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mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 20.Sep.21

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ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as buyers were in the middle of a bounce from bullish EE on FGSI. They failed at the retest of the prior high and then kept painting bearish EE on each bounce, and they all held and pushed price lower. Those were clear indications that sellers are stepping back up. The cash open spike did the same, with a bearish EE forming which held. After that there was no looking back. Sellers sliced through ML and they were in control throughout the session. On Sunday we had continuation to the downside, as a feeble attempt at a bounce saw bearish EE forming and then lower lows.

The o/n session of today continued to show weakness. Bounces were small but leading to large FGSI moves. Danny kept rejecting price. With that being said, we do have a double unconfirmed low on FGSI and IGSI. And we do have MGSI in the green zone. These make the POTENTIAL for a bigger bottom. Potential is the key word. Buyers need to prove themselves by breaking above key lines (momo, danny, 400bar MA and eventually ML) and also break bearish EE levels on FGSI/IGSI. 3 additional things to mention:

  1. This is the same set-up on FGSI/IGSI/MGSI which we had at prior 2 OPEX dates. While "this time could be different", it's worth keeping in mind what happened last time.
  2. We are overshooting the 50DMA on daily and the lower BB. At least a snap-back bounce is probable. Reaction to that, especially if price retest ML, will be key for the trend.
  3. FOMC starts its 2 day meeting tomorrow, with the announcement coming on Wed evening.
mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 10.Sep.21

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ST trend: neutral

The last 2 days we were noting that the trend was down with potential bottoming attempts. Both times sellers took control and broke through those bottoming attempts to make lower lows. We again had an unconfirmed low on FGSI (so potential bottoming attempt) yesterday heading into the cash close and buyers stepped in there with what now looks like more determination vs prior 2 times.

The o/n saw buyers win back ML (a big step towards restoring the up trend) and break the 1st bearish EE lvl set up. What is more important is that sellers are inefficient on pullbacks, setting up bullish EE, which started to hold. That is a chance in character and a warning to sellers that this time the buyers could mean business. Buyers are not out of the woods yet as the trend now is only neutral. They need to continue to hold the bullish EE levels and also to defend ML. If they can hold price above ML and continue to build on bullish EE levels, then they could shift the trend back to up.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 27.Aug.21

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ST trend: down with bottoming attempt

Yesterday was the first down trend day in a while. Sellers managed to break below ML, decline stopped on a SE Xtick, but the bounce off there stopped on the ML back-test and price was rejected there. ML acting like that meant the ST trend was down and that's exactly what we got, as the market acted weak and closed at the lows.

The o/n saw price make another low, which was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And buyers finally stepped in there and are attempting to bottom this decline. They managed to win back ML and if they can hold above and continue to bounce, the bottom might be in for the ST. There are bearish EE set-ups on both FGSI and IGSI, so holding ML is key. Buyers need to hold aboev and break the bearish EE lvls. Sellers on the other hand need to break below ML and break the unconfirmed lows.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 20.Jul.21

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ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a potential bottoming attempt (as FGSI was showing an unconfirmed low). We did warn that the bottoming attempt was only a potential as if sellers continued to push, that could have been broken. Sellers did just that and continued to break lower almost the entire cash session, until the last 30min when buyers stepped in and staged a larger bounce. The follow through on the downside after Friday's bearish session is a serious warning a larger shift is at hand (from full-on bullish to a bearish stance), so longs do need to be careful here.

The o/n continued higher building on the late bounce from yesterday and a bigger dip showed sellers were inefficient, so the trend went back to neutral. Boths sides are inefficient as shown by FGSI, so the ST trend is up for grabs. A ST bounce after the sell off from the last 2 days should be expected. The only question is if it's just a dead-cat bounce or are buyers ready to step back in with authority. We do have the potential for a big low at yesterday's lows with IGSI and FGSI showing that low to be unconfirmed and MGSI touching extreme pessimism there. So there is a possibility that the correction is done and market runs back higher. However buyers need to prove themselves now, as the last 2 days were showing a change in character with the bounces failing. ML is, as usual, our main line in the sand for the trend. It was decisively broken on Friday and yesterday there was only a feble attempt in the o/n to touch it. So the ST trend was clearly pointing lower. Now this bounce took price right to ML and it's just whipsawing around it. That means the current area is an inflection point. Depending on which side of ML the price will settle will dictate the near term trend. The bullish and bearish EE levels on FGSI will be additional confirmation after that.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 18.Jun.21

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ST trend: down, with potential bounce attempt

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient, as shown by FGSI (something which is happening quite often in the o/n as of late). The market had a big pop prior to the open, then a few whipsaws before finally dropping hard to retest Wednesday's lows before rallying hard into the close and retest the highs of the day.

