Intraday Projections: Weakness Approaching

With the on-going disorder in the markets - Daily market structure has been tracking very well.  Implied for today's AM session was an AM session above yesterday's AM session (2080 ES) which has easily been met - overnight pullback notwithstanding. Probabilities now turn to a few days of pronounced weakness.

This brings us to today: Either way with a push higher this AM or not a turn is approaching. Based on the discussion in the lounge last night, AM strength with a turn from up to down was indicated as a high probability around 12:00 PM [1] with weakness in the afternoon. This scenario remains to be respected. However, overnight weakness from 10 PM last night has shifted the probabilities more negatively for the outcome of the day session - increasing odds of most of the day weakness and closes near the lows. This is one of those days where overnight weakness is probabilistically NOT bullish. One of the reasons that it is preferable to run probabilities for intraday MSP early in an evening is that probability calculations are more accurate after 3:00 AM to 4:00 AM than late evening when cueing up potential the next day inflection points, directionality. Timing windows remain constant, however. Given that we warned that should there be weakness overnight this would significantly increase odds of closing near the lows today.

August 18th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 18th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

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