Below is the reconciliation of today's real-time calls. From top down on our Weekly, Daily and finally on the Intraday (shown below) with added data from Emotion, Flow and Gap...there were significant and obvious elements that simply eliminated the low probability outcomes.
One note, regarding probability related a Hindenburg Omen. As mentioned in the AM post on the subject, normal Hindenburg Omen's are unreliable and in fact rarely useful. However, as the name implies, there is a tremendous romantic attraction for people to short them...which has the direct effect - even in the rare case that they do work - of going against these traders initially. Given that we got a MCM Hindenburg Omen, the implications are much more bearish than normal, however, the nature of the setup is still in play because of the proximity to standard Hindenburg's, which implies that the lowest possible risk entry is to look for the squeeze that usually occurs and also that the market flow data seems to anecdotally support as well.