Posts

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 22.Feb.22

/in , /by

ST trend: up

The market had some wild swings both ways since Friday's close. As the cash market was closed for the holiday on Monday, the algos had some fun, making a lower low on Sunday, then 80-100 points up, down and up again. At the end we are close to Friday's cash close, so for cash traders not much happened, but they missed one heck of a rollercoaster ride.

The low was hit yesterday on a drop to 4250 ES, then buyers stepped in and after a retest of that low in the o/n today, they pushed price 100 points higher and won back ML. That is a significant achievement. Of course, it depends if this time around they can actually hold above, since they managed to spike above it also early on yesterday, before the huge rug pull to new lows. That is the key line in the sand for today. If price holds above ML, we could have a large low in place (cash traders that tried to sell Friday will be very annoyed, no doubt). Adding to that potential is MGSI which hit extreme pessimism (prior trips there triggered large bounces - 150+ points). If ML is lost, then buyers need to be cautious as that could imply another trip to the lows, especially since IGSI is showing bearish EE again (which triggered yesterday's huge sell off). For now buyers have the edge, as price is above ML, they just need to not drop the ball (like yesterday).

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 4.Feb.22

/in , /by

ST trend: down (with potential bottom attempt shaping up)

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with a bounce attempt, as buyers had put in another unconfirmed low pattern and bounced off there, but putting in bearish EE. We mentioned that ML remains a key level and key it was, as it capped price on every bounce attempt and then mkt was sold to new lows. The market acted very weak yesterday and there wasn't even a gap fill attempt and it closed at the lows.

That close proved to be a bear trap at least for half of the o/n session. AMZN came out with decent earnings and given that it was sold brutally yesterday (was over -8% at some point), ES ramped almost 60 points on the news. However, the big problem for buyers is that ML contined to cap price action. We had an initial test right off the AMZN news and ML held. Then after catching their breath for a bit, buyers tried again, but failed at ML once again. After that there was no looking back and we dropped to take out yesterday's lows. Another unconfirmed low attempt, but after the 8:30 NFP numbers also this bounce failed and we just took out the o/n lows. Going fwd, things look pretty bearish. Yesterday's RTH action was clearly bearish. And the o/n retracing the entire ramp off AMZN news is also horrible for buyers. It remains to be seen where the market would find suppor. Danny and 400bar MA are important near term. And if buyers can find their footing then ML will be the real test.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 17.Dec.21

/in , /by

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was up as buyers continued to build on the big FOMC bounce and sellers kept being inefficient on the tiny dips. This continued until ES made a new ATH, after which price finally starting to come down from nose-bleed highs. The normal expectation would have been for a pullback into a ML back-test to resolve the ST overbought situation. However that is not what the market had in mind. ML failed to hold and the initial bounce off it quickly failed. That was a major warning something is wrong (with the bullish scenario).

The o/n session continued the bearish character, as bounces were weak and buyers were very inefficient via FGSI. Additionally every trip to extreme pessimism on FGSI provided only very limited relief bounces and were then subsequently broken. So now we are back to a down trend. Buyers need to prove themselves now by breaking bearish EE levels and winning back those 2 important lines. Immediate term danny and 400bar MA have been capping price and if they finally fail to do that, it would be the 1st sign buyers are attempting to step in. OPEX is today, so whipsaws are possible in both direction, but the main trend is down until ML and macro-ML are won back.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 16.Dec.21

/in , /by

ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend is neutral as both sides were inefficient. We also mentioned that the prior day low was a big line in the sand and being a FOMC day, the market should pick up a more sustained direction after the announcement. Wednesday's low held the whole day and as it turned out was a great level to act against for those who wanted to enter long positions. The FOMC action was typical. First move (down) was the fake one and then the market rallied off that base to breakout significantly and close near the highs.

The o/n confirmed the shift (back) to full-on bullish mode. The RTH close was bested by another 30 points and ES came close to a new ATH. Pullbacks continue to be very small, while FGSI is showing sellers are having a very hard time getting price to cooperate. Brief drops of price below the danny line were quickly recovered, so until that line fails on a sustained basis, dips are likely to be contained. Once danny gives way and also 400bar MA is lost, then a pullback to ML could happen. That might not occur today and considering that ML is also being dragged higher by price, it could occur at higher prices. For now the buyers are back in the lead and the main trend is up. So dips are buying opportunities until the market signals again a change in character.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 11.Oct.21

/in , /by

ST trend: down

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. The session on Friday didn't do much to clarify things and we had a sideways chop day, but which did finish near the lows. Sunday saw prolonged weakness as price made significant new lows and tested the 4350 ES area.

