MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14 – 20 Mar

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): up
Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral

Details:
The weekly cycles are still just oscillating, and considering that the market has traveled quite a lot since the support triggered at 1804 ES and 15364 YM, we are now looking for a resistance level to trigger. That would signal the completion of this wave (i.e.the peak of the wave) and reaction there will be key, since breaking above it would start an impulse up. However the normal expectation would be for the market to move down from there until a new support level is triggered. Interesting is that both ES and YM triggered a 2nd Lower Risk Entry for shorts (LRE) in a row. Additionally both are coming to a historically relevant level, to which the market reacted many times in the past. That means the current area is important to watch for either a reversal or a break-through.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles, YM confirmed its up impulse, as the mcm-MA also moved above the break-out level. ES did not do that yet as the MA flat-lined and is now right at the break-out level. Same as on the weekly cycles, both YM and ES came into a relevant historical level. YM is close to breaking above that area (highlighted in the previous newsletter), while ES is now testing that exact level. Going forward it would be important to watch how the market reacts to these levels and also how the impulses will develop and if they will have a regular unwind with BR and ENDs.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 480 and 288min cycles are both currently oscillating after 288min finished the unwind of its up impulse. The last levels triggered were support at 1977.25 and the market managed to hold and bounced after a brief spike below. Currently the normal expectation is for a resistance level to trigger and the market to move down from there until it finds a new support. Considering the oscillating nature, the direction of the next impulse will be important for defining the near-term direction.

480&288min Cycles

480&288min Cycles

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