Below is a chart that references the X-Ticks that were discussed in the previous posts. X-Ticks are VERY important events in that they allow a precise measurement and profiling of the energy and emotions being expended in the markets. Today, was a first. Never having traded through a day that generated the single biggest expenditure of BUY energy in all our sample set of the last 15 to 20 years...we got it. The highest amount of BUY energy ever expended in the markets happened today at 2:45 PM. The key with buy energy is that prices MUST stay above that kind of energy expenditure otherwise its aberrant and likely exhaustion/capitulatory. Currently, after hours we just broke the 100% X-Tick at 2068 and immediately dropped 10 ES points. This presents a potentially very serious issue for the markets (Sorry, I mean central bankers) to overcome.
They do not make markets like they used to. Price discovery is more like Price delivery. Market sentiment feels more like market cement. People are so used to centrally planned corruption of the markets that the current repercussions are not easy to be believed because there are 257 central bankers pontificating about how they stand ready to provide liquidity that NO ONE WANTS.
In the chart below is a reprise of the current Daily and Weekly MSP. There is no way to assume what may be coming over the weekend or how high that push could be if it were to happen...but Thursday AM into Friday AM is a currently holding probabilities that are pretty weak. Of course, that does not mean they have to happen. But as can be seen from the chart below, the white line is the projection for daily price direction from each AM to AM session. The market has been respecting the general directional probabilities.  and  are plots into the future from now until Friday AM. There can be lots of volatility, but the base case has not changed, and impulse is down.
It appears the real trouble starts next week...is this week the preamble?
In my experience, MOST analysts miss tops and bottoms because they are looking for too many ideal scenarios and setups. The nice thing about probabilities and data are they are what they are and will simply be wrong or right. But they are not likely to get stuck in the human need for confirmation bias or over thinking.
For reference to the X-Tick activity today that was simply stunning see this post: Overview of Today’s e-Tick Tools Intense Emotional Extremes
For reference, the vertical lines on the chart below represent 9:30 am on a daily basis.
For the record, one of the elements that we attempt and I believe achieve, is market analysis without preconceived bias. Last night pointed to a high on Wednesday daily market structure and also probabilities for one of the strongest momentum days of the week today - usually upward biased. This morning early, before in our expert lounge we lowered the probability of that potential dramatically. This was around 5:00 or 6:00 AM. When something substantive changes, this is one place that is not going to be embarrassed about making the determination promptly and also determining if "EDGE" is compromised. Therefore, the impact of a change in outcome for the market probabilities today for us was of very little impact. It has not been easy to develop this kind of discipline and capability. BUT it is one of the distinct advantages of NOT using indicators and instead using data, statistics and probabilities and combining this with real-time emotional tools such as e-Tick-Tools.
When strongly bullish market structure and probabilities get overrun, often time, market participants get trapped. So, the moves can be as strong in the opposite direction if these participants become disoriented or forced sellers or buyers as the case may be. Therefore, today was and is a potentially important day. It is also, YET ANOTHER good example of using bi-modal decisions to navigate without getting trapped in expectations, opinions or notions.
It was clear in the early morning update that market structure favoring a bullish outcome was no longer highest probability, due to the patterns from 10:00 pm to 3:00 AM. These was a shot at recovering, however, noting all the anecdotal contributors supporting weakness and the importance of performance at 10:30 AM, the market responded in highest probability fashion. Delivering on the BEAR Market MSP probabilities at a 90% correlation. Gap Tools delivered the fill that it anticipated, and that led straight into the 10:30 AM timing. While there, e-Tick-Tools called a capitulatory BUY EXTREME. Which translates to as buying exhaustion. This was NOT confirmed by Accumulation Index, which undermine today's upward movements by showing emotions and execution feedback consistent with selling psychology even at the highs.
This post is not about per se today's outcome, it is about the important to have the humility to adjust to the markets probabilities without hanging onto previous assumptions and expectations. This afternoon 2:30 PM to 3:00 pm is important as we can consolidate there. Probabilities favor further selling from this consolidation into the close. 3:00 pm is timing, and one should be careful and aware at time windows.
Today was a classic example of bias-free decision-making via Bi-modal switching. The scenarios were clear this morning. Given the data and evidence, a slight upward bias was preferred. This was easily adjusted based on a combination of timing and structure setting up a definitive bi-modal switch. In addition to that GAP TOOLS analysis of the gap showed another low probability gap fill and higher than normal gap breakdown probability. An X-Tick triggered at the open that needed to hold. It broke down AND triggered a probability for a stop run against long positions. This all happened between 8:00 am and 9:31 AM...putting 1:30 PM as timing for a likely low rather than high.
