Posts

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 26, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:15PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2439, 10DMA 2437,  20DMA 2432, 50DMA 2401, 100DMA 2376, 200DMA 2286

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2410, 2399

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, June 26, 2017.

The overnight action has tracked both the red and magenta MSPs exceptionally well, and both point to weakness through the duration of the session which should be the theme for today.  Data is light on our first trading day of the week with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

The technical side of things had us close right on the 5DEMA Friday and currently is set to gap above.  Sellers are going to need to show up in force to push price below the stack of 5DEMA, 10DMA, and 20DMA along with rising support.  The only thing that resides above currently is the Primary and Intermediate pivot markers at the all time high.  A sustained break above the current levels could lead to a runaway rally.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 19-23 of June

The market pulled the old “W” pattern last week, making a low on Monday, then bouncing back up to test the ATH (which it missed by 3 points), then moving in lower again to (barely) take out Monday’s low before bouncing once more. From an EWT standpoint this sideways action might be a wave 4, which means the bull count is still alive and well and still the favorite. That continues to be the case until the market will overlap the 2398-2402 area (depending on which high you consider the top of nested wave 1).

Same as for quite a while now, the weekly cycles do not show any significant change. However it is interesting to note some aspects. Namely, the mcm-MA on these cycles provided support several times when it was tested from above. Also, both YM and ES are in up impulses which are now firmly established so would normally need a regular unwind, with a bullish support (BR) and corresponding END resistance to dissipate the up energy.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are also in nested up impulses and recently broke yet again above resistance, breakout which would soon turn into another nested up impulse, unless the market reverses strongly. In fact YM will confirm in the next few days, as the mcm-MA is now crossing over resistance.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 12-16 of June

The market moved mostly sideways (with a light down bias) last week, before putting in some fireworks on Friday. The action on the last trading day of the week deserves more careful analysis, as the market made a new ATH at the opening of the session, but which was then strongly sold off with a 30+ points decline, before bouncing back in the last hour before the close. This type of action, with a strong and fast reversal after a new high would normally point to at least some kind of short-term top, corresponding to a 5th wave in EWT. Currently the bear (EWT) options are not obvious, and this apparent top might be very short lived and be overtaken soon, but it just might be something more. 2398 is the first level to watch for an overlap on the way down.

Weekly cycles didn’t change much, except the directionality line on YM also started to move up like we were expecting last week.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are still above the resistance levels, but didn’t significantly breakout just yet. As the market moved quite near them on the lows from Friday, this can qualify as a back-test, so what the market does next week will be important for the intermediate term also. If it holds the lows and bounces, then the breakout over resistances might become another up impulse. If the market breaks below the resistance levels, then it means the initial breakout was just an overshoot and more bearish resolutions are possible.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 5-9 of June

In the previous newsletter we were warning that the action had nothing bearish in it and the EWT more bullish scenarios were becoming favorite. The market followed through last week and pushed even higher.

Weekly cycles saw a slight change in that directionality on ES finally moved off its lowest level. YM didn’t do that just yet, but will likely follow unless the market turns soon.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles triggered new resistances, but the market managed to break above them. The breakout is not significant just yet and may prove to be just a spike. But the further the market moves, the more likely the breakout becomes. The resistance levels are still important to watch, in case the market moves lower since if the back-test holds, that would be dangerous for bears.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 2, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:00AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2420, 10DMA 2413,  20DMA 2400, 50DMA 2378, 100DMA 2354, 200DMA 2269

These are key Fib Levels:  2459, 2429, 2411, 2400

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2410(intermediate minor), 2404(intermediate minor), 2383(intermediate), 2374 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2345(intermediate minor), 2326(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, June 2, 2017.

Happy Friday everyone!  With current price action odds favor a weak to flat day via the white MSP.  Data is light today with only the Baker Hughes Rig Count remaining at 1:00PMEST.

MSP

The technical picture took a turn in the favor of buyers yet again yesterday with a breakout over the broadening resistance which now resides in the 2425 area.  Basing on this area on a pullback is a clear warning that higher prices are coming and most likely in a runaway fashion.  On the flip side, a break of the rising support sets up a high probability of a retest of the next nearest intermediate minor level at 2410.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 29 May -2 June

Last week saw the market push towards new highs. There was nothing bearish about the action, quite the opposite in fact, the market being able to push past resistances and into new ATHs. From an EWT stand-point the picture is becoming increasingly complicated. The more complex correction is still possible, albeit not favourite anymore. For this to happen the market would need to turn quite soon and avoid pushing significantly higher from here. The most obvious bullish scenario is for a nested wave up from the 2320 low, which would need the market to head higher in a steep manner (continuing the action of last week)

Weekly cycles are unchanged, with directionality still at the lowest level despite the bounce.  Once that moves, it would be a confirmation that the up move is really bullish.

Weekly Cycles

On the daily cycles we saw a support level trigger also on ES (following YM). The up impulses are continuing to unwind and the next resistance levels will be very important to watch for reaction, especially since it will be a 3rd END on ES, marking the completion of the impulse.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 22-26 of May

Last week saw the return of volatility to the market. After 2 days of consecutive new ATHs on Mon-Tue, the market saw a big down gap on Wed, which finished more than 40 points lower than the previous close. Next day we got a lower low, followed by a rebound which continued on Friday. Despite the more exciting action, we are still in the 2320-2400 chop zone, so the market is keeping its options open. From an EWT stand-point the more complex correction (started at the ATH from March 1st) scenario is gaining more weight because of the side-ways action. This would mean a flat is in the works, with wave A at the 2320 low and B either done at the recent ATH or needing a new minor high to finish. Then wave C down should follow with new lows (below 2320). Because of the overlap of 2370, the bullish scenario now became very bullish, because the only option still on the table is for a nested wave up (two series of 1-2 waves). This scenario is lower odds, though, at least at the moment because of the side-ways action.

Weekly cycles are unchanged, but directionality made it to the lowest level. That is not a bullish sign.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles held the test of resistances and moved lower and triggered some bullish signals at the lows. ES had 2 consecutive LRE (lower risk entries) for longs, while YM triggered a new support level. Those pointed up, but unless ES also triggers a new support level, it is still expected for the previous resistance to hold.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 8, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2391, 10DMA 2389,  20DMA 2368, 50DMA 2366, 100DMA 2328, 200DMA 2248

These are key Fib Levels:  2418, 2402, 2389, 2387

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, May 8, 2017

The overnight price action appears to be favoring the cyan MSP at present, but keep an eye on the regular trading hours open where timing causes very dramatic outcomes between them.  Data is very light today with Labor Market Conditions at 10:00AMEST and TD Ameritrade IMX at 12:30PMEST.

MSP

As noted on the board Friday, the sustained trade above the declining resistance resulted into a buying spree going into the close.  The overnight saw a spike even higher but has since returned to roughly the closing levels of Friday's trading session.  Above the all time highs and greater than 2410 is the most likely target.  The broken declining resistance in conjunction with the stack of 5DEMA, and 10DMA should provide support for buyers on any decline.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 8-12 of May

The market moved sideways to lower in the first 4 trading days last week, with Friday bringing a stronger effort from the bull side with a push which came very narrowly close to the ATH. Our EWT scenario is playing out quite well and this looks (so far) like the 3 wave move off the important low at 2320ish. Currently 2 main scenarios are on the table: this is part of a more complex correction started at the ATH (a B wave of a flat, as mentioned in the previous newsletter), OR the correction ended at the 2320ish low and this is part of an impulsive move up. Once the current minor wave ends the next correction will give us a clue, 2370 would be the level to watch as the overlap (or not) would add weight to one or the other scenario.
No change for the weekly cycles. Directionality is still moving lower and it almost made it to the lowest level.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles are now directly testing the resistance levels (the 2nd END on ES and the 1st END on YM). As mentioned in the previous newsletter, a minor new high is not excluded, however the normal expectation would be for the resistance levels to hold, which would fit better with the flat EWT scenario mentioned.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
You need to be authorized or upgrade to see this content. Please go to http://mcm-ct.com/membership-signup-dev-2/ to sign up.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – May 4, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 8:30AMEST, 10:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2387, 10DMA 2381,  20DMA 2364, 50DMA 2364, 100DMA 2325, 200DMA 2245

These are key Fib Levels:  2402, 2196, 2379

These are key primary and intermediate: 2401(intermediate minor), 2379(intermediate minor), 2373 (intermediate minor), 2355(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor), 2322(intermediate minor), 2255(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Thursday, May 4, 2017

Present price action is favoring the magenta MSP which would indicate weakness from the 8:30AMEST timing through the opening bell and then a positive bias the remainder of the day.  Data is abundant with International Trade, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, and the Gallup Good Jobs Rate at 8:30AMEST, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 9:45AMEST, Factory Orders at 10:00AMEST, and lastly the EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30AMEST.

MSP

As surmised by yesterday's update, the break of near term rising support produced a break down towards the lower intermediate minor level of 2373, but was arrested by the 10DMA.  Current price is set to open near the declining resistance level just overhead which will serve as a warning for sellers if trade is sustained above that and/or successfully backtested on a break above.  The long standing 2379 fib level was nearly tested at yesterday's lows which serves two roles going forward.  Either the failure to test the level translates to an extremely strong move higher as the correction was truncated, or the correction still requires more time and price depreciation.  Good luck today and keep an eye on premarket price action with timing and the data dump at 8:30AMEST.

Primary and Intermediate Levels