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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 20, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2902, 10DMA 2891,  20DMA 2890, 50DMA 2851, 100DMA 2790, 200DMA 2747

These are key Fib Levels: 2929, 2855

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 20, 2018

With Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey behind us, the remaining data points for this session consist of Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators at 10:00AMEST and the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  Current price action is markedly positive and we are set to open at, or above the all time highs.  Buyers will be looking to make a run at broadening resistance which is currently cutting through the 2920's and round number psychology prevails over the all time highs.  Sellers, should they be able to slow this rally, will first be targeting the intermediate minor level at 2910 and then rising support and 10 and 20DMA's in the lower 2890's.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 30, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2887, 10DMA 2871,  20DMA 2855, 50DMA 2708, 100DMA 2758, 200DMA 2726

These are key Fib Levels: 2929, 2859, 2846

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, August 30, 2018

Data for today is light with the big ticket items coming in before market open with Jobless Claims and Personal Income and Outlays at 8:30AMEST followed by the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.  Buyers did exactly what they needed to yesterday after basing atop the broadening pattern and then shoving price higher into uncharted territory while tagging the upper bound of the trend channel.  With little else overhead other then the steep broadening resistance and round number psychology, this trend can continue much longer then what most would consider to be 'reasonable'.  Sellers brave enough to try and grab a rocket in hopes of a reentry to earth do have a reasonably decent downside prospect with the next lower primary minor level and primary pivot being all the way back at the 2873 level.  While a savory target, they will need to bust through both the 5DEMA, 10DMA, and rising support to achieve that.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – August 28, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2870, 10DMA 2855,  20DMA 2846, 50DMA 2703, 100DMA 2752, 200DMA 2723

These are key Fib Levels: 2929, 2850, 2840

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Data for the remainder of the day is centered around the 10:00AMEST hour with Consumer Confidence, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the State Street Investor Confidence Index.  Yesterday's session saw buyers come out in force and break out to a new closing all time high and above the upper bound of the broadening formation that we've been tracking over the past month.  This is a dangerous spot for sellers if they can't reverse this soon because it lends itself to a breakaway run that could tack on tons of S&P points in a very short time frame.  The only thing buyers have to contend with at this point is steep broadening resistance from the upper trend channel and round number psychology in the form of the 2900 level.  Sellers can put together a decent drop before finding any kind of real support as this run has extended us a good distance from any sort of technical support with the primary minor level back down at 2873 along with the 5DEMA and rising support.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 19, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2696, 10DMA 2670,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2725, 100DMA 2649, 200DMA 2546

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

An easy start to a shortened trading week with no data points to concern ourselves with.  Last weeks technical picture should put sellers on alert as we broke over the intermediate minor level at 2725, the 50DMA, and declining resistance.  It will be important for sellers shove this back under these levels as quickly as possible lest risk a buyers basing process.  Given the distance between intermediate minor levels a basing process has the potential to open up a quality upside move back into the lower 2800's where as a failure here has the exact opposite effect with the next lower primary minor level being in the mid 2600's.  Be mindful of the round number psychology and rising support at the 2700 level and good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 20, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2501, 10DMA 2488,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2265, 100DMA 2440, 200DMA 2378

These are key Fib Levels: 2509

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 20, 2017

 

With the FED press conference after the meeting announcement this afternoon, there isn't much to be expected from the market until then.  2491 and rising support is still there for sellers to aim for and nothing overhead with the exception of broadening resistance and round number psychology.  Data we have Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST, and Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30PMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 15, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2488, 10DMA 2477,  20DMA 2459, 50DMA 2260, 100DMA 2436, 200DMA 2373

These are key Fib Levels: 2497, 2486, 2478

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, September 15, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  With the half life of ICBM launches effect on the market now but an hour or so, we've managed to retrace virtually all of last nights drop.  Perhaps a strategically placed Economic point will have more of a reaction, as such, we have Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture remains virtually unchanged with nothing more than a successful backtest of the intermediate minor level at 2491 yesterday.  There is still roughly 15 points of fudge room before coming into rising support and all but round number psychology above the ATH.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

eMotional Volume Histogram – How to Use It

Members are certainly seeing the histograms updating on the bottom of the cycle charts - but for the most part just as certainly ignoring them. These bars contain unprecedented information if you are looking to pinpoint times that a higher degree of risk in one direction or another exists. Interestingly there are several setups which are emminently recognizable that help to understand when psychology is shifting on the short-term and even medium-term (via long-time frame cycle charts). The eMotional Volume bars are also helpful in determining whether a retest of inpulse cycle break is a high probability reversal or not. This is a subject for our upcoming webinar too.

