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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 26, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2439, 10DMA 2437,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2401, 100DMA 2376, 200DMA 2286

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2410, 2399

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 26, 2017.

The overnight action has tracked both the red and magenta MSPs exceptionally well, and both point to weakness through the duration of the session which should be the theme for today.  Data is light on our first trading day of the week with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of things had us close right on the 5DEMA Friday and currently is set to gap above.  Sellers are going to need to show up in force to push price below the stack of 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA along with rising support.  The only thing that resides above currently is the Primary and Intermediate pivot markers at the all time high.  A sustained break above the current levels could lead to a runaway rally.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 3, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2386, 10DMA 2378,  20DMA 2362, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2323, 200DMA 2244

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, May 3, 2017

We have a reasonable amount of economic data to hit the tape today with the ADP Employment Report at 8:15AMEST, Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index at 8:30AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, ISM Non Manufacturing Index at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30AMEST, and lastly the all important FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture saw us test and bounce off of both the broadening and rising support near the close of business yesterday and close above the 5DEMA.  A break of rising support will likely see us go down and visit the 10DMA and the 2373 intermediate minor level before finding more significant support.  Until the rising trendline is broken and trade sustains below though, buyers have control.  Good luck today and be careful around 2:00PMEST if you have any open positions.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the 1st Week of May

The market continued to move higher last week and did so more convincingly than the previous week. It opened on Monday with a gap up of more than 20 points and Tuesday saw another opening gap up, this time smaller (around 7 points). The high of the week came very close to the ATH, before the market retreated a bit in the last 2 trading sessions. Our preferred EWT scenario (bullish) played out, despite the initial chop which had us question the validity of this (presumed) 3rd wave. Now it looks like this wave up might need another high before finishing and the coming correction from there will be telling to see if this is indeed a bullish impulse up or not. As it looks right now and in accordance with our thoughts from the previous newsletter this doesn’t look like a “real” 3rd wave up, which has us thinking it might be part of a more complex correction which started at the ATH (potentially a B wave of a flat). But we will burn that bridge once we come to it.
Weekly cycles did not trigger any new signals. Directionality is still moving lower which is a sign that it is not time to sound the all clear for the bulls just yet.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles continue to unwind the up impulses. ES triggered a 2nd END resistance, while YM also triggered an END resistance level. This is a sign that the upward energy of these impulses is dissipating. Considering that this is already a nested up impulse (an impulse following another impulse), it is unlikely that the market will have enough strength to break above these resistances and create another nested impulse. That being said, a marginal new high is not excluded, but we do not expect the resistance levels to be broken above significantly.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 24 – 28 Apr

The market moved higher during the past week, ending around 20 points higher on a weekly basis. The low at 2320 held (despite being tested in the overnight on Monday), so our EWT preferred scenario (bullish) played out. However the move from lows was very choppy and does not resemble a 3rd wave, which our bullish scenario would point to. So it is time to re-assess since it seems this wave sequence is turning into something more complex. If someone played a long off the lows here is time to book some profits, and wait to “see more cards”, as they say in poker. The market will give us some more clues into its intentions by how the next few sessions will play out.
Not surprisingly there is no significant change on the weekly cycles. The mcm-MA test did provide support again, as pointed to last week, while directionality is continues to move lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles had again a very nice signal. ES triggered a 2nd bullish retrace (BR) support after the END resistance higher. This support was respected, as the market was testing the BR support also on YM, and the market bounced. The next resistance will be a 2nd END on ES and will likely be strong if YM also triggers.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 22, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2363, 10DMA 2368,  20DMA 2370, 50DMA 2332, 100DMA 2276, 200DMA 2211

These are key Fib Levels: 2371, 2366, 2326, 2315

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2381(intermediate minor), 2355 (intermediate minor), 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Good morning everyone.  Currently the red and magenta MSPs are tracking the best through the overnight so look for choppy marginally upward biased price action on the day.  Data is light again today with the FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture saw us put in our first 1% down move for 2017 ripping through the shorter timeframe DMAs and the intermediate minor level at 2355.  We currently sit at symmetry for the move down from the all time high with the first leg being 1.9% and this current leg being 2% as marked by the cyan intermediate pivot markers.  This current leg is searching for a bottom denoted by that same cyan pivot marker, so sellers need to be careful.  This fact coupled with both systems taking long trades at the close yesterday gives decent probabilities to a bounce of some kind in the very near future.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 9, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2289, 10DMA 2287,  20DMA 2280,  50DMA 2261, 100DMA 2208, 200DMA 2166

These are key Fib Levels: 2302, 2278, 2265

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, February 9th, 2017

We have a few MSP's that are tracking reasonably well with red, white and magenta, so watch for 9:30AMEST timing to sort through them.  Data we have the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, Wholesale Trade at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical picture had us pull back and test broadening support yesterday before embarking on a solid rally that whipsawed the 5DEMA, 10EMA stack.  Buyers are still in control of the market as we continue to break downward sloping resistance and successfully back test it.  The market has plenty of room in both directions before touching any support and resistance so finding something solid to trade against with the exception of the all time high is going to be difficult.  Be careful out there.  Good luck.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 8, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: N/A

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2289, 10DMA 2287,  20DMA 2280,  50DMA 2261, 100DMA 2208, 200DMA 2166

These are key Fib Levels: 2302, 2278, 2265

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, February 8th, 2017

A light day for data with only the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  The technical picture found us at the first of a number of rising support lines at the close yesterday with momentum still on the buyers side above the 5DEMA although price action has been quite sloppy around it, neither side has been able to make much progress in recent days.  If a breach of support does take place today be cautious of a sharp reversal back above when the 5DEMA and 10DMA stack are touched.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 3, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:15AMEST, 3:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2280, 10DMA 2283,  20DMA 2277,  50DMA 2256, 100DMA 2203, 200DMA 2163

These are key Fib Levels: 2302, 2267, 2259

These are key primary and intermediate: 2275(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, February 3rd, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  The overnight session is continuing the range racing mess that we've been dealing with the past couple of days.  The red and magenta MSPs have tracked the best overall through the overnight session, so we should see some weakness as the regular trading hours session begins.   On the data front we have the Employment Situation at 8:30AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, ISM Non Manufacturing Index also at 10:00AMEST, and lastly the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical side of the hous has us pushing even deeper into the apex of the compression pattern that was outlined in yesterday's update.  There is a great deal of potential energy being stored in this so the directional move out of it should be a good one.  Good luck today and we hope you have an outstanding weekend.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2270, 10DMA 2261,  20DMA 2262,  50DMA 2211, 100DMA 2183, 200DMA 2144

These are key Fib Levels:  2162, 2152, 2175

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2278(intermediate minor), 2254(intermediate minor), 2214(intermediate minor), 2189(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 11,  2016

Price action in the overnight has been very choppy, so a preferred MSP has been very difficult to discern.  Timing at 11:00AMEST will be key in the vetting process to see what type of bias will remain for the trading session.  Another light day on the data front with Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations at 10:00AMEST, and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of the house still has us bouncing between the stacked moving averages, 5DEMA, 10DMA, 20DMA.  Basic assertion is a consolidation area here for buyers until one of the previous pivots are broken on the rise up from the previous intermediate minor level at 2234, that pivot being at 2260.  Good luck today and profitable trading!

Primary and Intermediate Levels