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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 19, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2898, 10DMA 2889,  20DMA 2887, 50DMA 2849, 100DMA 2787, 200DMA 2746

These are key Fib Levels: 2929, 2855

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Data for today's session consists of Housing Starts and Current Account at 8:30AMEST and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST.  Price attempted a break over resistance during yesterday's session but failed to follow through after hitting the intermediate minor level at 2910 and is currently set to open lower by a couple of points.  Bears still have the challenging task of attacking the 10 and 20DMA stack along with rising support if they have any hopes of getting something solid going.  Should buyers be able to rising support and the moving averages then another leg higher is a very high probability.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 18, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2894, 10DMA 2888,  20DMA 2885, 50DMA 2846, 100DMA 2785, 200DMA 2744

These are key Fib Levels: 2929, 2855

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, September 18, 2018

We have a couple items of interest this morning with the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and the Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.  Sellers couldn't quite push their way through the moving averages stack mentioned in last weeks update and as a result buyers have been able to recover a good chunk of yesterday's losses during the overnight session as we are currently set to open up at near term declining resistance around the 2895 zone.  The lack of an intermediate pivot marker at yesterday's lows gives sellers a reasonable opportunity to retrace what buyers have managed to produce in the overnight but they will need to defend the declining resistances in the 2990 to 2995 area and maintain price below the intermediate minor level at 2910 should the resistances get breached.  If they can sustain price below that and take out the rising support and moving average stack in the upper 2880's then that gives them a good probability run to the intermediate major level at 2865.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 26, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2815, 10DMA 2810,  20DMA 2776, 50DMA 2757, 100DMA 2717, 200DMA 2692

These are key Fib Levels:   2929, 2859, 2867, 2829, 2825

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, July 26, 2018

We have copious amounts of data today all centered on the 8:30AMEST hour with Durable Goods, International Trade in Goods, Jobless Claims, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories followed by the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST, and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 11:00AMEST.  The technical picture saw us push into the levels void yesterday after cleanly testing the 5DEMA and intermediate minor level at 2812.  As was mentioned in the previous updates this week, there is little resistance in this zone as a lack of levels and price has the ability to move freely and dramatically through it towards the primary minor level at the all time highs which yesterdays closing move demonstrated quite well.  The important test of today's session will be to see if sellers are able to shove price back down through the rising wedge that broke to the upside yesterday.  Any basing atop the upper bound of this structure should be a clear warning to sellers that this move has just begun and has the potential to last much longer than many would consider to be reasonable.  On the flip side of this, if sellers push price back down through the structures upper bound, there is a high probability that the primary minor level at 2802 and 10DMA will be tested at a minimum in a very short period of time.  This is a crucial point for both sides of the tape in the next few trading sessions.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 3, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2716, 10DMA 2733,  20DMA 2754, 50DMA 2718, 100DMA 2702, 200DMA 2670

These are key Fib Levels:   2733, 2742

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Data is light on the preholiday trading session with only Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST.  Yesterday buyers showed up exactly where they needed to at the 100DMA and 2700 level to build a base and make a run at the declining resistance array first level.  They have extended gains in the overnight and are currently set to open the market up on the primary minor level at 2733 and above declining resistance.  With an intermediate pivot in place down at 2690 and an inverted head and shoulders pattern formed between there and the primary minor level at 2744, a break above there has the potential to very constructive for buyers.  On the flip side, given there is a triple bottom at this point, should buyers fail to make a clean breakout in the coming sessions, it is a very high probability that the 200DMA will be tested at the very least, if not much lower.  Good luck today and see everyone on Thursday.

 

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 15, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2710, 10DMA 2680,  20DMA 2675, 50DMA 2678, 100DMA 2707, 200DMA 2622

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2774, 2759, 2637, 2587

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, May 15, 2018

We have a few data points of interest to start the day with Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and Business Inventories and Housing Market Index at 10:00AMEST.  We say some technical weakness yesterday after gapping up over the primary minor level at 2734.  Sellers will have their work cut out for them today with rising support coming in almost immediately around the 2725 level then the intermediate minor level and the 5DEMA and 100DMA that will come into play between 2720 and 2710.  Should buyers be able to get a foothold at any of the aforementioned levels the will be looking to target the symmetry level at 2758 at the very least and have a good probability of pushing it up through the levels void to challenge the 2767 intermediate minor level.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – March 7, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2706, 10DMA 2720,  20DMA 2699, 50DMA 2737, 100DMA 2670, 200DMA 2561

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2643, 2617, 2450

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2727(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, March 7, 2018

The overnight price action was a sellers delight with price dropping over 40 points in less than an hours time.  The implications on the cash chart are going to have us breaking the rising support after multiple failed attempts at the intermediate minor level at 2727.  We are currently set to open between the 5DEMA and the 20DMA and have a intermediate minor level just underneath at 2695.  We'll need to look for some confirmation by way of an intermediate pivot marker upon open at yestarday's highs.  Should sellers be able to push price below rising support and the 100DMA at 2670 then a much more severe decline becomes a high probability.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 21, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2578, 10DMA 2582,  20DMA 2579, 50DMA 2549, 100DMA 2502, 200DMA 2442

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2597(intermediate minor) 2579 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 21, 2017

With only the cyan MSP marking a low at timing through the overnight there is potential a good potential for a reversal around mid day timing and weakness all the way through the afternoon session.  Economic data today consists of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

Yesterday we found rising support at the close and sustained trade on a retest of the moving averages which has let to the overnight follow through which looks set to open well over the declining resistance level.  Price action over this area will be important because a failure to maintain above the resistance has a good probability of retracing the entire rally and head towards the 50DMA.  The key word is 'failure' though.  Sustained trade above resistance should be considered basing for a new rally leg.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 2, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2420, 10DMA 2413,  20DMA 2400, 50DMA 2378, 100DMA 2354, 200DMA 2269

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2411, 2400

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, June 2, 2017.

