mcm daily market update 17.Dec.21

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was up as buyers continued to build on the big FOMC bounce and sellers kept being inefficient on the tiny dips. This continued until ES made a new ATH, after which price finally starting to come down from nose-bleed highs. The normal expectation would have been for a pullback into a ML back-test to resolve the ST overbought situation. However that is not what the market had in mind. ML failed to hold and the initial bounce off it quickly failed. That was a major warning something is wrong (with the bullish scenario).

The o/n session continued the bearish character, as bounces were weak and buyers were very inefficient via FGSI. Additionally every trip to extreme pessimism on FGSI provided only very limited relief bounces and were then subsequently broken. So now we are back to a down trend. Buyers need to prove themselves now by breaking bearish EE levels and winning back those 2 important lines. Immediate term danny and 400bar MA have been capping price and if they finally fail to do that, it would be the 1st sign buyers are attempting to step in. OPEX is today, so whipsaws are possible in both direction, but the main trend is down until ML and macro-ML are won back.