S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 18, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2669, 10DMA 2652,  20DMA 2649, 50DMA 2685, 100DMA 2700, 200DMA 2601

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2777, 2749

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Data is light today with the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST and the Feds Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.  Yesterday's price action squirted out of the rising wedging pattern and used the 100DMA as a basing area for today's rally continuation.  As noted in previous updates, a break to the upside is going to have room to run and will most likely find the upper 2700 range before a more meaningful turn can take place.  For the near term though we have a decent amount of support with both the 100 and 50DMAs under price and an intermediate minor level at 2695 splitting the difference.  Once we find the upper 2720's there is potential for a reaction off of the intermediate minor level of 2729 and declining resistance.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 16, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2636, 10DMA 2632,  20DMA 2653, 50DMA 2693, 100DMA 2697, 200DMA 2597

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2704, 2462, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, April 16, 2018

We have a couple items of note first thing today with Business Inventories and the Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.  While the market has broken out of the near term rising wedge that was pointed out last week, it appears to be carving out a larger fractal of the same pattern especially give today's price action.  The outcome is the same even though the timeline has shifted.  A dramatic break out or down will occur when this pattern is satisfied.  Buyers have been reclaiming the 5DEMA on a closing basis so momentum traders are betting on a rally.  We also have an intermediate pivot marker at the most recent pivot high.  Ideally for a full structure we should see another marginal pivot high possibly in a spiking format with a swift reversal if the sellers are to own this.  Otherwise get comfortable on the buy side because this is going to run.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 12, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2635, 10DMA 2626,  20DMA 2658, 50DMA 2696, 100DMA 2696, 200DMA 2596

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2704, 2462, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, April 12, 2018

Today's data is front end loaded with Jobless Claims and Import/Export Prices at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  The technical side of things has yet to clarify its intentions as price continues to oscillate around the primary minor level at 2650 and buyers have been able to reclaim the 5DMA on a closing basis which gives them a slight advantage of near term momentum.  We've broken down marginally out of yesterday's rising wedge which opens up a potential run down to 2620 and the 10DMA along with the next layer of rising support.  Overhead there is a newly established declining resistance along with the 20DMA in the 2665 to 2670 region that will provide the dividing line between more consolidation and a run at the 100DMA and 2700 level.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 28, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2643, 10DMA 2689,  20DMA 2711, 50DMA 2736, 100DMA 2692, 200DMA 2587

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2688, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 28,  2018

With an inordinate amount of data to hit today things could be a little choppy as we have GDP, International Trade Corporate Profits, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30AMEST, Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, and Farm Prices at 3:00PMEST.  Price made a solid attempt at an initial base off of the 2650 Primary minor level before encountering the 5DEMA and a slew of momentum sellers that shoved trade all the way back down to near the 200DMA and rising support along with the intermediate minor level at 2595 which ultimately arrested the fall.  The range between 2690 and 2770 is now very thin as a result of price traversing this area numerous times between the levels and price will have a tendency to move through this space swiftly as was witnessed in yesterday's decline, so be cautious when initiating trades in this area because they could go against you quickly.  Anything between yesterday's highs and lows is wrought with danger so it would be best to play the edges of that range.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 27, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2663, 10DMA 2704,  20DMA 2717, 50DMA 2739, 100DMA 2692, 200DMA 2586

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2688, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Tuesday, March 27,  2018

Data is abound today with the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Case Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, and Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 10:00AMEST.  The technical side of the house extended the rally off the 200DMA and sliced through the intermediate and primary minor levels mentioned in yesterday's update as a most probable near term target.  The next area of interest will the the 2690's with declining resistance, intermediate minor level, and the 100DMA.  Any basing that takes place on the primary minor level at 2650 should be considered a launch pad for the run towards 2690.  A failure of the 2650 zone opens the door for sellers to make another attack on the 200DMA and the levels in the upper 2500's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 19, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2751, 10DMA 2750,  20DMA 2735, 50DMA 2748, 100DMA 2691, 200DMA 2585

