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Daily Cycle Chart

Look Out Below – Bear Cycle Impulses Mark Retests Complete

Last night, as posted in the "lounge", the market action was distinctly that which we have not seen since the 2007 and 2008 era. Yesterday, to the dismay of many to be sure, the Dow Jones Industrials Index, for no apparent reason, spiked 65 points in 30 seconds and reverted almost the same amount in another 30 seconds. Clearly this was a transaction under duress. Additionally, the impact of this could have transmitted emotional fear to the remaining equity markets, however, the behavior among all equity markets, was not constructive. Moreover, we have been sitting since Friday in pending cycle setups on the daily charts. Today, the dark magenta dot on the daily cycle chart for ES indicates that the cycle will now print. The price at which the cycle will print has not confirmed, therefore, it is shown dark. However, do not let the applications of the cycle be lost on you. This is a significant event and implies 70 to 100 points down in short order. If it is to be saved by another cyclic support cycle, then one will need to appear similar in fashion to the end cycle shown on the chart below. This does not need to occur - the market can make a much larger swing lower if it so decides. However, from a structural perspective, probabilities do favor that a near-term drop is likely be supported and probable to attempt a rally into early November. Any such rally can begin from significantly lower levels and result in a lower high is easily as it can result in a better retest of the cycle impulse levels in higher highs.

Note, also, that the weekly chart now has confirmed a more bearish potential setup than we were previously monitoring. Firstly, the weekly chart generated LRE triggers which are indicated by the red dots at the top of the last two weekly bars that completed. These indicate a propensity for downward reversion and a lower risk potential entry for such a position. There was a potential for the weekly chart to print a bearish retracement at the conclusion of the impulse we test. Given the nature of the impulses at this present time, it is unlikely to get such a BR (bearish retracement) to print on the charts until the market has put more effort in. We have rendered one example, though there are few other potentials, of how the dissipation phase of this impulse cycle may begin on the weekly chart.

Last point, notice that the complete cyclic cycle maneuver on the daily chart was matched by completed impulses upwards on the 135 minute chart which also has a fractal relationship to the 60 minute chart impulse cycles.

Daily Cycle Chart

Daily Cycle Chart

Weekly Cycle Chart

Weekly Cycle Chart

60 minute and 135 minute Cycle Charts

60 minute and 135 minute Cycle Charts

Restrained Market Emotions Corroborate August Drop as Likely Downside Breakout

The VIX is a very dubious measure of emotion.

  • Firstly, it is subject to intense manipulation.
  • Secondly, it only reflects panic on drops.
  • Thirdly, euphoric behavior or panic at tops is not reflected or reliable in any form.

For these reasons, mcm eMotion and market fact analysis tools are much more insightful and reliable. What we can see from the chart below is that the markets are in frail shape and still bullish biased (via orange running cash inflow/outflow) - likely to the detriment of those bulls over the short to near-term. Signs of underlying bullishness will likely fight a good fight and remain as markets drop in the future. However, downside breakouts of emotion triggered hard well before the August weakness as can be seen below [4]. Ironically, emotional commitment on this bounce as well as commitment via funds being allocated to equities are mediocre to average at best...also, shown below [3 and 5]. While people may want to assume that the August drop was capitulatory, share directionality [2] and cash withdrawn from markets on daily basis [1] certainly reflect that illusion. These are in fact, more than likely breakouts and signs of much more to come. The reasons for this is the comparative low emotional fear and panic at the recent lows and the low eMotion and commitment to the current bounce. 

mcm Accumulation Index Components

mcm Accumulation Index Components

Note the nearing breakdown below 2009 lows of the mcm Smart-Money Index, the mcm Market Open Index and the mcm Market Close Index. Given the nature of these indexes, they suggest low balances in investor accounts and thus high leverage in the markets and a breakdown could cause dramatic stresses on the markets system as well as the financial system in general.

mcm Indexes and mcm Smart Money Index

mcm Indexes and mcm Smart Money Index

The Invitation

by Oriah - Mountain Dreamer

It doesn’t interest me
what you do for a living.
I want to know
what you ache for
and if you dare to dream
of meeting your heart’s longing.

It doesn’t interest me
how old you are.
I want to know
if you will risk
looking like a fool
for love
for your dream
for the adventure of being alive.

It doesn’t interest me
what planets are
squaring your moon...
I want to know
if you have touched
the centre of your own sorrow
if you have been opened
by life’s betrayals
or have become shrivelled and closed
from fear of further pain.

I want to know
if you can sit with pain
mine or your own
without moving to hide it
or fade it
or fix it.

I want to know
if you can be with joy
mine or your own
if you can dance with wildness
and let the ecstasy fill you
to the tips of your fingers and toes
without cautioning us
to be careful
to be realistic
to remember the limitations
of being human.