eMotional Volume Histograms

eMotional Volume Histograms

Support and MSP for What appears to be a Pivotal Week Coming Up

With the obvious situation impacting the world of total disintegration of central bank cooperation - to expected effect, we now have the addition of extremely high pressure on Chinese investment firms and institutions to sell everything that is not glued down and that is NOT a Chinese asset. If they can not sell a Chinese asset or share without going to jail the next best thing is to apparently blow it up and also to sell non-domestic assets - such as US stocks, European Stocks and anything else that is not glued down that the Chinese officials will not arrest them for. If this capitulation is to continue things can get very messy indeed. But before we throw out the baby with the bath water, let's take a look at what the markets would be expected to do if the third transaction type for fund managers were not "BLOW IT UP".

DAX and Euro Stoxx are at inflection points and can start a large rally and by the looks of things, would potentially be very painful for shorts. Longs are already in pain and it seems they need to sell too just so the pain is shared more equitably. Funny how that is centrally planned. But in any case, there appear to be quite a lot of influences coming up that imply a convergence to the upside that by the looks of things could be swift. IF we can not get the hint of some traction to this structure, then it should be apparent that the brakes are not working and likely the ground is moving which could imply a "crash". Crashes are rare, even though this feels like a crash already, nonetheless, the urge to get emotionally involved in a crash is not usually a highly rewarding one and caution is warranted. It is common for us to stress that most money earned from trading is not on huge winning trades but on normal base hits. We have worked very hard to increase the odds on base hits and to be open to larger trades when they happen. We also have worked hard to developed tools and approaches to handle a crash or very powerful trend. However, it must be restated that smart and judicious trading is far more rewarding than big winners followed by a string of many losses of arbitrary size - usually larger than the large winners, though. This is why we can not overstate that the potential of this change in psychology in the markets will take more than a few days and the opportunity has not even started yet...patience and restraint are highly rewarded. Buying multimillion dollar jet planes before you've closed what appear to be gigantic winning trades is equally unrewarding. So, in all the lessons we can reinforce, patience, discipline, and clarity is key NOW.

Below are various charts that may help put some perspective on where the market is standing. On the Historical eTickTools Emotional Extremes - Support and Resistance Chart note, that one fo the objective is to show thin zones and also to show areas of congestion. Brighter or more intense colors indicate stronger influence, Light colors indicate previous resistances and darker colors are previous supports.

Historical eTickTools Emotional Extremes - Support and Resistance

Historical eTickTools Emotional Extremes - Support and Resistance

DAX Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

DAX Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Euro Stoxx 50 - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Euro Stoxx 50 - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Oil - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Oil - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

US Dollar - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

US Dollar - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Market Flux Capacitor in Overdrive – Crash Potential and Techniques to Trade One

Last week we posted a definitive warning that something was aberrant and dangerous in this post: Market consciousnesses running through a flux capacitor. MSP is suggesting a bounce to an early September week one peak. While this remains the highest probability given that DAX and Eurostoxx both show reversal windows on weekly MSP starting this week, these are unprecedented times and as the example in the referenced post states: The market not following its metronome or market structure is very similar to hitting the brake in an automobile with the reaction of accelerating rather than slowing...things are clearly aberrant for what could be a variety of reasons - all of which need to be taken very seriously. A car should slow with a depression fo the brake and similarly the market should slow and react when it reaches its market structure metronome let alone support as in the 2044 area mentioned extensively last week. All reasonable expectations argued for, at the least, a short few day pause or test there, the overrunning of the infection forces, similarly to the eTickTools concept, suggests that the professionals professional was getting run over. Either way I am quite sure that there are a lot of people wishing they traded aggressively to sell a dangerous setup and there are quite a lot more people who are frantic about having bought all the way down. The approach for mcm is, was and continues to be since our post about taking a trading break as opposed to getting blindsided by low probability and risky setups, that the highest probability trades are yet to come and occur in September. That is still the case, a bounce in week 1 of September will likely be at the least a high probability reversal point and a second one towards September 21st. In all of the trading systems we have authored, a characteristic of any market turn is the highest opportunity is NOT when the turn occurs and the breakdown appears but after - and that is our calm and considered assessment presently too. These systems rarely trade the actual turn but rather focus on harvesting the subsequent larger move. We feel that if traders approach this market attempting to harvest this move aggressively - especially without the proper tools, funds are likely to be depleted by the time the real tradable market reveals. For these reasons, we emphasized the danger to all and still advise a high degree of caution.

Meantime, the markets are in an intense state of acceleration with the brake pedal fully depressed (not to mention parking brake on) that we felt it important to share some thoughts and setups to trade a crashing market. When the vehicle just will not stop it can be the ground that is moving, and we would be remiss to NOT further examine this subject. So, to make things easier we added some features to the eTickTools analytics toolset and want to take the time to discuss out methods regarding our cycle oscillation toolset. We feel that refocusing on these tools can help to do exactly what they were designed to do, assist in retaining clarity and consistency in all market conditions but especially in powerful momentum markets such as explosive up or down crashes. The objective is to locate risk and rewards inflection points that retain a reasonable and definable risk reward with an understanding of the market framework and psychology. Additionally, the goal is to retain a significantly higher than normal probability.

Below are charts of the additions to eTickTools. Among them, we have sped up the chart streaming, added the historical extreme background support and resistance lines in such a way as to require a minimum amount of cpu as possible. Additionally, we wanted to emphasize the use of Accumulation Index to help determine what market psychology is being conveyed during a consolidation market behavior or near inflection points. Examples are below.

eTickTools Additions

eTickTools Additions

eTickTools Additions Detail

eTickTools Additions Detail

The cycle oscillation toolset are not technically a part of eTickTools, however, a lot of learning has come from them and some similar concepts apply which is why we added the mcm moving average to the eTickTools charts. We wanted to share and discuss a few details regarding using these tools especially during non-cash hours to help identify impulsive moves. The interesting thing about cyclical oscillations, even on short term charts is that they do not act as high-speed signals that need to chop you up...but when used properly they provide insight into market structures that help orient the mindset of the market - for example impulsive and cyclic/counter-trend oscillations. Below are charts that go into more detail.

Identifying Impulses Down

Identifying Impulses Down

Identifying Impulses Up

Identifying Impulses Up

Identifying Impulses Down Overview Chart

Identifying Impulses Down Overview Chart

10:30 AM High Attempt Failed…Bearish Market Structure Continues Tracking

For the record, one of the elements that we attempt and I believe achieve, is market analysis without preconceived bias. Last night pointed to a high on Wednesday daily market structure and also probabilities for one of the strongest momentum days of the week today - usually upward biased. This morning early, before in our expert lounge we lowered the probability of that potential dramatically. This was around 5:00 or 6:00 AM. When something substantive changes, this is one place that is not going to be embarrassed about making the determination promptly and also determining if "EDGE" is compromised. Therefore, the impact of a change in outcome for the market probabilities today for us was of very little impact. It has not been easy to develop this kind of discipline and capability. BUT it is one of the distinct advantages of NOT using indicators and instead using data, statistics and probabilities and combining this with real-time emotional tools such as e-Tick-Tools.

When strongly bullish market structure and probabilities get overrun, often time, market participants get trapped. So, the moves can be as strong in the opposite direction if these participants become disoriented or forced sellers or buyers as the case may be. Therefore, today was and is a potentially important day. It is also, YET ANOTHER good example of using bi-modal decisions to navigate without getting trapped in expectations, opinions or notions.

It was clear in the early morning update that market structure favoring a bullish outcome was no longer highest probability, due to the patterns from 10:00 pm to 3:00 AM. These was a shot at recovering, however, noting all the anecdotal contributors supporting weakness and the importance of performance at 10:30 AM, the market responded in highest probability fashion. Delivering on the BEAR Market MSP probabilities at a 90% correlation. Gap Tools delivered the fill that it anticipated, and that led straight into the 10:30 AM timing. While there, e-Tick-Tools called a capitulatory BUY EXTREME. Which translates to as buying exhaustion. This was NOT confirmed by Accumulation Index, which undermine today's upward movements by showing emotions and execution feedback consistent with selling psychology even at the highs.

This post is not about per se today's outcome, it is about the important to have the humility to adjust to the markets probabilities without hanging onto previous assumptions and expectations.  This afternoon 2:30 PM to 3:00 pm is important as we can consolidate there. Probabilities favor further selling from this consolidation into the close.  3:00 pm is timing, and one should be careful and aware at time windows.

Tick Tools Today  June 24, 2015

Tick Tools Today June 24, 2015