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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – July 9, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2730, 10DMA 2726,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2723, 100DMA 2706, 200DMA 2673

These are key Fib Levels:   2749, 2772, 2692, 2664

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, July 9, 2018

There are a couple of items later in the session of note with the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index at 12:30PMEST, and Consumer Credit at 3:00PMEST.  The technical breakout last week has led to a sizeable run for buyers and is nearing the completion target for the inverted head and shoulders pattern that built off the intermediate minor level at 2698.  We also have a new intermediate pivot marker which would indicate that some backing and filling will be coming in the near future, but ultimately this leg should see us reach the primary minor level at 2777.  There are a number of rising supports in play at this point which gives the sellers something to shoot for, but being too anxious to step in front of trending price is a fools errand so be patient and pick your spots carefully.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 5, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2720, 10DMA 2724,  20DMA 2716, 50DMA 2674, 100DMA 2710, 200DMA 2640

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2774, 2759, 2637, 2587

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Saturday, June 5, 2018

Data for today is confined to the front end of the session with the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, PMI Services Index at 9:45AMEST, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10:00AMEST.  Yesterday saw a gap over the primary minor level at 2733 and also above the primary pivot at 2743 ultimately extending marginally into the levels void and up to the psychological 2750 round number zone before pausing on the day to consolidate gains.  With little in the way of levels resistance buyers should have minimal issue pushing price up to the next intermediate minor level at 2766.  Sellers still have the benefit of having both in intermediate and Primary pivot marker present and would be looking for an initial target at rising support near 2740.  With successfully reclaiming that a run back down to the primary minor level and filling yesterday's gap opening around 2730 would be all but assured.  Below that area there is a large stack of moving averages an intermediate minor level and both rising and broadening support all in the 2720 for sellers to contend with.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 25, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2724, 10DMA 2723,  20DMA 2692, 50DMA 2674, 100DMA 2710, 200DMA 2631

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2774, 2759, 2637, 2587

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, May 25, 2018

Happy Friday everyone!  We have a few items of interest today, the most important of the group is Durable Goods Orders at 8:30AMEST followed by Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST and rounding out the data docket in the afternoon with the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  Price played a game of ping pong yesterday between primary and intermediate minor levels around 2730 and the 100DMA before ultimately closing out the day sitting atop the 5DEMA and 10DMA.  Overnight price action currently has us around the primary minor level at 2732 and the 8:30AMEST Durable Goods Order has the potential to set the stage for buyers today should it be a positive number and get us over the 2732 hump and into the massive levels void that runs all the way up to near 2770 and the next intermediate minor level.  Sellers still have what seems like an impenetrable rising target in the 100DMA if they are to get anything going for themselves in and around the 2710 level.  Everything between these two areas is just more of a consolidation pattern.  Good luck today and have a great weekend and an extended one for everyone in the U.S. with Monday being a holiday!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 11, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2692, 10DMA 2666,  20DMA 2669, 50DMA 2675, 100DMA 2706, 200DMA 2624

These are key Fib Levels:   2905, 2774, 2759, 2637, 2587

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2779(primary minor), 2765(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, May 11,  2018

We have a couple items of interest for the last trading day of the week with Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  Yesterday's open had us gap declining resistance from the all time high and open up on the 100DMA before extending gains further into the session.  Buyers have now cleared all daily moving average obstacles and only have an intermediate minor level to clear at 2730 before entering an extremely large void of levels all the way up to the 2780 region.  Symmetry for this leg of the move relative to the leg up from the primary pivot low (yellow -8.9) resides at 2759.  This would be the minimum expected target for the present move from a harmonic standpoint.  Sellers have a number of near term areas to target should they be able to gain some footing with the 100DMA at 2708 and rising support coming up through the lower 2700 to 2710 region.  After that is broadening support and the intermediate minor level at 2697.  Any basing in these areas should be considered the buyers attempt to regain control and make a run for the 2759 harmonic price target.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – February 19, 2018

Good morning everyone,

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2696, 10DMA 2670,  20DMA 2750, 50DMA 2725, 100DMA 2649, 200DMA 2546

These are key Fib Levels:   2792, 2742, 2521

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2871(primary minor), 2817(intermediate minor), 2651(primary minor), 2577(intermediate minor), 2563(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

An easy start to a shortened trading week with no data points to concern ourselves with.  Last weeks technical picture should put sellers on alert as we broke over the intermediate minor level at 2725, the 50DMA, and declining resistance.  It will be important for sellers shove this back under these levels as quickly as possible lest risk a buyers basing process.  Given the distance between intermediate minor levels a basing process has the potential to open up a quality upside move back into the lower 2800's where as a failure here has the exact opposite effect with the next lower primary minor level being in the mid 2600's.  Be mindful of the round number psychology and rising support at the 2700 level and good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 20, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2501, 10DMA 2488,  20DMA 2470, 50DMA 2265, 100DMA 2440, 200DMA 2378

These are key Fib Levels: 2509

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 20, 2017

 

With the FED press conference after the meeting announcement this afternoon, there isn't much to be expected from the market until then.  2491 and rising support is still there for sellers to aim for and nothing overhead with the exception of broadening resistance and round number psychology.  Data we have Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30AMEST, FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00PMEST, and Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30PMEST.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 18-22 September

The sideways action from two weeks ago was resolved last week in the same way we got used to in the last few years - up. Last week was certainly bullish, with 5 green daily candles and several new ATHs. Although the last 3 days saw the market only grinding up, the declines were very limited, so nothing to cheer on from the bear camp. From an EWT perspective, now that the market made new highs, the favorite is still the bull option, which looks like a nested move up from the low at 2417. Even if that will not turn into a nest and will prove to be only a bigger 3 waver, it still looks like it needs a bit more up. The bear option is that this turns out to be either the flat we were mentioning in last week’s newsletter or that this overlap is not a nest, but an ending diagonal. The latter will gain weight if the market heads down and overlaps 2480 before making 5 clear waves up off 2428.
No change on the weekly cycles. Directionality is still heading lower despite the upside from this week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are in an interesting place. ES broke above the resistance level and is close to confirming a new up impulse. That would be very bullish if it happens.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – September 15, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2488, 10DMA 2477,  20DMA 2459, 50DMA 2260, 100DMA 2436, 200DMA 2373

These are key Fib Levels: 2497, 2486, 2478

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, September 15, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  With the half life of ICBM launches effect on the market now but an hour or so, we've managed to retrace virtually all of last nights drop.  Perhaps a strategically placed Economic point will have more of a reaction, as such, we have Industrial Production at 9:15AMEST, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  The technical picture remains virtually unchanged with nothing more than a successful backtest of the intermediate minor level at 2491 yesterday.  There is still roughly 15 points of fudge room before coming into rising support and all but round number psychology above the ATH.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for the Week 13 – 17 Mar

The action seemed to change ever since the market hit the round numbers 2 weeks ago. The market made lower lows in 4 out of 5 trading days last week. Friday saw a bounce coming, but that bounce proved weak, ending with a cross type of daily candle (close equals the open, despite the intra-day swings. Usually points to a change of trend, or indecision).

The weekly cycles saw finally a clearer retrace and “dent” in the up move. The up impulses are still fully ongoing, so the picture is still bullish.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show more clear where the decline stopped. The mcm-MA managed to provide support yet again - it did so several times in the past, so at least for now, the picture is still bullish. No new signal, except the fact that the directionality tool moved down, being the first bearish sign in a while.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter for week 6-10 March

Last week was another one for the history books. The last 2 days of February seem uneventful in retrospect, although the market did make a new ATH on Monday before moving side-ways to lower afterwards. But March started with a bang. 15+ SPX points gap up and besting the 2400 level, which was almost 40 points higher than Tuesday’s close. Very impressive. However the round number proved to be not so lucky, as the next day we got an almost identically sized candle in the opposite direction. Friday saw the market making another low, before recovering to finish just above the close on Thursday.
The weekly cycles did not register any significant change as a result of this action. YM just confirmed the up impulse with the mcm-MA directly slicing the resistance level. ES is in an established up impulse. Interestingly the directionality tool is still at its maximum level, so that would provide a clue is the decline is more than a short-term correction, in case it moves lower.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are perfectly aligned with the weekly. Up impulses, directionality pegged at the highest level. They are likely to move before the weekly, which would be an early warning.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles
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