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Daily & Weekly Projection – Live versus Memorex – Bears Need to be Careful

Interestingly, many analysts are finally starting to look downwards. Last week many the same analysts were looking upwards. The issue with Elliot wave analysis is that it is so often missing a wave. One most often finds out a wave was not missing when their trading account is lower by a few percentage points. We would like to suggest, for those looking for insightful Elliot wave analysis that most often does not fall into the missing wave trap - check out pretzelcharts.com - some serious wave genius activity going on with Jason over there.

Below is a probability analysis that we have been posting, updated to today. No probabilities or plots have changed over the last weeks or in fact for months. We are now at the point where directional shifts are starting to turn. There may be some noise around the very short-term. However, risks start to skew upwards and have the capacity to be very stressful for bears if they want. This is a high-stress moment for traders, investors and bull/bears. However, the edge has to go to the bulls into early September based on probabilities. There is a pivotal shift that seems to take place around the 21st of September from which a 5 to 6-week straight decline has high probabilities. Either the week of September 5th is the high of a bounce attempt, or the week of September 21st is. This can be a lower high or a higher high for the bounce attempt if it materializes. There is a slight edge for this being a lower high for a bounce attempt for the US markets and a more pronounced high for EU market such as DAX and Eurostoxx.

It is easy to count downward Elliot-wave impulses, but it is healthiest to look to trade high-probabilities at the edges and to be very careful. In fact, we suggested taking some R/R time for the next week in the "Lounge" today and to await the high R/R potential that appears to be coming in early September. Psychological preparedness is a big deal. We were focused on booking short exposure today...however, more chop is a highly draining market construct that can damage psychological preparedness. The most important aspect of trading is NOT knowing when to trade - but when not to trade. This is something very easy to forget. A smart trader lets the market do the work for them and waits patiently while other follow their opinions, impulses, and compulsions.

August 18th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 18th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

Live versus Memorex: Today’s Intraday Projections

This morning, as posted the majority of market structure projection (MSP) favored downward probability. Explicit reference was made to pronounced weakness potential if the Gold projection tracked. At 7:30 AM roughly, we posted in the lounge that the Gold projection was indeed tracking and reiterated on the initial cash bounce that downside was most probable outcome for the day. Trading with these types of edges makes a difference, as can easily be seen in the charts we have posted since the launch of the site.

Expectations at today's close were for a fairly strong bounce into 3:00AM or 6:00 AM. If the markets bounce into 6:00 AM then it is entirely plausible to experience a similar drop as todays into around noon and then finally a bit better rally - this scenario is the most bearish. A 3:00 AM high would leave open the potential for a consolidation/pullback into around 11:00 AM tomorrow but thereafter a quite strong rally.

We will not be continuing to post MSP premarket for much longer and do hope that this work have been of value for our readers.

July 23rd, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections Actual versus Projected

July 23rd, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections Actual versus Projected

Market Projections Today – Live vs Memorex

As a review of today's AM probabilities here is our "Live" vs "Memorex" analysis. The proposed market structure was Red Projection, which also coincided with timing windows. There are high probabilities for a sizable overnight drop from 2:00 AM high into a 7:00 AM low tomorrow, however, if that were to play out then tomorrow biases much more significantly up and will likely cause trouble for bears,  short-term - something that we will look at with more complete data later.

Stunning triggers from e-Tick-Tools as well - not shown. If anyone is interested message on Twitter or our support page and we can post them. To me, today's triggers were very interesting and prescient.

To me the most interesting thing about all this work is that it beyond totally blows up the feeling of inadequacy that is the underpinning for the concept of "Random Walk" as related to markets. People who have more fear than curiosity are very likely to come up with either one of two things, brilliant advances or total drivel. Which one is more highly valued by our society is most often very hard to tell. But "random walk" does not apply to markets - which are actually highly structured and predictable.

July 1st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections Live vs Memorex

July 1st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections Live vs Memorex

Today – Live versus Memorex Projection Analysis

Not much commentary needed. DOW was much more orderly than the SPX but both complied with structure and timing. Additionally, e-Tick-Tools real-time emotion analysis had a terrific day today. Daily AM session to AM session directionality remains precariously up into Monday morning. Monday. however, has a tendency to be a very weak day session day currently - selling from a morning high remains probable. Should be an interesting week next week.

June 26th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projection Reconcilliation

June 26th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projection Reconcilliation

How Today Projection’s Matched – Memorex vs Real

Below is a chart showing the real versus projected analysis from this morning. Using this tool set, bi-modal adjustment based purely on probability analysis and structure is possible.  In the most challenging conditions such as today's - it's required. This is why, it's so important to not rely on expectations and use data, and feedback on when probabilities shift.

June 23th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections Real vs Memorex

June 23th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections Real vs Memorex

Live Versus Memorex: Today’s Bi-Modal Intraday Market Structure

Below is the reconciliation of today's real-time calls. From top down on our Weekly, Daily and finally on the Intraday (shown below) with added data from Emotion, Flow and Gap...there were significant and obvious elements that simply eliminated the low probability outcomes.

Bi-modal switching in action real vs analysis reconcilliaton

Bi-modal switching in action real vs analysis reconcilliaton

One note, regarding probability related a Hindenburg Omen. As mentioned in the AM post on the subject, normal Hindenburg Omen's are unreliable and in fact rarely useful. However, as the name implies, there is a tremendous romantic attraction for people to short them...which has the direct effect - even in the rare case that they do work - of going against these traders initially. Given that we got a MCM Hindenburg Omen, the implications are much more bearish than normal, however, the nature of the setup is still in play because of the proximity to standard Hindenburg's, which implies that the lowest possible risk entry is to look for the squeeze that usually occurs and also that the market flow data seems to anecdotally support as well.