Posts

Centrally Planned Unintended Consequences – Oil – Now Nearing Inflection

In a chaos created by abcent minded centrally planning there is OIL. It appears that oil is nearing some inflection point and is another market to add to the early AM post.

Crude Oil Daily and Weekly Market Structure Projection

Crude Oil Daily and Weekly Market Structure Projection

Projections…Heading for a 1.5 Day Wonder?

As represented in daily projections: weakness was expected in terms of down from yesterday's AM to today's AM. Even with the bounce on-going, that condition has been met and bias shifts upwards into tomorrow - possibly slightly beyond - hence the 1.5-day wonder. The end of this week has probability for the strongest weakness so far seen in this move from the highs, this  probability favors any up move near-term to be a part of a failed retest and 1.5 day wonder. Today's probabilities favor an opening strength followed by weakness into the afternoon.

July 28th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

July 28th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

A few additional comments: The fact that we did not test below the 200-day simple moving average potentially creates a bearish situation - one in which the current bounce continues directly to its inflection point and then the 200 day is broken directly thereafter. Normally more weak-hands/strong-hands trade should occur around and slightly below the 200-day simple moving average area.

If intervention occurs too strongly or the bears capitulation is too fast and/or combined with bulls urge to buy beign too strong, this means these hands (conviction) have not been sufficiently tested. Odds of break of 200-day moving average increase significantly in such a situation as opposed to odd of testing it on next drop. The only saving grace would be a retest of 200-day sometime today...but that does not fit extremely well with the scenarios.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 15, 2015

Best to your trading & welcome to our new subscribers

These are key timing for today:   8:30 AM - 2:30 PM EST 

These are key MA levels:  2095 (100sma) - 2100 (50sma) - 2090 (5ema)

These are key Fibs: 2097 - 2107 - 2115

Good day

Here is today's pre market look at the S&P 500 for  July 15, 2015 and good luck to your trading:

 After closing in the first target area on Monday, SPX ran into the second tier of potential resistance yesterday & stalled at the .786 retrace of the recent swing high to swing low posting a high of day at 2111.98.  A similar Fibonacci retracement from all time high to swing low lies just overhead at the 2115 level. If the market manages to clear the highlighted price levels, the probability of a move back to all time highs certainly increases.  Market Structure Projections also have the potential for a key pivot today, so it is optimal to manage long exposure accordingly for the imminent future.

Once again, manage risk, Good Luck and do not forget to keep close notes on the key timing via the MSP as they evolve http://mcm-ct.com/blog/public .

2015-07-15_07-55-27 bear pivot or ath

SPX Key Inflection Point

 

Grand Central Planjections – Overnight & Intraday

Please see the post: "X-Ticks and Central Banks – What is Probability Thinking?" for more detail on possible structures into next week which appears that is may be the start of a significant inflection point for the markets.

We got momentum ignition so far tonight, which was in our sights on targets as a probable outcome. however, such large move in such a short time are distortions and may take a bit to reorient. Given that, an expected high would be probable around 3:30 AM overnight with a pullback into the day session into 11:00 AM to 11:30 AM which would ideally lead to afternoon strength and possible follow through into Monday AM. I ti important to note, that for quite some time the 12th to th 14th have been pointed out on these pages as a set of dates to watch. That continues to be the case. The 12th is the Sunday open session, Technically a strong Friday close could meet  minimum expectations if it wanted to fulfill probabilities into this timing window. However, its is more likely that some further follow through would occur into next early week.

July 10th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

July 10th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Athens/Brussels Edition – MSP update

Strange times we live in. The most reliable analysis for me generally results from early AM market structure confirmation.

Last nights gap had some normal probabilities associated with it that implied a retest or new lows into the 4:00 AM area. Currently 4:00 AM timing is in play with a high. We did get a retest of the lows around 2:00 AM as can be seen on the chart below.

The most significant probabilities and switch revolve around 9:30 AM. If 9:30 AM is fairly strong then the day session is favors weakness from around the cash open. If the 9:30 AM area represents a pullback or test of lows then short bounce with weakness thereafter. With such a news driven situation, the Timing Windows represent ideal areas to look for opportunity - direction implied from the market at the window. If we drop into the afternoon window...bounce or acceleration is probable if market decides to go completely manic making a high into 2:00 PM, then 2:00 PM would be potential inflection point area.

Either way, on day's like today, paying attention to market direction into timing windows while minimizing notions or assumptions about what it path market is on can be more useful than normal - objective reaction in timing is very powerful.

July 5nd, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

July 5nd, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Interesting Chop Session…What’s next?

That was a most interesting day. As has been published on these pages for a while now, starting early this week MSP probability favored an upwards move into late this week or early next week. Anticipation was for anything from a fairly strong counter trend rally to a move to a new high in the 2150+ SPX Cash area. Those remain the probabilities. The case for a new high is reasonable as much as it would be preferable for a lower high on a technical basis.

