Projections – a View Back & Forward

[dropcap]P[/dropcap]erspective is sometimes quite useful. As a last post in this series discussion the Daily and Weekly market structure projection toolkit, we thought a look at the historical projection compared to actuals and combined with a longer-term forward view might be enlightening in some way for context and an overview of this unique work.

Please keep in mind what this tool is NOT:

  • not attempting to project market scale or symmetry.
  • not attempting to project a trend.
  • not a neural networks guessing system
  • not based on anything indicators/lagging calculations - only detailed historical trade data and geometrics

However, the objective IS to project structural Directional Change over the analysis period on a week by week, day by day basis. Any view to stringing a bunch of projection elements together is distorting their value. A new high projection is not meaningful. Neither is a new Low projection. However, the fact that the market structure is pointing upwards or downwards for the analysis periodicity is the objective and of value.

Market Structure Projection - A Historical and Longer-term View Forward

Market Structure Projection - A Historical and Longer-term View Forward

 

 

Market Structure Projection Update & Discussion

[dropcap]M[/dropcap]arket Structure is very powerful this post updates yesterday's post and also will go into a greater detailed discussion about what market structure is and how our approach can be used.

weeklyProjectionES

Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections May 20, 2015

Below is  detailed chart examining yesterday's live intraday market structure analysis. The objective is to not only present today's market structure projections - but also to extract useful information from these projections even when the markets are in a conflicted stateIntraday Market Structure Projection May 20, 2015

 

 

Daily Market Structure Projection have played out – more weakness ahead

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]hough it looked a little iffy this morning with the inverted market structure low triggering around 10:30 am - right in the middle of the time window, and subsequent bounce reaction. The daily projection have indeed tracked out and imply another day of downward bias tomorrow. You can see that the markers at the end of the lines and how they correlated with the protections.

Keep in mind that these calculations are based on daily movements from 9:00 am to 9:00 am NOT the cash close to cash close.

Some very large shifts are going on in the larger time-frame market structure as market sets up for a significant turn...certainly, save for a short bounce in the very end of May and early June, implications are for a weak period ahead.

Daily and Weekly Market structure Projection

Daily and Weekly Market Structure Projections Update May 19, 2015

Intrady Market Structure Update – Inverted Probabilities increasing

Earlier today, the inverted market structure was not tracking but as evidenced on this chart below, has now begun tracking and the overnight action may be in the end a form of running consolidation rather than pullback. If markets aim for and make a 10:30 to 11:30 am low then odds will dramatically increase for a strong close.

Some other anecdotal structure would indicate May highs preferring to occur between the 15th to 19th as shown in the projection chart. Weekly highs often occur today for this period as well. Therefore, if market makes a high today that would align with daily pressures as well.

Till this occurs, the probabilities still favor the 20-year dataset (RED) market structure projection which would suggest a bounce into the 11 am area....selling into 11 am is a sign the more bullish day session reaction may be occuring.

2015-05-19 Intraday- inverted market structure probabilities increasing

2015-05-19 Intraday- inverted market structure probabilities increasing

Market Structure charts for S&P500

As a test of some new post functionality and a public service, we are re-posting the market structure charts in this post for easy viewing...please refer to the previous posts for details

Current Daily Market Structure Projection

Daily Market Structure Projection

Daily Market Strcuture Projection History

Reference Daily Market Structure Projection History as of April 1st, 2015

for May 19th, 2015

Intraday Market Structure Projection for May 19th, 2015