OPEX Intraday MSP Projections

OPEX Inflection Point? Friday Intraday Projections

This week's options expiration activity matched 20-year expectations for market structure production. With strong rally shown in red starting at around 11 AM. The data shown below is specific to options expiration week behavior. So far, options expiration Friday is following the market structure projection normals, which are indicated by the red projection on the chart below. Normally, acceleration occurs in the 2 PM area specifically in the last hour and a half of options expiration Friday. In this case, the edge is for a down in reaction. However, take note that in strong bear market moves where options expiration has been proceeded by. A weakness the last hour and a half to two hours of the Friday expiration can be a relatively sharp upwards reaction. This is not expected today, as our desperate and panicked central bankers have done a fine job of messing up the best-planned option positions into this week.

As a note, yesterday was a very unusual day with the tools triggering the equivalent of the strongest buying efforts in the last 15 to 20 years. This registered with a 100% percentile X-Tick and a breakout over this emotional buying extreme for one of the strongest buying panics and buying capitulations that we have witnessed. This was truly extraordinary if not a bit shocking, especially given the limited amount of cash that flowed into the market yesterday. Generally, mcm expectations for this week were for a consolidation week from last week's highs followed by a further upward bias grind into early November. Yesterday's buying panic, however, especially when combined the pending low expected in the dollar, sets up the risk markets for some significant headwinds. Though edges into November in the equity markets are positive, probabilities favor day-to-day weakness with large spikes interspersed between – most likely triggered by hyperbole from our central planning contingent.

OPEX Intraday MSP Projections

OPEX Intraday MSP Projections

Finishing with a Flourish? Projections Suggest Weakness Ahead

We are approaching key areas as shown on the Levels charts. 1990 to 2010 is a significant area on the SPX cash index. It would be reasonable to expect a reaction from this area. Additionally, market structure projection suggests early strength is likely to be dissipated into the afternoon. Moreover, Wednesday and Thursdays directional bias is significantly weaker. On top of market structure projection suggesting weakness ahead, which could be pronounced - we have the moon cycles – which are approaching the last moon and a new moon series. A weak reaction to the last moon could intensify the reaction to the new moon. Below is a chart of market structure projection for the intraday, which suggests timing around 10:30 AM and 2 PM. Either area is a valid place for the market to turn from upwards to downloads, 10:30 AM is the higher probability. However, to put things succinctly, the general expectation is latent morning strength leads to afternoon weakness.

Other data to note, is that the bias for strength this month ends on the fourth trading day of the month - this is where he currently sits. The implication is not that the market needs to fall apart after that, but rather that upward potential wanes. In this case, given the size of the retest of the currently working bear impulses a pronounced reaction would not be surprising. We want to reiterate again, that this rally does not fit into the structure of a bull market presently due to the working downward impulses on the daily and weekly charts and also the bias of the systems towards "bear market" predisposition.

Oct 6th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Oct 6th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

SPX Cash Levels Chart

SPX Cash Levels Chart

Today’s Short-Term Projections – Squeeze

There was a high probability 3:30 AM timing window today. However, this timing and market structure was not respected so far this AM and additionally the move overnight was too strong for such a structure. Impulses on short-term charts and potential emerging ones one medium term charts suggest move may need some time to metabolize. Yesterday, followed projections nearly exactly - with the low triggering around mid-day as posted in real-time in the lounge and contrasting bearish views expecting breaks to new lows. Presently, it is time for bears to be careful for a few days.

September 25th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

September 25th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: September 11th weakness

Yesterday the markers deviated significantly from structural behavior. Perhaps contract roll for futures contributed to this. We published to this deviation potential live in the "Lounge"early in the morning when the markets should have continued their down movement "This bounce should not be happening here via timing and market structure - we are covering shorts for break even. Lots of small trade shorts are occurring while much larger buys are occurring which suggests retail shorts are likely to get run over" was what was posted around 10:30 AM. This is an example of how knowing what the structure of market can be as valuable when it complies as when it does not. Significant deviation from market structure is an early sign to expect the unexpected. Combined with multi-disciplinary analysis such as the exceptional signals from the mcm-Indexes and the eTickTools, we had actionable early insight into the day's developments.

Today there are no particularly bullish outcomes probable for the day session. However, please remember that the markets are being applied strong drugs and are highly susceptible to erratic unstructured behavior.  Keep in mind, weekly projections suggest a sharp upward push soon so keep an eye peeled for the start of any upward momentum...such a move could end up being pronounced.

Note, today is September 11th. Having lived through the 9/11 event directly and personally please take a moment in tribute to this terrible event.

September 11th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

September 11th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Character of a Composite Day in September

Below is a composite of the net character of all September Biased Market Structure. Each day is netted out to just one imaginary day for each of the databases: 24 QE Era data (Magenta), Inverse Market Structure (Cyan), 20 Year Market Structure (Red) and Bear Market Structure (Gold). What we can see is that if any progress is made in September it generally happens in short bursts of strong days and more than likely very strong overnight sessions. Other than that the general tendency is towards weakness during the day session. Highs like to form int he pre-market between 3:00 AM and 6:00 AM EST and lows like to form in the afternoon in the 1:00 PM to 2:00 PM timing. So, this makes the pulse of the market in September orient around a timing window of 5:00 AM and 1:30 PM with generally only two timing points. This is unusual as it is more usual to have three. However, these structures may be quite useful for trading the rest of the month. We will post additional details for members.

