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Immediate Future is NOT favorable for BULLS

This is a quick post to show a variety of MSP charts. All of which point to the immediate area and immediate timing is the beginning of an episode that lasts for several months. There course will be bounces in this decline from our present inflection point. Towards the end of January and towards the end of February or two points to look for bounces in a larger rally in March. Meanwhile, back to business at hand, below are charts of the current detail and close up view for the S&P500, also some overview that shows a preponderance of probability also converging presently as per totally independently calculated MSP for the DAX and Russell 2000.

Happy New Year and wishing you a healthy, happy, safe and prosperous 2016.

Daily/Weekly MSP Close up for S&P500

Daily/Weekly MSP Close up for S&P500

Daily/Weekly MSP German DAX

Daily/Weekly MSP German DAX

Daily/Weekly MSP Russell 2000

Daily/Weekly MSP Russell 2000

 

Projections for Bounce Sometime Next Week in DAX

The DAX market has tracked MSP well and is looking for an interim balance into Christmas starting sometime next week. As has been posted throughout these pages by breaking below extremely strong capitulatory emotional selling extremes (X-Ticks) via eTickTools on a pervasive basis the markets triggered behavior unlike any that we have seen since before the August crash - putting it at potentially grave risk. IF NO BOUNCE OCCURS NEXT WEEK THEN THE IMPLICATIONS ARE DIRE. This has serious implications for the US markets as well as the DAX tends to lead the US equity markets and S&P500. It is, therefore, with the most concern and hope that we look for the markets to reward the low liquidity seasonality into Christmas with a win. However, the negatives are also pervasive in that NO analyst we see is really looking at anything other than upward triangles, falling wedges and wave 4's. We do not believe the equity market as a whole will be seeing new highs anytime soon - contrary to the very bullish general expectations it seems in the analyst space.

DAX Market Structrue Projection

DAX Market Structure Projection

DAX Initial Down Move into January Begins

As with US equities. Mid-December is key for the DAX market as well. Downward pressures amid the seemingly omnipresent bullishness surrounding the Santa Claus rally have not only appeared for equities and bonds as we have projected on these pages, but also for the DAX. The DAX is likely entering a much stronger downplays than the US equity markets in that initial phase appears to have kicked off, which will you yield to some sort of bounce towards the end of January. Downward pressures. Overall next year for the DAX appeared much stronger and persistent then for the US markets. In the meantime. As with the US markets they bounce into Christmas from the middle December likely. However, diverging from the US markets be aware that there is significant potential for a very weak last week of the year.

DAX Market Structure {Projection

DAX Market Structure {Projection

Updated Projections and Detail Regarding MSP

In this article, we publish updates to the various MSP charts presented on these pages recently. As mentioned previously, there was a bug fix which corrected the significant misplacement of certain MSP points under certain conditions. The comparison and analysis demonstrating this problem is shown below at the bottom of this article. The result of this discrepancy is that the incorrect MSP did not track, but the correct MSP tract as well as one could possibly want. With that, the corrected MSP is showing an inflection point of this week for the S&P 500. Not only that it is showing inflection points potentially building up for the DAX and the bond market. The bond market rally seems to have been a very foreign concept. However, market structure projection got it right so far. Keep in mind, that the most sophisticated work we have done related to the equity indexes and market structure projection is being expanded to many other products - this is a process.

One of the interesting things is that copper and gold, which had a high pressure for a turn in November have not tracked and diverged significantly from their projected behavior. This indicates that something else may be going on, and caution is warranted. In either case, the high probability area for gold to launch a sustained rally appears likely in January.

S&P500 Market Structure Projection

S&P500 Market Structure Projection

US Bonds Market structure Projection

US Bonds Market structure Projection

DAX Market Structure Projection

DAX Market Structure Projection

Detailed comparison of Incorrect MSP versus corrected bug fix

Detailed comparison of incorrect MSP versus corrected bug fix

Stair Step Down Likely Begun for DAX into March 2016

Not only has risk shifted for the US equity markets, but European equity markets like the DAX and the EUROSTOXX50 have also begun stairstep down patterns. This implies rallies will be to lower highs drops will be to lower lows within an overall larger downtrend. From the appearance of things the situation should remain intact until March 2016. With the largest declines for the DAX coming in December. This analyst also expects a shockingly difficult December for the US stock markets is the Santa Claus effect is likely to be muted at the very least. The DAX market structure projections can be seen in this chart have been highly prescient, with general timing,  direction and weakness suggested into the end of the month which could become severe for the index. The possibility includes a lower low below August lows being a not insignificant probability. This event would imply a breach of August lows for other European markets, and quite possibly US markets.

