I do not think any words of further content are required...
We are in a timing window as posted earlier. These windows have +/- 1 hour usually. e-Tick Tools just generated a Stop-Run Potential Trigger that suggests a lot of shorts are trapped and that we may get a break over the BUY EXTREME that triggered 20 minutes ago and then pullback. Things to keep in mind... timing area for a high poses risk for further upside. Confirmed Buy Extreme suggests some capitulation on the part of buyers. However, the condition for a stop run are in pace and suggest that if we pop higher could be unpleasant for shorts...till better exhaustion occurs. Sell extreme currently in place is at 2119 and a key level at this moment.
Note, the CYAN line on the price chart is the Accumulation Index and it is making new highs as the market is consolidating - could be another indication of pressure could emerge on near-term short risks.
This is a pretty good, in my opinion, example of using Market Facts/eMotion analysis to support technical analysis.
As posted on Friday, Daily market structure implied a projection for downward bias into early this week. Indeed, this has played out nearly exactly. Market structure projections, by the looks of things, would seem to be coming off an unprecedented run of correctly anticipating daily directionality. However, this is not the case from our perspective, as this is consistent with the level of tracking and probability coherence that we general experience.
Also, keep in mind that, though the Green 9 and 10 notations on the chart below might seem to indicate potential prices, in fact, they are only demonstrating directional bias, there is virtually no viable information to assimilate for the scale of any up move. In our case, we use other tools for that assessment or traditional technical analysis/symmetry can be helpful.
Daily projection continued their unparalleled run of prescient and accurate daily directional projections. The levels of accuracy have been surprising even though we do expect good results. The reality is that it seems that the added elements to our datasets increased accuracy more than expected. Next week looks like there could be some volatility coming in when the market officially reopen.
It was an interesting day intraday the Bear Market Structure did end up tracking. This was mentioned in the morning post. Certainly, however, and most important the time windows were useful and accurate as markets turned at these windows +/-. However, intraday was not clean for projections due to the gap - However, it must be said that Gap Tools and e-Tick Tools were very accurate. If there is time, e-Tick-Tools for today may be discussed in a weekend post. Today was interesting in that we had 90+% percentile selling and buying extremes during the day that market significant levels in the markets.
Early in the year, we decided to do the most thorough study of all the behavioral and market structures possible to confirm or deny the veracity of the January effect. The resulting study produced the "MCM January Effect Model" with very interesting and powerful results.
The chart shown below puts a dim light on the outcome of this year. The rest of the report produced rather stunning results and to our surprise, proved that using a structured approach to a January effect could reveal market behavioral tendencies that are WAY beyond question concerning validity. Some data outcomes produced 96% win or loss rates with 60 to 70 plus qualifiers in the samples. This means 57 to 67 valid winners/losers out of 60 to 70 fulfilling observations.
This report is being refactored and will be available to members when that process is complete. Meanwhile, the data shown below sheds interesting color on 2015. Though there are a low number of observations out of 100+ samples, the methodology we used we feel is highly reliable which makes these outcomes something not to be taken lightly. Ideal turn timing is mid June to mid July.
A few options today...market structure favors a bounce from 7:30 am time window into open as shown in the scenarios below. How we react to the expected bounce or how the bottom forms will bias the probability skew...bullish scenario odds are improving...though odds are favoring down into Monday.
If markets can hold the 7:00 am area test and bounce into the 9:00 am open that significantly increases odds of upside follow through. Odds for this scenario are improving currently. However, there are high probabilities of weakness after the open. In that case, weakness will most likely proceed into the 12:00 pm or 1:00 pm area and consolidate. A key area to watch for clues - bounce out of 7:00 am into 9:00 am and immediate directional movement at the opening. Not terribly clear today - daily projections are indicating a probability weakness into Monday's open - this could occur on Sunday or start today...so, keeping a close eye on the open here.
Comparison of intraday projections from yesterday's posts compared to today's reality...
Yesterday we posted an update to projections putting into perspective the options for the after hours drop. All the time-windows discussed did identify the key areas for inflection points in the S&P 500 market. And though the option of a 8 am high was quickly virtually eliminated at around 6:00 am to 7:00 am - it was simple to setup the bimodal steps to the best alternate structure - which was for a fairly strong rally into 1:00 pm time windows and a decent pullback attempt with the possibility of closing highs or sideways action into the close.
Below is the for the daily and weekly market structure which has been highly accurate.
This morning well before the open, intraday market structure was posted with key time windows as derived from our projection databases and algorithms. As it turned out, timing and direction for the day tracked very closely and led to anticipated selling into the close.
The markets are reflecting the shifts going on the in the weekly structures which is, as posted Monday, at a considerable inflection point. After hours some bearish activity unlike predominant after hours activity took place. However, it fits well with two possible scenarios:
- Market low in place at 7:00 pm biases higher into 7:00 am to 8:00 am followed by weakness for the majority of the day session
- Market drops into 5 or 6:00 am and then reverses in a decent upward bias for the majority of the session.
As a color to this - it is important to note that this May's projection for performance by Day of the Week tends to be: strongest on Mondays and weakest on Thursdays most of the month. So, a weak day session would not be surprising at all.
Daily Directionality Projections were prescient so far today. Also, comments regarding the intra-day have proven out with a significant SPX low for the day at 11:52 am - right in the middle of the 11:30 am to 12:00 pm time window. We are now approaching timing for around 2:30 to 3:00 pm highs.
Also, note that the accumulation indexes performed strongly all day.
Daily Market Structure Projections see the market retaining upside bias into tomorrow morning...possibly topping out premarket in the time window of around 7:00 am. as we can see the inverted (CYAN) market structure presented as most probable had indeed tracked.
82031 Munich, Germany
Algorithm analysis ES Inflection point Tools market commentary . Fact Number MSP Probability Understanding market structure Expert Lounge intraday Bias Psychology Cycles Emotion markets Greece Central bank Risk Tick Observation US Mathematical analysis market internals ES_F market structure projection Levels S&P500 MCM Earnings Data Stock market Analytics Forecasting Future Tool Tick Tools GOLD Behavior Bank