-5 waves. Which would mean we are in a terminal pattern. Indeed there are enough waves now to count this as a complete impulse off the August low and even from the March low, so bulls should avoid being complacent.
The weekly cycles are still in up impulses with no sign of an uwind started.

Weekly Cycles

The same story is painted by the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet. In these types of patterns the faster cycles usually offer better clues in regards to a potential top.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 27, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2565, 10DMA 2561,  20DMA 2549, 50DMA 2503, 100DMA 2476, 200DMA 2415

These are key Fib Levels: 2578, 2568, 2547, 2527

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2547 (intermediate minor), 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 27, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  With GDP in the rear view mirror, data is light the rest of the day with only Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  MSP looks to be overall choppy today with not much of an advantage to be given to either side.

MSP

We look set to rally above resistance that stopped yesterday's rally, it will be important for buyers to maintain above and ideally close the day above the 5DEMA to signal a new shift in short near term momentum.  We also have a new intermediate pivot level at 2547 marking a significant point for sellers to shoot for.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 23-27 October

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The market took another 3 days to finish the wedge we were mentioning, within an annoyingly tight range. Thursday finally saw the resolution of that wedge with a decent pullback to roughly the area where the wedge started. After the market made a low there, bulls got back control with authority. Friday was very bullish, with a 10+ points gap higher and finishing at the highs. From an EWT perspective, the wedge pattern (or ending diagonal) is usually a final wave (wave 5). Considering that the market retreated to its starting point, then made new highs, it likely means that it was a wave 5 of minor degree and we are now in a new wave started at Thursday’s low. On a micro-count, it looks like the market still needs a few 4-5 waves to unwind, so it’s hard to call a top, but in case the market moves lower, Thursday’s low is all important. Overlapping that is likely confirmation that a turn started.
Still no change on the weekly cycles. No unwind in sight (bullish retrace and corresponding ENDs) and now directionality bounced and is heading higher again.

Weekly Cycles

The up impulses on the daily cycles are looking good and (still) look bullish picture. ES came very close to testing the mcm-MA on Thursday’s low before bouncing, showing that it is still providing support (which is also bullish).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 20, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2558, 10DMA 2554,  20DMA 2536, 50DMA 2294, 100DMA 2470, 200DMA 2409

These are key Fib Levels: 2564, 2536

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 20, 2017

A wild ride for yesterday's regular trading hours session brought us back to roughly flat on the day.  Data is light today with only Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  While our rising wedge patter produced a rather dramatic opening drop yesterday, it was quickly bought back up just prior to the outlined rising support and has continued through the overnight with new all time highs in the futures market.  Barring some selling in the premarket, we look set to open back up towards broadening resistance and new all time highs in the cash market as well.  Given the duration of the overall run, you'll likely see selling present itself on any contact of the broadening resistance from here on until a more substantial breakdown ensues.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 16, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2551, 10DMA 2545,  20DMA 2525, 50DMA 2287, 100DMA 2465, 200DMA 2403

These are key Fib Levels: 2566, 2530

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, October 16, 2017.

Overnight price action has tracked the cyan MSP well so a rather flat day overall is to be expected.  Data is extremely light today with only the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:ooPMEST.

MSP

Price still continues to defy gravity and the 5DEMA but has slowed its torrent ascent as buyer fatigue sets in.  Little has changed over the past few days with little to expect from sellers until the 5DEMA is closed below, at which point a trip to the low 2540's at the very least is to be expected.  Good luck today and have a great week!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 16-20 October

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The market put on the breaks last week after a very bullish start in October. It still managed to grind higher, but only slightly and this type of behavior resembles that of an EWT wedge pattern. That doesn’t mean this is the only option, as this could be just the market catching its breath before pushing higher once more, but bulls should be careful until this pattern is ruled out.
As usual, no change on the weekly cycles. The up impulses are getting long in the tooth now with no unwind (bullish retrace and corresponding ENDs), which is another reason for bulls to mark some profit and avoid getting complacent.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in clearly established up impulses as well, which reinforce the (still) bullish picture. The breakout levels (over resistances) are important in the intermediate term, in case the market starts to move lower. Otherwise any signal that these impulses start unwinding would be good clues.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 9-13 October

