mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 24.Sep.21

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ST trend: down

Yeterday (same every day since Tuesday, actually) we were noting that the ST trend was up and the market delivered. We had a BE Xtick right off the cash open, which was broken out, and there was no looking back after that. The FGSI nicely hinted we could get an up squeeze set-up and that played out text book. The market finally peaked in the 2nd part of the day, also text-book for the FGSI up squeeze set-up, only after FGSI turned back up to mark an unconfirmed high.

From the unconfirmed high, the market pulled back pretty strongly, bounced, but the bounce showed buyers were inefficient and after that sellers took control. They broke to new lows and ran price into a ML test. A pullback to ML would be the normal expectation after an up squeeze set up, however it is a bit concerning that ML did not hold cleanly. Buyers had a decently bullish set up going into the ML test. We had bullish EE on both FGSI and IGSI, FGSI was at extreme pessimism (green zone). So they should have held ML more cleanly. But they didn't and this looks more like a breakdown with rejections at the back-test attempts. FGSI is showing buyers are inefficient, so the ST trend is down for now. Price is still in the vicinity of ML, so not all is lost for buyers. They can still stick save this, but they need to win back ML. And whatever they do, they MUST defend the bullish EE lvl on FGSI (it is at the same lvl also on IGSI, so double importance). If that lvl goes, then that would be seriously concerning for the up trend.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 20.Sep.21

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ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as buyers were in the middle of a bounce from bullish EE on FGSI. They failed at the retest of the prior high and then kept painting bearish EE on each bounce, and they all held and pushed price lower. Those were clear indications that sellers are stepping back up. The cash open spike did the same, with a bearish EE forming which held. After that there was no looking back. Sellers sliced through ML and they were in control throughout the session. On Sunday we had continuation to the downside, as a feeble attempt at a bounce saw bearish EE forming and then lower lows.

The o/n session of today continued to show weakness. Bounces were small but leading to large FGSI moves. Danny kept rejecting price. With that being said, we do have a double unconfirmed low on FGSI and IGSI. And we do have MGSI in the green zone. These make the POTENTIAL for a bigger bottom. Potential is the key word. Buyers need to prove themselves by breaking above key lines (momo, danny, 400bar MA and eventually ML) and also break bearish EE levels on FGSI/IGSI. 3 additional things to mention:

  1. This is the same set-up on FGSI/IGSI/MGSI which we had at prior 2 OPEX dates. While "this time could be different", it's worth keeping in mind what happened last time.
  2. We are overshooting the 50DMA on daily and the lower BB. At least a snap-back bounce is probable. Reaction to that, especially if price retest ML, will be key for the trend.
  3. FOMC starts its 2 day meeting tomorrow, with the announcement coming on Wed evening.
mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 10.Sep.21

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ST trend: neutral

The last 2 days we were noting that the trend was down with potential bottoming attempts. Both times sellers took control and broke through those bottoming attempts to make lower lows. We again had an unconfirmed low on FGSI (so potential bottoming attempt) yesterday heading into the cash close and buyers stepped in there with what now looks like more determination vs prior 2 times.

The o/n saw buyers win back ML (a big step towards restoring the up trend) and break the 1st bearish EE lvl set up. What is more important is that sellers are inefficient on pullbacks, setting up bullish EE, which started to hold. That is a chance in character and a warning to sellers that this time the buyers could mean business. Buyers are not out of the woods yet as the trend now is only neutral. They need to continue to hold the bullish EE levels and also to defend ML. If they can hold price above ML and continue to build on bullish EE levels, then they could shift the trend back to up.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 07.Sep.21

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ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up as sellers were inefficient on pullbacks, however did warn that if ML is broken, the bullish trend would come under question. Sellers did manage to break below ML initially and pushed price lower, but once FGSI reached extreme pessimism, buyers stepped back in. They bounced nicely to close about 10 points off the ATH going into the long w/e. On Sunday the market pulled back again, with FGSI reaching once more extreme pessimism and again buyers stepped in to push priceon the holiday Monday close to the ATH.

From the area close to the ATH we saw yet another pullback and FGSI bottomed here at extreme pessimism again. Buyers stepped in to buy this, however FGSI is showing they are inefficient. Additionally price is below ML, so for now, it looks like sellers have the upper hand in the Short Term. We still have bullish EE vs last time FGSI was at extreme pessimism, so if buyers manage to win back ML, then the odds would shift again. ML remains the key for the near term trend.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 27.Aug.21

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ST trend: down with bottoming attempt

Yesterday was the first down trend day in a while. Sellers managed to break below ML, decline stopped on a SE Xtick, but the bounce off there stopped on the ML back-test and price was rejected there. ML acting like that meant the ST trend was down and that's exactly what we got, as the market acted weak and closed at the lows.

The o/n saw price make another low, which was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And buyers finally stepped in there and are attempting to bottom this decline. They managed to win back ML and if they can hold above and continue to bounce, the bottom might be in for the ST. There are bearish EE set-ups on both FGSI and IGSI, so holding ML is key. Buyers need to hold aboev and break the bearish EE lvls. Sellers on the other hand need to break below ML and break the unconfirmed lows.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 23.Aug.21

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ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as in the o/n (ES was at 4385 at the time), both sides were looking inefficient via FGSI. We did warn however that "A sustained move above ML would reassure that the bottoming attempt from yesterday is playing out and the "OPEX scare" is over". Buyers did exactly that, broke the bearish EE lvl, won back ML and never looked back. We did not expect a large move considering the OPEX Friday, but apparently MMs were satisfied to keep just the big names (AMZN, AAPL) in check and the index ran regardless.

