Posts

Pushing Towards a Cliff Around 12th/14th – Daily & Weekly MSP

Lots of cross currents and chop. Increasingly poor/aberrant behavior in markets seems to be pushing us into the 12th to 14th cliff discussed in the longer-term market structure projections. All outcomes point to a combustible situation. One of the things to look for is when markets disconnect from structured behavior as this usually indicates a forced changes to market participant behaviors that later turns into a larger market impact. Recently we have had a few days in which daily directional  probabilities were contradicted, they very likely point to this exact type of situation.

One note, if one wished to take the time to review posts and articles here, you can see that even on the day's where daily probabilities were contradicted in MOST everycase, intraday probabilities gave that clue very early and clearly. (The Grid View is great for this and has fast search tools keys at the top of the page) Additionally, e-Tick-Tools emotion analysis made even the most difficult days to understand much clearer. Yesterday, for instance, there was an X-Tick on the opening bar indicating buy capitulation. And at the lows there were a cluster of sell extremes and a capitulatory X-Tick at around  2051 and 12:00 PM...and Accumulation Index (also a form of efficiency and emotion analysis) closed at the high of the day...which have so far led nicely to today's follow on upward movement.

So far this week, market structure has reverted somewhat as discussed below. Looks like a lot of volatility is on deck into next week with a potentially large move up into the week of the 12th to 14th. Additionally, generally, July 4th weekend puts a pause in things. Both this week and next week - momentum peaks on Wed and turns down into the end of the week. This Friday is not projected to be a high volatility day in terms or downside. We will see.

Good luck out there and be careful...longer-term timing approaching. Though this is a dangerous market, it's very easy to get overly bearish (or bullish even) and get chopped up.

July 1st, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

July 1st, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

EURO Broken, Breaking and Broke – Greece Plays Its Hand

EURO Broken, Breaking and  Broke

EURO Broken, Breaking, and Broke

The ECB thought they could back the Greek Government and leadership into a corner with no other choice than an insipid self-destruction that would have left them, culpable, maligned and threatened by their own nation. Soon to be replaced by a trinket government installed at the whim of a few EURO bureaucrats (or Neo-Nazis - take your pick).

Greece played it about as well as possible. Knowing that the objective of ECB and Germany was to make sure that no other political administration in the crumbling European Union would ever be willing to commit such an act of defiance and humiliation against central planners. They waited till after markets had closed to announce a referendum and to "stick the finger" to the central planners (see ECB & EU Strategy – Political, Not Practical). During the afternoon on Friday, Greece made overtures but just after the close of the markets they gave no wriggle room to a central bank that thought it owned the outcome of the situation.

This era, characterized by the senseless debt pumping by central planning bureaucrats all over the world, has destroyed many lives and is presently in the process of destroying millions more - which will inevitably be the driving force of more complex conflicts between nations. The fact is that, via side deals and convoluted transactions with the US FED, virtually all sovereign central banks operate US FED policy by proxy. Almost all of them are precariously close to losing control of the leverage they have been so desperate to pretend is a catalyst to growth when in fact it is clearly the opposite (see these charts). IMF and BIS have been projecting wild fantasies regarding Greek growth for years. As it appears, these delusions are influenced by blind deference to the concept that something can be created out of nothing by a few bankers with a "control-P" key. Sadly this is not the situation as so clearly shown in IMAGINARY NUMBERS. With so little real capital available and so much leverage, even a little disruption can have grave implications. The next months and weeks will likely reveal more regarding leverage (more accurately deleveraging) implications.

Leverage - Where are we now?

Leverage - Where are we now?

These crises arising all over the world may be a catharsis for people in the end, but it will be one of the most painful paths possible for rejuvenation. From this perspective, Greece knows they are in pain, it can not get much more intense for them. What you can not pay for does not get paid - so, there is somewhat of a limit. BUT IT CAN GET VERY PAINFUL for debt-pushing central-planners. The implications of huge and contagious CDS & derivatives losses, financial instability and challenges that are all pointed at the feet and minds of central planners (as opposed to indebted governments) is likely to be a trend.

If there is one lesson from Greece, it is while the drug is offered - take it. When the drug causes ill health and death, for the history books, make sure its manufacturers and pushers get the blame.