After moving sideways 2 weeks ago, the holiday shortened week brought a clearer direction, which was down. The market was weak in all 4 trading days and finished at the lows on Thursday. The short term EWT scenario we kept referencing is very close to a resolution now. The low close to 2320 is all important and the separation line between the bullish and the (very) bearish scenario. It did not get taken out yet, so the bullish scenario is still preferred. However the market came quite close and is still too close for comfort for the bulls. Which is why Monday is likely to bring a resolution, one way or the other. Both scenarios point to a strong next move, so the action from here will likely affect the intermediate term trend.
No big change on the weekly cycles. ES is now testing the mcm-MA again and will be interesting to see if this will provide support again. Directionality continues to move lower.
The daily cycles saw an interesting development last week. ES triggered already an END resistance, which had shifted the expectation down once it confirmed. YM did not trigger one yet, so the support on daily YM is still valid. Directionality is still stuck at the minimum level, and is getting a bit long in the tooth for a bounce.
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