Sunday brought more bullish developments, as buyers continued the up move and broke the unconfirmed high that was registered on Friday on FGSI. They also broke the initial bearish EE lvl set-up on IGSI on the 1st bounce off the big low from last week. The only issues for buyers are the fact that the recent high is unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI; and FGSI is showing buyers are also inefficient on this bounce. Those things can still change if buyers continue higher, so they still look to be in decent shape. Ideally they would break the unconfirmed highs before getting a retrace to "cool off" FGSI and IGSI. Depending on whether they can do that or not, we will have more info. A ML test from here would be normal (especially since ML was pulled up by price and is likely not far below). The test should hold if this is to continue immediately higher. If ML breaks, then a deeper retrace could come, but in the larger picture it's hard to see how sellers can avoid new ATHs coming.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 20.Aug.21

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ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt. That played out as expected, as buyers stepped in and pushed prices higher, avoiding the most bearish scenarios for the time being. The market rallied hard, pulled back around mid day, then bounced to close the cash session near the highs.

The o/n saw a pullback from there, with a grind lower. FGSI is showing both sides are inefficient, with large swings in both directions, but on small price movements. So the ST trend is up for grabs. Buyers did manage to keep this decently elevated and comfortably above yesterday's lows, which is a positive for them. However ML is still above as buyers couldn't hold the breakout above it from yesterday's session. As long as ML is overhead and acting as resistance, the buyers are not out of the woods. Yesterday's low is a KEY level for buyers to avoid a potential deeper correction. A sustained move above ML would reassure that the bottoming attempt from yesterday is playing out and the "OPEX scare" is over. Speaking of which, being a Friday OPEX, a large move in either direction is probably not going to happen and the market could whipsaw in both directions, but not really make any real price progress by the close. Just something to be aware of.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 19.Aug.21

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ST trend: down (with potential bottom attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was down, as price was still below ML and FGSI was showing both sides were inefficient. The market continues to chop between the bearish and bullish EE on FGSI, and even tried to break above ML after the cash market open, but failed to do so. Once the FED minutes were released it tried again to break above ML, but we got a completing signal on TT, with a Buyer Exhaustion (BE) right at that spike high, which was just above ML. It rejected price strongly and even though buyers stepped in after another TT signal (a SE Xtick), the bounce off there made a lower high and then sellers took complete control.

The o/n saw more downside and even lower lows made, which was to be expected given the big confirmed lows on FGSI and IGSI at the cash close yesterday. However now we do have the potential set-up for a meaningful bottom. Both FGSI and IGSI show unconfirmed lows, while MGSI touched the extreme pessimism area (green zone). That is potentially an explosive set-up for upside. The key to this set-up materializing is ML. If buyers manage to break above ML, then sellers need to be careful as a massive face ripping rally could ensue. If ML rejects price, then we might see more downside. Buyers want to defend those unconfirmed lows and avoid them from turning into confirmed lows. On the other hand, sellers must defend ML at all costs to have a shot at lower lows.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 16.Aug.21

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ST trend: down

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up, with potential pullback set-up, as FGSI was at extreme optimism. The pullback was small, then the market pushed to new highs in a very choppy session. It also made a new ATH after hours. The Sunday session saw a pullback from there (the ATH was marked as unconfirmed high on FGSI).

The current o/n saw continuing weakness and what is interesting is that for the first time in a while, the buyers were not able to lift prices back to new highs out of FGSI trips to extreme pessimism. What is more worrying for the buyer side is the fact that 2 unconfirmed lows on FGSI were subsequently broken. That usually marks a shift in market character (i.e.to something more bearish in our case), so it's a big warning that buyers are no longer in full control. ML was also broken by price and now appears to be holding as resistance. That also confirms a more bearish ST picture. Going fwd, it is important to see how price acts in relation to danny and ML. For buyers to get back in control, they must break back above ML. if they can do that, this might be another failed breakdown from seller side. However if ML continues to act as resistance and price continues lower, this might be the 1st trend down day we had in a while. This week is OPEX so shake-outs in both directions are to be expected. Considering that markets are so extended, a bigger pullback would not be out of the question (1st target 4408-4415 - large fractals on 60 and 135min cycles. Below that - 2nd target is 4370-4380 and the bottom of the prior trading range).

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 13.Aug.21

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ST trend: up (with potential pullback set-up)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was up, with a potential topping pattern, as both FGSI and IGSI were showing unconfirmed highs. The market did pullback from there and even overshot ML for a brief period. FGSI reached extreme pessimism and as usual buyers stepped in there with authority. They won back ML and after that there was no looking back, market going straight to new ATHs.

In the o/n price went sideways and unlike the previous sessions, we had almost no pullback. The new unconfirmed high on FGSI from yesterday' session was broken and ES just made a new ATH. FGSI is at extreme optimism again, so a ST pullback is to be expected, however buyers have been extremely strong and the trend is up, so unless danny or 400bar MA fail to hold as support, it is dangerous to try to anticipate a turn. Once these do fail, it is likely we will see another ML test, but until then - the trend is up.