This weekend we completed a major upgrade of charts and chart streaming for the mcm site. We added significant new enhancements to the eTickTools Project and we rolled out some new analyses - Historical eMotional Extremes.
From a housekeeping standpoint we will bullet-point the list.
- Fixed Cycle Display and Markers on 5-Minute chart
- Fixed Scaling issue on 1 and 2-minute charts
- Addressed the printing of a double "potential stop-run" when triggering at the open for eTickTools
- Added Percentile Ranking for each buy and sell-extreme for eTickTools - this is a big deal
- Added a Ranking for the volume extreme taking place during a Buy or Sell extreme for eTickTools
- Added auto updating Historical Extreme Charts for both the S&P500 and DOW
- Added an alpha toolset for DAX that is just in testing phase
- Added various other general clean-ups and labelling for tools and charts
The additions of rankings to all the eTickTools extremes is a significant enhancement and allows an unprecedented and high quality of gauge of the amount of effort the market is exerting at a specific capitulation point. The addition or a ranking of the amount of transaction at the point is also a significant enhancement. We encourage you to ask questions regarding any of the enhancements.
Regarding the markets, Daily/Weekly market structure projection has suggested that a consolidation after the projected bounce during the 1st week of September occurred. This is indeed appearing to be playing out. Markets are very bearish and people are very scared which could contribute to a pause in down movement and leads to strength into the week of the 21st. It needs to be made clear that these are contextual time ranges. If you have been reading these pages, you now doubt know that week 1 of September has been viewed referred to as potentially important point for the markets and as such could be a significant turn from an up move to down to new lows or in the more likely case, a down move that comes in the form of a period of consolidation for further highs into the week of the 21st. Additionally, note that MSP was correctly projecting weekly weakness into Thursday, August 20th. However, the turn from down to up did not come during Thursday's day session as projected but rather 9:30 AM on Monday - 1.5 sessions away. It seems to us that a projection made several months ago for a down week into Thursday the 20th being met to within 12.5 cash trading hours is about as accurate as one can reasonably expect during a market dislocation and certainly more accurate than most wave extrapolations and technical analysis would usually be able to be with any reliability. This condition resulted in needed in to rely on shorter term tools: eTickTools and Cycle Impulses for example. We did a webinar on these subject (http://mcm-ct.com/blog/webinar-follow-up-and-content/) and plan another because in the coming markets impulsing beyond emotional extremes and through cycle supports is a key tool that can objectively help to remain on the right side of a market even when the desire of a trader are to take the opposite direction - such as buying weakness when in fact an impulsive move downwards may just be beginning.
As such, eTickTools did an exemplary job of pointing out that the markets were likely under a severe capitulation by triggering multiple X-Tick downward selling impulses during that Thursday's session. We made this post wich is a good reference: Market Consciousnesses – Running Through a Flux Capacitor. Indeed, the markets have been rushing back through time and retracing the gains of the last years. The danger continues to be high, though for the time being abated somewhat.
Below is an updated chart of the Longer-term MSP (Projections) for the S&P500. With the DAX suggesting a shallower pullback, edge is increased that probability of consolidative behavior for S&P500 is increased into strength into  on the chart below. This chart is suggesting a period of consolidation/weakness and then a push into the long referred to week of Sept 21st.