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S&P500 Market Structure Projections

S&P500 Market Structure Projection

S&P500 Market Structure Projection

Since, people are sufficiently frustrated and confused to be heckling and both negative implication and positive implication posts and articles. I figured it was time to update the market structure projection as we are getting a balance within a downtrend. The bounce is larger than I would have preferred but most likely is a bounce meeting a downward push. Normally, the first few days of December are probable of being bullishly inclined, hence the question of whether the low that we got last week was dramatically left translated as shown in the first box on the start or whether it needs to average to itself somewhere in the middle around the marked [1] comes up. Currently, systems that were holding long trades closed out yesterday at the close, which suggests that this rally is ripe. Moreover, we are approaching a time when people are looking for Santa Claus, yet all the data. This analyst sees suggests Santa Claus may not have quite so much spry in his step this season. We are entering the phase of weakness mentioned on these pages over the last weeks, which suggests downward bias into February or March next year. The posted NYSE charts also provide anecdotal evidence that we are at a pivotal market point. We suggest that you take a look at those charts again as the Hindenburg omen's their placement timing and patterns overall are concur with market structure projection at this time.
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Particularly Grave Setup in NYSE – Fly In the Ointment or Ointment on the Fly?

Earlier today, we mentioned the grave set up occurring on the NYSE. Almost all analysts seem to be missing this, especially most wave analysts. The reality is that we have a succession of three clusters of MCM Hindenburg omen's, all of which marked major turns within the recent market structure. This is nearly the identical set up as what occurred in 2007 and 2008. We are not Hindenburg Omen enthusiasts, the MCM Hindenburg is another matter entirely and is extremely bearish accurate and very rare. The MCM Hindenburg Omen shares one thing in common with normal Hindenburg's: "Clusters of them should be interpreted as being dangerous". We have a particularly large cluster and particularly ominous pattern.

Additionally today, the NYSE attempted to break over a previous levels chart resistance. It failed on this attempt. Action like this is symbolic of failure to recapture a previously broken support, which became resistance and which is now resistance again in a more significant way since we have fallen beneath it again. While it is possible to be recaptured but it is not necessarily the greatest odds, however, if it is recaptured and especially if we break above the yellow primary degree resistance at 10430 or so - that is a good warning that the up move may be extendingThis exposes the meat of the thin zone, which targets a significant drop if it were to be filled. As can be seen from history on this chart, thin zones are usually filled in quickly and accurate.

NYSE Hindenburg and Tops Comparison

NYSE Hindenburg and Tops Comparison

NYSE Detail

NYSE Detail

NYSE Big Picture

NYSE Big Picture

Another Look at the Hindenburg Omen

To significant effect market behavior has significantly changed since the last mcm Hindenburg Omen. This could be a lasting negative or with the very low-quality action on the markets now generate another Omen into September. Either way this chart deserves some respect - the RED marks on this chart are mcm Hindenburg Omens. Notably a cluster of RED triggers is something to be concerned about since these are very difficult to trigger and much more sophisticated than a standard Hindenburg Omen. We will post updates if anything new transpires - but currently this current omen is still in effect and currently working.

mcm Hindenburg Omen History 2007 to 2015

mcm Hindenburg Omen History 2007 to 2015

Mixed Messages

Today registers as one of the strongest momentum days of the week - usually up biased. Taking this seriously. Daily MSP points to a near-term high today AM, which could already be complete. What should have been a reasonably powerful market structure for progress today has shifted probabilities significantly more negative. If a 10:30 AM high takes at the 7:00 AM pre-market highs that could repair some damage. However, a bounce into 10:30 AM (which would be expected) that fails, and especially if its lower than the 7:00 AM highs, would be a sign that momentum today could have inverted and favor further weakness and a close near the lows. So, some mixed signals. However, also recall, the mcm Index/internals charts posted ([1] The BIG picture on the mcm Hindenburg Omen – DO NOT TAKE THEM LIGHTLY, [2] Drama in the Market Seas – a revealing look via the MCM Market Indexes and [3] Weekly/Daily MSP Probabilities Update). Negatives abound and this is a very dangerous and fragile environment.

June 24th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

June 24th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Weekly/Daily MSP Probabilities Update

Below is the updated daily weekly MSP probability bias chart. We are tracking exceptionally well as has been the case for the whole year. A period of sustained down bias appears directly ahead. Top is likely in on a probability basis for a while or there is a moderate possibility that an upward push early next week could be better test. Market is highly precarious.

Keep in mind also that bias towards WEAK "day session performance" increases on Friday's and Monday's presently. Therefore, any overnight price progress, at best, is likely to run into sellers during the day session hours. (Note: each vertical line on the chart below represents the AM session open around 9:00 AM - not the 4:00 PM close)

June 18th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

June 18th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

Lots of talk about another Hindenburg Omen yesterday. The mcm Hindenburg Omen did not trigger and though another standard Hindenburg occurred, it's anecdotal at this moment. Below is an update of the mcm Smart Money Index and also the mcm Market Close, mcm Market Open, mcm Gap and mcm Day Session Indexes. All except the mcm Day Session index have continued to weaken - some dramatically. mcm Gap Index has achieved its blow off as markets attempted to levitate prices via the overnight session, but that has begun failing now too. Very precarious picture putting it nicely.