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Monday, March 19, 2018

Today the market is spared from the economist with no releases to speak of.  We are set to open markedly lower this morning down near the 20DMA below 2740.  Reasonably decent support should come into play at the 2727 intermediate minor level and broadening support which price has been sliding down the past few days.  A breach of that most likely takes us back below 2700 and to the next lower intermediate level with the 100DMA.  Overhead we have both a primary and intermediate pivot marker in play along with declining resistance and primary and intermediate levels all clustered just above 2780.  Between the two is a range racing paradise.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 14, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2760, 10DMA 2733,  20DMA 2727, 50DMA 2745, 100DMA 2680, 200DMA 2574

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Wednesday, March 14, 2018

The Remaining data for today's session consists of the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations and Business Inventories at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  Yesterday saw us hit the psychological 2800 level before selling off back to the 5DEMA  where momentum traders stepped back into the fray.  With broadening and rising support coupled with the moving averages and intermediate minor level at 2727 should prove to be solid support for buyers.  Below that zone and things get thin at least back down to the intermediate minor level and 100DMA in the upper 2600 zone.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 9, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2721, 10DMA 2726,  20DMA 2703, 50DMA 2739, 100DMA 2673, 200DMA 2568

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Friday, March 9, 2018

With present premarket price action, the market looks set to open up above the 50DMA and into declining resistance.  With the basing on the intermediate minor level at 2727 and a lack of new intermediate pivot marker yet to be established, it would be wise to be patient if looking to play from the short side.  There is a good deal of thin air between the intermediate minor level of 2727 and 2790 if trade is sustained above declining resistance.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 7, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2706, 10DMA 2720,  20DMA 2699, 50DMA 2737, 100DMA 2670, 200DMA 2561

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 7, 2018

The overnight price action was a sellers delight with price dropping over 40 points in less than an hours time.  The implications on the cash chart are going to have us breaking the rising support after multiple failed attempts at the intermediate minor level at 2727.  We are currently set to open between the 5DEMA and the 20DMA and have a intermediate minor level just underneath at 2695.  We'll need to look for some confirmation by way of an intermediate pivot marker upon open at yestarday's highs.  Should sellers be able to push price below rising support and the 100DMA at 2670 then a much more severe decline becomes a high probability.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 5, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2721, 10DMA 2720,  20DMA 2697, 50DMA 2736, 100DMA 2666, 200DMA 2561

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, March 5, 2018

Data is light today to start out the trading week as we have PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST, and the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30AMEST.  As was to be expected leading into this mornings update, buyers stepped in at the primary minor level of 2651 and put a floor under the market and would up closing it 40 points higher at the intermediate minor level just under the psychological 2700 level.  The structure off the lows is a clear inverted head and shoulders pattern with the two shoulders bouncing off the 100DMA and targets the 5DEMA, 50DMA, and 10DMA stack along with the intermediate minor level in the 2720 to 2730 zone.  That will be an area of high interest for both buyers and sellers.  Given the intermediate pivot markers, the present structure down from the all time highs is converging into a compression pattern, and given the size, should have a very impressive resolution regardless of the direction of the break.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 1st week of March

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The market made a lower high last week, very close to the 76,4% retrace of the entire decline off the ATH and then dropped with conviction. More than 140 points from the high registered on Tuesday, to the lows on Friday. From there, it managed to bounce but the market looks to be in a dangerous set-up for longs. As the 1st wave down from the ATH was more than 300 points, if this lower high holds, we might get another wave down of at least equal (but usually greater) strength.
No big changes in the weekly cycles. The move lower off the ATH did turn directionality down and this has continued to move down, despite the convincing bounce off the lows. That is usually a bearish sign and likely means the bounce will eventually be sold.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had triggered supports in the form of bullish retraces (BR) at the lows and now ES also triggered a corresponding END resistance at the lower high. This means that level is very significant and likely is strong resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 1, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2737, 10DMA 2726,  20DMA 2711, 50DMA 2736, 100DMA 2663, 200DMA 2558