As mentioned regarding the US markets, if treasuries begin a rally and exceed the August highs, then it would not be surprising to the US indexes below or at the August lows.

DAX Daily and Weekly Market Structure Projection

DAX Daily and Weekly Market Structure Projection

DAX – Tick Tools Show the Way in a near 500 Point Drop

Yesterday was a horrid day for DAX. It went up in the morning, when the futures opened and surpassed the 10.000 mark. Actual high was 10.019. And from there it went in a vicious decline to put in a daily low at 9.559. That’s 460 points in just one day!

Now anyone with access to the tools would have been forewarned to pay attention when it counted - at the 10.000 mark. As can be seen, 10.000 was highlighted with a buy X-treme and an X-tick to boot (on v-tick chart). When the market made the high above 10.000, a capitulation bar appeared. Now that’s a dangerous triple combo. And when the market reversed without the moving average getting a chance to get above that buy X, it was a clear sign that market was putting in an important pivot there.

Yet another sign to be cautious on the long side was that the market was still impulsing down on the 15-min and 60-min cycle - from the 10.100 area. And the 60min chart showed a bearish retracement signal at 10.019, which was the high of the day.

Just a regular day in the life of the dax tick tools...

vtick

V-tick chart

60min

60min chart

15min

15 Minute Cycle Chart

“Nightmare on Wall Street”? Projections Suggest Highly Negative Period Dead Ahead

As discussed on these pages for months, the week of the 21st was likely to be a lower high and also likely to open up a pronounced period of weakness. The projection turn-window appears to have been left-translated - meaning occurring early in the timing window rather than middle or later regions of it. There is still a relatively low possibility the market can try to hold up into sometime next week, however, on a short term basis MSP suggests market stabilization or even bounce attempt into early Monday morning but that overall session into the cash close should have higher than normal bias toward weak price action  If such a scenario is the case, it would likely be difficult for the market to recover from, which is why it is most likely that a left translated turn has occurred. When we made suggestions relating to this structure, it was well before the market's initial foray into August 24th lows and knowledge of how strong an expected drop into the area of August 21st would be. We had expected significant weakness into the 21st, but not particularly a crash - but nonetheless the tool-set and resources and guidance at mcm was exemplary and conservative.

As implied by the mcm data (many charts posted on these pages), the drop into August 24th was NOT a bottom or even capitulatory - it was a more likely breakout to the downside. Almost all of our systems have switched to a bear market bias after being bull market biased since 2011 and primarily looking for long during this period. NOW THEY ARE FOCUSED ON SELLING STRENGTH and sold the recent bounce into the MSP reversal timing. What is now suggested via market structure projection is what could become an extended period (3 to 4 weeks) of pronounced weakness into October with high probability that the August 24th lows are breached - most likely significantly. As the European markets are leading this decline we are presenting the MSP picture via the DAX - but the S&P500 picture is very similar. Please note, that a break of the 1820 on the S&P500 cash could open the floodgates if it so wishes and bring into focus targets from the 1680's to 1620's. The area below 1820 has quite limited and thin support and does not see more solid potential until the 1600's somewhere. Either way this is NOT your grandmother's market it's a liquidity trap of epic proportions, so, regardless of projections or any other trading approach, great care is currently warranted.

DAX Daily Daily and Weekly Market Structure Projections

DAX Daily and Weekly Market Structure Projections

Being aware of the pronounced risk potential ahead, we have done several webinars to present methods to effectively and objectively participate in what can become violent maneuvers ahead. In that light we did a seminar on more details regarding impulse trading and handling of violence in the markets. It was a long webinar, but we think pretty effective in communicating and transmitting learning and some techniques that we feel can help overcome emotional stresses and haphazard risk-taking. We invite you to watch the recording of the event at: Click here for the videoThe video is free and we hope you may find it of value. We would like to thank the people who spent time with us this weekend and look forward to scheduling another event at some point in the not distant future.

