mcm daily market update 19.Nov.21

ST trend: down

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral as both sides were inefficient via FGSI. Sellers took the lead early after the RTH session started and accelerated lower to break the bullish EE level. The market found support at extreme pessimism on FGSI and helped by a Seller Exhaustion and buyers were able to stage a V-shaped bottom from there to finish back near the highs.

The o/n saw a continuation of the bounce as buyers pushed the price almost ~20 points higher. That high was stubbornly unconfirmed by both FGSI and IGSI and once price failed to hold danny and 400bar MA we started the rollercoaster down again. Buyers also lost ML, which is particularly bad. We did hit extreme pessimism on FGSI again and buyers staged a bounce into a ML back-test, which rejected price. It is OPEX today so wild whipsaws in both directions are to be expected. ML remains important for the trend, so where price settles in relation to it will be telling.

mcm daily market update 15.Nov.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as price was stuck in a range and both sides were showing inefficiency on FGSI. We had both bullish and bearish EE at the ends of the chop range, and mentioned that breakout would be telling. ML was also close by and that also provided nice clues. Price chopped around in the range for a bit more and off the cash opened dipped below ML slightly. However buyers were able to stop very close and once they broke back above ML there was no looking back.

Buyers continued to dominate on Sunday, making new highs above Friday. Today we had the usual pullback from the Sunday high, but buyers stepped in quickly to buy the dip and we made another high vs that one. So buyers are in control, as sellers continue to look inefficient on pullbacks. We do have IGSI stubbornly refusing to confirm the highs and FGSI setting up another locally unconfirmed high, so there is the potential for a reversal. The important TT lines (danny, 400bar MA and ML) must give way though. So far danny held support, which limited pullbacks. Once danny finally gives way, 400bar MA is the next inflection. A ML back-test could happen if 400bar MA also fails and if it does, that would be the big decision point. As long as price is above ML - buyers have the edge and this can continue to push higher.

mcm daily market update 12.Nov.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was up, as sellers continued to be inefficient on pullbacks, while buyers had managed to win back ML. We did mention that ML is the key for the trend and that proved to be important. ML was lost early after the cash session started, which was a warning buyers are losing control. Sellers were not able to take advantage of that though and we spent the rest of the day in a sideways chop.

The o/n didn't bring much change. Both sides are inefficient (via FGSI) and we continue to chop sideways, just like in yesterday's cash session. ML is still overhead and rejected price several times - again, just like yesterday. ML continues to be the key level and if buyers manage to win it back, that breakout would be significant. The breakout must be sustained, a head-fake above ML which fades back below would actually be very bearish. So keep an eye on ML and how price acts around it. Given the sideways chop yesterday, today should bring a bigger move. ML should tell us if it will be up or down.

mcm daily market update 8.Nov.21

ST Trend: up

On Friday we were noting that the ST trend was (still) up, as sellers were very inefficient on FGSI. We also mentioned that the important lines on TTs would provide important clues when a reversal would finally show up. The market ended up pushing another ~30 points higher from our post, before finally reaching exhaustion and pulling back for the rest of the session. Once danny was broken on TTs, it was a clear sign a pullback is coming. The pullback was also 30+ points, after which the buyers managed to bounce into the close.

The action on Sunday and today in the am doesn't look very promising for buyers. Despite the news of the infrastructure bill passing over the w/e, price continued to consolidate in a limited range. It tested ML and bounced, but not convincingly and is still below the bounce high from Friday. Buyers also printed a bearish EE vs that high which held. On the other hand, sellers continue to show inefficiency on FGSI so considering that ML did hold, buyers still get the benefit of the doubt. If the bearish EE gets broken, that would be confirmation of more upside. If it continues to hold and we break below ML, that would be a sign a bigger pullback is in the cards.

mcm daily market update 1.Nov.21

ST trend: up

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral as despite earnings misses from 2 heavyweights (AMZN and AAPL), the decline was contained. Price just came to test ML and sellers were unable to push too much below it. FGSI was showing both bullish and bearish EE in a sign that the ST trend was up for grabs. We did note that a breakout/down of that EE would signal that one side is taking control and that side was the buyers. As soon as 4575 broke, buyers pushed strongly and finished at the highs (new ATHs).

Sunday saw a continuation of the up move, with new highs being reached. We had an unconfirmed high on FGSI and pullback from there. That pullback was bought today and we are currently at new highs and ATHs again. FGSI is showing the "up squeeze" set up, as it's declining fast off extreme optimism, while the danny line is holding as support and price keeps making higher highs.

