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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the week of 19-25 February

The market managed to bounce back from the lows registered on the previous Friday and last week saw only green daily candles painting. It reached now a bit higher than the 61,8% retrace of the entire decline from ATH, which is quite an achievement considering how vicious the drop was.

The weekly cycles have shown a warning for the bears, by having LRE (lower risk entries) for longs at the lows from 2 weeks ago. ES even triggered a 2nd consecutive LRE at the higher low from last week. Big picture is still unchanged on this time frame, with the up impulses still established, but this correction was big enough that it could trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support at the lows.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show a more zoomed-in picture of the decline and subsequent bounce. They were also showing LREs for longs, albeit a bit early. More importantly they triggered bullish retraces (BR) supports on both ES and YM. The market bounced strongly from there and basically a corresponding END could trigger any time, which doesn't mean it cannot trigger much higher from here.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 2nd week of February

Finally the market stopped the relentless up move and had a rather panicky turn. A drop of more than 100 SPX points in one week is definitely something that draws attention, but it was not only that. The market character seems to have changed also, as the market sliced through supports like they were not even there. This is definitely the first sign of the bear in quite a long time.
The weekly cycles, show just how overextended the market was until last week. The nested up impulse traveled more than 600 points and more than 1 year without any correction big enough to qualify for a bullish retrace (BR). That is rather unusual both in terms of both price and time.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show the same story as the weekly, although the last up impulses started only in October 2017. But they also traveled a whooping 400 points without any retrace. This correction looks as the first serious one and we already have a lower risk entry (LRE) for longs at Friday's lows, which doesn't mean it's over, but the next low might be greeted with a new one, which would have to be taken seriously.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2742, 10DMA 2716,  20DMA 2696, 50DMA 2640, 100DMA 2574, 200DMA 2495

These are key Fib Levels:  2756, 2741, 2736

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 10,  2017

Today's data consists of Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture has us up against declining resistance after cleanly bouncing off the 5DEMA as momentum players stepped back into the fray.  Given the current overnight price action we are currently marginally above the declining support but it is premature to read into that too much because price can do a lot of things between now and the opening bell.  Until a close below the 5DEMA buyers still have a firm grasp on overall market direction, and a break of the declining resistance would give more validity to that fact remaining valid.  The 2725 to 2530 zone will still be a solid area of defense for buyers should the sellers be able to push price down even further.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 8, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 2765

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2709, 10DMA 2696,  20DMA 2681, 50DMA 2629, 100DMA 2565, 200DMA 2489

These are key Fib Levels:  2732

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, January 8,  2017

Data is virtually nonexistent today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index release at 12:30PMEST.  Friday's price action extended us out over broadening resistance and well above the 5DEMA which should lead to some consolidation in the near term.  Seeing what kind of reaction takes place on a retest of the now potential rising support will be important.  A failure from this level hints that a run back at the lower bound is highly probable and a quality fifty point swing at this stage back to the 2690's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – December 29, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 3:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2682, 10DMA 2677,  20DMA 2659, 50DMA 2612, 100DMA 2550, 200DMA 2479

These are key Fib Levels:  2699, 2673, 2662

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, December 29,  2017

With what appears to be the red MSP tracking overall we should see an open at or near the overnight highs with weakness to follow, but ultimately recovering by end of day.  The only data for today consists of the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us gapping up over declining resistance in a now completed compression pattern.  Typically price produces a quick thrust out of the pattern which can reverse quite dramatically.  It will be important to mind the backtest of this level for basing.  Good luck today and have a great new year.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 28, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2596, 10DMA 2587,  20DMA 2585, 50DMA 2557, 100DMA 2509, 200DMA 2448

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 28,  2017

The overnight session, much like last nights, looks set to open higher and is taking on the characteristics of the red MSP which while a bit choppy through the early session looks to add onto the strength that started in the overnight as the session progresses.  Data is abundant today with International Trade in Goods at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST,  FHFA House Price Index and Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, and State Street Investor Confidence all coming in at 10:00AMEST,  and lastly the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

Again we challenged the rising support into the close and looks set to gap higher again this morning.  Until we trade through this level on a sustained basis then buyers still have a firm grasp on the market.  Once this level breaks we can look for the intermediate minor level at 2595 as a clear downside minimum target.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 13-17th of November

The market made new ATHs last week, which is becoming something rather ordinary. However, it ended lower on a weekly basis, after retreating 30 points from the ATH to Thursday’s low. It seems Thursdays are the most bearish inclined days in November, 2 weeks ago the Thursday saw a similar move. Both those moves were however recovered quickly, most of it even on a daily basis. No apparent change on our EWT scenario which is a terminal pattern currently unwinding 4-5 waves. Market is moving slowly higher with some “hiccups” along the way, but whether we turn after a spike higher or market just falls on its own weight after marginal new highs is hard to say.
No change in the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading up again and getting close to the maximum value.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for last Week of October

The market head-faked the bears last week. After a new ATH on Monday which was immediately sold, it declined 30+ points until the low it hit on Wednesday, but then the market came back strongly and made yet another new ATH on Friday, finishing close to the highs. From an EWT perspective, because this week’s low took out the low from the wedge of 2 weeks ago, these are likely sequences of 4-5 waves. Which would mean we are in a terminal pattern. Indeed there are enough waves now to count this as a complete impulse off the August low and even from the March low, so bulls should avoid being complacent.
The weekly cycles are still in up impulses with no sign of an uwind started.

Weekly Cycles

The same story is painted by the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet. In these types of patterns the faster cycles usually offer better clues in regards to a potential top.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 20, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2558, 10DMA 2554,  20DMA 2536, 50DMA 2294, 100DMA 2470, 200DMA 2409

These are key Fib Levels: 2564, 2536

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 20, 2017

A wild ride for yesterday's regular trading hours session brought us back to roughly flat on the day.  Data is light today with only Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  While our rising wedge patter produced a rather dramatic opening drop yesterday, it was quickly bought back up just prior to the outlined rising support and has continued through the overnight with new all time highs in the futures market.  Barring some selling in the premarket, we look set to open back up towards broadening resistance and new all time highs in the cash market as well.  Given the duration of the overall run, you'll likely see selling present itself on any contact of the broadening resistance from here on until a more substantial breakdown ensues.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level Detail