It doesn’t interest me
if the story you are telling me
is true.
I want to know if you can
disappoint another
to be true to yourself.
If you can bear
the accusation of betrayal
and not betray your own soul.
If you can be faithless
and therefore trustworthy.

I want to know if you can see Beauty
even when it is not pretty
every day.
And if you can source your own life
from its presence.

I want to know
if you can live with failure
yours and mine
and still stand at the edge of the lake
and shout to the silver of the full moon,
“Yes.”

It doesn’t interest me
to know where you live
or how much money you have.
I want to know if you can get up
after the night of grief and despair
weary and bruised to the bone
and do what needs to be done
to feed the children.

It doesn’t interest me
who you know
or how you came to be here.
I want to know if you will stand
in the centre of the fire
with me
and not shrink back.

It doesn’t interest me
where or what or with whom
you have studied.
I want to know
what sustains you
from the inside
when all else falls away.

I want to know
if you can be alone
with yourself
and if you truly like
the company you keep
in the empty moments.


Our invitation is not nearly so eloquent, however, we invite you to some introspection regarding the markets, your trading and our non-correlated, objective and prescient tool-set. In an effort to increase discussion on the blog, comments to posts and participation in the mcm community we are offering for a short time, an invitation to join us and to learn to see "market things" in a new way, a deeper way, a more authentic, unique and honest way. 

mcm tools are not "see-ers" or random predictors, signals or neural networks that increase your frailty with each step. Every piece in our toolset reinforces the other. An MSP does not track is as useful as that that does because these are true probability analyses - not random guesses regarding the future or its potential. Similarly for emotional extremes with eTick-Tools, these are not lines on a chart but emotional capitulations where market participants are measurably stressed. Reactions at the areas are real and objective points to leverage the conviction and opinions of participants. Its the same with market cycles and our market internals - each look at pieces that no other analysis does in an effort to understand a deeper meaning - perhaps even what the market is like in its most empty moments.

Join Our Community by Clicking this Link - No Fees - No Credit Cards - No Gimmicks and No Unnecessary Commitments

The Bigger Picture – More Chop in a Seemingly Endless Chop

Down 100 points, up 100 points - pretty soon you can be talking about real money. In this market, however, the real money is being lost by market participants unable to grasp the larger direction who are getting stopped out at every centrally planned levitation point or fear-laden drop. So, last weeks lows, from our perspective should have been near the 2040 area - possibly nearer to 2010 - they were short and put in so far a higher low. However, since at mcm our analysis does not really get decisions based on support and resistance or wave counts but rather by implications of eMotions and definable probabilities, it appears that we are now on the reversion trip back into chopsville. It is still possible to get an intermediate short-term drop to test lower levels, but the energy on the downside has been dissipated. Though for the near-term, market movements may be constrained within out 120 point chop zone, probabilities are favoring an early September spike that will most likely not last long. 

August 10th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 10th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

Lots of Bulls, Lots of Fear & Risk Is Still Front and Center

Lots of Elliottwave analysis looking for a very pretty wave 5. From the data, it would appear best assumption regarding wave 5 is truncation. However, it is often in my experience that idealized patterns DO NOT materialize at highs. So, with that, today would need to be a particularly bullish day to keep upward potential alive. Data from this perspective is overridingly bearish. Most potentials that are probable today resolve bearishly into the close as shown below. Yesterday, Gold projection tracked well as posted early in the morning in the lounge, with a 10:30 AM bounce and drop. Today the Gold projection would most likely come into play if the markets were showing continued strength into the 8:00 AM to 9:00 AM area or a bit earlier. There are other considerations which could line up to favor this projection and we will update in the lounge accordingly. If the GOLD MSP were to occur, the outcome for today would be pronounced weakness the whole day and into the close.

However, if the threads of upward potential to want to apply, a downward wave into the cash open is the first sign that the cash session could turn productive.

July 23rd, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

July 23rd, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Market Projections Today – Live vs Memorex

As a review of today's AM probabilities here is our "Live" vs "Memorex" analysis. The proposed market structure was Red Projection, which also coincided with timing windows. There are high probabilities for a sizable overnight drop from 2:00 AM high into a 7:00 AM low tomorrow, however, if that were to play out then tomorrow biases much more significantly up and will likely cause trouble for bears,  short-term - something that we will look at with more complete data later.

Stunning triggers from e-Tick-Tools as well - not shown. If anyone is interested message on Twitter or our support page and we can post them. To me, today's triggers were very interesting and prescient.

To me the most interesting thing about all this work is that it beyond totally blows up the feeling of inadequacy that is the underpinning for the concept of "Random Walk" as related to markets. People who have more fear than curiosity are very likely to come up with either one of two things, brilliant advances or total drivel. Which one is more highly valued by our society is most often very hard to tell. But "random walk" does not apply to markets - which are actually highly structured and predictable.

July 1st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections Live vs Memorex

July 1st, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections Live vs Memorex