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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 20, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2558, 10DMA 2554,  20DMA 2536, 50DMA 2294, 100DMA 2470, 200DMA 2409

These are key Fib Levels: 2564, 2536

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 20, 2017

A wild ride for yesterday's regular trading hours session brought us back to roughly flat on the day.  Data is light today with only Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  While our rising wedge patter produced a rather dramatic opening drop yesterday, it was quickly bought back up just prior to the outlined rising support and has continued through the overnight with new all time highs in the futures market.  Barring some selling in the premarket, we look set to open back up towards broadening resistance and new all time highs in the cash market as well.  Given the duration of the overall run, you'll likely see selling present itself on any contact of the broadening resistance from here on until a more substantial breakdown ensues.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level Detail

 

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 9-13 October

The 1st week of October went to the bulls hands down. They managed a 5 green candles week, and a new ATH each day except Friday. As we have been saying for a while the bull nest off the low at 2418 is favorite and the market is acting as though that is playing out (this wave being an extended 3rd wave). That would mean that the “perfect world” EWT scenario would have us retrace back to the 2490 area after this wave is done and then push again to a new ATH for the final 5th wave of this sequence.
No change on the weekly cycles. The up impulse is ongoing and now also directionality is turning back up.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we now have new up impulses on both ES and YM. In case the next pullback triggers support in the form of a bullish retrace (BR) reaction to that signal would be important to watch.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 6 , 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2453,  20DMA 2452, 50DMA 2253, 100DMA 2427, 200DMA 2363

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 6 2017

With current price action favoring the magenta MSP thus far we look set to be in for a net flat day with weakness in the morning and strength through the latter portion of the afternoon.  Data wise we have the Fed's Redbook at 8:55AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST and the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture currently has us working our way through the early stages of a compression pattern with a wide range for price to race through.  Sustained trade above the intermediate minor level of 2457 most likely leads to another run at declining resistance at the very least.  Below, the 2440 area should provide near term support on a break of the nearest rising support.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 5, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2459, 10DMA 2450,  20DMA 2453, 50DMA 2252, 100DMA 2426, 200DMA 2362

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2466, 2401, 2389

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, September 5, 2017

With the cyan MSP tracking the best overall through the holiday overnight session, after the initial opening gap down at the beginning of the regular trading hours, expect an overall choppy session.  There are a few items of interest on the economic calendar today with Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, and the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

There is very little of technical significance until we get down to the intermediate minor level 2457 where and the broadening support and daily moving averages come into play.  Coupling MSP and the technical picture it would be well advised to remain patient today if not an all out spectator.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Last Week of August

Last week seemed uneventful compared to the previous 2 weeks. Monday made a new low, albeit minor, then bulls got back in the game by protecting that low with a big up day on Tuesday. Big is a relative term, as that was “only” a bit over 20 points, nothing like the 30+ we got used to recently. The rest of the week saw sideways movement inside Tuesday’s range, so we can definitely say that the week ended undecided. From an EWT perspective we have an overlap of the first wave off the ATH, so now we have clear levels to watch for the bull/bear scenarios. The low at 2417 is all important as breaking it would mean that a nested move lower has started, which would see us a lot lower before it finished. On the upside, 2475 is the level to beat for bulls to be out of the woods (at least for now) as this would seal in a likely a-b-c down from ATH, which would mean new highs should follow.
On the weekly cycles, the mcm-MA did provide support yet again on ES, as we were saying last week. It remains to be seen if it will continue to do so.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles both put in supports. ES triggered had already support at the lows from the initial drop off the ATH, while YM reversed it’s nested up impulse to put in a fresh support at this week’s lows. Interesting that directionality is still stuck at the lowest level, which is a warning the bulls need to do a bit more heavy lifting to get a more significant bounce going.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 14, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2461, 10DMA 2468,  20DMA 2469, 50DMA 2248, 100DMA 2411, 200DMA 2338

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2459(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, August 14, 2017

