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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 18, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2793, 10DMA 2768,  20DMA 2753, 50DMA 2740, 100DMA 2711, 200DMA 2682

These are key Fib Levels:   2821, 2790, 2783

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Yesterday buyers put the floor under price right where they needed to at the 5DEMA and intermediate minor level at 2790 which hints that momentum traders are still very much active in this move.  The only level remaining above the intermediate minor level at 2813 is the primary minor level which marks the all time high at 2872.  Given the size of the void between the two levels, sellers need to put a stop to this run immediately or risk a rather large breakaway.  The first target for them is going to be rising support and the primary minor level at 2803.  After that there is the 5DEMA and intermediate minor level in the lower 2790's to contend with before they would get some breathing room down to the next primary minor level, rising support and 10DMA in the 2770's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 6, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2722, 10DMA 2725,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2721, 100DMA 2705, 200DMA 2672

These are key Fib Levels:   2749, 2772, 2692, 2664

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, July 6, 2018

Happy Friday everyone, the only remaining data point for today is the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture while still a bit opaque is showing some signs of clarity with the buyers pushing through the primary minor level, the first declining resistance, and the 10DMA during yesterday's session.  We are currently sitting right at the next declining resistance and look set to open roughly flat this morning.  Sellers will need to hold this level and to keep everything together or risk triggering the inverted head and shoulders that targets the 2770's and the next primary minor level.  Ultimately buyers will need to clear the intermediate minor level at 2743 to trigger it and that will be their first target should sellers not be able to contain price below the declining resistance level we are currently at.  Good luck today and have a great weekend everyone!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 15, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2781, 10DMA 2767,  20DMA 2743, 50DMA 2699, 100DMA 2708, 200DMA 2654

These are key Fib Levels:   2822, 2783, 2766

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, June 15, 2018

Happy Friday everyone!  There is a respectable amount of data for this last trading session of the week.  We have Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical side of the house didn't not change at all from with respect to yesterday's price action.  Price remained snuggled up to the primary minor level at 2779 for the duration of the session while failing to break out over declining resistance.  Given the overnight price action, buyers have lost their grasp and sellers look to rule the day with a lower open while targeting yesterday's first stated objective of the intermediate minor level at 2766 along with the 10DMA.  That level will be the major key for buyers to defend or risk losing a substantial amount of ground in the levels void all the way down to rising support, 20DMA and intermediate minor level at 2743.  Buyers primary goal is to stabilize price at the 2766 intermediate minor level and build a base to try and reclaim the primary minor level at 2779 and break out over the declining resistance and 5DEMA in an attempt to put in a new primary and intermediate pivot high.  Good luck today and have a phenomenal weekend!

 

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 19, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2696, 10DMA 2670,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2725, 100DMA 2649, 200DMA 2546

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

An easy start to a shortened trading week with no data points to concern ourselves with.  Last weeks technical picture should put sellers on alert as we broke over the intermediate minor level at 2725, the 50DMA, and declining resistance.  It will be important for sellers shove this back under these levels as quickly as possible lest risk a buyers basing process.  Given the distance between intermediate minor levels a basing process has the potential to open up a quality upside move back into the lower 2800's where as a failure here has the exact opposite effect with the next lower primary minor level being in the mid 2600's.  Be mindful of the round number psychology and rising support at the 2700 level and good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the week of 19-25 February

The market managed to bounce back from the lows registered on the previous Friday and last week saw only green daily candles painting. It reached now a bit higher than the 61,8% retrace of the entire decline from ATH, which is quite an achievement considering how vicious the drop was.

The weekly cycles have shown a warning for the bears, by having LRE (lower risk entries) for longs at the lows from 2 weeks ago. ES even triggered a 2nd consecutive LRE at the higher low from last week. Big picture is still unchanged on this time frame, with the up impulses still established, but this correction was big enough that it could trigger a bullish retrace (BR) support at the lows.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show a more zoomed-in picture of the decline and subsequent bounce. They were also showing LREs for longs, albeit a bit early. More importantly they triggered bullish retraces (BR) supports on both ES and YM. The market bounced strongly from there and basically a corresponding END could trigger any time, which doesn't mean it cannot trigger much higher from here.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for 2nd week of February

Finally the market stopped the relentless up move and had a rather panicky turn. A drop of more than 100 SPX points in one week is definitely something that draws attention, but it was not only that. The market character seems to have changed also, as the market sliced through supports like they were not even there. This is definitely the first sign of the bear in quite a long time.
The weekly cycles, show just how overextended the market was until last week. The nested up impulse traveled more than 600 points and more than 1 year without any correction big enough to qualify for a bullish retrace (BR). That is rather unusual both in terms of both price and time.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show the same story as the weekly, although the last up impulses started only in October 2017. But they also traveled a whooping 400 points without any retrace. This correction looks as the first serious one and we already have a lower risk entry (LRE) for longs at Friday's lows, which doesn't mean it's over, but the next low might be greeted with a new one, which would have to be taken seriously.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 21-25 August

