mcm daily market update 23.May.22
ST trend: up
On Friday we were noting that the o/n ST trend was up, however we did warn that "So for now things look bullish, however I still believe this could be a bull trap, caused by OPEX. Buyers have the edge now, but to confirm the change in trend they would need to sustain a breakout above macro-ML. That would also breakout the upper side of the bear flag. On the downside, sellers need to break down below ML. IF that happens, the danger to the buyers grows exponentially as I believe there is a real chance that we break yesterday's o/n low and potentially go much lower. So if ML is lost, buyers need to be VERY careful.". Buyers weren't able to break above macro-ML and the upper side of the bear flag and we dropped in the "usual" slow grind lower manner until the last 2.5h of the RTH session. The market did break the lows from the prior weak and went about 45 points lower, before finding a bottom. The huge short squeeze in the last 2.5h could be also an OPEX squeeze, as many big names were oversold and the max pain price was higher than where it was then.
Sunday and today saw the market continue the bounce started late on Friday, however it stalled and chopped between macro-ML and ML. Where price goes from here will be important. Same as Friday, this bounce could be only an OPEX short squeeze from Market Makers and now that options expired, we will see if there are genuine buyers here or not, once RTH opens. It is a bit of a coin toss here, I still suspect that this is bull trap though. If buyers can break the o/n highs and sustain a breakout above macro-ML, then we could see a multi-day bounce. However if ML is lost then we could erase the entire late Friday ramp. Compression between the 2 MLs for now, the breakout/down will be large.