Intraday Projections for S&P500

Daily MSP as posted last week - showed a moderate upside bias into Monday and Tuesday this week and was discussed on these pages. Reaction from this area very likely can test the 2044 area mentioned last week. Ideally market upwards reaction from last week's lows terminates sometime tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile - Friday was a challenging session intraday with a very compress range during most of the session until the last hour. Today's session should be easier to deal with. Upward bias is favored probabilities into the 11:00 AM to 11:30 AM area from lows in the early pre-market.

August 17th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 17th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Fading Fast

Today promised should be an interesting day. Participation and internals yesterday were horrid. Most buying was done by small trade ticket buyers. Market structure was also sloppy. We tracked intraday MSP extremely well getting an early morning high, and 10:30 AM low a move of over 20 points ES - however, lows should have continued into 1:30 PM. Timing works its magic of course in that the highs of the cash session was 1:24 PM and led to an impulsive decline in the close.

Additionally, e-Tick Tools generated amazing emotional extremes. 93% of emotional extremes lead to 3.25 point ES moves - more than enough to make a nice living. Yesterday's triggers lead to much more than that. The preferred approach is to trade with some running contracts but to book profits incrementally into the average reaction which is around 5 to 7 points. All of our automated trading systems use this convention - using a process called trade reticulation. The biggest problem with most discretionary trading is being enamored with the big large point winners. This is not productive as it leads to consistent losses and large ones at that. The best way to trade is to BOOK PROFIT RELENTLESSLY as my systems do. Yesterday emotional inflection points were triggered, and executable to 16 to 18 points easily - how many trend traders can capture nearly 20 points in a day without taking a few 5 to 7 point losses or worse? BOOK PROFITS - regardless of timeframe - this is the biggest mistake of discretionary traders. 7 points is the diffusion target currently on ES and 7 points is a LOT OF MONEY.

Bias is negative for the AM session versus yesterday's AM session on the daily MSP chart posted earlier in the week - this condition has been fulfilled presently as of the publishing of this article. Overnight session promised chop, and it has delivered. If no early AM bounce appears the most bearish case for today becomes the highest probability [GOLD MSP on chart]. Strength materializes into the open that should be reverse around the open prints into swift weakness. In all cases, watch for 11:30 AM lows and a fairly useless day after that.

From today's lows, wherever they occur, modest positive bias on Daily MSP projections exists into Monday AM. However, next week probabilities turn decently negative after that into midweek.

August 14th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 14th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Central Planners Like 2092

"Blue-Horse-FED-Shoe loves SPX Blue Star Endicott Steel 2092"  - edward quince

In a manic world, what more can you expect. Yesterdays suggested bounce point has arrived and will likely depart just as swiftly. 2044 SPX cash is yet to be tested or even perhaps breached. Highest probabilities suggest that the next 32 hours or next Tuesday into Thursday are high probabilities for such a test. It is reasonable that if a pullback during today's session is moderate 2044 could be tested mid-week next week otherwise it will NOT be a surprise if it is tested today or tomorrow. 2092 SPX cash has been the average price on the weekly chart since early June via my proprietary averages, this is highly unusual and representative of the large price range chop that was suggested as likely to continuing into the end of August.

On daily MSP today's AM session was projected UP from yesterday's this condition has been met and bias on the daily is now for some downticks at least into tomorrow. Either way, today's highest probabilities favor premarket AM highs in the area of 4:00 to 4:30 AM or 8:00 AM and Afternoons lows - possibly pronounced. It is possible that lows could extend into the close but 1:30 PM is highly likely Timing window for them.  The scenario for overnight upside bias was posted in the Lounge last night before the close for specific planning for cash traders. Preferred case, was for early AM highs but with possibility to hold up into the open.

August 13th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 13th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Central Planner Pestulance

In the delusionary world of central bankers and planners, the dynamics at work in the world, economics and markets can all be referred to in perfectly sanguine terms - "Absolutely Normal". This is not, however, how it seems to this analyst. Regardless, they are at risk of losing control. It is important to restate that like recent events that are leading to a chain reaction of other events - central planners were not deterred from attempting to fight and win against nature. No doubt the same potential is being bandied about in the halls of the new ECB and old Eccles building by the diminutive team of Yellen and Draghi. Therefore, please note that daily and weekly MSP are pointing to a possible large-scale intervention attempt by these clowns into early September. 

Back to the subject at hand. Yesterday's intraday was a sloppy noisy mess but generally complied. We stated in the Lounge that edges were compromised and therefore, recommended size be reduced. Towards the end of the day, prior to the close, we published that  Globex session biased downwards and daily projections thought possibly to consider met if market remained at yesterday's levels indicated market should remain weak into the early AM today at least. For today, overnight weakness likely pauses/decelerates in the vicinity of 4:30 AM (could be a running correction) and resumes during the morning part of the day session. This is the highest probability outcome. Modal switch will occur if strength appears out of the 9:00 AM timing window - which would favor strength all day and into the afternoon.