Last week was very spectacular and continued with even higher volatility than 2 weeks ago. After gaping up and moving higher into Wednesday, Thursday was again a bad omen for the markets (just like 2 weeks ago) and saw a big 30+ points decline in a single day. The market did break the low from 2 weeks ago, which means that something (i.e.an impulse wave) did finish at the ATH, despite it’s strange shape. The retrace of the first move lower from the ATH was quite big (more than 70%) and so far this looks like only 3 waves from there, so we are still in no position to scream “the top is in”. The action was certainly very bearish with the market apparently restarting to take the stairs up and the elevator down, as 3 days of slow up action were reversed in a single day, which also saw the previous weeks’ lows taken out. So it’s worth noting this change in character. From an EWT stand point there are too many options on the table right now to make a clear call. If the market stops here or a bit lower (2410-2420 is important support), then it could be just an a-b-c down, with new ATH to follow. If this is indeed the start of something more bearish, then this wave should continue significantly lower. Monday’s action looks to be key for the intermediate trend.
On the weekly cycles, ES is testing the mcm-MA directly, so bulls may try to defend this level again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles also are directly on the support levels. ES triggered support at the lows from 2 weeks ago and is now working on breaking below. While YM is back-testing the previously broken resistance level. Both indexes have consecutive LREs (lower risk entries) for longs.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 14-18 August

Last week saw volatility come back with a vengeance. A new ATH was reached on Tuesday with a spike-like move, but that was immediately sold off hard. SPX lost more than 50 points from that high to the low registered 2 days later. Friday ended inconclusively but very close to that low and still in, what appears to be, a crash channel. That was for sure the best feast the bears had in a while, but from an EWT stand-point it is hard to scream “the top is in”. Because the last wave into the ATH was very choppy and full of overlaps, being difficult to file that off as an impulse. Which means the B wave (into the new ATH) option we were mentioning last week is still alive and well and that does not bode well for bears. If that is indeed what we are dealing with, after this (presumed C) wave is done a new thrust to the highs will follow. Of course, strange impulse waves have been known to happen, so I would not bet the farm we’ll make new highs, but if the market stops in this general area I would keep this option in mind. The more the market continues lower, the less odds for the flat and more weight to the scenario the top is in for a while.
No change on the weekly cycles. ES is getting close to the mcm-MA again, so it would be interesting to see if it will provide support again.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke back below resistance, while YM is still above and just met the mcm-MA, which seems to provide support. The up impulse is confirmed on YM, but not on ES, which is an interesting divergence. We do have a fresh new LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on ES which is also pointing up (and in favor of the EWT flat scenario).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 May -2 June

Last week saw the market push towards new highs. There was nothing bearish about the action, quite the opposite in fact, the market being able to push past resistances and into new ATHs. From an EWT stand-point the picture is becoming increasingly complicated. The more complex correction is still possible, albeit not favourite anymore. For this to happen the market would need to turn quite soon and avoid pushing significantly higher from here. The most obvious bullish scenario is for a nested wave up from the 2320 low, which would need the market to head higher in a steep manner (continuing the action of last week)

Weekly cycles are unchanged, with directionality still at the lowest level despite the bounce.  Once that moves, it would be a confirmation that the up move is really bullish.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we saw a support level trigger also on ES (following YM). The up impulses are continuing to unwind and the next resistance levels will be very important to watch for reaction, especially since it will be a 3rd END on ES, marking the completion of the impulse.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 22-26 of May

Last week saw the return of volatility to the market. After 2 days of consecutive new ATHs on Mon-Tue, the market saw a big down gap on Wed, which finished more than 40 points lower than the previous close. Next day we got a lower low, followed by a rebound which continued on Friday. Despite the more exciting action, we are still in the 2320-2400 chop zone, so the market is keeping its options open. From an EWT stand-point the more complex correction (started at the ATH from March 1st) scenario is gaining more weight because of the side-ways action. This would mean a flat is in the works, with wave A at the 2320 low and B either done at the recent ATH or needing a new minor high to finish. Then wave C down should follow with new lows (below 2320). Because of the overlap of 2370, the bullish scenario now became very bullish, because the only option still on the table is for a nested wave up (two series of 1-2 waves). This scenario is lower odds, though, at least at the moment because of the side-ways action.

Weekly cycles are unchanged, but directionality made it to the lowest level. That is not a bullish sign.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles held the test of resistances and moved lower and triggered some bullish signals at the lows. ES had 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for longs, while YM triggered a new support level. Those pointed up, but unless ES also triggers a new support level, it is still expected for the previous resistance to hold.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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