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The 1st week of October went to the bulls hands down. They managed a 5 green candles week, and a new ATH each day except Friday. As we have been saying for a while the bull nest off the low at 2418 is favorite and the market is acting as though that is playing out (this wave being an extended 3rd wave). That would mean that the “perfect world” EWT scenario would have us retrace back to the 2490 area after this wave is done and then push again to a new ATH for the final 5th wave of this sequence.
No change on the weekly cycles. The up impulse is ongoing and now also directionality is turning back up.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we now have new up impulses on both ES and YM. In case the next pullback triggers support in the form of a bullish retrace (BR) reaction to that signal would be important to watch.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 1st Week of October

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New week, new ATH seems to be the current turn of events. After a brief pull-back on Monday, the bulls quickly got back in the game and pushed the market to new highs. They also finished the week in style at the highs. The pullback did not manage to overlap 2480, so from an EWT perspective the bull nest off the low at 2418 is doing well (and still favorite). It now looks like we have put in a 5 wave impulse off the low at 2428, so the (presumed) 3rd wave off the 2418. The bears are running out of near-term options as the apparent bull nest is unfolding and unless they manage a rather direct overlap of 2455, the bulls are still favorites.
No change on the weekly cycles. The up impulse is alive and well and no pullback was big enough to trigger a bullish retrace.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles ES broke above resistance and held a back-test. And the up impulse also confirmed last week by having the mcm-MA also moving above resistance. That is bad news for bears. YM is now directly testing its resistance level so one last (slim) hope for the bears to turn this down in the near term.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 25-29 September

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The action seemed to slow last week, the market making a minor new high slowly into Wednesday, then pulling back slightly. From an EWT perspective, the bulls are still favorites and if this is indeed setting up as a nested move up, it should finish around 2490 and resume the up move. In the bear camp 2480 would be an important overlap and if they manage that then things might go towards getting the bull nest out of the picture.
No change on the weekly cycles. But the rally didn't go unnoticed, as directionality started to bounce .

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we are currently above the resistance on ES. The up impulse is not confirmed yet, but it will if the market continues to move up. YM triggered resistance at the high so it remains to be seen if it manages to push forward and break that as well or if this will turn things.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 20, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2501, 10DMA 2488,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2265, 100DMA 2440, 200DMA 2378

These are key Fib Levels: 2509

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 20, 2017

 

With the FED press conference after the meeting announcement this afternoon, there isn't much to be expected from the market until then.  2491 and rising support is still there for sellers to aim for and nothing overhead with the exception of broadening resistance and round number psychology.  Data we have Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST, and Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30PMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 18-22 September

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The sideways action from two weeks ago was resolved last week in the same way we got used to in the last few years - up. Last week was certainly bullish, with 5 green daily candles and several new ATHs. Although the last 3 days saw the market only grinding up, the declines were very limited, so nothing to cheer on from the bear camp. From an EWT perspective, now that the market made new highs, the favorite is still the bull option, which looks like a nested move up from the low at 2417. Even if that will not turn into a nest and will prove to be only a bigger 3 waver, it still looks like it needs a bit more up. The bear option is that this turns out to be either the flat we were mentioning in last week’s newsletter or that this overlap is not a nest, but an ending diagonal. The latter will gain weight if the market heads down and overlaps 2480 before making 5 clear waves up off 2428.
No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality is still heading lower despite the upside from this week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke above the resistance level and is close to confirming a new up impulse. That would be very bullish if it happens.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 15, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2488, 10DMA 2477,  20DMA 2459, 50DMA 2260, 100DMA 2436, 200DMA 2373