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for March 1, 2018

We have a respectable amount of data set to hit the tape this morning in way of PMI Manufacturing Index and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  Buyers are going to have their work cut out for them as we knifed through to the very lower bound of the stacked daily moving averages and the 2727 intermediate minor level.  The overnight pushed through to the upper 2600's but has since recovered and looks set to open the cash market at roughly flat.  As emphasized yesterday, a failure of this area is going to produce a rapid descent down to broadening resistance, the 100DMA, and the intermediate minor level at 2650 area.  If buyers can manage a recover back above the 50DMA and establish a base there, then and only then would the perceived downside move be called into question.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 28, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2735, 10DMA 2221,  20DMA 2716, 50DMA 2734, 100DMA 2662, 200DMA 2557

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Data is light from this point forward today with only the Chicago PMI at 945AMEST, Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  The technical picture has drawn such a clear line in the sand since we failed to maintain the primary minor level at 2779.  With the intermediate minor level at 2727 and a massive confluence of daily moving averages between 2740 and 2720 coupled with rising support, a failure here is all but assured to cause a cascading effect down to the 100DMA and next primary minor level at 2650 at the very least if not more.  Good luck today and be vigilant.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 27, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2729, 10DMA 22712,  20DMA 2721, 50DMA 2733, 100DMA 2660, 200DMA 2555

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Today's data is abound starting with Durable Goods, International Trade, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Case-Shiller Home Price Index and FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 10:00AMEST, and lastly, Farm Prices at 3:00PMEST.  The technical side of the house had us base on the 10DMA and just below the intermediate minor level at 2727 along with the 20 and 50DMA's before knifing higher.  This general area becomes important at yesterday's highs with the generation of a new primary minor level which sellers can build a second opportunity to send the market much lower from should the 2730 area fail.  Rising support coming through the 2760 level will be the first clue whether sellers are gaining an upper hand in the next potential leg down.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 19, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2696, 10DMA 2670,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2725, 100DMA 2649, 200DMA 2546

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

An easy start to a shortened trading week with no data points to concern ourselves with.  Last weeks technical picture should put sellers on alert as we broke over the intermediate minor level at 2725, the 50DMA, and declining resistance.  It will be important for sellers shove this back under these levels as quickly as possible lest risk a buyers basing process.  Given the distance between intermediate minor levels a basing process has the potential to open up a quality upside move back into the lower 2800's where as a failure here has the exact opposite effect with the next lower primary minor level being in the mid 2600's.  Be mindful of the round number psychology and rising support at the 2700 level and good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the week of 19-25 February

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The market managed to bounce back from the lows registered on the previous Friday and last week saw only green daily candles painting. It reached now a bit higher than the 61,8% retrace of the entire decline from ATH, which is quite an achievement considering how vicious the drop was.

The weekly cycles have shown a warning for the bears, by having LRE (lower risk entries) for longs at the lows from 2 weeks ago. ES even triggered a 2nd consecutive LRE at the higher low from last week. Big picture is still unchanged on this time frame, with the up impulses still established, but this correction was big enough that it could trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support at the lows.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show a more zoomed-in picture of the decline and subsequent bounce. They were also showing LREs for longs, albeit a bit early. More importantly they triggered bullish retraces (BR) supports on both ES and YM. The market bounced strongly from there and basically a corresponding END could trigger any time, which doesn't mean it cannot trigger much higher from here.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 9, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2673, 10DMA 2756,  20DMA 2782, 50DMA 2719, 100DMA 2638, 200DMA 2538

These are key Fib Levels:   2448

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, February 9,  2018

Data to close out the week is light with only Wholesale Trade at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw more weakness present itself yesterday as sellers stepped back into the fray.  Fibonacci points to a symmetry zone all the way down at 2448 which also coincides with a 23.6% retrace of the rally from the 2011 lows.  There is a good deal of potential for choppiness in this general area as a result of the intermediate minor levels stacked together, of which we tested the second layer of yesterday.  Overhead we now have established two declining resistance levels and a potential for a wedging pattern although that doesn't seem very probable given the symmetry target, but it is something to be mindful of in the event the structure is skewed upward as a result of buying pressures.  Good luck today and have an outstanding weekend everyone!