Current MSP has been tracking white through the overnight which would suggest morning weakness till the afternoon portion of the session from the regular trading hours open.  Economic outlook for this morning involves Business Inventories and Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us open up above the 50DMA at present and near declining resistance, so some sort of sharp reaction downward at the open would not be surprising.  Above that we'll have the lower 2460's area providing more resistance with a stack of DMA's and an intermediate minor level.  Further down, the 2420 zone will provide support with the 100DMA, rising support and another intermediate minor levels.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14-18 August

Last week saw volatility come back with a vengeance. A new ATH was reached on Tuesday with a spike-like move, but that was immediately sold off hard. SPX lost more than 50 points from that high to the low registered 2 days later. Friday ended inconclusively but very close to that low and still in, what appears to be, a crash channel. That was for sure the best feast the bears had in a while, but from an EWT stand-point it is hard to scream “the top is in”. Because the last wave into the ATH was very choppy and full of overlaps, being difficult to file that off as an impulse. Which means the B wave (into the new ATH) option we were mentioning last week is still alive and well and that does not bode well for bears. If that is indeed what we are dealing with, after this (presumed C) wave is done a new thrust to the highs will follow. Of course, strange impulse waves have been known to happen, so I would not bet the farm we’ll make new highs, but if the market stops in this general area I would keep this option in mind. The more the market continues lower, the less odds for the flat and more weight to the scenario the top is in for a while.
No change on the weekly cycles. ES is getting close to the mcm-MA again, so it would be interesting to see if it will provide support again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke back below resistance, while YM is still above and just met the mcm-MA, which seems to provide support. The up impulse is confirmed on YM, but not on ES, which is an interesting divergence. We do have a fresh new LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on ES which is also pointing up (and in favor of the EWT flat scenario).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 8, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2474, 10DMA 2474,  20DMA 2464, 50DMA 2243, 100DMA 2407, 200DMA 2330

These are key Fib Levels: 2489, 2459

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2454(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate), 2374(intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2344(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Yesterday's price action had us push up out of the compression pattern and we are currently back up against the all time highs.  Sustained trade above the compression pattern should be considered nothing more than a consolidation looking to push higher back towards the broadening resistance in the 2480/90 region.  Economic data is relatively light with only the Redbook at 8:55AMEST and JOLTS at 10:00AMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 24-28 of July

The market continued the bullish momentum and pushed to new ATHs after a brief pull-back into mid week. The high of the week was reached on Thursday, with Friday seeing a retreat from there. Like we were saying last week - the bulls are favorites and in this environment it’s very hard (and risky) to call a top. The near term EWT option the bears still have is for this to be a B wave (off the low at 2405). And if that’s what this is, then there are enough waves for it to be complete. Of course, there are also a lot of bullish options out there, so the B wave is far from being favorite. That would change with an overlap of 2440, but that seems very far away right now.

No new development on the weekly cycles. Directionality is starting to creep back up, which would be very bullish if it made it to the maximum level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered corresponding resistances to the supports of 2 weeks ago. ES managed to spike slightly above that, while YM has respected it so far. The normal expectation now is for the market to retreat from the said resistances. In fact YM looks to be doing just that with directionality tilting lower and not being able to push past resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 17-21 of June

The market it making history again making fresh ATH and closing very near them on Friday. It seems that the 3 waves decline we were mentioning last week (with the low at 2405) was all that it was, since we held that low and made new highs. Of course this can still be a B wave of a flat and if the market were to stop close to where we are and head down strongly, it would add weight to that scenario. But this option has to be viewed as the underdog now, so bulls are yet again favorites.

Nothing new to report on the weekly cycles. Directionality is worth keeping an eye on for early clues. We mentioned that it’s behavior was not bullish, but given this rally, that might change.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles provided an early warning to this ramp. Both ES and YM had supports triggered. ES canceled the nested up impulse, by having support trigger just below the previously broken resistance. While YM confirmed the up impulse and had a bullish retrace (BR) support. Both those supports held and were pointing up, at least until corresponding resistance level trigger.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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