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MCM Market update for week 43

Happy Halloween weekend everyone.  This weeks update is going to take a top down approach in an attempt to ground everything and get a good look at the forest and focus a little less on the individual trees that comprise it.  On our run up from the 2009 lows you can see that we've broken from the sustained uptrend at magenta which gave us our first substantial correction since the 2011 lows.  The vast majority of analysts are quick to declare a new trend is under way after a rally or decline begins simply as a function of near term price action.  This is a mistake.  Large trend moves take time to consolidate as expectations change among investors.  These periods last just as long as the trend periods if not longer.  At present, we are about half way through such a period as we traverse across the blue channel from the upper bound to the lower.  Now while the 400 point range from 2200 to 1800 seems massive on an intraday basis, it is relatively minor in the grand scheme of things.  The cyan cross sectional channel is important as we cut across the larger blue channel because it defines price zones.  Maintaining trade above the upper level lets you know that buyers conviction in future prospects of higher prices is strong.  A failure of the upper bound of this channel is a hint that conviction is likely in the process of waning and a larger move back through the previous consolidation zone is likely underway.  Since price has traversed this cyan channel area multiple times in the past it acts as a vacuum because all the levels but the most recent have been broken through and resistance to price change is weak.  With that being said, it is a reasonable assumption that any sustained trade below the upper bound has a high probability of price finding the lower bound in a relatively short period of time before making its next trending longer term decision.

SPXLT

S&P 500

Taking a look at the closer term picture via the cycles, we can see that the market has not decided yet which way it wants to go. The weekly cycles show supports triggered, which have a bounce as normal expectation, while the daily cycles show broken support on ES and a fresh resistance on YM, which point down. The triggered levels on both time frames are critical to watch therefore since whichever break first will likely indicate a bigger move.

The weekly show a change compared to the previous week. The supports which triggered on ES and YM were reset and are now triggered again. This is a very rare occurrence and it happens only when a level (support or resistance) is triggered and something changes at the end of that bar, before confirming, that makes it not confirm. This only appears when the charts are reloaded which is why it was not seen immediately. In any case, the currently triggered support levels do not change the picture. The only difference is that the support triggered by ES is higher and is a bullish retrace (BR), meaning the impulse up is still valid. Also, because it is close to the break-out level it has higher odds of holding, but the conclusion is the same: a bounce is the normal expectation.

Weekly Cycles

Weekly Cycles

As mentioned, the daily cycles are showing exactly the opposite. ES broke it’s support level and although it didn’t break down and the impulse down wasn’t confirmed, it is a sign of weakness. YM is in a confirmed impulse down and it triggered a 2nd bearish retrace (BR) resistance level which normally would need a 2nd END support lower.

Daily Cycles

Daily Cycles

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –September 7, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today: 9:30AMEST, 1:00PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2179, 10DMA 2176, 20DMA 2180, 50DMA 2163

These are key Fib Levels:  2189, 2192

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, September 7, 2016:

Marginal weakness in the overnight session hints at red open.  Economic Data wise we're looking at the Redbook at 8:55AMEST, and the PMI Services index at 9:45AMEST which coincides with MSP intraday timing point [2].  We are currently backtesting an End on the 60min cycles which should provide support near term and overhead we have resistance on the 480 chart at yesterday's highs that will be the target for buyers to take control of.   Good luck today!

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update –August 31, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2175, 10DMA 2179, 20DMA 2180, 50DMA 2150

These are key Fib Levels:  2172, 2169, 2156

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2180(minor), 2155(minor), 2148(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Wednesday, August 31, 2016

We have a few data points on tap today, but we may run into some consolidation as a function of the holiday weekend coming up along with the NFP release on Friday.  8:15AMEST is the ADP Employment Report, 9:45AMEST we have the Chicago PMI with Pending Home Sales at 10:00AMEST, and lastly there is the EIA Petroleum Status at 10:30AMEST.  Intraday MSP is hinting at a weak first portion of the session followed by afternoon strength.  60min Cycles put in a Bearish Retrace during the overnight session and there is also a new support cycle at yesterday's lows via the 288 chart.  This will be the defined range to be mindful of in the near term.  Good luck today.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

 

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – June 14, 2016

Good morning everyone,

These are key timing for today:  10:00AMEST, 1:30PMEST

These are key MA levels:  5EMA 2096, 10SMA 2100, 20SMA 2087, 50SMA 2077

These are key Fib Levels: 2063

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2059(minor), 2073(major), 2086(major), 2099(minor)

Here is today's market look at the S&P 500 for Tuesday, June 14,  2016

On the data front everyone is casting their attention to the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon so we'll likely be in for some jockeying volatility as the big players place their bets on the outcome.  Today we have Business Inventories at 10:00AMEST which coincides with timing and will likely set the tone for most of the session with regards to MSP.  Cycle wise we have the 15min unwinding into a likely 2nd end while a few of the longer term charts are likely to need a bounce for a BR so be on the lookout for a reversal of some kind.  VIX is above the 20 level which signals normal intraday volatility in the 1-2% department, so these reversals have the ability to be rather substantial.  Both HAL and RVS are long, but be mindful that they have deep pockets and a mastery of averaging and risk controls built into them.  Be careful out there, take your time, and choose your entries carefully.

MSP

MSP

Primary and Intermediate Levels

Primary and Intermediate Levels

S&P500 Expert Lounge Update – April 27, 2016

Best to your trading & welcome to our new subscribers

These are key timing for today: 7:30AM and 1:30PM

These are key MA levels as of previous day close:  5EMA 2094, 10SMA 2088

These are key primary and intermediate levels:  2071, 2085, 2099(minor), 2116

Here is today's pre market look at the S&P 500 for  Wednesday, April 27, 2016,

Happy FOMC day everyone!  While today is only scheduled to be a rate announcement with little in the way of press conferences, any quotes made by any Fed member throughout the day could set the tone for what is read into by the actual announcement.  Markets have been choppy as a result of the anticipation and will likely continue to be so till the release at 2:ooPMEST this afternoon.  As expected, there is key timing near the 2PM witching hour so be mindful of a high or low at that time and which daily MSP is correlated best at the time for hints of how the remaining two hours of trading may unfold.  Best of luck out there today and be mindful of your stop placement this afternoon as volatility is virtually assured to pick up dramatically.

2016-04-26_18-27-21_intradayMSP

Today's Intraday MSP

mSPXLevelsDetail

SPX (Cash) Levles chart

OPEX Intraday MSP Projections

OPEX Inflection Point? Friday Intraday Projections

This week's options expiration activity matched 20-year expectations for market structure production. With strong rally shown in red starting at around 11 AM. The data shown below is specific to options expiration week behavior. So far, options expiration Friday is following the market structure projection normals, which are indicated by the red projection on the chart below. Normally, acceleration occurs in the 2 PM area specifically in the last hour and a half of options expiration Friday. In this case, the edge is for a down in reaction. However, take note that in strong bear market moves where options expiration has been proceeded by. A weakness the last hour and a half to two hours of the Friday expiration can be a relatively sharp upwards reaction. This is not expected today, as our desperate and panicked central bankers have done a fine job of messing up the best-planned option positions into this week.

As a note, yesterday was a very unusual day with the tools triggering the equivalent of the strongest buying efforts in the last 15 to 20 years. This registered with a 100% percentile X-Tick and a breakout over this emotional buying extreme for one of the strongest buying panics and buying capitulations that we have witnessed. This was truly extraordinary if not a bit shocking, especially given the limited amount of cash that flowed into the market yesterday. Generally, mcm expectations for this week were for a consolidation week from last week's highs followed by a further upward bias grind into early November. Yesterday's buying panic, however, especially when combined the pending low expected in the dollar, sets up the risk markets for some significant headwinds. Though edges into November in the equity markets are positive, probabilities favor day-to-day weakness with large spikes interspersed between – most likely triggered by hyperbole from our central planning contingent.