Then as shown below the most bearish scenario tracked and moved timing forward to about 2 hours earlier. The perfect way to mitigate emotions and stress. Not every scenario works out - but with this type of evidence, the amount of conflicting emotion and information are minimized. All without a focus on MACD, RSI or Moving Average...which are merely tertiary tools.
Below is the Gap Tools and Tick Tools cut today:
Below are the Tick Tools and Gap Analysis for today. As can be seen, these emotional events were a significant insight into the activity in the markets today. From the very first bar, Gap Tools had a probability analysis favoring a breakdown of the opening range and only moderate odds of a gap fill. Accumulation Index (the magenta line on the price chart) confirmed every low and the market opened with terrible cash flow activity.
Very powerful signals and insight also to the other non-correlated tools in our suite.
Without the need for much more commentary - chart below:
As a note, the breakout over the Green X-Tick this afternoon is significant for bulls, as professional bear traders and scared bulls sold this area very hard and were promptly run over....which dissipated some bearish energy.
Not only is eMotional analysis a unique way to look at the market and for high probability entries, but when combined with Gap Tools, Waves/Symmetry and traditional disciplined TA by an experienced analyst...you get to see high probability setups that converge with other elements that make normal probability work look like guess work. This is a chart posted live in the Expert Lounge - which is a community live conversation, sharing and analysis area. Not only do setups like this get identified but also high-quality learning and exchange occurs. This is very valuable for several reasons:
- It's most likely the best way to learn,
- Great analysis that is useful, timely and executable.
- Others ideas also get shared and great questions asked,
- Feedback from the process is something that we can use in development of enhancements to the process.
If eMotion analysis in real-time strikes as uncorrelated and something that you feel may give you and edge (personally, just look at the chart and I think it's obvious to us it's a significant edge) then you should do a free trial while we are launching the site while its being offered and get to know more about how things work - by working with our exceptional and experienced live analysis talent.
We are in a timing window as posted earlier. These windows have +/- 1 hour usually. e-Tick Tools just generated a Stop-Run Potential Trigger that suggests a lot of shorts are trapped and that we may get a break over the BUY EXTREME that triggered 20 minutes ago and then pullback. Things to keep in mind... timing area for a high poses risk for further upside. Confirmed Buy Extreme suggests some capitulation on the part of buyers. However, the condition for a stop run are in pace and suggest that if we pop higher could be unpleasant for shorts...till better exhaustion occurs. Sell extreme currently in place is at 2119 and a key level at this moment.
Note, the CYAN line on the price chart is the Accumulation Index and it is making new highs as the market is consolidating - could be another indication of pressure could emerge on near-term short risks.
This is a pretty good, in my opinion, example of using Market Facts/eMotion analysis to support technical analysis.
Below is the e-Tick-Tools chart for today. (These charts are updated on a daily basis in the Historical Analysis Charts section of our site.)
Quite a day overall and exceptional day for e-Tick-Tools. Emotional analysis of the market is sometimes so prescient that its accuracy surprises even when one comes to expect it. Today was such a day. The daily projection called for an up day from Monday AM to Tuesday AM. Monday is statistically one of the most bullish at this time and all it could yield was 8 points on ES. So, we can count another notch in the belt for the daily market structure projections. Interestingly, tomorrow is projected slightly up or consolidation with an up bias from this morning's lows. I must say, I will not be surprised with the market gaining traction here and getting an up morning thus fulfilling the daily market structure.
However, without commenting on specifics in the markets this is a time that anything can happen. The charts presented on the weekend demonstrate that there is precious little capital to hold the markets up if something goes wrong. Most investors are not doing well and have not for a long time and do not have much in reserve. To do well in the market you need to operate overnight or buy and hold and operate without a concern in the world that something can go wrong...because as they say - this time IS different.
Below is today's overview of e-Tick-Tools analysis. Also, note a basic view of Gap Tools is also displayed. Gap Tools posts Gap probabilities after the first 60 seconds of the market open...so gap info was generated at 9:31 am. Since the site is new we wanted to spend extra effort to post educational content regarding some of our work. Hence the fairly significant number of posts over the last days. The objective of the blog is not to post with such high frequency. However, markets are at an interesting point. In addition, we wanted to meeting the public with some extra effort applied to sharing things we think are important. We hope for a long and fruitful relationship with our clients and readers.
This is what e-Tick Tools saw today at the open. A bearish stop run RAID of longs warned with text on the screen. A Broken confirmed selling capitulation - which usually means bulls lose. An X-Tick at the time window low and Gap indications in the first minute showing that gap was likely to extend...and fill was not likely...