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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for first Week of November

The market moved mostly sideways last week, with a slight upward tilt. But even so, it managed to make a new ATH on Wednesday and finished the week very close to that. This is consistent with out assumption that these are sequences of 4-5 waves, from an EWT perspective, which would mean that it is a terminal pattern. No sign of a top just yet, but any impulsive decline should be viewed as a possible start of a bigger correction, so we reiterate our recommendation that bulls should avoid becoming complacent here.
No change in the weekly cycles. Up impulses continue to extend with no unwind in sight.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet, however we do have directionality coming close to the minimum level. That is not bullish, unless the price action manages to push this back up.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14 – 18 Nov

What a week! It’s hard to keep the exclamations away in a week that saw an intra-day drop of more than ES 100 points to reach a limit down suspension and then a full reversal to come back, open the cash session only slightly in the red and keep rallying to close the day green. It was a Brexit type event, except it was faster. After Brexit we had a big drop, a dead-cat bounce and then the next day the markets made a new low. Now we never got that. Market bottomed in the overnight and then never looked back. People who were short in cash instruments must’ve had a really bad day, seeing the market 100+ ES points down and then opening nearly flat. Which proves once again that a large part of the action has moved outside the regular trading hours. The mcm tools caught the bottom quite nicely, signaling the exact low with a sell X Xtick on v-tick tools and then despite what looked like (and was) a huge bounce, it never triggered a buy Xtreme until the RTH started.
But as always the big question is what now. The weekly cycles put in a very large candle, with a LRE (lower risk entry) for longs at the bottom of it. Both ES and YM spiked below support, but recovered it and we are now looking for resistances to trigger higher. Once that happens, that would be a strong sign that another correction is coming. ES is still in an up impulse which would likely be over once an END resistance triggers. So reaction in the opposite direction could be strong.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

Zooming in to the daily cycles, these also spiked below supports and then recovered them strongly. So we have the the same expectation as for the weekly - watching for a resistance level to trigger. We did get some LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts, however the mcm-MA just recently changed bearish (red color) and we can see from such past events that in this case, the LREs are not very reliable. The directionality tool is moving upward and has been doing so for a while, actually since before the “Trump-win” Brexit like event. It will be important to see when it peaks and starts moving down.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles both    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21 – 25 Nov

Compared to the election week Brexit type event, last week saw things calming down. Although the intra-day swings in ES were 20+ points in the first 2 trading days and then 15 points in the last 3, that felt like no volatility at all. The market managed to continue to grind higher although the high from the election week was barely overtaken by 5 points.
Considering the absence of major swings, it is no wonder that the weekly cycles saw no major developments. The directionality tool finally bounced from it’s minimum level confirming the ongoing bounce. As previously stated, the cycles now need resistances to come up which would be a strong signal that the bounce is coming to an end. Of course, to anticipate where these might trigger we have to look at the shorter timeframe cycles.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

Zooming in to the daily cycles, these also spiked below supports and then recovered them strongly. So we have the the same expectation as for the weekly - watching for a resistance level to trigger. We did get some LRE (lower risk entries) for shorts, however the mcm-MA just recently changed bearish (red color) and we can see from such past events that in this case, the LREs are not very reliable. The directionality tool is moving upward and has been doing so for a while, actually since before the “Trump-win” Brexit like event. It will be important to see when it peaks and starts moving down.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles show    
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mcm Weekly Market Update For Week 37

The past week started just as brutal as the previous one ended. After making a new low on Monday in the overnight session, the market rallied 50+ points from that low. Luckily the mcm tools nailed that low and warned of the bounce beforehand. If you didn't have a chance to read the article detailing how that happened, you can find it here: http://mcm-ct.com/blog/anatomy-of-a-tradable-bottom/  While a valiant attempt was made to recoup some of the previous weeks losses early on this week, ultimately they failed with the NYSE closing roughly 0.75% lower than the previous weeks close.

Monday's action was the highlight of the week, the rest of the trading days being more choppy, with a lot of back and forth typical for sideways action.