Major and minor updates to eTickTools

Lots of Stuff and Projection Update

This weekend we completed a major upgrade of charts and chart streaming for the mcm site. We added significant new enhancements to the eTickTools Project and we rolled out some new analyses - Historical eMotional Extremes.

From a housekeeping standpoint we will bullet-point the list.

  • Fixed Cycle Display and Markers on 5-Minute chart
  • Fixed Scaling issue on 1 and 2-minute charts
  • Addressed the printing of a double "potential stop-run" when triggering at the open for eTickTools
  • Added Percentile Ranking for each buy and sell-extreme for eTickTools - this is a big deal
  • Added a Ranking for the volume extreme taking place during a Buy or Sell extreme for eTickTools
  • Added auto updating Historical Extreme Charts for both the S&P500 and DOW
  • Added an alpha toolset for DAX that is just in testing phase
  • Added various other general clean-ups and labelling for tools and charts

The additions of rankings to all the eTickTools extremes is a significant enhancement and allows an unprecedented and high quality of gauge of the amount of effort the market is exerting at a specific capitulation point. The addition or a ranking of the amount of transaction at the point is also a significant enhancement. We encourage you to ask questions regarding any of the enhancements.

Major and minor updates to eTickTools

Major and minor updates to eTickTools

Regarding the markets, Daily/Weekly market structure projection has suggested that a consolidation after the projected bounce during the 1st week of September occurred. This is indeed appearing to be playing out. Markets are very bearish and people are very scared which could contribute to a pause in down movement and leads to strength into the week of the 21st. It needs to be made clear that these are contextual time ranges. If you have been reading these pages, you now doubt know that week 1 of September has been viewed referred to as potentially important point for the markets and as such could be a significant turn from an up move to down to new lows or in the more likely case, a down move that comes in the form of a period of consolidation for further highs into the week of the 21st. Additionally, note that MSP was correctly projecting weekly weakness into Thursday, August 20th. However, the turn from down to up did not come during Thursday's day session as projected but rather 9:30 AM on Monday - 1.5 sessions away. It seems to us that a projection made several months ago for a down week into Thursday the 20th being met to within 12.5 cash trading hours is about as accurate as one can reasonably expect during a market dislocation and certainly more accurate than most wave extrapolations and technical analysis would usually be able to be with any reliability. This condition resulted in needed in to rely on shorter term tools: eTickTools and Cycle Impulses for example. We did a webinar on these subject (http://mcm-ct.com/blog/webinar-follow-up-and-content/) and plan another because in the coming markets impulsing beyond emotional extremes and through cycle supports is a key tool that can objectively help to remain on the right side of a market even when the desire of a trader are to take the opposite direction - such as buying weakness when in fact an impulsive move downwards may just be beginning.

As such, eTickTools did an exemplary job of pointing out that the markets were likely under a severe capitulation by triggering multiple X-Tick downward selling impulses during that Thursday's session.  We made this post wich is a good reference: Market Consciousnesses – Running Through a Flux Capacitor. Indeed, the markets have been rushing back through time and retracing the gains of the last years. The danger continues to be high, though for the time being abated somewhat.

DAX Market Structure Projections

DAX Market Structure Projections

Below is an updated chart of the Longer-term MSP (Projections) for the S&P500. With the DAX suggesting a shallower pullback, edge is increased that probability of consolidative behavior for S&P500 is increased into strength into [5] on the chart below. This chart is suggesting a period of consolidation/weakness and then a push into the long referred to week of Sept 21st.

S&P500 Market Structure Projections

S&P500 Market Structure Projections

Projections Suggest a Significant Turn in September

It has been a wild week or so. We have been asked often recently regarding short-term MSP and why we have not been publishing. The question has been more-or-less: "has the effort of publishing this data ended and is that why short-term MSP has not been published". While it is correct that this data takes a lot of effort to build and is not principally created for the general public - this is NOT the reason that we have not published these data. The reason is that when the markets become as volatile and emotional as they have been, the best thing to focus on is the larger picture and the fundamental near-term emotion and price movements of the markets. Sometimes it takes a few days for the markets to overshoot - which seems to be the case curgently. Markets may be in an altered state of reality...we have been referring to the market being on "METH" the last week or so in the "Lounge". Therefore, we have felt that short-term market structure is more of a distraction then needed and only been referring to it judiciously as it points to highly probable data point inflections and probabilities.

So, what is the bigger picture? It appears that there is a tremendous amount of coincidence pointing to the 3rd and 4th weeks of September. In Gold, the US Dollar, Oil, the Dax, EuroStoxx 50, S&P500 etc...all have confidence for a probability for  a risk reversal in the mid - to latter part of the month into the end of October. Ironically, for risk assets - despite the anarchy going on in the world - there seems to be a predominant bias for a bid in the markets into this coming week - most probably mid weekish. A reaction from these areas are to be most interesting. Some charts have broken down into potential downward impulses and these patterns would usually imply a retest of the breakdown area - which coordinates with the levels charts on the SPX cash posted earlier - suggesting a retest of 2010 at the very low end and up to 2090 on the high-end. 2045 to 2060 SPX cash seem like a serious area to watch. But these price levels have nothing to do with MSP and are just educated guesses.

Another element arguing for further time for upside is that the normal up wave for a 60-minute bar calculated wave is around 155 hours. This would fit well with mid-week. However, given the veracity of the move down a bit more time could be required additionally.

Below are some updates to the MSP charts that cover this probability scenario:

August 30th, 2015 S&P500 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 S&P500 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 DAX Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 DAX Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 EUROStoxx 50 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 EUROStoxx 50 Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 Oil Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 Oil Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 GOLD Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

August 30th, 2015 GOLD Daily & Weekly Market Structure Projections

Support and MSP for What appears to be a Pivotal Week Coming Up

With the obvious situation impacting the world of total disintegration of central bank cooperation - to expected effect, we now have the addition of extremely high pressure on Chinese investment firms and institutions to sell everything that is not glued down and that is NOT a Chinese asset. If they can not sell a Chinese asset or share without going to jail the next best thing is to apparently blow it up and also to sell non-domestic assets - such as US stocks, European Stocks and anything else that is not glued down that the Chinese officials will not arrest them for. If this capitulation is to continue things can get very messy indeed. But before we throw out the baby with the bath water, let's take a look at what the markets would be expected to do if the third transaction type for fund managers were not "BLOW IT UP".

DAX and Euro Stoxx are at inflection points and can start a large rally and by the looks of things, would potentially be very painful for shorts. Longs are already in pain and it seems they need to sell too just so the pain is shared more equitably. Funny how that is centrally planned. But in any case, there appear to be quite a lot of influences coming up that imply a convergence to the upside that by the looks of things could be swift. IF we can not get the hint of some traction to this structure, then it should be apparent that the brakes are not working and likely the ground is moving which could imply a "crash". Crashes are rare, even though this feels like a crash already, nonetheless, the urge to get emotionally involved in a crash is not usually a highly rewarding one and caution is warranted. It is common for us to stress that most money earned from trading is not on huge winning trades but on normal base hits. We have worked very hard to increase the odds on base hits and to be open to larger trades when they happen. We also have worked hard to developed tools and approaches to handle a crash or very powerful trend. However, it must be restated that smart and judicious trading is far more rewarding than big winners followed by a string of many losses of arbitrary size - usually larger than the large winners, though. This is why we can not overstate that the potential of this change in psychology in the markets will take more than a few days and the opportunity has not even started yet...patience and restraint are highly rewarded. Buying multimillion dollar jet planes before you've closed what appear to be gigantic winning trades is equally unrewarding. So, in all the lessons we can reinforce, patience, discipline, and clarity is key NOW.

Below are various charts that may help put some perspective on where the market is standing. On the Historical eTickTools Emotional Extremes - Support and Resistance Chart note, that one fo the objective is to show thin zones and also to show areas of congestion. Brighter or more intense colors indicate stronger influence, Light colors indicate previous resistances and darker colors are previous supports.

Historical eTickTools Emotional Extremes - Support and Resistance

Historical eTickTools Emotional Extremes - Support and Resistance

DAX Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

DAX Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Euro Stoxx 50 - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Euro Stoxx 50 - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Oil - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

Oil - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

US Dollar - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections

US Dollar - Daily And Weekly Market Structure Projections