mcm daily market update 20.Jul.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a potential bottoming attempt (as FGSI was showing an unconfirmed low). We did warn that the bottoming attempt was only a potential as if sellers continued to push, that could have been broken. Sellers did just that and continued to break lower almost the entire cash session, until the last 30min when buyers stepped in and staged a larger bounce. The follow through on the downside after Friday's bearish session is a serious warning a larger shift is at hand (from full-on bullish to a bearish stance), so longs do need to be careful here.

The o/n continued higher building on the late bounce from yesterday and a bigger dip showed sellers were inefficient, so the trend went back to neutral. Boths sides are inefficient as shown by FGSI, so the ST trend is up for grabs. A ST bounce after the sell off from the last 2 days should be expected. The only question is if it's just a dead-cat bounce or are buyers ready to step back in with authority. We do have the potential for a big low at yesterday's lows with IGSI and FGSI showing that low to be unconfirmed and MGSI touching extreme pessimism there. So there is a possibility that the correction is done and market runs back higher. However buyers need to prove themselves now, as the last 2 days were showing a change in character with the bounces failing. ML is, as usual, our main line in the sand for the trend. It was decisively broken on Friday and yesterday there was only a feble attempt in the o/n to touch it. So the ST trend was clearly pointing lower. Now this bounce took price right to ML and it's just whipsawing around it. That means the current area is an inflection point. Depending on which side of ML the price will settle will dictate the near term trend. The bullish and bearish EE levels on FGSI will be additional confirmation after that.