Posts

Intraday Projections: Fading Fast

Today promised should be an interesting day. Participation and internals yesterday were horrid. Most buying was done by small trade ticket buyers. Market structure was also sloppy. We tracked intraday MSP extremely well getting an early morning high, and 10:30 AM low a move of over 20 points ES - however, lows should have continued into 1:30 PM. Timing works its magic of course in that the highs of the cash session was 1:24 PM and led to an impulsive decline in the close.

Additionally, e-Tick Tools generated amazing emotional extremes. 93% of emotional extremes lead to 3.25 point ES moves - more than enough to make a nice living. Yesterday's triggers lead to much more than that. The preferred approach is to trade with some running contracts but to book profits incrementally into the average reaction which is around 5 to 7 points. All of our automated trading systems use this convention - using a process called trade reticulation. The biggest problem with most discretionary trading is being enamored with the big large point winners. This is not productive as it leads to consistent losses and large ones at that. The best way to trade is to BOOK PROFIT RELENTLESSLY as my systems do. Yesterday emotional inflection points were triggered, and executable to 16 to 18 points easily - how many trend traders can capture nearly 20 points in a day without taking a few 5 to 7 point losses or worse? BOOK PROFITS - regardless of timeframe - this is the biggest mistake of discretionary traders. 7 points is the diffusion target currently on ES and 7 points is a LOT OF MONEY.

Bias is negative for the AM session versus yesterday's AM session on the daily MSP chart posted earlier in the week - this condition has been fulfilled presently as of the publishing of this article. Overnight session promised chop, and it has delivered. If no early AM bounce appears the most bearish case for today becomes the highest probability [GOLD MSP on chart]. Strength materializes into the open that should be reverse around the open prints into swift weakness. In all cases, watch for 11:30 AM lows and a fairly useless day after that.

From today's lows, wherever they occur, modest positive bias on Daily MSP projections exists into Monday AM. However, next week probabilities turn decently negative after that into midweek.

August 14th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

August 14th, 2015 Intraday Market Structure Projections

Overview of Today’s e-Tick Tools Intense Emotional Extremes

Below is a chart that references the X-Ticks that were discussed in the previous posts. X-Ticks are VERY important events in that they allow a precise measurement and profiling of the energy and emotions being expended in the markets. Today, was a first. Never having traded through a day that generated the single biggest expenditure of BUY energy in all our sample set of the last 15 to 20 years...we got it. The highest amount of BUY energy ever expended in the markets happened today at 2:45 PM. The key with buy energy is that prices MUST stay above that kind of energy expenditure otherwise its aberrant and likely exhaustion/capitulatory. Currently, after hours we just broke the 100% X-Tick at 2068 and immediately dropped 10 ES points. This presents a potentially very serious issue for the markets (Sorry, I mean central bankers) to overcome.

e-Tick-Tools Review - BIG EMOTION today

e-Tick-Tools Review - BIG EMOTION today

X-Ticks and Central Banks – What is Probability Thinking?

They do not make markets like they used to. Price discovery is more like Price delivery. Market sentiment feels more like market cement. People are so used to centrally planned corruption of the markets that the current repercussions are not easy to be believed because there are 257 central bankers pontificating about how they stand ready to provide liquidity that NO ONE WANTS.

In the chart below is a reprise of the current Daily and Weekly MSP. There is no way to assume what may be coming over the weekend or how high that push could be if it were to happen...but Thursday AM into Friday AM is a currently holding probabilities that are pretty weak. Of course, that does not mean they have to happen. But as can be seen from the chart below, the white line is the projection for daily price direction from each AM to AM session. The market has been respecting the general directional probabilities. [1] and [2] are plots into the future from now until Friday AM. There can be lots of volatility, but the base case has not changed, and impulse is down.

It appears the real trouble starts next week...is this week the preamble?

In my experience, MOST analysts miss tops and bottoms because they are looking for too many ideal scenarios and setups. The nice thing about probabilities and data are they are what they are and will simply be wrong or right. But they are not likely to get stuck in the human need for confirmation bias or over thinking.

For reference to the X-Tick activity today that was simply stunning see this post: Overview of Today’s e-Tick Tools Intense Emotional Extremes

For reference, the vertical lines on the chart below represent 9:30 am on a daily basis.

July 7th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections Update

July 7th, 2015 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections Update

Post-Mortem for Today’s MSP work

Today was unusual for a FED day. Volatility was much higher than normal. However, as can easily be reconciled from the enclosed chart. One can not expect much more prescient, accurate and useful data than what we provided today. Against the crowd and common wisdom that today's FED day morning session would be a breakout and continue with strength into the meeting and high expectations for Janet to say something, anything soothing, probabilities once again win out over macro/rational, emotion or opinion.

One of the issues that we seem to be having that I feel is a discrepancy is the incidence of the post-announcement conference/show and tell, tea and cookies, whatever one wants to call it. This event has added new volatility and timing implications and though we do not like to adjust for historical data and will not make any adjustment, it is interesting to note that the afternoon bounce lasted nearly 1 hour longer and this is not the first time this has occurred. All else is highly accurate with the exception of the post announcement meeting.  We do not feel like these events will be continuing for that much longer as the FED is attempting to use them to sell its story. If it's implausible to sell a story, adding an event to do so is a risk more than a benefit. Therefore, it is most likely that these affairs are not permanent.

Below is our MSP  post-mortem.

June 17th, 2015 FED DAY DATA SET Post-Mortem Intraday Market Structure Projections

June 17th, 2015 FED DAY DATA SET Post-Mortem Intraday Market Structure Projections

Additionally, as was posted via the Twitter Feed in real time - the X-Tick emotional capitulatory Xtreme triggers marked the bottoms and both afternoon tops. In addition they set up some serious emotional baggage at these areas. So, between 2094 and 2097.25 is now an area that a lot of buyers capitulated and lost. Below 2097.25 and especially 2094 is advantage bears because of this. If the market can gather the strength to overcome the emotional energy that was exerted and wasted at these areas then bulls get a shot.

June 17th, 2015 FED DAY Post-Mortem e-Tick-Tools

June 17th, 2015 FED DAY Post-Mortem e-Tick-Tools

Why Using Data & Probabilities is Preferred – Yesterday

This post is short and its all about the chart. This shows a great example of how using data and probabilities can create clarity where indicators and emotions create confusion.

June 10th, 2015 Intraday  e-Tick-Tools  Results

June 10th, 2015 Intraday e-Tick-Tools Results

e-Tick Tools Expert Lounge – Live intraday analysis

Not only is eMotional analysis a unique way to look at the market and for high probability entries, but when combined with Gap Tools, Waves/Symmetry and traditional disciplined TA by an experienced analyst...you get to see high probability setups that converge with other elements that make normal probability work look like guess work. This is a chart posted live in the Expert Lounge - which is a community live conversation, sharing and analysis area. Not only do setups like this get identified but also high-quality learning and exchange occurs. This is very valuable for several reasons:

  • It's most likely the best way to learn,
  • Great analysis that is useful, timely and executable.
  • Others ideas also get shared and great questions asked,
  • Feedback from the process is something that we can use in development of enhancements to the process.

If eMotion analysis in real-time strikes as uncorrelated and something that you feel may give you and edge (personally, just look at the chart and I think it's obvious to us it's a significant edge) then you should do a free trial while we are launching the site while its being offered and get to know more about how things work - by working with our exceptional and experienced live analysis talent.

S&P500 Expert Lounge Live Chart Analysis

S&P500 Expert Lounge Live Chart Analysis

Tick Tools Stop Run Potential Triggered in timing window

We are in a timing window as posted earlier. These windows have +/- 1 hour usually. e-Tick Tools just generated a Stop-Run Potential Trigger that suggests a lot of shorts are trapped and that we may get a break over the BUY EXTREME that triggered 20 minutes ago and then pullback. Things to keep in mind... timing area for a high poses risk for further upside. Confirmed Buy Extreme suggests some capitulation on the part of buyers. However, the condition for a stop run are in pace and suggest that if we pop higher could be unpleasant for shorts...till better exhaustion occurs. Sell extreme currently in place is at 2119 and a key level at this moment.

Note, the CYAN line on the price chart is the Accumulation Index and it is making new highs as the market is consolidating - could be another indication of pressure could emerge on near-term short risks.

This is a pretty good, in my opinion, example of using Market Facts/eMotion analysis to support technical analysis.

e-Tick-Tools Stop Run Potential Trigger

e-Tick-Tools Stop Run Potential Trigger

e-Tick Tools Review for the day

Below is the e-Tick-Tools chart for today. (These charts are updated on a daily basis in the Historical Analysis Charts section of our site.)

Quite a day overall and exceptional day for e-Tick-Tools. Emotional analysis of the market is sometimes so prescient that its accuracy surprises even when one comes to expect it. Today was such a day. The daily projection called for an up day from Monday AM to Tuesday AM. Monday is statistically one of the most bullish at this time and all it could yield was 8 points on ES. So, we can count another notch in the belt for the daily market structure projections. Interestingly, tomorrow is projected slightly up or consolidation with an up bias from this morning's lows. I must say, I will not be surprised with the market gaining traction here and getting an up morning thus fulfilling the daily market structure.

However, without commenting on specifics in the markets this is a time that anything can happen. The charts presented on the weekend demonstrate that there is precious little capital to hold the markets up if something goes wrong. Most investors are not doing well and have not for a long time and do not have much in reserve. To do well in the market you need to operate overnight or buy and hold and operate without a concern in the world that something can go wrong...because as they say - this time IS different.

Below is today's overview of e-Tick-Tools analysis. Also, note a basic view of Gap Tools is also displayed. Gap Tools posts Gap probabilities after the first 60 seconds of the market open...so gap info was generated at 9:31 am. Since the site is new we wanted to spend extra effort to post educational content regarding some of our work. Hence the fairly significant number of posts over the last days. The objective of the blog is not to post with such high frequency. However, markets are at an interesting point. In addition, we wanted to meeting the public with some extra effort applied to sharing things we think are important.  We hope for a long and fruitful relationship with our clients and readers.

May 26th, 2015 eTick-Tools-Day Review

May 26th, 2015 eTick-Tools-Day Review

e-Tick Tools Today…example of Real-Time market eMotion analysis

This is what e-Tick Tools saw today at the open. A bearish stop run RAID of longs warned with text on the screen. A Broken confirmed selling capitulation - which usually means bulls lose. An X-Tick at the time window low and Gap indications in the first minute showing that gap was likely to extend...and fill was not likely...

We know of no other charts that can show the same kind of analysis in real time

Tick Tools Today May 26, 2015 - What our clients saw

Tick Tools Today May 26, 2015 - What our clients saw