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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 14, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2468,  20DMA 2469, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2411, 200DMA 2338

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, August 14, 2017

Current MSP has been tracking white through the overnight which would suggest morning weakness till the afternoon portion of the session from the regular trading hours open.  Economic outlook for this morning involves Business Inventories and Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us open up above the 50DMA at present and near declining resistance, so some sort of sharp reaction downward at the open would not be surprising.  Above that we'll have the lower 2460's area providing more resistance with a stack of DMA's and an intermediate minor level.  Further down, the 2420 zone will provide support with the 100DMA, rising support and another intermediate minor levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14-18 August

Last week saw volatility come back with a vengeance. A new ATH was reached on Tuesday with a spike-like move, but that was immediately sold off hard. SPX lost more than 50 points from that high to the low registered 2 days later. Friday ended inconclusively but very close to that low and still in, what appears to be, a crash channel. That was for sure the best feast the bears had in a while, but from an EWT stand-point it is hard to scream “the top is in”. Because the last wave into the ATH was very choppy and full of overlaps, being difficult to file that off as an impulse. Which means the B wave (into the new ATH) option we were mentioning last week is still alive and well and that does not bode well for bears. If that is indeed what we are dealing with, after this (presumed C) wave is done a new thrust to the highs will follow. Of course, strange impulse waves have been known to happen, so I would not bet the farm we’ll make new highs, but if the market stops in this general area I would keep this option in mind. The more the market continues lower, the less odds for the flat and more weight to the scenario the top is in for a while.
No change on the weekly cycles. ES is getting close to the mcm-MA again, so it would be interesting to see if it will provide support again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke back below resistance, while YM is still above and just met the mcm-MA, which seems to provide support. The up impulse is confirmed on YM, but not on ES, which is an interesting divergence. We do have a fresh new LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on ES which is also pointing up (and in favor of the EWT flat scenario).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 8, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2474, 10DMA 2474,  20DMA 2464, 50DMA 2243, 100DMA 2407, 200DMA 2330

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Yesterday's price action had us push up out of the compression pattern and we are currently back up against the all time highs.  Sustained trade above the compression pattern should be considered nothing more than a consolidation looking to push higher back towards the broadening resistance in the 2480/90 region.  Economic data is relatively light with only the Redbook at 8:55AMEST and JOLTS at 10:00AMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 24-28 of July

The market continued the bullish momentum and pushed to new ATHs after a brief pull-back into mid week. The high of the week was reached on Thursday, with Friday seeing a retreat from there. Like we were saying last week - the bulls are favorites and in this environment it’s very hard (and risky) to call a top. The near term EWT option the bears still have is for this to be a B wave (off the low at 2405). And if that’s what this is, then there are enough waves for it to be complete. Of course, there are also a lot of bullish options out there, so the B wave is far from being favorite. That would change with an overlap of 2440, but that seems very far away right now.

No new development on the weekly cycles. Directionality is starting to creep back up, which would be very bullish if it made it to the maximum level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered corresponding resistances to the supports of 2 weeks ago. ES managed to spike slightly above that, while YM has respected it so far. The normal expectation now is for the market to retreat from the said resistances. In fact YM looks to be doing just that with directionality tilting lower and not being able to push past resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 17-21 of June

The market it making history again making fresh ATH and closing very near them on Friday. It seems that the 3 waves decline we were mentioning last week (with the low at 2405) was all that it was, since we held that low and made new highs. Of course this can still be a B wave of a flat and if the market were to stop close to where we are and head down strongly, it would add weight to that scenario. But this option has to be viewed as the underdog now, so bulls are yet again favorites.

Nothing new to report on the weekly cycles. Directionality is worth keeping an eye on for early clues. We mentioned that it’s behavior was not bullish, but given this rally, that might change.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles provided an early warning to this ramp. Both ES and YM had supports triggered. ES canceled the nested up impulse, by having support trigger just below the previously broken resistance. While YM confirmed the up impulse and had a bullish retrace (BR) support. Both those supports held and were pointing up, at least until corresponding resistance level trigger.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 7, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 12:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2422, 10DMA 2428,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2413, 100DMA 2386, 200DMA 2298

These are key Fib Levels:  2442, 2418, 2407, 2393

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, July 7, 2017

MSP hasn't had much of a clue to work with as price has been compressed in the overnight.  The 8:30AMEST spike on the Employment Release would lend confidence to the notion of the magenta MSP, so we could be in for a ride starting at market open.  There are two other items of interest today with the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture had us break below the 50DMA and rising support connecting the two most recent intermediate pivot marker lows.  The current premarket rally will be important to see where it opens.  If it gaps above the 50DMA and back above rising support and over declining resistance and can maintain, it has a clear shot at least to the next intermediate levels at 2323 if not to the next declining resistance and moving average stack in the upper 2420 to lower 2430 area.  Again, below the intermediate 2403 level and things get slippery all the way down to 2383.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 5, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2428, 10DMA 2431,  20DMA 2433, 50DMA 2411, 100DMA 2384, 200DMA 2295

These are key Fib Levels:  2428, 2424, 2410, 2393

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Happy post holiday everyone!  Data is looking rather robust in quantity today with MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00AMEST, US Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, Gallup US ECI at 2:00PMEST, and the all important FOMC Minutes also at 2:00PMEST.  The shortened holiday trading saw us fail to maintain the 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA stack and sold off rather abruptly into the close.  With the systems flat and the pivot marker at the most recent intermediate swing low, buyers currently old the advantage.  Their first objective is going to need to be regaining the moving averages and sustaining trade above the first declining resistance.  Intermediate levels are widely spaced here so don't be surprised to see some serious movement to find either the upper or lower near term levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 26, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2439, 10DMA 2437,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2401, 100DMA 2376, 200DMA 2286

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2410, 2399

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 26, 2017.

The overnight action has tracked both the red and magenta MSPs exceptionally well, and both point to weakness through the duration of the session which should be the theme for today.  Data is light on our first trading day of the week with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of things had us close right on the 5DEMA Friday and currently is set to gap above.  Sellers are going to need to show up in force to push price below the stack of 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA along with rising support.  The only thing that resides above currently is the Primary and Intermediate pivot markers at the all time high.  A sustained break above the current levels could lead to a runaway rally.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 3, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2386, 10DMA 2378,  20DMA 2362, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2323, 200DMA 2244

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

We have a reasonable amount of economic data to hit the tape today with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15AMEST, Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30AMEST, and lastly the all important FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw us test and bounce off of both the broadening and rising support near the close of business yesterday and close above the 5DEMA.  A break of rising support will likely see us go down and visit the 10DMA and the 2373 intermediate minor level before finding more significant support.  Until the rising trendline is broken and trade sustains below though, buyers have control.  Good luck today and be careful around 2:00PMEST if you have any open positions.

Primary and Intermediate Levels