OPEX Intraday MSP Projections

OPEX Intraday MSP Projections

Finishing with a Flourish? Projections Suggest Weakness Ahead

We are approaching key areas as shown on the Levels charts. 1990 to 2010 is a significant area on the SPX cash index. It would be reasonable to expect a reaction from this area. Additionally, market structure projection suggests early strength is likely to be dissipated into the afternoon. Moreover, Wednesday and Thursdays directional bias is significantly weaker. On top of market structure projection suggesting weakness ahead, which could be pronounced - we have the moon cycles – which are approaching the last moon and a new moon series. A weak reaction to the last moon could intensify the reaction to the new moon. Below is a chart of market structure projection for the intraday, which suggests timing around 10:30 AM and 2 PM. Either area is a valid place for the market to turn from upwards to downloads, 10:30 AM is the higher probability. However, to put things succinctly, the general expectation is latent morning strength leads to afternoon weakness.

Other data to note, is that the bias for strength this month ends on the fourth trading day of the month - this is where he currently sits. The implication is not that the market needs to fall apart after that, but rather that upward potential wanes. In this case, given the size of the retest of the currently working bear impulses a pronounced reaction would not be surprising. We want to reiterate again, that this rally does not fit into the structure of a bull market presently due to the working downward impulses on the daily and weekly charts and also the bias of the systems towards "bear market" predisposition.

Oct 6th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Oct 6th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

SPX Cash Levels Chart

SPX Cash Levels Chart

Today’s Short-Term Projections – Squeeze

There was a high probability 3:30 AM timing window today. However, this timing and market structure was not respected so far this AM and additionally the move overnight was too strong for such a structure. Impulses on short-term charts and potential emerging ones one medium term charts suggest move may need some time to metabolize. Yesterday, followed projections nearly exactly - with the low triggering around mid-day as posted in real-time in the lounge and contrasting bearish views expecting breaks to new lows. Presently, it is time for bears to be careful for a few days.

September 25th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

September 25th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Intraday Projections: September 11th weakness

Yesterday the markers deviated significantly from structural behavior. Perhaps contract roll for futures contributed to this. We published to this deviation potential live in the "Lounge"early in the morning when the markets should have continued their down movement "This bounce should not be happening here via timing and market structure - we are covering shorts for break even. Lots of small trade shorts are occurring while much larger buys are occurring which suggests retail shorts are likely to get run over" was what was posted around 10:30 AM. This is an example of how knowing what the structure of market can be as valuable when it complies as when it does not. Significant deviation from market structure is an early sign to expect the unexpected. Combined with multi-disciplinary analysis such as the exceptional signals from the mcm-Indexes and the eTickTools, we had actionable early insight into the day's developments.

Today there are no particularly bullish outcomes probable for the day session. However, please remember that the markets are being applied strong drugs and are highly susceptible to erratic unstructured behavior.  Keep in mind, weekly projections suggest a sharp upward push soon so keep an eye peeled for the start of any upward momentum...such a move could end up being pronounced.

Note, today is September 11th. Having lived through the 9/11 event directly and personally please take a moment in tribute to this terrible event.

September 11th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

September 11th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Character of a Composite Day in September

Below is a composite of the net character of all September Biased Market Structure. Each day is netted out to just one imaginary day for each of the databases: 24 QE Era data (Magenta), Inverse Market Structure (Cyan), 20 Year Market Structure (Red) and Bear Market Structure (Gold). What we can see is that if any progress is made in September it generally happens in short bursts of strong days and more than likely very strong overnight sessions. Other than that the general tendency is towards weakness during the day session. Highs like to form int he pre-market between 3:00 AM and 6:00 AM EST and lows like to form in the afternoon in the 1:00 PM to 2:00 PM timing. So, this makes the pulse of the market in September orient around a timing window of 5:00 AM and 1:30 PM with generally only two timing points. This is unusual as it is more usual to have three. However, these structures may be quite useful for trading the rest of the month. We will post additional details for members.

September 2015 COMPOSITE Intraday Market Structure Projections

September 2015 COMPOSITE Intraday Market Structure Projections