So the ST trend remains up, despite the ST overbought condition. The 1st signs that it will let up will be a failure of danny to hold price. Next support below that is 400bar MA and below that ML. We do have FOMC starting its 2 days meeting tomorrow and announcing its decision on Wednesday, so that will definitely be an inflection point timing wise.

mcm daily market update 25.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was still up as sellers continued to be inefficient on eachpullback, while buyers kept pushing to higher highs. After the cash market opened we saw an initial drop, then a push to a new high, which was unconfirmed on FGSI and which was afterwards quickly reversed. The ensuing decline was very steep as we dropped 35 points in a vertical drop, before buyers stepped back in on extreme pessimism on FGSI and a 2nd sequential SE on TTs which also had an Xtick. That nailed the low for Friday and the market bounced right into the cash close.

Sunday saw a drop from those highs until FGSI hit again extreme pessimism zone (just barely), where buyers stepped in again and pushed price back right to the closing highs from Friday. The o/n today showed clearly that sellers are very inefficient (via FGSI) as every drop generated a big move in FGSI and as a consequence was quickly bought back up. It seems that the market is waiting for the cash session to decide on a clear direction. Above the ATH touched early on Friday and buyers could push another 15-20 points before finding resistance. As long as the ATH holds as resistance, sellers have a shot at pushing directly towards Friday's lows. Both TTs and FGSI currently give the upper hand to the buyers as all important lines on TTs (danny, 400bar MA and ML) are below price, while FGSI keeps showing sellers are very inefficient. So unless sellers step in on the cash open, we could see another push higher.

mcm daily market update 22.Oct.21

ST trend: up

Yesterday we were noting that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We were also mentioning that a ML breakdown was avoided by buyers and as long as that lvl continued to be defended, the buyers would continue to have the edge. And a break back above 400bar MA would suggest a run to the ATHs. That is exactly what came to pass. ML was defended twice during the cash session, 2nd time a SE also came to the rescue and buyers pushed from there right into a new ATH.

The o/n saw a choppy sideways session with initial pullback being bought and then price finally pushing to new highs. Buyers continue to hold the upper hand as the potential topping patterns on the GSIs keep getting busted. We are in a giant up squeeze since 13th of October, with very limited pullbacks, so once this momentum fails, the snap-back could be quite violent. However until ML fails in a sustained way, the main trend is still up and no reversal is confirmed.

mcm daily market update 11.Oct.21

ST trend: down

On Friday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. The session on Friday didn't do much to clarify things and we had a sideways chop day, but which did finish near the lows. Sunday saw prolonged weakness as price made significant new lows and tested the 4350 ES area.

Buyers did stage a decent bounce off those lows (FGSI had reached extreme pessimism), but the bounce looks weak and was subsequently sold. We did get a ML back-test which rejected price strongly, so things look pretty grim for buyers. We are at extreme pessimism again on FGSI, if they can step in again, then danny would be the 1st line to watch. Above that 400bar MA and, of course, ML is THE key line in the sand. Only if buyers manage to win back ML will the bearish character change. Otherwise the sellers would have the edge.

mcm daily market update 8.Oct.21

ST trend: neutral

Yesterday we were mentioning that the trend was up with a potential topping pattern, as we had just finished an up squeeze and buyers were showing early signs of being inefficient. Buyers pushed higher after a whipsaw just before the cash open and we had yet another squeeze higher, before buyer finally exhausted themselves and we had a pullback in the 2nd part of the day.

The o/n saw no resolution. We kept whipsawing aroudn the same levels close to the cash close from yesterday. Buyers did manage to defend ML so far, but were not able to push price back higher. FGSI is showing that both sides are inefficient, so the ST trend is up for grabs. ML continues to be the key line in the sand for the ST trend, so on which side of ML price will settle after the cash open will be telling. Yesterday's HOD is important on the upside, while ML is a must watch on the downside.

mcm daily market update 1.Oct.21

ST trend: down (with potential bottoming attempt)

Yesterday we were mentioning that the ST trend was neutral, as both sides were showing inefficiency via FGSI. We did note however that after buyers had won ML in the o/n, the decline off extreme optimism on FGSI saw ML being lost again. That was a warning the trend shift (back to up) was not confirming. The cash open saw ML being tested from below again, but it held as a brick wall and we got a big down day. The bounce attempt from noon was sold off hard into the close and cash session closed at the lows again.

This time however it seems the weak cash close was no longer a bear trap. The bounce off the weak close was VERY weak, and FGSI kept showing that buyers were inefficient on each bounce attempt. And each one was then sold off to new lows. Which brings us to the current set-up. The trend is clearly down, however we do have the potential in place for a bigger bottom. The last low was unconfirmed on both FGSI and IGSI. And even though the initial bounce off there generated yet another bearish EE which held, this time sellers couldn't push price to a new low. 1st step for buyers to do to confirm the attempted bottom would be to break the bearish EE level. After that the all-important ML test will likely be the next big inflection. As long as ML is overhead, the main trend is down, so no big bounce can come until that is won back. Below the unconfirmed low would break the attempted bottom and continue the pattern of lower lows.