Yesterday we noted that the trend was up, with whipsaw risks, as FGSI showed that also buyers were inefficient. The whipsaw risk turned into full on bear, once buyers continued to be inefficient on all bounces and the Maginot Line (ML) was lost. Just a reminder: the ST trend can change quickly if FGSI and the TT signals (ML is THE line in the sand for up/down trend) change character.
The o/n showed that buyers were up against the ropes several times, as the selling pressure continued and made the first bounce off yesterday's lows fail. However buyers made a big comeback and now we have a serious bottoming attempt. The last low was unconfirmed on FGSI and bulls bounced hard off of it AND broke the 1st bearish EE level. That is a big warning for sellers as it is exactly what should happen when the trend changes. However, buyers still need to win back the ML.
With both FGSI and IGSI showing unconfirmed lows at the o/n lows, the buyers have a great chance at turning this back up. But ML needs to give way, as long as price is below, the buyers are not out of the woods.
Summary: all 3 GSIs had unconfirmed highs at Monday's high, which means we are at an important inflection point. Sellers continue to be inefficient, however if FGSI breaks below a bullish EE level that would be a big warning that we might get a bigger correction. If the bullish EE level is defended, then another squeeze into the highs is possible. TT signals (danny, momentum, 400bar MA and ML) will be helpful in identifying early which scenario will play out. Breaking below ML would be a big statement from sellers (which would coincide with breaking the bullish EE too).
ST trend: up, with reversal risk
The late Friday melt-up into the long w/e produced extreme optimism on FGSI and then a series of unconfirmed highs. However Sunday and Monday saw price action continuing to grind up, while FGSI showed that sellers were extremely inefficient on all pullbacks which led to more and more highs. We currently have 2 unconfirmed highs on FGSI, from where the market pulled back, but again sellers were very inefficient and generated bullish excess energy (EE) vs the prior trip here (close to extreme pessimism). That is a 1st important level, if sellers are going to take initiative they would need to break below. If that happens, it would be a sign that at least ST, the character of the market is changing. Buyers are favorites now, so they simply need to defend that level and if so, then another trip to the highs is very likely.
IT trend: up, with reversal risk
We had some interesting developments also on the longer term GSIs, so we will cover them today as well. IGSI moved similarly to FGSI and made a big confirmed high on the open on Sunday, but then pulled back strongly, while price continued to grind higher. Now it dropped to below mid value after it put in an unconfirmed high at Monday's high. That sets up class B bullish EE already and means another squeeze up is possible. However, if FGSI breaks the bullish EE level, then we need to start watching the bullish EE levels on IGSI as breaking those would be more serious.
MGSI peaked and made a confirmed high at extreme optimism levels, which is again a warning this rally is getting very extended. It also started to pullback from there, while price continued highs, which makes Monday's high unconfirmed also on MGSI. A bigger pullback from MGSI extreme optimism is likely, the only question is if we will get one immediately or get another squeeze higher first into a clearer unconfirmed high.
Last 2 days we had an apparent neutral trend in the o/n, with both buyers and sellers showing inefficiency in terms of ability to move price. And in both days it was the buyers that took the lead (back). Today, the trend is up, with sellers being inefficient, however we did have an unconfirmed high at the o/n HOD which could mark a ST reversal. The key word is "could" as for that to happen, the sellers would need to show up and push this lower. If buyers break that level and turn it into a confirmed high, then the up trend will resume.
Yesterday we also noted that the trend was neutral, because after a prolonged up trend, FGSI was showing that both buyers and sellers were inefficient. We had bullish excess energy (EE) triggering on declines and and bearish EE triggering on bounces. However it was the buyers who took the lead again by breaking the bearish EE level. They also defended the 3886 ES level, which was the breakout of Buyer Exhaustion (BE) Xtick and the Maginot Line (ML) level.
Today FGSI is showing almost the same set-up like yesterday. Sellers are very inefficient, triggering bullish EE on each decline. However also buyers are showing inefficiency on bounces. So the 1st signs of one side taking the lead would be when they manage to break through an oppossing EE and make confirmed lows/highs.
After the up squeeze on Friday, the market continued to put in unconfirmed highs on FGSI, which in the end led to a small correction. FGSI was showing that sellers are inefficient and did set up bullish excess energy (EE) vs lower levels. However, what is interesting is that FGSI is now showing that buyers are inefficient on bounces and the inefficiency is increasing. The last bounce set up bearish EE. So with both buyers and sellers being inefficient, that shows indecision. So the trend is now up for grabs, whichever side manages to break the EE first, will have the near term trend on their side.
After the weakness into the close, mkt continued lower, but put in a very bullish situation at the o/n lows. Not only there was extreme pessimism on FGSI, but it was in the context of bullish excess energy (EE) vs the prior trip to extreme pessimism. Additionally it put in an unconfirmed low just after that. Not suprisingly that triggered a decent bounce. That did trigger bearish EE which initially held, but was afterwards bought to new highs and the bearish EE level was broken and turned into confirmed highs. That also has the potential to be very bullish. Sellers are also inefficient on this decline and a bullish EE is already set up vs the prior low. These are all bullish signs, so the ST trend is up. The only way bears would be able to reverse this into a more immediate correction would be to break that bullish EE level, however with the maginot line (ML) also being a few points above it, that looks unlikely.
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