ST Trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. We did note that as long as ML and macro-ML are above price, sellers retain an edge and that proved to be true. The bullish EE on FGSI with FGSI at extreme pessimism did lead to a bounce right into a ML test, but ML held as resistance and after whipsawing a few times, marrket then made new lows. We did get the usual Friday afternoon ramp, but that also failed just below ML.

Sunday saw new lows reached, before another bounce into ML. And the o/n today also saw 2 ML tests, but both rejected price strongly. Now the market appears to try to find another bottom. FGSI is at extreme pessimism again, but the main problem for buyers is that this is a confirmed low. So even if we get a ST bounce, more work is likely needed before a more meaningful bottom is found. In the bigger picture, ML keeps rejecting price and acting as a brick wall of resistance, which is in itself bearish. Buyers would need to break above ML to start looking at a more significant change in trend. Until then, sellers have the ball.

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was up with potential topping pattern as the high was unconfirmed on FGSI. We did mention the big picture ranges of 4770 and 4800. The market first had yet another bounce off ML which stopped again on the 4800 resistance and then sellers finally took over and we saw a big sell-off in the 2nd part of the RTH session and closed at the lows right into 4770 lower part of the range.

The o/n saw sellers finally break the 4770 area with a quick 20 point drop right into macro-ML. That test of macro-ML was unconfirmed on FGSI and buyers stepped in and brought price right back up to 4770. They are not very efficient via FGSI, as they are testing that big level from below, so this bounce could be just a reflexive back-test of prior broken support. Buyers would need to see a break back above 4770 and ML (which is just above) in order to get back in the lead. Either directly from here or after making a higher low vs the o/n low. Sellers have the upper hand now and they need to hold here and break the unconfirmed low.

And as today is the last day (and trading day) of the year, Happy New Year!

ST trend: down

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down as buyers had lost ML and macro-ML and were very inefficient on bounces via FGSI. That played out as expected as price continued lower about 40 more points from our post, before buyers finally attempted a bigger bounce from another trip to extreme pessimism on FGSI. That bounce perfectly back-tested ML and price rejected there. Buyers attempted again, after holding a higher low, but ML rejected price again and closed the session on Friday pretty ominous for buyers.

Sunday and today's o/n sessions continued the bearish set-up from Friday. Buyers were very inefficient on bounces (via FGSI) and price kept making lower lows. Given the strong rejection at ML, the main trend is down, until that changes. We are on the Monday after OPEX, so the market might attempt a larger bottom here. The 1st step for buyers would be to defend the o/n low and if they can't at least the low near 4500 reached beggining of December.

ST trend: up (with potential topping pattern)

Yesterday we were mentioning the ST trend was down with a potential bottoming pattern as buyers were inefficient via FGSI and they had lost ML. However FGSI was at extreme pessimism, so a bounce was likely. The market did what we expected as it did bounce, but that bounce failed and in the end it resumed lower to make new lows. RTH closed at the lows, which we mentioned in our chatroom that is likely a bear trap.

The o/n proved the bear trap to be true. Buyers managed to hold yesterday's low, despite testing it 2 times, after which they launched higher. More importantly, they won ML back. That is a serious warning for sellers. If ML managed to hold, then the up trend will resume. FGSI is at extreme optimism up here, so a pullback is expected. If buyers manage to hold ML on that pullback, that would be the ideal bullish scenario. Sellers want to see ML fail on a sustained basis to arrest the bounce and attempt more downside.