ST trend: down (with potential ST bounce attempt)

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI and ML was being whipsawed in both directions. We did mention that "ML is still a key level so if one side manages to sustain a move above/below ML, that would be important to consider". The market obliged. Once ML was lost on the downside, sellers never looked back. Price grinded lower the entire RTH session with only a feeble bounce attempt late morning, which was quickly exhausted and we closed at the lows.

The o/n proved once more that closing at the lows is a trap, especially during OPEX week. We bounced from the lows right into a ML test. ML capped price with ease and the market kept making lower highs, until it finally plunged on yet another Russia headline. The biggest problem for buyers is that this decline was so large that it took out yesterday's lows (which were unconfirmed on FGSI). So while FGSI is at extreme pessimism and could trigger a near term bounce, because the lows are confirmed now, more work is likely needed before finding a bottom. Bigger picture, sellers are in control until ML is won back in a sustained way. Today is OPEX, so expect whipsaws in both directions. Due to the large drop from yesterday, market makers might be incentivised to push this higher, just something to be aware of.

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt, as we had an unconfirmed low on FGSI and buyers were attempting to bounce from that area. We mentioned danny and 400bar MA as being important near term, while ML test being the "real test". Buyers did manage to test macro-ML after breaking danny, but were quickly rejected there. However they managed to hold a higher low vs the unconfirmed low and then staged a very impressive rally to win back macro-ML and ML, before peaking in the same 4530-4540 area. The decline into the RTH close was vicious and broke back below ML.

Sunday's session didn't do much, price whipsawed around ML neither side being able to make the breakout/down stick. Today followed the same pattern, with price spending actually more time below ML than above. Nonetheless buyers are attempting to breakout again now. We have both bullish and bearish EE on FGSI, so those lvls are important to confirm the direction after price moves away from ML.

ST Trend: neutral (potential ST bounce underway)

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was down, with potential bottoming attempt, as price kept making lower lows after losing ML and despite hitting extreme pessimism on FGSI several times. We did mention that once danny gave way the bottoming attempt would be confirmed and indeed once danny failed to cap price, buyers pushed it all the way into a ML back-test. Initially ML held, but buyers managed to make a higher low on the pullback from there and then broken above ML convincingly. We did get another ML back-test (from above this time), right before the "famous" late Friday ramp.

The o/n action since Friday's RTH close was as text-book as possible. Pullback after hours on Friday, then another push to minor new highs on Sunday, highs which remained unconfirmed on FGSI. Then pullback from there and another test of the highs on Monday before finally giving up and having a pullback into a ML test. ML is the key line in the sand, as usual. Buyers want to hold ML and bounce this back to the highs area to have hopes at another push higher. FGSI hit extreme pessimism on this ML test, so they have a decent chance at that. On the other hand, sellers need to break below ML. Capping price either at danny (ideally for sellers) or at least 400bar MA is what sellers want to see. FGSI is already showing buyers are inefficient on this bounce off ML, which is not what they wanna see. If ML is lost, buyers would need to make a stand at macro ML or at the 1st bullish EE lvl (the low where the Friday late ramp started).

ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was up with potential pullback starting as FGSI was coming back from extreme optimism and was showing unconfirmed highs. We did get a few whipsaws, then a proper pullback into a ML back-test before continuing back higher. We also warned that due to FOMC large swings in both directions were likely while waiting for the decision. The market obliged. Additionally we mentioned that the announcement itself is likely to trigger a very large move, while the 1st move is usually fake. The market also obliged on both. We saw a spike 3min after the announcement, then the market waterfalled more than 100 points to reach 4300 again.

The o/n saw an early attempted bounce which tested ML from below and then the market sold off to new lows. The lower lows were unconfirmed by FGSI and that triggered another large bounce (typical action). Buyers got price back above ML and FGSI is showing that sellers are inefficient. So the trend seems to be back to up. Buyers need to hold price above ML to avoid any doubts. As long as that happens, there is a lot of room on FGSI to push prices higher before it reaches extreme optimism and signals a ST pullback.