The weekly cycles show that the back-test of the 2105 break-out level is ongoing. Market bounced from there, but it's too early to call for a successful back-test and sound the all clear for the bulls. The action in YM is also a warning sign, the price sliced directly through the break-out level and is currently in a direct overlap. The action in the next 1-2 weeks appears decisive for a resolution of the back-test and 2105 is still a very important level and worth keeping in mind.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles provided an excellent signal last week also. Namely, Monday's rally stopped almost exactly at the previously broken support sitting at 2154.5. The market retreated from there and then chopped around inconclusively. So it appears that we have what looks like 2 successful back-tests. One on the upside (on the weekly) and one on the downside (on the daily). The resolution of one or the other will paint the medium term picture. In the meantime the 2 levels are very important and critical to keep an eye on (2105 and 2154.5).

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

The preferred path outlined in last weeks update on the NYSE tracked exceptionally well despite the massive volatility we found early on in the week.  Currently we are at a crossroads as to whether we'll continue down on the path to 'or 2' or stage a rally from this general vicinity to cyan 3/C/5.  In Elliott Wave there are some requirements that must be observed for the validity of a Ending Diagonal (Technical Analysis rising/declining wedge) structure.  The first which was satisfied with this weeks price action with the overlap of the first and fourth waves.  The second is that the fourth wave cannot be longer than the second wave.  This second criteria is of great importance in this instance as it will serve as an early warning that price will have a greater probability to head to much lower levels if that criteria is broken.  This week is likely to be an important one with regards to which outcome becomes the most probable.  Trade safe.

NYA

NYA

 

 

 

 

Anatomy of a Tradable Bottom

The decline from Friday 9/9 was brutal. After months of range trading to get a 50+ points decline in a single day can be traumatizing, especially if caught wrong-footed playing the long side. In fact it can be so traumatizing that it is hard to even consider longs immediately after that. But the very next trading day, after continuing the decline for another 10-15 points (probably to shake out the last remaining longs and draw in some more shorts), the market proceeded to rally 50+ points from the ES low in the overnight. It is very hard to keep the objectivity when faced with this type of volatility, but one thing the mcm tools definitely have is the fact that they are objective. They are based on real data and when they trigger a signal, that signal is objective. And when signals align... Well, wonderful things tend to happen. The mcm tools signaled the 2100 ES overnight low from 9/12 as a VERY important level with significant support and, as a result, a high probability long.

And here is why.

First off the virtual tick tools signaled the 2100 level as very important. At point 1, around 3:30am it signaled a tiny capitulation bar (yellow bar on chart) and also a selling Xtreme (or sell X, which means there was an extreme selling effort in which all willing sellers have sold). At point 2, around 4:30am, it triggered another sell Xtreme with an Xtick (a sort of super sell Xtreme, to put it in simple terms), which came at the same level of 2100. At point 3, around 7:30am, the market tested once more the sell X and held. At point 4, around 8:30am, the tools signaled a buy X Xtick, with a capitulation bar (red bar), which were broken above. Ever since that break-out, which was held, the market rallied and never looked back.

V-tick tools

V-tick tools

Reinforcing the signal of the V-tick tools, were several cycles which were showing support at the exact same 2100 level.

First off the 1 and 2.5min cycles. For easier reference I kept the time points from the v-tick tools (1= 3:30am, 2=4:30am, 3=7:30am, 4=8:30am). 2.5min had support at points 1 and 2, at point 3 it was in a normal oscillation wave, while at point 4 it also broke out above resistance and started an impulsive wave up. 1min is too fast and the 1 and 2 time windows are not shown. But at point 3 we can see that it also had support, while at point 4 it also broke into an up impulse by breaking above resistance.

1&2.5min Cycles

1&2.5min Cycles

Continuing the story is the 5&15min cycle. At point 1, the 5min cycle had a 3rd END support. That means it was marking the complete unwind of a previous impulse down and likely to trigger a bigger reaction in the opposite direction. At point 2, it held the 2nd test of that level. At point 3 it had a new resistance, but at the same 2100 price level. At point 4 it also broke into an up impulse. The 15min cycles shows pretty much the same story. At point 2, it triggered an END support (marking the unwind of the previous down impulse), then at point 3 it held that level, while at point 4 it broke out into an up impulse as well.