Buyers did stage a decent bounce off those lows (FGSI had reached extreme pessimism), but the bounce looks weak and was subsequently sold. We did get a ML back-test which rejected price strongly, so things look pretty grim for buyers. We are at extreme pessimism again on FGSI, if they can step in again, then danny would be the 1st line to watch. Above that 400bar MA and, of course, ML is THE key line in the sand. Only if buyers manage to win back ML will the bearish character change. Otherwise the sellers would have the edge.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 23.Aug.21

/in , /by

ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as in the o/n (ES was at 4385 at the time), both sides were looking inefficient via FGSI. We did warn however that "A sustained move above ML would reassure that the bottoming attempt from yesterday is playing out and the "OPEX scare" is over". Buyers did exactly that, broke the bearish EE lvl, won back ML and never looked back. We did not expect a large move considering the OPEX Friday, but apparently MMs were satisfied to keep just the big names (AMZN, AAPL) in check and the index ran regardless.

Sunday brought more bullish developments, as buyers continued the up move and broke the unconfirmed high that was registered on Friday on FGSI. They also broke the initial bearish EE lvl set-up on IGSI on the 1st bounce off the big low from last week. The only issues for buyers are the fact that the recent high is unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI; and FGSI is showing buyers are also inefficient on this bounce. Those things can still change if buyers continue higher, so they still look to be in decent shape. Ideally they would break the unconfirmed highs before getting a retrace to "cool off" FGSI and IGSI. Depending on whether they can do that or not, we will have more info. A ML test from here would be normal (especially since ML was pulled up by price and is likely not far below). The test should hold if this is to continue immediately higher. If ML breaks, then a deeper retrace could come, but in the larger picture it's hard to see how sellers can avoid new ATHs coming.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 13.Aug.21

/in , /by

ST trend: up (with potential pullback set-up)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up, with a potential topping pattern, as both FGSI and IGSI were showing unconfirmed highs. The market did pullback from there and even overshot ML for a brief period. FGSI reached extreme pessimism and as usual buyers stepped in there with authority. They won back ML and after that there was no looking back, market going straight to new ATHs.

In the o/n price went sideways and unlike the previous sessions, we had almost no pullback. The new unconfirmed high on FGSI from yesterday' session was broken and ES just made a new ATH. FGSI is at extreme optimism again, so a ST pullback is to be expected, however buyers have been extremely strong and the trend is up, so unless danny or 400bar MA fail to hold as support, it is dangerous to try to anticipate a turn. Once these do fail, it is likely we will see another ML test, but until then - the trend is up.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 23.Jul.21

/in , /by

ST trend: up (with potential ST pullback)

Yesterday we were noting that the trend was still up, as sellers were inefficient, but were warning that a pullback could be coming to test ML as FGSI was showing an unconfirmed high. That is exactly what happened. The unconfirmed high on FGSI led to a pullback into a ML test. The test held quite comfortably (ES never touched ML, while YM overlapped it briefly) and from there the buyers launched another push higher.

The o/n saw continued upward pressure as buyers kept making higher highs, while sellers were inefficient on pullbacks. The main achievement of the buyers is that now they finally broke the initial bearish EE level on IGSI. They also broke the closer unconfirmed highs on FGSI and turned them into confirmed highs. Price is also very close to the ATH, so the trend is clearly up. For the immediate term, we do have FGSI at extreme optimism, so a pullback could happed anytime from here. However, it depends how price will act on the TT lines (momentum, danny and 400bar MA). As usual, if danny gets broken, then a trip to 400bar MA below would be expected. If that also gets broken, then another ML test might be in the cards. As long as these lines hold, we could continue higher with only shallow pullbacks, depending on how FGSI shapes up. IGSI has a lot of room fwiw.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 09.Feb.21

/in , /by

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we also noted that the trend was neutral, because after a prolonged up trend, FGSI was showing that both buyers and sellers were inefficient. We had bullish excess energy (EE) triggering on declines and and bearish EE triggering on bounces. However it was the buyers who took the lead again by breaking the bearish EE level. They also defended the 3886 ES level, which was the breakout of Buyer Exhaustion (BE) Xtick and the Maginot Line (ML) level.

Today FGSI is showing almost the same set-up like yesterday. Sellers are very inefficient, triggering bullish EE on each decline. However also buyers are showing inefficiency on bounces. So the 1st signs of one side taking the lead would be when they manage to break through an oppossing EE and make confirmed lows/highs.