These are key Fib Levels: 2497, 2486, 2478

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, September 15, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  With the half life of ICBM launches effect on the market now but an hour or so, we've managed to retrace virtually all of last nights drop.  Perhaps a strategically placed Economic point will have more of a reaction, as such, we have Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture remains virtually unchanged with nothing more than a successful backtest of the intermediate minor level at 2491 yesterday.  There is still roughly 15 points of fudge room before coming into rising support and all but round number psychology above the ATH.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 13 , 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2475, 10DMA 2468,  20DMA 2456, 50DMA 2257, 100DMA 2434, 200DMA 2370

These are key Fib Levels: 2497, 2484, 2477

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Today is light in the data department with the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  With the systems short the current advantage is to the sellers, however, there have been two successful support outcomes from backtesting the 2491 intermediate minor level which indicates the market is still quite resilient.  We still have a good deal of space below if the market decides a pullback is in order and likely wouldn't catch rising support and moving averages till somewhere around 2477.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 11-15 September

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Last week was another sideways week. Most of the action was on Tuesday, when also a rather large range (26 points). The other 3 days in the holiday shortened week had very little volatility and didn’t move the price much. From an EWT perspective last week was significant though because Tuesday’s low overlapped the 1st high off the lows. Which means this is either a bullish nest going up or we have a rare double 3 which started at the ATH (the famous w-x-y structure or 3-3-3). I favor the double 3 instead of the flat because the B wave off the lows didn’t retrace 90% (which is required for the flat to be in place). That means the bears still have one option to head lower more immediately, but that move lower will only be 3 waves, so likely not go so much lower (compared to a flat).
No real change on the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading lower still, which could be a sign the market needs more downside action in the short term.

Daily Cycles

The daily cycles seem to add to that conclusion with resistance levels triggered at the 1st of September’s highs. Those levels become important to watch and are likely to be hard for the bulls to get past without a trip lower (and a new support).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for First Week of September

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Last week was the most bullish one in quite a while. Tuesday put in a low in the o/n on the North Korea missile test news, but from there the bulls did exactly what they needed to. They defended the previous week’s lows and moved up never looking back. They also managed to overlap 2475 which negates the most bearish scenario (a nested sequence on the downside). So while that seals an 3 wave move off the ATH, the bears do have one more option as far as EWT goes. And that is a (yet another) flat. However, there is quite a lot to be done before that takes shape (namely that 2455 is overlapped before this develops into a 5 wave sequence), so the bulls have to be viewed as favorites at this point.
On the weekly cycles, the mcm-MA continued to provide support and market bounced yet again from there. No sign of a support bullish retrace (BR) just yet.

Weekly Cycles

The supports on the daily cycles held nicely and directionality also bounced. Bulls did what they needed to and avoided a potentially very dangerous situation (an impulse down).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 29, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2444, 10DMA 2443,  20DMA 2455, 50DMA 2250, 100DMA 2421, 200DMA 2356

These are key Fib Levels: 2454, 2447, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate),

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 29, 2017

The overnight session thanks to a little help from Mr. Kim while volatile has been tracking the magenta and white MSP the best which would lend itself to a flat to down overall regular trading hours session.  Data wise we have the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Case Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, and lastly a double dose of confidence with both the Consumer and Investor Confidence Surveys coming in at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

With the pending regular trading hours gap down, the 100DMA and intermediate minor level of 2424 is a solid area of interest.  Sustained trade below that level and things get slippery with very little in the way of support levels or technical help until the psychological level at 2400 and then the intermediate level at 2383.  Buyers have their job cut out with multiple declining resistance levels and a pile of moving averages bearing down on any rally attempts, but their first target to reclaim would be 2440.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Last Week of August