August 12th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 12th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: NOW Everyone is Confused

Now that everyone is thoroughly confused - what malfeasance can a bunch of central planner types come up with next? Given our data, seems like volatility should be a given. Market probabilities suggest some strength attempt from overnight lows into around 12:30 PM and weakness probable into the close. Afternoon weakness, if this potentiality tracks, can become pronounced.

In the lounge prior to close we published that bias towards weakness overnight was probable - with a low around likely 1:00 AM to 1:30 AM. We hope that this was useful for our Cash traders and other traders to adjust. We were aware of the 12:30 AM timing window but not the probability skew at the time we published. This was due to the fact that we had not run probabilities for the timing overnight. Regardless overnight weakness appears with a low in the approximate region so far.

[EDIT 8:00 AM] Weakness into open sets up modal probabilities that support buying around the open with grinding upside bias into 1:00 or 1:30 PM and weakness into close. Weakness has potential to be pronounced.

August 11th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 11th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections – Confusing of the Bears and Bulls

If you were involved in t he Lounge, it has been an active few days. Friday tracked very well to MSP but nonetheless considering the large amount of timing windows was a challenging day in terms of volatility. If you recall, suggestion was for a low somewhere in the vicinity of the 7th as posted weeks ago and referred to many times since. It was our impression that this timing would be right translated and swing into early to mid-week this week. Intraday, several things happened, an emotional X-Tick occurred that nailed the low and immediately caused us to shift focus in the afternoon towards a larger upwards retracement. This was taken to effect with a nearly 13 point rally. It was most interesting that confusion was an apt word for the day, as when the X-Tick occurred it happened on a bar that moved around 1-point...not the kind of thing that makes one think of a top 8% emotional selling effort and certainly something that was looking more bearish for bears and scary for bulls. Nonetheless, the bounce from there was direct and formidable. Expected at this point is a larger longer bounce/reaction before next down move gains traction. For today, probabilities favor AM highs and afternoon weakness that likely extends into Wednesday AM. It is important to understand that MSP timing windows for AM highs is wider than normal and, therefore, can be from 9:30 AM to 11:30 AM - most likely somewhere in between.

August 10th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 10th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Confusing of the Bulls

We have a complex position here in the markets. There is a lot of pull from market structure downwards that appears to be remaining. This likely extends into Wednesday AM or possibly Thursday next week before a larger bounce or stabilization attempt gains footing. Yesterday just prior to the close, we published in the lounge that overnight favored weakness into the early morning session and therefore, for non-cash market traders this could be translatable. However, today has a high probability to be confusing and difficult. We have 4 timing windows today - this is very unusual. Therefore, probability favors volatility. Highest probability scenario suggests early AM lows, strength into the open that is sold into midday with a stabilization attempt starting in the afternoon.

As a modal switch, consider that strength into 6:30 AM or weakness into the open would favor early day session buying and a weak afternoon - after around midday.

August 7th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 7th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Trapping of the Bulls

Thursday is an abnormally weak momentum day for August for the close to close session. Additionally, we are approaching ideal Trap Door Shutting territory for the Bull Trap mentioned previously. It does not have to shut today, but probabilities are not particularly good for bulls. We published upside bias into the AM session in the lounge yesterday near the lows of the day session and risk to the downside thereafter, this probability scenario remains the highest odds. 

Modal Switch occurs at 8:45 AM timing - if this window becomes a low and reverses - then a 2:00 PM high would become a high probability.

August 6th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 6th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Market Structure Projection Update

The market has been struggling and chopping around as well as chopping traders up. Yesterday's session generated some emotion - finally. Two X-Ticks set up some key near-term psychological levels between 2086 and 2087 on the ES futures. Sustained trade above or below this range is likely significant. Probabilities favor an upward bias overnight into roughly the open, as discussed in the lounge. The overnight session has been tracking. The highest probability is highs into around 10 AM and weakness thereafter. Sustaining a reversal out of 6:30 AM area is more bearish but also tracks the general overnight projections for AM highs. Weakness into 10:00 to 10:30 AM with a bounce would shift probabilities towards strength into the afternoon and decent positive bias for cash session.

August 5th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 5th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: Bull Trap in Progress

MSP Projection have guided us well so far. Yesterday day session went about as perfectly as possible with the MSP bounce timing and favorability indicated live with eTick Tools triggers as well around 1:30 PM.  Today, achieving lows around 4:00 Am rather than highs suggests a favorability towards a more sustained upwards reaction - perhaps into tomorrow AM even. Critical is behavior into 1:00 PM timing. If we are making highs into or around this area - afternoon shifts for pronounced weakness. If market is making a moderate pullback into 1:00 PM +/- probabilities favor strength into the close. Currently weakness after 1:00 PM window is slightly favored probability wise.

August 4th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 4th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections