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mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 10.Feb.21

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ST trend: up with reversal risk

Last 2 days we had an apparent neutral trend in the o/n, with both buyers and sellers showing inefficiency in terms of ability to move price. And in both days it was the buyers that took the lead (back). Today, the trend is up, with sellers being inefficient, however we did have an unconfirmed high at the o/n HOD which could mark a ST reversal. The key word is "could" as for that to happen, the sellers would need to show up and push this lower. If buyers break that level and turn it into a confirmed high, then the up trend will resume.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 09.Feb.21

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ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we also noted that the trend was neutral, because after a prolonged up trend, FGSI was showing that both buyers and sellers were inefficient. We had bullish excess energy (EE) triggering on declines and and bearish EE triggering on bounces. However it was the buyers who took the lead again by breaking the bearish EE level. They also defended the 3886 ES level, which was the breakout of Buyer Exhaustion (BE) Xtick and the Maginot Line (ML) level.

Today FGSI is showing almost the same set-up like yesterday. Sellers are very inefficient, triggering bullish EE on each decline. However also buyers are showing inefficiency on bounces. So the 1st signs of one side taking the lead would be when they manage to break through an oppossing EE and make confirmed lows/highs.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 8.Feb.21

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ST trend: neutral

After the up squeeze on Friday, the market continued to put in unconfirmed highs on FGSI, which in the end led to a small correction. FGSI was showing that sellers are inefficient and did set up bullish excess energy (EE) vs lower levels. However, what is interesting is that FGSI is now showing that buyers are inefficient on bounces and the inefficiency is increasing. The last bounce set up bearish EE. So with both buyers and sellers being inefficient, that shows indecision. So the trend is now up for grabs, whichever side manages to break the EE first, will have the near term trend on their side.

mcm-Alex

mcm daily market update 04.feb.21

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ST trend: up

After the weakness into the close, mkt continued lower, but put in a very bullish situation at the o/n lows. Not only there was extreme pessimism on FGSI, but it was in the context of bullish excess energy (EE) vs the prior trip to extreme pessimism. Additionally it put in an unconfirmed low just after that. Not suprisingly that triggered a decent bounce. That did trigger bearish EE which initially held, but was afterwards bought to new highs and the bearish EE level was broken and turned into confirmed highs. That also has the potential to be very bullish. Sellers are also inefficient on this decline and a bullish EE is already set up vs the prior low. These are all bullish signs, so the ST trend is up. The only way bears would be able to reverse this into a more immediate correction would be to break that bullish EE level, however with the maginot line (ML) also being a few points above it, that looks unlikely.

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