ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as price was stuck in a range and both sides were showing inefficiency on FGSI. We had both bullish and bearish EE at the ends of the chop range, and mentioned that breakout would be telling. ML was also close by and that also provided nice clues. Price chopped around in the range for a bit more and off the cash opened dipped below ML slightly. However buyers were able to stop very close and once they broke back above ML there was no looking back.

Buyers continued to dominate on Sunday, making new highs above Friday. Today we had the usual pullback from the Sunday high, but buyers stepped in quickly to buy the dip and we made another high vs that one. So buyers are in control, as sellers continue to look inefficient on pullbacks. We do have IGSI stubbornly refusing to confirm the highs and FGSI setting up another locally unconfirmed high, so there is the potential for a reversal. The important TT lines (danny, 400bar MA and ML) must give way though. So far danny held support, which limited pullbacks. Once danny finally gives way, 400bar MA is the next inflection. A ML back-test could happen if 400bar MA also fails and if it does, that would be the big decision point. As long as price is above ML - buyers have the edge and this can continue to push higher.

ST Trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was (still) up, as sellers were very inefficient on FGSI. We also mentioned that the important lines on TTs would provide important clues when a reversal would finally show up. The market ended up pushing another ~30 points higher from our post, before finally reaching exhaustion and pulling back for the rest of the session. Once danny was broken on TTs, it was a clear sign a pullback is coming. The pullback was also 30+ points, after which the buyers managed to bounce into the close.

The action on Sunday and today in the am doesn't look very promising for buyers. Despite the news of the infrastructure bill passing over the w/e, price continued to consolidate in a limited range. It tested ML and bounced, but not convincingly and is still below the bounce high from Friday. Buyers also printed a bearish EE vs that high which held. On the other hand, sellers continue to show inefficiency on FGSI so considering that ML did hold, buyers still get the benefit of the doubt. If the bearish EE gets broken, that would be confirmation of more upside. If it continues to hold and we break below ML, that would be a sign a bigger pullback is in the cards.

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was still up as sellers continued to be inefficient on eachpullback, while buyers kept pushing to higher highs. After the cash market opened we saw an initial drop, then a push to a new high, which was unconfirmed on FGSI and which was afterwards quickly reversed. The ensuing decline was very steep as we dropped 35 points in a vertical drop, before buyers stepped back in on extreme pessimism on FGSI and a 2nd sequential SE on TTs which also had an Xtick. That nailed the low for Friday and the market bounced right into the cash close.

Sunday saw a drop from those highs until FGSI hit again extreme pessimism zone (just barely), where buyers stepped in again and pushed price back right to the closing highs from Friday. The o/n today showed clearly that sellers are very inefficient (via FGSI) as every drop generated a big move in FGSI and as a consequence was quickly bought back up. It seems that the market is waiting for the cash session to decide on a clear direction. Above the ATH touched early on Friday and buyers could push another 15-20 points before finding resistance. As long as the ATH holds as resistance, sellers have a shot at pushing directly towards Friday's lows. Both TTs and FGSI currently give the upper hand to the buyers as all important lines on TTs (danny, 400bar MA and ML) are below price, while FGSI keeps showing sellers are very inefficient. So unless sellers step in on the cash open, we could see another push higher.