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 8, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2750, 10DMA 2797,  20DMA 2794, 50DMA 2718, 100DMA 2635, 200DMA 2535

These are key Fib Levels:   2763

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, February 8, 2018

Given the primary and intermediate levels charts are repopulating, today's update will use a regular SPX chart.  Data for today Is light with just the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  While the bounce off the lows is still corrective in nature, there hasn't been any indication of sellers reasserting themselves which lends some to the idea that the initial drop is going to take some time to consolidate itself before making another larger move direction to be determined.  An Idealized correction would find itself peaking around the 2763 to 2365 area which hosts a confluence of Fibonacci retrace and extension targets and declining resistance.  Rising support will come into play in the  in the mid 2660's.  Inside this expanded range is a bears den wrought with hazards so be nimble and flexible if you plan on playing this area.  Good luck today!

SPX

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 6, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2775, 10DMA 2812,  20DMA 2797, 50DMA 2716, 100DMA 2633, 200DMA 2533

These are key Fib Levels:  2640

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor) 2595(intermediate minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Data is light today in what is set to be another drubbing for buyers with only the JOLTS report at 10:00AMEST.  The futures market found its 200DMA in the overnight and then promply recovered back to the 100DMA.  Present price is set to open in the intermediate minor level cluster primarily between 2595 and 2577.  It will be important for buyers to establish themselves in this area, but given that the futures market tested the 200DMA, that puts very good odds on the cash market replicating the move.  Be extremely careful today because an errant entry could prove to be catastrophic. Good luck.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 5, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2838, 10DMA 2835,  20DMA 2799, 50DMA 2611, 100DMA 2629, 200DMA 2530

These are key Fib Levels:  2845, 2851

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(intermediate minor) 2811 (intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, February 5, 2018

We hope everyone had a great weekend!  Price continues to decline unabated as was though to be the case once the 20DMA let go.  The most probable target now is the 50DMA and rising support in the lower 2700 region that should provide some relief for buyers to gather enough momentum to make at least a bounce attempt from if not more.  Anyone looking for the long side would be well advised to be nimble and choose your entries with strictly defined demarcation points.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 2nd week of February

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Finally the market stopped the relentless up move and had a rather panicky turn. A drop of more than 100 SPX points in one week is definitely something that draws attention, but it was not only that. The market character seems to have changed also, as the market sliced through supports like they were not even there. This is definitely the first sign of the bear in quite a long time.
The weekly cycles, show just how overextended the market was until last week. The nested up impulse traveled more than 600 points and more than 1 year without any correction big enough to qualify for a bullish retrace (BR). That is rather unusual both in terms of both price and time.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show the same story as the weekly, although the last up impulses started only in October 2017. But they also traveled a whooping 400 points without any retrace. This correction looks as the first serious one and we already have a lower risk entry (LRE) for longs at Friday's lows, which doesn't mean it's over, but the next low might be greeted with a new one, which would have to be taken seriously.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 29, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2844, 10DMA 2819,  20DMA 2777, 50DMA 2691, 100DMA 2614, 200DMA 2520

These are key Fib Levels:  2856

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, January 29, 2018

Hopefully everyone had a great weekend.  Data for today is light with only Personal Income and Outlays at 8:30AMEST, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.  Friday's vertical ascent neared broadening resistance and looks set to consolidate some of those gains this morning as we are currently positioned to open lower.  The first challenge for sellers is going to be in the low 2860's to upper 2850's where they will encounter the first line of horizontal support and depending on the speed of the decline potentially the first traces of rising support.  The way the 5DEMA has been respected throughout the duration of this leg has been absolutely astounding which means momentum traders are firmly entrenched in this move.  With that being said, it means the opposite will hold true.  When this move comes to a close, they are going to hit the exits in a hurry which is going to be scary for the uninitiated.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 26, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2823, 10DMA 2800,  20DMA 2754, 50DMA 2680, 100DMA 2607, 200DMA 2515

These are key Fib Levels:  2849, 2816

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, January 26, 2018

Happy Friday everyone!  We have a few big ticket items in the economic data department today with Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and International Trade all coming in at 8:30AMEST and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical side of the house saw a marginally weak day yesterday with a minor breach of rising support followed by momentum traders stepping in to arrest the fall just prior to the 5DEMA.  At present price is in a compression pattern which still lends an advantage to buyers so long as the previous swing lows hold.  Below the that pivot and sellers take control down to the 2800 level where buyers will be lying in wait for the next battle in price direction.  We also have a reasonably solid declining resistance in place which will serve as an early warning to sellers that the next leg higher may be getting under way if breached.  The target area for the compression pattern breakout would be in the 2880 region.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 24, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2816, 10DMA 2791,  20DMA 2747, 50DMA 2675, 100DMA 2603, 200DMA 2513