Happy Friday everyone!  With current price action odds favor a weak to flat day via the white MSP.  Data is light today with only the Baker Hughes Rig Count remaining at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture took a turn in the favor of buyers yet again yesterday with a breakout over the broadening resistance which now resides in the 2425 area.  Basing on this area on a pullback is a clear warning that higher prices are coming and most likely in a runaway fashion.  On the flip side, a break of the rising support sets up a high probability of a retest of the next nearest intermediate minor level at 2410.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

mcm Market Update for Week 44

The action over the past week was decisively bearish. The market continued the downside movement started 2 weeks ago and declined in all 5 trading sessions reaching a 70 points decline in 2 weeks and more than 100 points lower vs. the August and early September peak. Continuing the bearish signs, the market broke decisively below the trend line connecting the last significant lows (the one from February and the one from June). But of course, the real question is: what now? Will the market continue lower or is a bounce in the cards?

Looking at the cycles, we can see the same bearish signs: the weekly support level on ES was broken, despite it having higher odds of holding. YM also broke its support, albeit only marginally (shown on chart). The directionality tool did provide a nice warning that the bounce after the initial decline was not going to hold, by continuing to move lower throughout it. It is currently at the minimum value and if a more significant bounce is coming, it will start moving up. We also have a LRE (lower risk entry) for longs on YM and as we can see in the past (highlighted on chart) these have the potential to trigger a big bounce. A 2nd consecutive one triggering next week will definitely be something to watch for.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

As we were mentioning last week, the daily cycles were bearishly inclined and the market delivered just that. YM was in a confirmed impulse down and it had triggered a 2nd bearish retrace (BR) resistance level which normally needed a 2nd END support lower. The market moved decisively lower, so now we are on the look-out for a support level to trigger. ES also triggered (late) a resistance just above the previous support and then a new support lower, which was slightly broken. Going forward it will be important to see when a support level will trigger on YM. That would be a big warning that the decline is at least pausing for a while.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

Revisiting our potential Elliott Wave ending diagonal on the NYSE Composite from previous updates, it is very obvious that we've broken the rising wedge pattern and have begun to sell off.  This brings in a demarcation point where the diagonal structure becomes invalid because in a contracting ending diagonal, wave 2 must remain shorter than wave 4.  We've marked that level where that is no longer the case and at which point we can begin looking for much lower prices as the next viable structure would bottom in the 9600 to 9500 area.  Futures are markedly green at present so a challenge of the upper area of the declining wedging pattern is a relatively good probability at this point.  Good luck this week.

NYSE Composite

NYSE Composite

MCM Market update for week 43

Happy Halloween weekend everyone.  This weeks update is going to take a top down approach in an attempt to ground everything and get a good look at the forest and focus a little less on the individual trees that comprise it.  On our run up from the 2009 lows you can see that we've broken from the sustained uptrend at magenta which gave us our first substantial correction since the 2011 lows.  The vast majority of analysts are quick to declare a new trend is under way after a rally or decline begins simply as a function of near term price action.  This is a mistake.  Large trend moves take time to consolidate as expectations change among investors.  These periods last just as long as the trend periods if not longer.  At present, we are about half way through such a period as we traverse across the blue channel from the upper bound to the lower.  Now while the 400 point range from 2200 to 1800 seems massive on an intraday basis, it is relatively minor in the grand scheme of things.  The cyan cross sectional channel is important as we cut across the larger blue channel because it defines price zones.  Maintaining trade above the upper level lets you know that buyers conviction in future prospects of higher prices is strong.  A failure of the upper bound of this channel is a hint that conviction is likely in the process of waning and a larger move back through the previous consolidation zone is likely underway.  Since price has traversed this cyan channel area multiple times in the past it acts as a vacuum because all the levels but the most recent have been broken through and resistance to price change is weak.  With that being said, it is a reasonable assumption that any sustained trade below the upper bound has a high probability of price finding the lower bound in a relatively short period of time before making its next trending longer term decision.

SPXLT

S&P 500

Taking a look at the closer term picture via the cycles, we can see that the market has not decided yet which way it wants to go. The weekly cycles show supports triggered, which have a bounce as normal expectation, while the daily cycles show broken support on ES and a fresh resistance on YM, which point down. The triggered levels on both time frames are critical to watch therefore since whichever break first will likely indicate a bigger move.

The weekly show a change compared to the previous week. The supports which triggered on ES and YM were reset and are now triggered again. This is a very rare occurrence and it happens only when a level (support or resistance) is triggered and something changes at the end of that bar, before confirming, that makes it not confirm. This only appears when the charts are reloaded which is why it was not seen immediately. In any case, the currently triggered support levels do not change the picture. The only difference is that the support triggered by ES is higher and is a bullish retrace (BR), meaning the impulse up is still valid. Also, because it is close to the break-out level it has higher odds of holding, but the conclusion is the same: a bounce is the normal expectation.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

As mentioned, the daily cycles are showing exactly the opposite. ES broke it’s support level and although it didn’t break down and the impulse down wasn’t confirmed, it is a sign of weakness. YM is in a confirmed impulse down and it triggered a 2nd bearish retrace (BR) resistance level which normally would need a 2nd END support lower.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles