Home TickTools Knowledgebase Ticktools Practical use part 2 – Break-outs/break-downs (exhaustions failing)

Not all exhaustions hold, however when an exhaustion is broken through, that indicates that the trend in that direction is strong and there are higher than normal odds of exhaustions in the opposite direction to hold (if a SE is broken through, then when the next BEs trigger, it is more likely they will hold, as sellers are strong).

The first signs of an exhaustion likely to be broken is the weak initial reaction.

Below is an example in which exhaustions are broken through.

As can be seen at point 1, the cash session opened directly with a BE Xtick, which was strong at 99%, however price never really reacted to it. It moved just a few points below, but wasn’t even able to break below the danny line, which acted as support. After just 2 bars, price spiked strongly to break the BE Xtick with authority. The following back-test was not very deep and was held at the momentum line, which also acted as support. After that, there was little to worry about for bulls as price moved strongly in that direction. At point 2, we see that a SE triggered. As expected, after the initial BE breakout, getting a SE above the BE level is bullish. Cumulative with the breakout of the BE Xtick which is also bullish, the SE had higher odds than normal of holding, which is exactly what happened. We had a strong initial reaction, followed by comfortable back-test aprox. 5 points above the SE level. Price then continued to rise.