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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 19, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2751, 10DMA 2750,  20DMA 2735, 50DMA 2748, 100DMA 2691, 200DMA 2585

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Monday, March 19, 2018

Today the market is spared from the economist with no releases to speak of.  We are set to open markedly lower this morning down near the 20DMA below 2740.  Reasonably decent support should come into play at the 2727 intermediate minor level and broadening support which price has been sliding down the past few days.  A breach of that most likely takes us back below 2700 and to the next lower intermediate level with the 100DMA.  Overhead we have both a primary and intermediate pivot marker in play along with declining resistance and primary and intermediate levels all clustered just above 2780.  Between the two is a range racing paradise.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 14, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2760, 10DMA 2733,  20DMA 2727, 50DMA 2745, 100DMA 2680, 200DMA 2574

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2807, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for  Wednesday, March 14, 2018

The Remaining data for today's session consists of the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations and Business Inventories at 10:00AMEST, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  Yesterday saw us hit the psychological 2800 level before selling off back to the 5DEMA  where momentum traders stepped back into the fray.  With broadening and rising support coupled with the moving averages and intermediate minor level at 2727 should prove to be solid support for buyers.  Below that zone and things get thin at least back down to the intermediate minor level and 100DMA in the upper 2600 zone.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 7, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2706, 10DMA 2720,  20DMA 2699, 50DMA 2737, 100DMA 2670, 200DMA 2561

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 7, 2018

The overnight price action was a sellers delight with price dropping over 40 points in less than an hours time.  The implications on the cash chart are going to have us breaking the rising support after multiple failed attempts at the intermediate minor level at 2727.  We are currently set to open between the 5DEMA and the 20DMA and have a intermediate minor level just underneath at 2695.  We'll need to look for some confirmation by way of an intermediate pivot marker upon open at yestarday's highs.  Should sellers be able to push price below rising support and the 100DMA at 2670 then a much more severe decline becomes a high probability.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 27, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2729, 10DMA 22712,  20DMA 2721, 50DMA 2733, 100DMA 2660, 200DMA 2555

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Today's data is abound starting with Durable Goods, International Trade, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, Case-Shiller Home Price Index and FHFA House Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 10:00AMEST, and lastly, Farm Prices at 3:00PMEST.  The technical side of the house had us base on the 10DMA and just below the intermediate minor level at 2727 along with the 20 and 50DMA's before knifing higher.  This general area becomes important at yesterday's highs with the generation of a new primary minor level which sellers can build a second opportunity to send the market much lower from should the 2730 area fail.  Rising support coming through the 2760 level will be the first clue whether sellers are gaining an upper hand in the next potential leg down.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the week of 19-25 February

The market managed to bounce back from the lows registered on the previous Friday and last week saw only green daily candles painting. It reached now a bit higher than the 61,8% retrace of the entire decline from ATH, which is quite an achievement considering how vicious the drop was.

The weekly cycles have shown a warning for the bears, by having LRE (lower risk entries) for longs at the lows from 2 weeks ago. ES even triggered a 2nd consecutive LRE at the higher low from last week. Big picture is still unchanged on this time frame, with the up impulses still established, but this correction was big enough that it could trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support at the lows.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show a more zoomed-in picture of the decline and subsequent bounce. They were also showing LREs for longs, albeit a bit early. More importantly they triggered bullish retraces (BR) supports on both ES and YM. The market bounced strongly from there and basically a corresponding END could trigger any time, which doesn't mean it cannot trigger much higher from here.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 2nd week of February

Finally the market stopped the relentless up move and had a rather panicky turn. A drop of more than 100 SPX points in one week is definitely something that draws attention, but it was not only that. The market character seems to have changed also, as the market sliced through supports like they were not even there. This is definitely the first sign of the bear in quite a long time.
The weekly cycles, show just how overextended the market was until last week. The nested up impulse traveled more than 600 points and more than 1 year without any correction big enough to qualify for a bullish retrace (BR). That is rather unusual both in terms of both price and time.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show the same story as the weekly, although the last up impulses started only in October 2017. But they also traveled a whooping 400 points without any retrace. This correction looks as the first serious one and we already have a lower risk entry (LRE) for longs at Friday's lows, which doesn't mean it's over, but the next low might be greeted with a new one, which would have to be taken seriously.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 11, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: n/a

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2742, 10DMA 2716,  20DMA 2696, 50DMA 2640, 100DMA 2574, 200DMA 2495

These are key Fib Levels:  2756, 2741, 2736

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, January 10,  2017

Today's data consists of Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:00PMEST.  The technical picture has us up against declining resistance after cleanly bouncing off the 5DEMA as momentum players stepped back into the fray.  Given the current overnight price action we are currently marginally above the declining support but it is premature to read into that too much because price can do a lot of things between now and the opening bell.  Until a close below the 5DEMA buyers still have a firm grasp on overall market direction, and a break of the declining resistance would give more validity to that fact remaining valid.  The 2725 to 2530 zone will still be a solid area of defense for buyers should the sellers be able to push price down even further.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – January 8, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 2765

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2709, 10DMA 2696,  20DMA 2681, 50DMA 2629, 100DMA 2565, 200DMA 2489

These are key Fib Levels:  2732

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, January 8,  2017

Data is virtually nonexistent today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index release at 12:30PMEST.  Friday's price action extended us out over broadening resistance and well above the 5DEMA which should lead to some consolidation in the near term.  Seeing what kind of reaction takes place on a retest of the now potential rising support will be important.  A failure from this level hints that a run back at the lower bound is highly probable and a quality fifty point swing at this stage back to the 2690's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – December 29, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:00AMEST, 3:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2682, 10DMA 2677,  20DMA 2659, 50DMA 2612, 100DMA 2550, 200DMA 2479

These are key Fib Levels:  2699, 2673, 2662

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, December 29,  2017

With what appears to be the red MSP tracking overall we should see an open at or near the overnight highs with weakness to follow, but ultimately recovering by end of day.  The only data for today consists of the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture is going to have us gapping up over declining resistance in a now completed compression pattern.  Typically price produces a quick thrust out of the pattern which can reverse quite dramatically.  It will be important to mind the backtest of this level for basing.  Good luck today and have a great new year.

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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