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Last week seemed uneventful compared to the previous 2 weeks. Monday made a new low, albeit minor, then bulls got back in the game by protecting that low with a big up day on Tuesday. Big is a relative term, as that was “only” a bit over 20 points, nothing like the 30+ we got used to recently. The rest of the week saw sideways movement inside Tuesday’s range, so we can definitely say that the week ended undecided. From an EWT perspective we have an overlap of the first wave off the ATH, so now we have clear levels to watch for the bull/bear scenarios. The low at 2417 is all important as breaking it would mean that a nested move lower has started, which would see us a lot lower before it finished. On the upside, 2475 is the level to beat for bulls to be out of the woods (at least for now) as this would seal in a likely a-b-c down from ATH, which would mean new highs should follow.
On the weekly cycles, the mcm-MA did provide support yet again on ES, as we were saying last week. It remains to be seen if it will continue to do so.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles both put in supports. ES triggered had already support at the lows from the initial drop off the ATH, while YM reversed it’s nested up impulse to put in a fresh support at this week’s lows. Interesting that directionality is still stuck at the lowest level, which is a warning the bulls need to do a bit more heavy lifting to get a more significant bounce going.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21-25 August

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Last week was very spectacular and continued with even higher volatility than 2 weeks ago. After gaping up and moving higher into Wednesday, Thursday was again a bad omen for the markets (just like 2 weeks ago) and saw a big 30+ points decline in a single day. The market did break the low from 2 weeks ago, which means that something (i.e.an impulse wave) did finish at the ATH, despite it’s strange shape. The retrace of the first move lower from the ATH was quite big (more than 70%) and so far this looks like only 3 waves from there, so we are still in no position to scream “the top is in”. The action was certainly very bearish with the market apparently restarting to take the stairs up and the elevator down, as 3 days of slow up action were reversed in a single day, which also saw the previous weeks’ lows taken out. So it’s worth noting this change in character. From an EWT stand point there are too many options on the table right now to make a clear call. If the market stops here or a bit lower (2410-2420 is important support), then it could be just an a-b-c down, with new ATH to follow. If this is indeed the start of something more bearish, then this wave should continue significantly lower. Monday’s action looks to be key for the intermediate trend.
On the weekly cycles, ES is testing the mcm-MA directly, so bulls may try to defend this level again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles also are directly on the support levels. ES triggered support at the lows from 2 weeks ago and is now working on breaking below. While YM is back-testing the previously broken resistance level. Both indexes have consecutive LREs (lower risk entries) for longs.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 15, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 12:15PMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2458, 10DMA 2467,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2413, 200DMA 2340

These are key Fib Levels: 2415, 2452

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 15,  2017

Overnight price action has left a high degree of ambiguity relative to the MSP of preference so it seems the best way to approach this is to wait for the next timing at 9:30AMEST to gather some more evidence for the regular trading hours potential path.

MSP

MSP

Yesterday saw buyers close back above the 5DEMA in what appears to be a consolitory fashion, but to claim any real validity, sustained trade above the 10 and 20DMA's would be preferrable.  A retest of either the intermediate level just below at 2459, or the 50DEMA would also be highly probable after such a sharp rally.  With only an intermediate pivot marker at the lows, buyers have the advantage until a new one presents itself either here or at higher prices.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 14, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2468,  20DMA 2469, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2411, 200DMA 2338

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, August 14, 2017

Current MSP has been tracking white through the overnight which would suggest morning weakness till the afternoon portion of the session from the regular trading hours open.  Economic outlook for this morning involves Business Inventories and Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us open up above the 50DMA at present and near declining resistance, so some sort of sharp reaction downward at the open would not be surprising.  Above that we'll have the lower 2460's area providing more resistance with a stack of DMA's and an intermediate minor level.  Further down, the 2420 zone will provide support with the 100DMA, rising support and another intermediate minor levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14-18 August

