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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 1st week of December

The market pushed ever upward last week making a new ATH at 2657. Then it experienced an interesting “flash crash” event on Friday, apparently on some “fake news”, which saw a 45 point drop in less than 1h. After that, it recovered strongly retracing more than 80% of the drop by the close, which shows that buyers are still willing to buy dips.
No change in the weekly cycles, as the up impulses on both indexes are pushing ever higher.

Weekly Cycles

The daily cycles show nicely Friday’s “oops” moment. On ES the drop brought the index very close to the mcm-MA, which provided support yet again. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 28, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 10:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2596, 10DMA 2587,  20DMA 2585, 50DMA 2557, 100DMA 2509, 200DMA 2448

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2595(intermediate minor) 2577 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 28,  2017

The overnight session, much like last nights, looks set to open higher and is taking on the characteristics of the red MSP which while a bit choppy through the early session looks to add onto the strength that started in the overnight as the session progresses.  Data is abundant today with International Trade in Goods at 8:30AMEST, Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST,  FHFA House Price Index and Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00AMEST, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, and State Street Investor Confidence all coming in at 10:00AMEST,  and lastly the Gallup US Economic Confidence Index at 2:00PMEST.

MSP

Again we challenged the rising support into the close and looks set to gap higher again this morning.  Until we trade through this level on a sustained basis then buyers still have a firm grasp on the market.  Once this level breaks we can look for the intermediate minor level at 2595 as a clear downside minimum target.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels Detail

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – November 21, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 11:30AMEST, 2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2578, 10DMA 2582,  20DMA 2579, 50DMA 2549, 100DMA 2502, 200DMA 2442

These are key Fib Levels: 2549, 2557, 2592, 2607

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2597(intermediate minor) 2579 (intermediate minor), 2445(intermediate minor), 2490(intermediate minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, November 21, 2017

With only the cyan MSP marking a low at timing through the overnight there is potential a good potential for a reversal around mid day timing and weakness all the way through the afternoon session.  Economic data today consists of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30AMEST, the Feds Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST.

MSP

Yesterday we found rising support at the close and sustained trade on a retest of the moving averages which has let to the overnight follow through which looks set to open well over the declining resistance level.  Price action over this area will be important because a failure to maintain above the resistance has a good probability of retracing the entire rally and head towards the 50DMA.  The key word is 'failure' though.  Sustained trade above resistance should be considered basing for a new rally leg.  Good luck today!

Primary and Intermediate Levels

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week 13-17th of November

The market made new ATHs last week, which is becoming something rather ordinary. However, it ended lower on a weekly basis, after retreating 30 points from the ATH to Thursday’s low. It seems Thursdays are the most bearish inclined days in November, 2 weeks ago the Thursday saw a similar move. Both those moves were however recovered quickly, most of it even on a daily basis. No apparent change on our EWT scenario which is a terminal pattern currently unwinding 4-5 waves. Market is moving slowly higher with some “hiccups” along the way, but whether we turn after a spike higher or market just falls on its own weight after marginal new highs is hard to say.
No change in the weekly cycles. Directionality is heading up again and getting close to the maximum value.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. The decline on Thursday brought us closer to a test of the mcm-MA on ES and a direct test on YM. These held as market quickly recovered.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for first Week of November

The market moved mostly sideways last week, with a slight upward tilt. But even so, it managed to make a new ATH on Wednesday and finished the week very close to that. This is consistent with out assumption that these are sequences of 4-5 waves, from an EWT perspective, which would mean that it is a terminal pattern. No sign of a top just yet, but any impulsive decline should be viewed as a possible start of a bigger correction, so we reiterate our recommendation that bulls should avoid becoming complacent here.
No change in the weekly cycles. Up impulses continue to extend with no unwind in sight.

Weekly Cycles

Same story on the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet, however we do have directionality coming close to the minimum level. That is not bullish, unless the price action manages to push this back up.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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MCM Newsletter – Outlook for last Week of October

The market head-faked the bears last week. After a new ATH on Monday which was immediately sold, it declined 30+ points until the low it hit on Wednesday, but then the market came back strongly and made yet another new ATH on Friday, finishing close to the highs. From an EWT perspective, because this week’s low took out the low from the wedge of 2 weeks ago, these are likely sequences of 4-5 waves. Which would mean we are in a terminal pattern. Indeed there are enough waves now to count this as a complete impulse off the August low and even from the March low, so bulls should avoid being complacent.
The weekly cycles are still in up impulses with no sign of an uwind started.

Weekly Cycles

The same story is painted by the daily cycles. Up impulses are ongoing and no unwinds just yet. In these types of patterns the faster cycles usually offer better clues in regards to a potential top.

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 27, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  9:30AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2565, 10DMA 2561,  20DMA 2549, 50DMA 2503, 100DMA 2476, 200DMA 2415

These are key Fib Levels: 2578, 2568, 2547, 2527

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2547 (intermediate minor), 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 27, 2017

Happy Friday everyone!  With GDP in the rear view mirror, data is light the rest of the day with only Consumer Sentiment at 10:00AMEST, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  MSP looks to be overall choppy today with not much of an advantage to be given to either side.

MSP

We look set to rally above resistance that stopped yesterday's rally, it will be important for buyers to maintain above and ideally close the day above the 5DEMA to signal a new shift in short near term momentum.  We also have a new intermediate pivot level at 2547 marking a significant point for sellers to shoot for.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level

MCM Newsletter – Outlook for Week of 23-27 October

The market took another 3 days to finish the wedge we were mentioning, within an annoyingly tight range. Thursday finally saw the resolution of that wedge with a decent pullback to roughly the area where the wedge started. After the market made a low there, bulls got back control with authority. Friday was very bullish, with a 10+ points gap higher and finishing at the highs. From an EWT perspective, the wedge pattern (or ending diagonal) is usually a final wave (wave 5). Considering that the market retreated to its starting point, then made new highs, it likely means that it was a wave 5 of minor degree and we are now in a new wave started at Thursday’s low. On a micro-count, it looks like the market still needs a few 4-5 waves to unwind, so it’s hard to call a top, but in case the market moves lower, Thursday’s low is all important. Overlapping that is likely confirmation that a turn started.
Still no change on the weekly cycles. No unwind in sight (bullish retrace and corresponding ENDs) and now directionality bounced and is heading higher again.

Weekly Cycles

The up impulses on the daily cycles are looking good and (still) look bullish picture. ES came very close to testing the mcm-MA on Thursday’s low before bouncing, showing that it is still providing support (which is also bullish).

Daily Cycles

The 288 and 480min cycles    
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S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 20, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2558, 10DMA 2554,  20DMA 2536, 50DMA 2294, 100DMA 2470, 200DMA 2409

These are key Fib Levels: 2564, 2536

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Friday, October 20, 2017

A wild ride for yesterday's regular trading hours session brought us back to roughly flat on the day.  Data is light today with only Existing Home Sales at 10:00AMEST and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00PMEST.  While our rising wedge patter produced a rather dramatic opening drop yesterday, it was quickly bought back up just prior to the outlined rising support and has continued through the overnight with new all time highs in the futures market.  Barring some selling in the premarket, we look set to open back up towards broadening resistance and new all time highs in the cash market as well.  Given the duration of the overall run, you'll likely see selling present itself on any contact of the broadening resistance from here on until a more substantial breakdown ensues.  Good luck today and have a great weekend!

Primary and Intermediate Level Detail

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – October 16, 2017

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  2:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2551, 10DMA 2545,  20DMA 2525, 50DMA 2287, 100DMA 2465, 200DMA 2403

These are key Fib Levels: 2566, 2530

These are key primary and intermediate levels: 2491(intermediate minor), 2457(intermediate minor), 2440(intermediate minor), 2424(intermediate minor), 2410(intermediate minor), 2404 (intermediate minor), 2384(intermediate)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Monday, October 16, 2017.

Overnight price action has tracked the cyan MSP well so a rather flat day overall is to be expected.  Data is extremely light today with only the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30AMEST, and the Treasury Budget at 2:ooPMEST.

MSP

Price still continues to defy gravity and the 5DEMA but has slowed its torrent ascent as buyer fatigue sets in.  Little has changed over the past few days with little to expect from sellers until the 5DEMA is closed below, at which point a trip to the low 2540's at the very least is to be expected.  Good luck today and have a great week!

Primary and Intermediate Levels