5&15min Cycles

5&15min Cycles

Next are the RSI cycles. Same story again. 3rd END support at 2100 at point 1. New support which held at point 2 and 3. Break-out above resistance at point 4 and start of impulsive wave up. An additional signal was the fact that the CCI (the red line at the bottom of the chart) was diverging at points 1, 2 and 3. Market made a new low at point 1 and tested that level at points 2 and 3, but CCI was going up.

RSI Cycles

RSI Cycles

Following are the Tick Tools. These generate signals only during the day session, while V-tick generate also during the overnight. Right off the open, the tools generated a sell X with a 98% Xtick which was never contested and market proceeded to rally directly from there. No surprise, since 2110 was previous resistance broken above on several cycles and a buyX Xtick on v-tick tools. After rallying from 2110, the market met a buy X at 2125, but broke above and continued to move higher, with the bullishness confirmed.

Tick Tools

Tick Tools

Based on the confluence of signals, 2101 ES was called as a high probability trade in real time in the Expert Lounge here at mcm. The trade was never in danger of being stopped out and once the break-outs were confirmed on several cycles (first at 2104, then 2110, then 2114, then 2125), there was no real reason to exit before netting 30 to 50 points, depending on the exit strategy.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –September 12, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 2:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2158,  50DMA 2163, 100DMA 2121

These are key Fib Levels:  2127, 2139

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2131(intermediate minor), 2126(primary major), 2115(intermediate major)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, September 12, 2016:

The market continued its waterfall in the overnight session but with the substantial bounce this morning it looks to recoup a good deal of the earlier losses.  Cyan seems to be the odds on favorite at present with the early morning strength, but keep an eye on the gap and tick tools to see what makes sense at the open of regular trading hours and the coinciding timing window.  Price action will be the primary focus as there are no economic releases to speak of, but there are a few Fed heads to speak.

MSP

MSP

How price behaves around the primary major level will be important to note because it will give clues to what kind of price action we should expect going forward.  A solid rebound from that area will likely produce a more pronounced bounce, but an overshoot to the downside should be taken as a warning that areas below that level will want to be tested.

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

As noted on the historical extremes chart last week during banter in the expert lounge, there was a substantial void between newly formed extremes and the existing.  As soon as selling began, this gap turned into a massive vacuum and traversed the gap very quickly.  Now that we've reached clusters of historical extremes again it is most probable that price will become choppy again.  Keep a close eye on the tools and timing into market open to get an idea of what is in store for the session.  Good luck today!

Historical Extremes

Historical Extremes

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 15 – 19 Feb

Executive Summary:
Main Trend (weekly): neutral
Intermediate Trend (daily): neutral/down
- (new) Short-Term Trend (480&288min): neutral
- Very Short-Term Trend (60min&135min): up

Details:
As mentioned in the previous newsletters, the weekly cycles are still just oscillating, with support having triggered at 1804 ES and 15364 YM. As anyone familiar with our newsletter figured out by now, the weekly cycles do not impulse very often. However, when they do, it’s a big deal. That being said the market was close to starting an impulse down in the past week, as the market visited the support level again. It bounced for now, but going forward it’s critical to watch if the support will hold (at least until a resistance level is triggered).

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cyclesYM is in a confirmed down impulse while ES also moved below its support level and could confirm the impulse down soon (by having the MA move also below the support level) if the market doesn’t continue to bounce. If the market continues up, the 1.892.25 level is still the big line in the sand for ES, while for YM the trigger of a bearish retrace (BR) resistance would be important. If the market turns down a confirmation of the down impulse would be important on ES and although no formal support (in the form of a cyan line) can trigger, the dotted lines are important historical levels. Also worth mentioning is that the 2 LREs (lower risk entries) for shorts which triggered on YM (highlighted on the chart) worked very nicely, since the market retreated quite substantially from there.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

An important addition was made to the mcm tools in the past week, with the streaming of the new 480 and 288min cycles. These had very clean signals and going forward will replace the 60 and 135min cycles in our weekly newsletter (since the 60 and 135min are faster cycles and change more often during a week’s time). This week, however, both will be included.

Both 480 and 288min cycles broke into down impulses at the beginning of January. And as it can be seen in the highlighted zone at point 1, the 288min had a classic full unwind of the down cycle with a 3rd END which was only briefly spiked below with 1 bar, that was also a capitulation bar. The 480min behaved a bit differently. As shown at point 2, while 288 was finishing the unwind of the down impulse, the 480 hadn’t began it yet (although it also had a capitulation bar at that low). After that point, the 288min started to oscillate, while the 480min started to unwind the down impulse and finally triggered a 3rd END at 1843.5 . At point 3 we see that although 480min cycle was hinting at a possible nested impulse down, the 288min triggered a very clean support which held and the market bounced nicely from there. At the moment, it is important to be on the look-out for a resistance level which could trigger on 288min and is not unreasonable to expect it to trigger on 480min too once the market turns back down (either from here or slightly higher). Also important to mention is that 288min had a LRE (lower risk entry) for shorts trigger at the last bar. Although this could be spiked slightly, it is a warning for longs.

480&288min Cycles

480&288min Cycles

The 60 and 135min cycles fully showed the strong whipsaws of the market. After impulsing up, both started impulses down. 60min fully unwinded the impulse down (with a 3rd END) and then started a new one, but which was later reversed and it is currently in an up impulse. The 135min also started a nested impulse down after having a bearish retrace (BR) and an END of it’s initial down impulse by breaking below that END. However that nest was also reversed and after triggering a resistance level above, the price broke above and also 135min is impulsing up. Going forward it would be important to see if these impulses will unwind in a regular fashion (with BR and ENDs) or will be reversed. The normal expectation is for a regular unwind, but the market has whipsawed resistances and supports a lot lately, so it wouldn’t be surprising if also these impulses are reversed.

60&135min Cycles

60&135min Cycles

RSI Cycle Chart with mcm-CCI Advanced

Full Dynamic Range RSI Cycles Explained

The Full Dynamic Range RSI Cycles are a proprietary product developed by MCM which measures the RSI without incorporating a time component. It is fully price dependent and it moves with 6 tick range bars, being possible that one bar is a 1min bar or a 10min bar or any time frame in between.
The RSI Cycles point out, first of all, the cycle movements. For the basic info on cycles, please read the following article: http://mcm-ct.com/blog/weekly-charts-explained/

Apart from following the Cycle movement, the RSI Cycles contain a few more interesting tools. Below is a zoomed-in chart of the RSI Cycles which points these out.
First, at the bottom of the chart there is the directionality tool (point 1). At point 2 you can see the arrows pointing at the overbought (dark red) and oversold ranges (light cyan). These are calculated levels at which the market participants would perceive the price as being too high or too low, meaning oversold or overbought condition, at any particular time. These work and move similarly to the Bollinger bands and when the price touches either, the bars will appear highlighted - oversold condition with cyan color (point 3) and overbought with red color (point 4). As it can be seen, an oversold or overbought bar does not mean that the market will stop and reverse immediately and the condition can persist for a while, however it is an indication that the market is perceived as being in an extreme situation and usually this is corrected, either through a reversal or a side-ways movement. As it can be seen in the example, the market moved from oversold to overbought very quickly and finally the overbought condition resolved lower.
At point 5 there is an example of how the different signals are reinforcing each other. The market was in an overbought condition immediately after breaking above the resistance (magenta line) which meant that the up impulse generated had low odds of turning into a true impulse. Additionally the directionality tool reversed from the highs and went at the lower line and stayed there. The impulse up was reversed quite quickly afterwards and the RSI Cycles oscillated for a while, until point 6 when it broke into a down impulse.
The cyan line which moves between the 2 ranges is the mcm-Moving Average (MA). An impulse is confirmed only after the mcm-MA moves above (or below) the break-out level - we can see it confirmed the up impulse at point 5 by breaking above resistance and also at point 6 by breaking below support.

RSI_Cycles_1 in post

RSI Cycles - zoom-in example

An important addition to the RSI Cycles has been done this week, through the introduction of the mcm-CCI line (at the bottom, below the directionality tool). That is a proprietary tool which shows the character of the market - bullish or bearish. It moves between +300 and -400, with 0 being the dividing line. When the mcm-CCI is below 0, the character of the market is bearish. When it is above 0 - it is bullish. Additionally the color of the line shows how strong that inclination is - the brighter the green the more bullish, the darker the red - more bearish. There are several ways in which the mcm-CCI can be used, apart from showing the character of the market in any given time. These are the following:

  1. When the mcm-CCI is testing 0 - that is a significant event and is usually followed by a strong reaction. For example if it comes from a negative value and breaks above 0, that is a warning that the tides are changing and more bullishness is coming.
  2. When the mcm-CCI is testing a round number (+100, +200, -100 etc). Failing at one of these numbers usually triggers a strong reaction, as is breaking one (not as significant as 0 though)
  3. When mcm-CCI is approaching an extreme level - either close to +300 or to -400. That is a sign that the market is at an extreme and a reversal is not far away. When the mcm-CCI is close to +300 and then heads lower, the confirmation that a reversal happened usually comes if it then breaks below +100, so one does not need to wait for 0 to break (usually that will happen as well, but breaking below +100 is confirmation).
  4. When the mcm-CCI is diverging from price. For example price is making lower lows, but mcm-CCI is making higher lows. That is a sign that a reversal is near. The bigger the divergence, the stronger the signal. A difference in mcm-CCI of more than 50 points would be considered a strong divergence.

Below, there is one example which illustrates how powerful this tool is, especially when viewed in the context of the other RSI tools.

In the chart below we can see that the market never changed its bearish character, not even after the big reversal from oversold (around 1925) to overbought (around 1945). At point 1, at the highs we can see that when the market was trying to break into the up impulse, the mcm-CCI was testing the 0 level. And it failed. That failure combined with the overbought condition of RSI Cycles bars immediately after the up impulse was attempted and the directionality tool reversing from top to bottom were very strong signals that the impulse up would fail. Which is exactly what happened at point 2, when the price went below the break-out level and a support level (cyan) was generated. After that the market oscillated for a while, but the weak character was shown not only by mcm-CCI, but also by the fact that the support levels were broken, while the resistance levels were respected. Finally at point 3, the market broke into a down impulse, confirmed by the mcm-CCI which went lower and the directionality tool. At point 4, a divergence between the mcm-CCI and the market price started. While the market made lower lows, the mcm-CCI made a low slightly below -300 and then started to move up, making higher lows. The fact that the down impulse is unwinding (had a bearish retrace - BR - and an END) at the same time, means that the trend is likely changing and a bounce is expected. The down impulse will likely need a 2nd or even a 3rd END to completely unwind, but a reversal is expected nonetheless.

RSI Cycle Chart with mcm-CCI Advanced

RSI Cycle Chart with mcm-CCI Advanced

Yellen - Why Is It Not Working?

FED Speak, FED Hike, FED Squawk – Some Disccusion

Yesterday we posted these comments regarding the FED:

Another anecdotal issue is that the FED is due to report their unbelievably tortured analysis and process geared to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points. However, at this point the FED credibility is pretty tattered and IF they raise interest rates they will be viewed as non-data dependent to the contrary of their propaganda. If they do not raise interest rates they will be show that the verity of their analysis and policies is likely sorely lacking. In either case, the best the FED can do is damage their credibility or damage it more. Not particularly wonderful outcomes and for the markets this could imply that no matter what the FED does will be received negatively.

Yellen - Why Is It Not Working?

Yellen?

It is worth noting that if things get too challenging in the markets, the Fed may decide not only "no hike" but QE and effectively "rate cut". This woul be data driven of course and all in the span of less than 2 weeks of data. The question is would any new QE solve the problem? While there is no reason to doubt that a rally on some QE announcement would occur, the problem is that we are facing liquidations of malinvestments. As in 2010, after the initial rally in equities, QE funds and liquidity sought an avenue for allocation - the chosen allocation was not previous dubious products - and did not immediately go into equities or bonds - it went into commodities.  This caused dislocation in the commodities markets with many commodities rising hundreds of percent in a very short time - which in turn caused the "Arab Spring" (which was no "spring" but rather a revolt by starving citizens) as many poor and middle-class Middle Eastern people were unable to afford necessities of rice and other foods. They were forced to choose between buying food or paying rent. Similarly, were sitting in the situation in which junk bonds need to be liquidated and QE liquidity would not be allocated easily to junk at this time. Therefore, the only option for the Fed, which this analyst feels would further damage their credibility, would be for the Fed to directly purchase declining assets and junk bonds. Certainly, the FED can purchase junk bonds and represent them on a portfolio at par as they have done with many of the bankrupt entity debt that that they purchased in 2008 and 2009 (Maiden Lane III Portfolio) - but this does not inspire confidence.