June 18th, 2015  mcm Indexes

June 18th, 2015 mcm Indexes

Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projection Update Probabilities: DOWN

Below are updated daily and weekly market structure projections with extensive notes. There was an mcm Hindenburg Omen on Thursday last week in addition to highly weak performing bias for Friday and Monday. Comments regarding this potential were made on these pages though we were hoping to see market hold up into Friday or Monday. Using our tool set our adaptation for the market true directional probabilities were reassessed each day at around 4 to 5 AM and adjusted correctly for each day. Intraday, market structure has been behaving MUCH more reflective of a bear market tendency which is towards eccentric and unpredictable behavior during the cash session.

One comment regarding the potential for positive biases as NOT reflected as high for the near-term. There are lots of Elliott wave labels possible to indicate this or that upward structure. We find EW most helpful but within what fits in the probability skew of projections NOT in what looks pretty or entertaining. Though all market potentials should NEVER be dismissed, it is most common for a change in direction to drag along the previous mentality and preconceptions even for the best analysts. This is one reason that using probabilities reduces emotions. When the markets do something, not within the probability skew - the edge is compromised, and the next fractal for probability needs to be assessed as we have been doing on these pages. This process creates much less wasted energy or effort. Therefore, consider keeping analysis consistent and simplistic at market turning points where emotions, mental, macro analysis can lead to confusion and drag past behavioral expectations forward.

If the weekly market structure projections are correct, then we should start to see markets take on more traditional behavior during the cash session. Counter-intuitively is "up biased" for most of the cash session into 12 or 2:00 pm with large down moves overnight into the next cash session trapping bearish traders in the live session.

One note regarding what has the potential to become a larger change in character for the markets over the next weeks and months. This has been mentioned previously, but we will reiterate. There is a very high proportion of upwards price bias in strongly down trending markets. Most of the moves happen before the cash session and trap traders for 5 hours or so before relenting back towards downward potential into the close and in the single digit hours overnight.

June 16th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

June 16th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

For reference, we are including the last post for reference. As can be seen nothing changed in the chart and there was quite a lot of valuable data represented on it.

June 10th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections (Previous Post Reference)

The BIG picture on the mcm Hindenburg Omen – DO NOT TAKE THEM LIGHTLY

Last week we posted our proprietary mcm Hindenburg Omen event. We find Hindenburg Omens only of anecdotal and entertainment value. HOWEVER, the mcm Hindenburg Omen has SERIOUS implications. This does not mean the market crashes - though it could. However, every time except the last triggers in early January this year a decline of greater than 6% has occurred. It is much more precise and difficult to trigger. We also have an mcm Wright Bros Omen (seriously) that is pretty much the opposite of the mcm Hindenburg Omen - though we have not settled on a name...suggestions welcome.

In any case, this post shows a lengthy history for perspective and for your research on this type data.

Below are the images. The historical images are very large: if the images to NOT Open full size for you right-click on them and choose "open image in new window or tab" to see at full resolution.

mcm Hindenburg Omen History

mcm Hindenburg Omen History

mcm Hindenburg Omen History 2006 to 2015

mcm Hindenburg Omen History 2006 to 2015

mcm Hindenburg Omen History 2003 to 2009

mcm Hindenburg Omen History 2003 to 2009

Intraday Market Structure

Weekly Market Structure projections turn down this week (ideally mid week). Daily as of today. Friday's and Monday's have a tendency towards weak price action at this time. Markets we so weak that they could not conform to a modest consolidation or up bias into this morning. This is an ominous sign. When markets start deviating in this way, it suggest there is a change of consciousness occurring. Combined with the warning signs we got last week and the mcm Hindenburg Omen - price action has elements in place to get ugly fast.

June 15th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

June 15th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Live Versus Memorex: Today’s Bi-Modal Intraday Market Structure

Below is the reconciliation of today's real-time calls. From top down on our Weekly, Daily and finally on the Intraday (shown below) with added data from Emotion, Flow and Gap...there were significant and obvious elements that simply eliminated the low probability outcomes.

Bi-modal switching in action real vs analysis reconcilliaton

Bi-modal switching in action real vs analysis reconcilliaton

One note, regarding probability related a Hindenburg Omen. As mentioned in the AM post on the subject, normal Hindenburg Omen's are unreliable and in fact rarely useful. However, as the name implies, there is a tremendous romantic attraction for people to short them...which has the direct effect - even in the rare case that they do work - of going against these traders initially. Given that we got a MCM Hindenburg Omen, the implications are much more bearish than normal, however, the nature of the setup is still in play because of the proximity to standard Hindenburg's, which implies that the lowest possible risk entry is to look for the squeeze that usually occurs and also that the market flow data seems to anecdotally support as well.

MCM Hindenburg Omen Triggered Yesterday

Had a bunch of charts to post this morning, but some internet connectivity problems that slowed things down to a crawl. Will post them later as am on another computer system.

The MCM Hindenburg Omen is NOT a noisy, unreliable entertainment vehicle that can be employed to sell subscriptions. It's funny, whenever the word Hindenburg is in any post - traffic for that post goes way up. However, Hindenburg Omens are wrong 19 out of 20 times and, therefore, actually useful as a buy signal most of the time. Our tool is much more relevant. It has been designed to produce reliable feedback that fulfills the stated but missed intention of a standard Hindenburg Omen. On the charts, you can see the standard ones marked in yellow and the MCM version marked in Red.

Support over the recent X-Tick held and it does look like the drama will extend over the weekend. Possibly into the Fed schedule early next week. So, the up biased daily market structure is still in play. But it is time to make sure seatbelts are close at hand.

June 12th, 2015 Hindenburg Omen

June 12th, 2015 Hindenburg Omen