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Market Structure charts for S&P500

As a test of some new post functionality and a public service, we are re-posting the market structure charts in this post for easy viewing...please refer to the previous posts for details

Current Daily Market Structure Projection

Daily Market Structure Projection

Daily Market Strcuture Projection History

Reference Daily Market Structure Projection History as of April 1st, 2015

for May 19th, 2015

Intraday Market Structure Projection for May 19th, 2015

Today’s Intra-day market structure projection

[dropcap]Below[/dropcap] is an example of intraday market structure projection for today. Key timing at 4 am and 10:00 am to 11:00 am for a potential day high. Only the inverted QE market structure suggests the possibility for a stronger close. This market structure is not playing in the key overnight session and, therefore, is relegated to not high probability at this moment.  So far, 20 year and QE market structure are tracking best and score the highest probability at this point. Time windows are very similar for both - pulling back after a 4:00 am high and then rebounding into the open.

As this market continues to wind higher in this Federal Reserve and central bank inspired inflation - it continues to follow the market structure/timing that their large footprints leave behind.

Intraday market structure projection for May 19th, 2015

Intraday market structure projection for May 19th, 2015

Reference Post Regarding Historical Market Structure Projection

[dropcap]R[/dropcap]egarding the previous post showing the current market structure projections, this is the first time that we have posted these charts on the new mcm site. Given that, there may be some unfamiliarity with these tools. This does not, of course, exist within the current community - which is very familiar with them over quite a long period. We thought that it would be of value to show a chart of the past projections and how our market structure algorithms tracked.

For this reason, below is an actual chart reflecting from April 1 that users referenced in real-time. None of the data on he projection lines changed from the future projection to the time they became historical - meaning as the future became the present. Keep in mind that though these methods have tracked well for a long time there is no necessity that they will continue to do so now. There is no reason for them to change their drift substantially, as we have found that markets are highly predictable and repeatable though the sizes of movements, distentions and reactions may not be.

Daily/Weekly Market Structure projections as of April 2015

Daily/Weekly Market Structure projections as of April 2015

MCM indexes show intra-day bear trap setting up

The indexes below show a potential bear trap setting up:

Bears could be in trouble:

  • you can see on this chart people are expending a large amount of effort via the accumulation index
  • very high amount of downside trade ticket ratio but there are no dollars being transacted
  • There are no dollars being transacted on the "dollars added" graph
    this means all very small trades designed to make the make internals look much worse than they are
  • 1200% more downside trade tickets than upside yet price at highs

NO dollars moving & NO progress by bearish trade efforts = trap

05.18.2015-11.02_MCM_Indexes_SPX

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