The o/n now saw the market moving sideways and then starting to drift lower. FGSI is showing extreme pessimism already, so a bounce might be attempted, but it it also showing confirmed local lows, so the decline might extend. We have a bullish EE lvl vs yesterday's LOD, so that levels becomes important if we do in fact accelerate lower. The biggest problem for buyers is the fact that they lost ML, then tried to win it back but failed.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 5.Mar.21

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ST trend: neutral (with bearish risk)

It seems the market stopped tipping its hand in the o/n session and keeps things in suspense until the cash market open. For several days we were noting that the trend was neutral as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI in the o/n session. Yesterday the buyers staged an attack over ML to get us back to an uptrend, but failed just above as the markets were disappointed by Powel's remarks. Funny how that works. So just to mention this again: ML is a KEY level for the overall trend. If price is above, we have a bullish bias, while if price is below - bearish.

In the o/n, both buyers and sellers were inefficient, as the market still tries to digest the mini-crash off Powel's statements. We have bearish EE above which held price action and pushed it lower and now bullish EE set up with FGSI bouncing from extreme pessimism. Those levels remain important and a breach would mean one side is getting the upper hand. Buyers want to hold the bullish EE and ideally to break back above ML. That would help them and could trigger a "relief rally". Sellers want to make a stand at (or below) ML and try to attack yesterday's LOD. Breaking the bullish EE level would help them significantly.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 16.Feb.21

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Summary: all 3 GSIs had unconfirmed highs at Monday's high, which means we are at an important inflection point. Sellers continue to be inefficient, however if FGSI breaks below a bullish EE level that would be a big warning that we might get a bigger correction. If the bullish EE level is defended, then another squeeze into the highs is possible. TT signals (danny, momentum, 400bar MA and ML) will be helpful in identifying early which scenario will play out. Breaking below ML would be a big statement from sellers (which would coincide with breaking the bullish EE too).

ST trend: up, with reversal risk

The late Friday melt-up into the long w/e produced extreme optimism on FGSI and then a series of unconfirmed highs. However Sunday and Monday saw price action continuing to grind up, while FGSI showed that sellers were extremely inefficient on all pullbacks which led to more and more highs. We currently have 2 unconfirmed highs on FGSI, from where the market pulled back, but again sellers were very inefficient and generated bullish excess energy (EE) vs the prior trip here (close to extreme pessimism). That is a 1st important level, if sellers are going to take initiative they would need to break below. If that happens, it would be a sign that at least ST, the character of the market is changing. Buyers are favorites now, so they simply need to defend that level and if so, then another trip to the highs is very likely.

IT trend: up, with reversal risk

We had some interesting developments also on the longer term GSIs, so we will cover them today as well. IGSI moved similarly to FGSI and made a big confirmed high on the open on Sunday, but then pulled back strongly, while price continued to grind higher. Now it dropped to below mid value after it put in an unconfirmed high at Monday's high. That sets up class B bullish EE already and means another squeeze up is possible. However, if FGSI breaks the bullish EE level, then we need to start watching the bullish EE levels on IGSI as breaking those would be more serious.

MGSI peaked and made a confirmed high at extreme optimism levels, which is again a warning this rally is getting very extended. It also started to pullback from there, while price continued highs, which makes Monday's high unconfirmed also on MGSI. A bigger pullback from MGSI extreme optimism is likely, the only question is if we will get one immediately or get another squeeze higher first into a clearer unconfirmed high.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 8.Feb.21

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ST trend: neutral

After the up squeeze on Friday, the market continued to put in unconfirmed highs on FGSI, which in the end led to a small correction. FGSI was showing that sellers are inefficient and did set up bullish excess energy (EE) vs lower levels. However, what is interesting is that FGSI is now showing that buyers are inefficient on bounces and the inefficiency is increasing. The last bounce set up bearish EE. So with both buyers and sellers being inefficient, that shows indecision. So the trend is now up for grabs, whichever side manages to break the EE first, will have the near term trend on their side.