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Last week saw volatility come back with a vengeance. A new ATH was reached on Tuesday with a spike-like move, but that was immediately sold off hard. SPX lost more than 50 points from that high to the low registered 2 days later. Friday ended inconclusively but very close to that low and still in, what appears to be, a crash channel. That was for sure the best feast the bears had in a while, but from an EWT stand-point it is hard to scream “the top is in”. Because the last wave into the ATH was very choppy and full of overlaps, being difficult to file that off as an impulse. Which means the B wave (into the new ATH) option we were mentioning last week is still alive and well and that does not bode well for bears. If that is indeed what we are dealing with, after this (presumed C) wave is done a new thrust to the highs will follow. Of course, strange impulse waves have been known to happen, so I would not bet the farm we’ll make new highs, but if the market stops in this general area I would keep this option in mind. The more the market continues lower, the less odds for the flat and more weight to the scenario the top is in for a while.
No change on the weekly cycles. ES is getting close to the mcm-MA again, so it would be interesting to see if it will provide support again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke back below resistance, while YM is still above and just met the mcm-MA, which seems to provide support. The up impulse is confirmed on YM, but not on ES, which is an interesting divergence. We do have a fresh new LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on ES which is also pointing up (and in favor of the EWT flat scenario).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 8, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2474, 10DMA 2474,  20DMA 2464, 50DMA 2243, 100DMA 2407, 200DMA 2330

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Yesterday's price action had us push up out of the compression pattern and we are currently back up against the all time highs.  Sustained trade above the compression pattern should be considered nothing more than a consolidation looking to push higher back towards the broadening resistance in the 2480/90 region.  Economic data is relatively light with only the Redbook at 8:55AMEST and JOLTS at 10:00AMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 2nd week of August

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The market did pretty much nothing last week, moving in a very tight range and all inside the limits of the previous Thursday’s range, which we were mentioning last week as important. This sideways move is likely to precede a strong move and it remains to be seen if that will be up or down. From an EWT standpoint this can be either a wave 2/B (part of a move lower) or a wave 4 (part of an up move). I believe the bullish option is favorite, but technically both are possible. The range from the last ATH day (7/27) are still important and good lines in the sand.

No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality didn’t make it to the max level yet, but it is still moving up.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles managed to break above resistances. ES in a rather shy manner, but YM did this in a more convincing manner, already confirming a new up impulse. This is a serious warning for bears since another long leg up could ensue. Most likely a back-test of the breakout will come soon and that back-test is all important. If it holds, then bears need to sit on the sidelines for a while; if it fails and market drops back below the resistance level, then the up momentum will be negated.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of August

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The market moved mostly sideways in the past week, seemingly trying to catch its breath after the relentless upward push. It did manage to make marginal new highs in the middle of the week and Thursday saw an head fake to a new ATH which was then sold hard, the market dropping more than 20 points. The week could’ve ended badly for bulls, but they saved the day on Friday defending Thursday’s lows, so it ended rather muted around the same levels as at the start of the week. The near term EWT picture is complicated now. It’s possible the most recent ATH was a B wave, with the strong selling that followed to be C of a flat. This option would see new highs rather directly. Or it could be that the impulsive move off that ATH is something more. Regardless of which one will play out, Thursday’s range limits are important lines in the sand - both the high and the low.
On the weekly cycles, directionality is moving back up on both indexes, which means bears were unable to change the trend. Nothing much to add except these are looking rather bullish.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in a make or break situation. Both indexes managed to move slightly above resistances, but not decisively. The resistance levels are important and might still hold, a reversal back below them acting as a warning for bulls that it was just a head-fake breakout. If the market continues to run up and breaks above successful then bears need to sit on the sidelines and wait for another inflection point that might signal a turn.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 24-28 of July

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The market continued the bullish momentum and pushed to new ATHs after a brief pull-back into mid week. The high of the week was reached on Thursday, with Friday seeing a retreat from there. Like we were saying last week - the bulls are favorites and in this environment it’s very hard (and risky) to call a top. The near term EWT option the bears still have is for this to be a B wave (off the low at 2405). And if that’s what this is, then there are enough waves for it to be complete. Of course, there are also a lot of bullish options out there, so the B wave is far from being favorite. That would change with an overlap of 2440, but that seems very far away right now.

No new development on the weekly cycles. Directionality is starting to creep back up, which would be very bullish if it made it to the maximum level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered corresponding resistances to the supports of 2 weeks ago. ES managed to spike slightly above that, while YM has respected it so far. The normal expectation now is for the market to retreat from the said resistances. In fact YM looks to be doing just that with directionality tilting lower and not being able to push past resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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