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FED-Day Targeted Intraday MSP Probability Analysis

Below is a highly targeted MSP analysis that uses our database and MSP algorithms to project data probability scenarios and timing specific to all FED days and in context for today particularly. The interesting thing is that I had expected to see some more positive options and, in fact, the scenarios are MORE negatively skewed. This accentuates the fact that the occurrence of AM session highs, significantly put at risk positive follow through this afternoon. Most negative is the QE data-set in Magenta. Should pre-6:00 AM highs characterize the morning session, probabilities increase for more pronounced weakness that flows into the afternoon and OVERNIGHT sessions.

Note that because this statistical analysis is ONLY specific to FED DAY Data - NO MSP is shown of non-FED days on the chart below.

June 17th, 2015 FED DAY DATA SET Intraday Market Structure Projections

June 17th, 2015 FED DAY DATA SET Intraday Market Structure Projections

Fed Day Intraday Probabilities

Daily MSP indicated bias for today's AM session to be higher than yesterday's AM session open. This in rare instances can extend till around 3 hours +/- from the cash open in rare cases. Today could easily be one of those cases. Therefore, IF daily probabilities are to be respected a high is most likely before 12:00 pm at an extreme and almost all probabilities are suggesting bias for weakness in the afternoon to evening. So, in summary, probabilities for highs would be expected to extend into mid-morning with an outside possibility into around 2:00 PM as shown at timing bar [3] in the chart. Bias for weakness after that. To reiterate, in a modal fashion, if 11 AM to 12 PM marks highs probabilities for downside increase significantly for the afternoon and could be significantly more pronounced than the alternatives. This is something to keep an eye on.

With just about every Elliott wave analyst is looking higher at this time now that we bounced off the recent low, it is rather interesting that probability analysis supports exactly the opposite. The only Elliott wave analyst I know who's  would likely not follow the crowd in this type of scenario is http://pretzelcharts.com - Jason Haver. I highly recommend his work. Currently, he is taking some personal time so I am not sure if he will publish an analysis today. While on the subject of great work and analysis there are some exceptional posts going on at http://solarcycles.net/. Check them out: [1. 1929, 2. is-this-it, 3. the-conundrum-of-our-times-part-1, 4. the-conundrum-of-our-times-part-2] (BTW you very rarely will see such links in our posts unless something exceptional is going on in our view)

I am preparing a more detailed look a specific FED market structure projection via a separate post that I hope to get out shortly. However, normal market structure projection probabilities are represented in this post.

June 17th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

June 17th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections