mcm “MSP, Market Cycles, eTickTools & Trade Modality/Allocation” Webinar Scheduled & Attendance Information

We have scheduled part 1 of the "mcm MSP, Market Cycles, eTickTools & Trade Modality/Allocation Webinar". This will be a 45 minute to 60 minute general Q & A and overview. We are especially looking forward to learning from your questions that we can address in detailed fashion in a follow-up webinar for Sunday @ 5 PM EST for Part 2.

We look forward to seeing you there.

Waves - mcm Webinar

mcm Webinar - impulse waves/cycles, eTickTools, mcm-Indexes, MSP and Trade Discussion for Volatile Markets


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517 6159#


mcm “MSP, Market Cycles, eTickTools & Trade Modality/Allocation” Webinar Scheduling/Poll & Invitation

Applied Cycle, eMotional Impulses, MSP

Applied Cycle, eMotional Impulses, MSP

We have wanted to do a follow-up webinar to our previous discussion for quite some time but scheduling always seems to be an issue so we are once more putting the Webinar scheduling and attendance to a vote. The amount of interest and the state of the markets leads us feel that further discussion and Q&A for the benefit traders.

The webinar/online meeting will be free and will be an interactive Q&A format when it is scheduled. We are seeking to get a near-term slot assigned that is convenient to as many people including ourselves as possible. We feel that there is a benefit on getting this scheduled as soon as possible.

Below is a vote. Please choose the times that work best for you and supply your email address and we will update you on the final scheduling of the webinar. Note all the times are quoted in Eastern Standard Time (New York) Also, note you can become  a registered user for our site and vote which will make it easier to sign up for the event once it is scheduled.  Registration is free.

Scheduling options for the "mcm Cycles Impulses, eTickTools, MSP and Trade Allocation", when would be your preferred timing?


Major Support Dead Ahead – If Broken Support is Virtually Nonexistent Till the 1600’s

MSP, as usual, has done a great job of timing out the market cycles. The next inflection point is projected for around the 22nd of January. Meanwhile we have reverted to BEAR MARKET microstructure on the short term MSP additionally we have a critical set of supports coming up with thin zones directly below them. If these supports break near-term the event brings the potential for lower levels to be reached within the MSP inflection point.

Emotionally, the market is NOT in good shape and lots of cash has been extracted from the market on selling days and this has NOT been replenished on buying days. These are consequences of unbridled gambling by the FED directed global central bank cartel system

No matter the case, we remain extra cautious or short-biased bounces in the near-term till we have the potential for a larger inflection point.

As per the "mcm Real January Effect" we have been tracking since the first two days for the year and confirmed with the first-week market structure and then finally this weeks market structure some pronounced negative company in terms the "Real January Effect" outcomes which presently suggest a interim low in March with yearly lows in October or November. Potential Intra year drawdown is up to 45% if the market confirms these market structures with its January close.

Careful out there.

mcm MSP Projection as Published in Aug/Sept

mcm MSP Projection as Published in Aug/Sept

mcm- MSP Proejctions Actual to Projection Comparison

mcm- MSP Projections Actual to Projection Comparison

S&P500 Levels chart

S&P500 Levels chart

S&P500 Historical Emotional Extremes chart

S&P500 Historical Emotional Extremes chart

mcm Accumulation Components Indexes

mcm Accumulation Components Indexes


Inflection Points Expected This Week – As Market Operates In Its BEAR MARKET CYCLES

This weekend we will present a host of unique charts and a detailed discussion of market structure projection, which had a software issue related to the end of November timing for a low - which actually due to a rare condition forward translated erroneously skipping the correct mapping for the week so the 16th. We identified this early last week and updated members, as soon as it became clear that future vs. historical MSP was not agreeing. This bug/error has been fixed and will be discussed in a separate post. However, inflection points are expected imminently if not already in.

The cycle study shown in the large chart below (you will need to maximize or zoom into the chart to see the details) is a robust and proprietary analysis that we use in our proprietary trading systems. The objective of this study is to devine the direction and timing of market movement by backing out its natural oscillations - or waves. As can be seen in the chart below, the red and pale cyan studies at the bottom of this chart show the larger directional move in the markets. They show when a market is trending by magnetizing to the upper and lower bounds. This means the 100 and 0 levels. Persistent travel at these extreme bounds indicates a trending market as well as the direction of the trend. When markets attempt to change course, a period of questioning is required. These market questions show up as volatility or could be called CHOP. We are currently in a pronounced stretch of zero bound attention which usually occurs once a change direction has successfully occurred. These tools defined the change of direction in June and July this year from UP to DOWN and likely into a bear market. They could not have had better timing. The objective of these analyzes is non-latent and simple, we think that this has been accomplished in the chart we publish on this page.

Additionally, there is another condition occurring similarly to 2007. While it is not our objective to show systematic trading as an indicator. The RVS is an old and established trading system that has unique qualities currently potentially acting a bit like a larger-term indictor. RVS trades only with what it feels is the prevailing trend. During the last five years. While it has had many losing individual trade elements. It has scarcely had a losing model position since 2009 and its releases in 2010 and 2012. This means that every position, including all the entries required to build a position on an NET-BASIS, resulted in a profit this makes the system stable and persistent which is why we trust it and have not changed anything about it in years. Due to the characteristic of the system's trading only in what it perceives to be the prevailing market direction it believes most probable...and its ability to trade profitably and consistently through whipsaws that usually accompany changes in direction in the market, this system is now setting up a pattern almost identical to 2007. Within the cycle analysis, we are presently likely in initiating bear markets, similar to 2007. As such, RVS believed we were in a new bear market starting in July and profitably shorted (albeit small) the September and October bounces. The reaction of the markets since then has created the perception that the Bull-Is-Back. This can be seen via the many Elliott wave counts and technical analysis calling for new highs, dramatic or astronomical new highs. We believe that most of this analysis is founded in an emotional basis and lacking reliable or factual data.  This reaction the markets also has so far attempted to convince RVS that longs are the preferred trades. If the expected inflection points play out and the cycle directional trend analysis is accurate, this phase for RVS should become a similar whipsaw as in 2007 and regardless of if markets make new highs (as in 2007)  the system should soon revert to a preferred bias towards short risk.

RVS & Market Cycle Study

RVS & Market Cycle Study

Daily Cycles General Discussion

On the daily cycles, we can observe that since the beginning of 2015 the market has been just oscillating, meaning moving in regular waves, without any cycle impulses. The cyan lines were marking the start of the waves, with magenta marking the crest. We can see that at point “A” the market did attempt to break into an impulse up, however that was never confirmed since MA never got above the magenta line, and finally the attempt was reversed and the market continued to move in regular waves. In August something significant happened. As highlighted by point “B” the market broke down into a downward impulse, confirmed by the MA. At point “C” we can see that this downward cycle impulse put in a BR (bearish retracement) and later an END, meaning that the impulse is starting to shows signs of completion. It could complete with only one END, although another BR accompanied by a 2nd END would not be out of the question.

The ES daily chart below (from around a week ago) shows basically the same story with the regular waves and then the impulse down in August and the BR and END.

daily charts

Example of Daily Cycles