September 2015 COMPOSITE Intraday Market Structure Projections

September 2015 COMPOSITE Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: This is Your Market on Drugs

Yesterday we indicated in "the lounge" that either early AM highs were dominant and likely to lead to closing near the lows. A bounce into the Open would likely lead to opening highs with a reactionary drop into midday area and strength in the afternoon. The anticipated bounce are mid-day was attempted but failed and reverted highest probabilities to the former scenario. Today is again another similar session - however with less upward potential organically. Therefore, be alert for AM highs and potential stabilization attempt into the noon area once again. If noon stabilization or bounce attempt fails then it is likely again that market may be leaning towards a weak afternoon once more.

As a note of reminder, the reason we made such a large effort to educate regarding impulsive cycle and eTickTool Extreme breaks was specifically because the market is on drugs, as it were, and may go on wild trips. Please continue to pay attention to the impulses with a keen eye and feel free to ask any questions regarding identifying them. Yesterday's impulses that nested up were tremendous as were the impulses that nested down and suggested that a downside risk was not insubstantial.

Also, note yesterday had positive buying via large share trades as shown via our cash add and withdrawn index. Once the intervention attempts were overwhelmed by the apparent advance knowledge of Brazil (emerging markets downgrade)and China Yuan devaluation, this index went negative for the first time during the day and risks also turned decidedly adverse for a larger bounce. This index is very important and an easy way to spot successful or failing intervention attempts or for that matter convicted buying or selling by institutions.

We would like to remind that the weekly MSP propensity is, as we see it, currently in a period of large volatility chop/consolidation and requires a break or failure. We feel that the most likely scenario remains a break to the upside somewhere in the vicinity of the week of the 21st which then fails into a 5 to 6-week downward bias. It is easy to get bearish too early while it appears that the market has work to do.

September 10th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

September 10th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Market Flux Capacitor Powered by Vapor

As we are all probably aware a "Flux Capacitor" can be powered by leftover orange peels, aluminium cans, already smoked marijuana, delusions of grandeur or Grand Mariner Cognac. Currently, the prime question is what are the Central Planners consuming and how much more "delusional of Grand Mariner" are they capable becoming? Yesterday was truly impressive.

Today's market structure projections, favor a 6:30 AM high with weakness thereafter into the open. 50/50 odds of attempt to buy open could lead to some strength into mid-day.  However, strength into the open or NO BOUNCE near it alters this scenario risk skew with prices will likely bias towards AM weakness from the open with stabilization attempt in the afternoon via strength/recovery in the afternoon. however, please note the comments on the chart.

August 21st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 21st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Enough Drama on the Seas?

There are quite a lot of charts coming together in the longer-time frame that should get bears nervous near-term. However, Today was projected as a down AM as discussed yesterday. Given the intraday MSP, it could look like markets may have in the optimistic case, a choppy day session into 1:30 PM or could continue overnight more pronounced weakness into 1:30 PM possibly testing the 2044 Cash SPX level mentioned in previous posts. 

August 20th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 20th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projection: Deferring to the Larger Picture

Be warned today can be a tough one for the bears during the day session. One needs to prepare for that. Today is a more or less modal situation around the open. If we reverse any strength into the open - probabilities prefer down into 1:00 PM (with possible acceleration at 2:30 PM) or the reverse. Keep in mind that a move today could become persistent.

On the bigger picture front, Daily Market Structure Projection, as posted last week, indicated a turn Tuesday AM from an upwards directional movement to downwards movement. This has occurred. Today probabilities were also for a lower AM session than yesterday AM. This has occurred, and the condition is met. The largest potential downside momentum in terms of points is suggested with a down AM session into Thursday AM. This can be pronounced and test the 2065 to 2044 area if it wishes. Be aware that we are likely entering another central bank bubble blowing contest and may take an intervention attempt and classically like all central bank activity - will be over done. So, move into early September from a potential central bank panic this week may be torture for shorts and, ironically a windfall for a only a few days for longs who will likely have similar frustration in reaction to it. Strong drop after first weeks of September.

August 19th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 19th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Weakness Approaching

With the on-going disorder in the markets - Daily market structure has been tracking very well.  Implied for today's AM session was an AM session above yesterday's AM session (2080 ES) which has easily been met - overnight pullback notwithstanding. Probabilities now turn to a few days of pronounced weakness.

This brings us to today: Either way with a push higher this AM or not a turn is approaching. Based on the discussion in the lounge last night, AM strength with a turn from up to down was indicated as a high probability around 12:00 PM [1] with weakness in the afternoon. This scenario remains to be respected. However, overnight weakness from 10 PM last night has shifted the probabilities more negatively for the outcome of the day session - increasing odds of most of the day weakness and closes near the lows. This is one of those days where overnight weakness is probabilistically NOT bullish. One of the reasons that it is preferable to run probabilities for intraday MSP early in an evening is that probability calculations are more accurate after 3:00 AM to 4:00 AM than late evening when cueing up potential the next day inflection points, directionality. Timing windows remain constant, however. Given that we warned that should there be weakness overnight this would significantly increase odds of closing near the lows today.

August 18th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 18th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections