mcm daily market update 11.Mar.21

ST trend: up (with potential topping pattern)

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down with potential bottoming attempt as FGSI continued to show unconfirmed low set-ups. We did mention that ML and macro-ML were the key levels for the trend and that proved once again true. Price continued lower, back-tested ML, rejected to new lows, then had a larger bounce off RTH open to test macro-ML, rejected there and pushed once more to new lows. Buyers managed to take control after that, as FGSI continued to refuse to confirm those lows and had a very impressive bounce to win back ML and macro-ML.

The o/n had a head-fake drop below macro-ML and ML, which was quickly bought to new highs. Then another ML back-test before it continued higher. Buyers were already making good progress and got and additional help from Russia as apparently "positive progress" in the talks with Ukraine is worth a 60+ point ramp. We are in an extended situation near term as both FGSI and IGSI are at extreme optimism, however danny continues to act as support for price and as long as that happens more immediate upside is possible. In order to keep the new found up trend intact, buyers would need to hold ML on any potential back-test.

mcm daily market update 9.Mar.22

ST trend: up (with potential topping pattern)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down as price made lower lows in the o/n and buyers had stepped in to push a bounce into a ML back-test. We noted that what would happen at ML would be important. Price was indeed rejected at ML, went lower to test the o/n lows, before staging a very impressive rally all the way to macro-ML. Then the market did the same as the prior day (similarities to which we noted as well). It went to macro-ML and failed there quickly after, lost ML on the way down and came back to the lows, erasing almost the entire pop.

The o/n proved once more that the market likes to trap both sides in this high VIX environment. The close near the lows was a trap and the market ramped 90 points o/n. Buyers won back ML again and erased almost the entire drop. The action is likely to remain volatile (with VIX at 35+ it's no surprise) and even if buyers managed to step in hard, the next inflection (area near yesterday's HOD and macro-ML) is important to keep an eye on. If price stalls there and buyers fail to make head-way above macro-ML, then we could see yet another trip to the lows.

mcm daily market update 7.Mar.22

ST trend: down (with bottoming attempt ongoing)

On Friday we noted that the ST trend was down as sellers pushed prices to lows at the all important 4280 lvl and then rejected price at ML. We mentioned that ML might be back-tested again and also that "bounces are sell opportunities, until proven otherwise". Both came to pass, ML was back-tested and price rejected there once again and sold off to retest the lows, before bouncing back near ML, holding there until the close.

Sunday saw yet another gap down and flush move, as the optimism that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would get solved over the w/e didn't come to pass. We broke Friday's o/n lows and reached 4240 before buyers finally stepped in and bounce price right back to ML. Now we are directly in a big inflection area at ML. Buyers overshoot it, but failed to put some distance to it. So this can be yet another ML back-test which rejects price. ML has proven to be a brick wall of resistance so far, so that would not be surprising. If buyers manage to hold price above ML and keep pushing higher to put some distance to ML, then we might have at least a ST bottom at the o/n lows. Next could of hours and especially how market acts after RTH open will be key for that.

mcm daily market update 4.Mar.22

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. The latter was showing a potential large divergence set-up, which normally points to a large decline (80-100 points). It didn't play out exactly, as the prior high was surpassed, but it proved to be correct in the end. We did mention "4400-4420 area has a lot of resistances (classic TA - descending trend lines, 200DMA and BC on daily) and is a VERY tough nut to crack, so risk/reward doesn't favor longs here". The market stopped right near 4420 and then dropped 100+ points.

The o/n proved that sellers were indeed in full control. It dropped to test the important 4280 support and bounced 80 points, with buyers attempting to win back ML, but failing spectacularly after that. Now buyers are attempting to hold the area near the prior higher low from the o/n and FGSI is showing a potential unconfirmed low here. That doesn't mean the decline is over, but if buyers do manage to step in here (break above danny would help), then we might see another ML back-test, which would then be the big inflection point (ML is key for the near term trend). For now sellers are in control, at least until buyers can win back ML on a sustained basis. So bounces are sell opportunities, until proven otherwise.

mcm daily market update 28.Feb.22

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as the market had consolidated in the o/n following the push on Thursday and was back-testing ML. We did mention that "As long as buyers hold ML, they could continue to push higher immediately" and that played out nicely. ML held price and buyers pushed to gain macro-ML as well, which had a text book back-test before the final push upwards. Mkt closed Friday' session at the highs, which proved to be a bull trap.

Sunday opened with a huge gap down based on the escalation to Russia-Ukraine conflict and the 1st use of the words "nuclear deterrent". Despite the big gap down, sellers didn't accomplish too much, as buyers managed to step in and stick save ML. Further on, sellers dropped the ball as FGSI showed they became inefficient on pullbacks. ML continues to be the KEY line in the sand for the ST trend. If buyers can continue to hold it as support, this can go to RTH gap fill which will be the next upper inflection point. Alternatively, if sellers manage to break below ML and take out the 1st bearish EE level (just below ML), then that would indicate that this decline wants to go deeper.

mcm daily market update 25.Feb.22

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down with potential bottoming attempt. At the time we were testing the unconfirmed low on FGSI and it looked like the final low wasn't in yet. But buyers held that low (narrowly) and after the RTH open never looked back. We had a huge up day and TTs showed us that the mkt character changed, as danny held as support all day. Buyers had a huge win reversing the entire large gap, winning back ML and actually ending the day very green. Price finally stopped at the macro-ML test.

The o/n saw the expected pullback to ML, as the mkt was very extended immediate term (FGSI at extreme optimism and sell zones on its chart). Buyers held ML so far, which is constructive for higher prices. For today the situation is pretty straight forward. As long as buyers hold ML, they could continue to push higher immediately. If ML is lost, then a deeper pullback is possible. Buyers do not want to see this heading much lower than 4200, with 4150 being the MUST defend lvl (bullish EE on FGSI vs that level).

mcm daily market update 22.Feb.22

ST trend: up

The market had some wild swings both ways since Friday's close. As the cash market was closed for the holiday on Monday, the algos had some fun, making a lower low on Sunday, then 80-100 points up, down and up again. At the end we are close to Friday's cash close, so for cash traders not much happened, but they missed one heck of a rollercoaster ride.

The low was hit yesterday on a drop to 4250 ES, then buyers stepped in and after a retest of that low in the o/n today, they pushed price 100 points higher and won back ML. That is a significant achievement. Of course, it depends if this time around they can actually hold above, since they managed to spike above it also early on yesterday, before the huge rug pull to new lows. That is the key line in the sand for today. If price holds above ML, we could have a large low in place (cash traders that tried to sell Friday will be very annoyed, no doubt). Adding to that potential is MGSI which hit extreme pessimism (prior trips there triggered large bounces - 150+ points). If ML is lost, then buyers need to be cautious as that could imply another trip to the lows, especially since IGSI is showing bearish EE again (which triggered yesterday's huge sell off). For now buyers have the edge, as price is above ML, they just need to not drop the ball (like yesterday).

mcm daily market update 18.Feb.22

ST trend: down (with potential ST bounce attempt)

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and ML was being whipsawed in both directions. We did mention that "ML is still a key level so if one side manages to sustain a move above/below ML, that would be important to consider". The market obliged. Once ML was lost on the downside, sellers never looked back. Price grinded lower the entire RTH session with only a feeble bounce attempt late morning, which was quickly exhausted and we closed at the lows.

The o/n proved once more that closing at the lows is a trap, especially during OPEX week. We bounced from the lows right into a ML test. ML capped price with ease and the market kept making lower highs, until it finally plunged on yet another Russia headline. The biggest problem for buyers is that this decline was so large that it took out yesterday's lows (which were unconfirmed on FGSI). So while FGSI is at extreme pessimism and could trigger a near term bounce, because the lows are confirmed now, more work is likely needed before finding a bottom. Bigger picture, sellers are in control until ML is won back in a sustained way. Today is OPEX, so expect whipsaws in both directions. Due to the large drop from yesterday, market makers might be incentivised to push this higher, just something to be aware of.

mcm daily market update 16.Feb.22

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was up, as buyers had won back ML and despite FGSI reaching extreme optimism they kept pushing higher. The RTH session was less bullish than the o/n, as buyers were not able to continue to push, but it was a gap 'n camp with price consolidating sideways in a tight range. However buyers did manage to hold above ML, which was important.

The o/n today saw even more sideways action. Buyers did manage a new high on the European open, similar to yesterday, but that spike was sold and we are back where we were before it. Price also back-tested ML (which was dragged higher), so we have a key level near-by. As long as buyers can hold ML, we can see higher prices being attempted. If ML is lost, then a deeper consolidation would likely be in play with the 4420 lvl being 1st area to keep an eye on and the 4395-4400 area being the MUST hold for buyers.

mcm daily market update 7.Feb.22

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt, as we had an unconfirmed low on FGSI and buyers were attempting to bounce from that area. We mentioned danny and 400bar MA as being important near term, while ML test being the "real test". Buyers did manage to test macro-ML after breaking danny, but were quickly rejected there. However they managed to hold a higher low vs the unconfirmed low and then staged a very impressive rally to win back macro-ML and ML, before peaking in the same 4530-4540 area. The decline into the RTH close was vicious and broke back below ML.

Sunday's session didn't do much, price whipsawed around ML neither side being able to make the breakout/down stick. Today followed the same pattern, with price spending actually more time below ML than above. Nonetheless buyers are attempting to breakout again now. We have both bullish and bearish EE on FGSI, so those lvls are important to confirm the direction after price moves away from ML.

mcm daily market update 4.Feb.22

ST trend: down (with potential bottom attempt shaping up)

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a bounce attempt, as buyers had put in another unconfirmed low pattern and bounced off there, but putting in bearish EE. We mentioned that ML remains a key level and key it was, as it capped price on every bounce attempt and then mkt was sold to new lows. The market acted very weak yesterday and there wasn't even a gap fill attempt and it closed at the lows.

That close proved to be a bear trap at least for half of the o/n session. AMZN came out with decent earnings and given that it was sold brutally yesterday (was over -8% at some point), ES ramped almost 60 points on the news. However, the big problem for buyers is that ML contined to cap price action. We had an initial test right off the AMZN news and ML held. Then after catching their breath for a bit, buyers tried again, but failed at ML once again. After that there was no looking back and we dropped to take out yesterday's lows. Another unconfirmed low attempt, but after the 8:30 NFP numbers also this bounce failed and we just took out the o/n lows. Going fwd, things look pretty bearish. Yesterday's RTH action was clearly bearish. And the o/n retracing the entire ramp off AMZN news is also horrible for buyers. It remains to be seen where the market would find suppor. Danny and 400bar MA are important near term. And if buyers can find their footing then ML will be the real test.

mcm daily market update 31.Jan.22

ST Trend: neutral (potential ST bounce underway)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt, as price kept making lower lows after losing ML and despite hitting extreme pessimism on FGSI several times. We did mention that once danny gave way the bottoming attempt would be confirmed and indeed once danny failed to cap price, buyers pushed it all the way into a ML back-test. Initially ML held, but buyers managed to make a higher low on the pullback from there and then broken above ML convincingly. We did get another ML back-test (from above this time), right before the "famous" late Friday ramp.

The o/n action since Friday's RTH close was as text-book as possible. Pullback after hours on Friday, then another push to minor new highs on Sunday, highs which remained unconfirmed on FGSI. Then pullback from there and another test of the highs on Monday before finally giving up and having a pullback into a ML test. ML is the key line in the sand, as usual. Buyers want to hold ML and bounce this back to the highs area to have hopes at another push higher. FGSI hit extreme pessimism on this ML test, so they have a decent chance at that. On the other hand, sellers need to break below ML. Capping price either at danny (ideally for sellers) or at least 400bar MA is what sellers want to see. FGSI is already showing buyers are inefficient on this bounce off ML, which is not what they wanna see. If ML is lost, buyers would need to make a stand at macro ML or at the 1st bullish EE lvl (the low where the Friday late ramp started).