Mid-week next week does have some positive MSP day-of-week influence as did this week. These day-of-week calculations are rather generic generally in that the data that builds them looks at simplified market structure, specific event elements as well as host of other data like OPEX, Futures X, Future Roll, Index OPEX, Fed Events. They are not intended to be as precise as the daily or intraday market structure projection. However, they are very useful for understanding the context and more general implications.

Weekly, Monthly and a host of other tools are looking at the 12 to 16th as a range for the most probable area for a June monthly inflection point...followed by a fairly extended period of potentially persistent weak bias into the end of the summer.

Note that equity futures roll is today and the Sept contract will be reflected in many continuous futures data. We do NOT use an adjusted contract and instead prefer to have an unadulterated data set with internal calculations for any required adjustments.

June 10th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

June 10th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

Friday Recap

Today at 5 AM we published the MSP probabilistic analysis. Below is a chart of how it turned out. As can be seen from this chart...if one were to be charged with trading on insider information for having advance knowledge of market action prior to it actually happening..these charts over the last months would have certainly made for some interesting regulatory overreach. Luckily, we focus on the S&P500 index here and are in the free and clear...hopefully!

Monday's daily market structure projection continues to be downward biased, and it seems the market needs to do more work but can put in some strong reaction out of this move. As indicated, also on these pages in real time as the SPX crossed the key stops and congestion level at 2097 with a quick and direct move to 2087 was likely. This has occurred, and implications are that any break of this level, which is quite probable targets a pretty direct move to the 2070 major congestion area. This area has been a major inflection point 6 times and four times as support - average reaction from it has been 119 S&P points. This should be a very important area and if measurements are correct, could lead to a very sharp reaction.

June 5th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

June 5th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

e-Tick-Tools produced some powerful feedback again today, Market closed below key emotional extremes set today which is another sign of weakness.

Precipice

This is an unusual situation. Most probabilities are favoring weakness today though the daily market structure projection indicates some favorability for upward bias.

From a technical perspective, Transports and Utilities are near severely oversold areas where a bounce could be expected, which could bounce the broader indexes. However, when cross currents occur like this, the best to be expected is most often - chop. However, a break of 2097 on the cash market could be a serious problem and lead quickly to 2088 if broken.

7:00 am is key timing and 12:00 PM with possible inflection point for the day around 2:00 pm timing window. As long as 2097 can hold, then a retest of highs would be a probable outcome over the next days.

June 1st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projection

June 1st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projection

Daily Market Structure Projections indicated weakness Friday AM to Monday AM. This has occurred with implications for a potential rebound. Characteristically, a 1st of a month is a stronger bias than weaker. However, Monday's are indicated weakly biased today also to the intraday market structure probabilities leaning bearish. With these cross currents, its likely that chop is a high probability outcome.

One thing to keep in mind is that the daily market structure projections for AM to next AM directional bias have been on target at a very high levels lately, and they are seeing up into tomorrow AM. In a case like today with quite a lot of options. Keeping it simple is good, and the fact is, the Daily Projections have a very record. So, their upward bias for today (though my interpretation is for the higher probability of chop) should be taken into serious advisement.

May 29th, 2015 Daily & weekly Market Structure Projections

May 29th, 2015 Daily & weekly Market Structure Projections

Market Structure Discussion & Probabilities Today

Market structure projections favor approximately 6:00 AM +/- lows to 1:30 PM high time windows. This is subject to a potential for 1:00 PM lows if 6:00 AM turns out, as a relatively lower probability but still possible outcome, to be a bounce high. As the Daily Market structure favors a positive bias into tomorrow...seems like overall probability reinforces the early morning lows.

May 28th. 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projectionsa

May 28th. 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

May 28, 2015 Daily & Weekly market structure Projections

May 28, 2015 Daily & Weekly market structure Projections

 

Tick Tools Stop Run Potential Triggered in timing window

We are in a timing window as posted earlier. These windows have +/- 1 hour usually. e-Tick Tools just generated a Stop-Run Potential Trigger that suggests a lot of shorts are trapped and that we may get a break over the BUY EXTREME that triggered 20 minutes ago and then pullback. Things to keep in mind... timing area for a high poses risk for further upside. Confirmed Buy Extreme suggests some capitulation on the part of buyers. However, the condition for a stop run are in pace and suggest that if we pop higher could be unpleasant for shorts...till better exhaustion occurs. Sell extreme currently in place is at 2119 and a key level at this moment.

Note, the CYAN line on the price chart is the Accumulation Index and it is making new highs as the market is consolidating - could be another indication of pressure could emerge on near-term short risks.

This is a pretty good, in my opinion, example of using Market Facts/eMotion analysis to support technical analysis.

e-Tick-Tools Stop Run Potential Trigger

e-Tick-Tools Stop Run Potential Trigger