MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21-25 Nov

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): neutral
Short-Term Trend (60min&135min): down 

Nothing significant to report on the weekly cycles. They are currently oscillating and are starting to move lower from resistances (at 2110.5 ES and 17907 YM). The normal expectation is still that market will head lower until a new support level is triggered. Interesting is that also the directionality tool started to turn and head lower.


Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, YM actually reversed its upward impulse by having resistance  trigger below the break-out level. ES had a BR and an END, which means it could have finished unwinding its impulse up. Last week it triggered a support level at 1983 which led to a strong bounce (helped by the FED day), but then the market came back down and is now close to the support level again. Considering that both ES and YM are close to their recent support, the behavior here is critical for the intermediate term direction. A bounce is the normal expectation, but if the market cannot sustain that bounce and we break below that could start another impulse down which could take the market to much lower levels.


Daily Cycles

The 60 and 135min cycles had an interesting week. Both started impulses up (point 1 on the chart), but couldn’t sustain the upward movement. 60min had a BR support trigger at 2037, which was broken below and thus reversed the impulse up by starting an impulse down (point 2 on the chart). 135min simply reversed its upward impulse and had support trigger only below as a 2nd END of its down impulse. However that support was also broken (point 3 on the chart). The new nested impulse down on 135 is not confirmed yet, since MA did not cross-over. But if the market doesn’t bounce, more or less immediately, it will. Breaking into (new) down impulses on both timeframes, at a time in which also the daily could start the same, would be very bearish. It remains to be seen if a bounce is coming on Monday or we move lower directly.


60 & 135 min Cycles

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