So, in summary, it appears that if damage becomes pronounced to the equity and debt markets now or int he future theFed may need to attempt to directly arrest it. However, their tools are not precise and not effective. Moreover, they would be seeing as hypocritical because how could they not see this coming, and, in fact, want to do a rate hike just before major damage to bond and equity markets would occur. Either way, the situation as it seems to this analyst, is a no-win outcome for the Fed, no matter what they do. The best probable scenario that likely exists is that the Fed just buys every asset that is going down and attempts to arrest decline by increasing the balance sheet further and also deteriorating its quality.

Is it really possible, that if these options are even on the table? And would they work or make a difference for more than a short time?

Inflection Points Expected This Week – As Market Operates In Its BEAR MARKET CYCLES

This weekend we will present a host of unique charts and a detailed discussion of market structure projection, which had a software issue related to the end of November timing for a low - which actually due to a rare condition forward translated erroneously skipping the correct mapping for the week so the 16th. We identified this early last week and updated members, as soon as it became clear that future vs. historical MSP was not agreeing. This bug/error has been fixed and will be discussed in a separate post. However, inflection points are expected imminently if not already in.

The cycle study shown in the large chart below (you will need to maximize or zoom into the chart to see the details) is a robust and proprietary analysis that we use in our proprietary trading systems. The objective of this study is to devine the direction and timing of market movement by backing out its natural oscillations - or waves. As can be seen in the chart below, the red and pale cyan studies at the bottom of this chart show the larger directional move in the markets. They show when a market is trending by magnetizing to the upper and lower bounds. This means the 100 and 0 levels. Persistent travel at these extreme bounds indicates a trending market as well as the direction of the trend. When markets attempt to change course, a period of questioning is required. These market questions show up as volatility or could be called CHOP. We are currently in a pronounced stretch of zero bound attention which usually occurs once a change direction has successfully occurred. These tools defined the change of direction in June and July this year from UP to DOWN and likely into a bear market. They could not have had better timing. The objective of these analyzes is non-latent and simple, we think that this has been accomplished in the chart we publish on this page.

Additionally, there is another condition occurring similarly to 2007. While it is not our objective to show systematic trading as an indicator. The RVS is an old and established trading system that has unique qualities currently potentially acting a bit like a larger-term indictor. RVS trades only with what it feels is the prevailing trend. During the last five years. While it has had many losing individual trade elements. It has scarcely had a losing model position since 2009 and its releases in 2010 and 2012. This means that every position, including all the entries required to build a position on an NET-BASIS, resulted in a profit this makes the system stable and persistent which is why we trust it and have not changed anything about it in years. Due to the characteristic of the system's trading only in what it perceives to be the prevailing market direction it believes most probable...and its ability to trade profitably and consistently through whipsaws that usually accompany changes in direction in the market, this system is now setting up a pattern almost identical to 2007. Within the cycle analysis, we are presently likely in initiating bear markets, similar to 2007. As such, RVS believed we were in a new bear market starting in July and profitably shorted (albeit small) the September and October bounces. The reaction of the markets since then has created the perception that the Bull-Is-Back. This can be seen via the many Elliott wave counts and technical analysis calling for new highs, dramatic or astronomical new highs. We believe that most of this analysis is founded in an emotional basis and lacking reliable or factual data.  This reaction the markets also has so far attempted to convince RVS that longs are the preferred trades. If the expected inflection points play out and the cycle directional trend analysis is accurate, this phase for RVS should become a similar whipsaw as in 2007 and regardless of if markets make new highs (as in 2007)  the system should soon revert to a preferred bias towards short risk.

RVS & Market Cycle Study

RVS & Market Cycle Study