These are key Fib Levels:  2843, 2846

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 24, 2018

We have a reasonable amount of data today with PMI Composite Flash at 9:45AMEST, Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  Price popped over broadening resistance and continued to base on it yesterday which has the potential to lead to more runaway price action.  It will be important for sellers to arrest this as soon as possible for them to have any hope.  Rising support comes into play in the 2830 to 2825 should sellers be able to put together a resistance.  Good luck today.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 17, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2765, 10DMA 2745,  20DMA 2715, 50DMA 2652, 100DMA 2584, 200DMA 2401

These are key Fib Levels: 2798, 2789 

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, Janurary 17, 2018

Today's data is abundant with MBA Morgage Applications at 7:00AMEST, Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST, and the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.  After overthrowing broadening resistance sellers stepped in and managed to completely reverse the gap on the day and pull the market back to near the 5DEMA.  So long as sellers can defend the 2798 level they have the potential to build a larger decline, but while the decline was dramatic, there is no technical indications of a reversal at present especially since momentum buyers were eager to buy up the 5DEMA.  Sellers next target would be to test the area between 2760 and 2750 and close for the session below the 5DEMA upon a break of yesterday's lows.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2742, 10DMA 2716,  20DMA 2696, 50DMA 2640, 100DMA 2574, 200DMA 2495

These are key Fib Levels:  2756, 2741, 2736

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 10,  2017

Today's data consists of Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture has us up against declining resistance after cleanly bouncing off the 5DEMA as momentum players stepped back into the fray.  Given the current overnight price action we are currently marginally above the declining support but it is premature to read into that too much because price can do a lot of things between now and the opening bell.  Until a close below the 5DEMA buyers still have a firm grasp on overall market direction, and a break of the declining resistance would give more validity to that fact remaining valid.  The 2725 to 2530 zone will still be a solid area of defense for buyers should the sellers be able to push price down even further.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 9, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2724, 10DMA 2703,  20DMA 2686, 50DMA 2633, 100DMA 2568, 200DMA 2491

These are key Fib Levels:  2765

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, January 9,  2017

The data flow today is again light with only the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:00AMEST, the Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, nd the JOLTS Report at 10:00AMEST.  Very little has changed from yesterday's update as price continued to push up against the all time highs in a small broadening formation and continues to levitate above the broken broadening resistance now potentially support.  The first major challenge area on any pullback is going to be in the 2725 to 2730 zone with the most substantial consolidation area of this run and an accompanying gap out of it.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 8, 2018

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 2765

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2709, 10DMA 2696,  20DMA 2681, 50DMA 2629, 100DMA 2565, 200DMA 2489

These are key Fib Levels:  2732

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, January 8,  2017

Data is virtually nonexistent today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index release at 12:30PMEST.  Friday's price action extended us out over broadening resistance and well above the 5DEMA which should lead to some consolidation in the near term.  Seeing what kind of reaction takes place on a retest of the now potential rising support will be important.  A failure from this level hints that a run back at the lower bound is highly probable and a quality fifty point swing at this stage back to the 2690's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

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The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 28, 2017

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Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2596, 10DMA 2587,  20DMA 2585, 50DMA 2557, 100DMA 2509, 200DMA 2448

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 28,  2017

The overnight session, much like last nights, looks set to open higher and is taking on the characteristics of the red MSP which while a bit choppy through the early session looks to add onto the strength that started in the overnight as the session progresses.  Data is abundant today with International Trade in Goods at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST,  FHFA House Price Index and Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, and State Street Investor Confidence all coming in at 10:00AMEST,  and lastly the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

Again we challenged the rising support into the close and looks set to gap higher again this morning.  Until we trade through this level on a sustained basis then buyers still have a firm grasp on the market.  Once this level breaks we can look for the intermediate minor level at 2595 as a clear downside minimum target.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail